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About nmigliore

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    A Legend
  • Birthday 03/19/1991

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    New Jersey
  • Interests
    Devils hockey, Mets baseball

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  1. New York Mets 2016-2017 Offseason Thread

    Yeah I don't think the Mets need to "force" themselves to get McCutchen. I have a feeling they'll move Bruce, go with the current group, and reevaluate the situation in June and July. By then, they'll have a better grasp on Conforto as starter, how Granderson's aging body is holding up in CF, etc. I still don't find that ideal but you could certainly argue it's better than going for broke with McCutchen, who is obviously going to cost a lot and has some questions hanging over his head.
  2. New York Mets 2016-2017 Offseason Thread

    Well the unfair thing about looking at McCutchen's WAR totals the last handful of years is that virtually nobody can maintain 7- and 8-WAR paces season after season (unless you're Mike Trout or Clayton Kershaw). He was still an elite player in 2014 and 2015 and his batting numbers were pretty consistent in those years (he actually had a higher wRC+ in 2014 than 2013). Last season his defense basically crashed and burned while the bat fell off in every category - the normally-elite BABIP dropped, strikeouts up, power and walks down. He only stole 6 bases as well, a career-low. The core batting numbers just smell fluky to me and I think he bounces back there; maybe not to 2013-2015 levels, but still really good. The defense and base-stealing, I'd be less certain. He is 30 years old after all and there were signs in 2014 and 2015 that he was declining in those areas. Steamer projects him for .283/.378/.470 (129 wRC+) with < 10 stolen bases and poor defense again; that seems about right to me, although I think I'd take the over on the bat. Anyway, that's still enough to make him a 3.5 WAR player; not elite, but still quite good.
  3. New York Mets 2016-2017 Offseason Thread

    Considering his age and past season, McCutchen worries me a bit for a guy that is going to cost a lot, but there's no doubting he would help alleviate our current roster issues - 1) you're getting a real CF, 2) you're helping clear the corner OF logjam since Conforto would certainly be a part of the pieces going back to Pittsburgh, and 3) although not as critical as the first two, you're getting less lefty-heavy. You still have to trade Bruce in a separate move to complete the overhaul, but as I've said before, I don't think that'll be too difficult as long as we have low (aka realistic) expectations of what he's bringing back.
  4. 2016 NFL Regular Season Thread

    The Phins fans here are going to really hate me when I say this but they really haven't looked like a playoff team, regardless of who the QB is. Their post-bye schedule has been really soft - Jets twice, Chargers, Rams, 49ers, Cardinals - and outside of this most recent game against the Jets, they've won by a TD or less against each of those teams. They did beat the Steelers at home in Week 6 but they've lost to every other competitive team on their schedule. They kind of feel like the Lions of the AFC - it hasn't always been pretty but somehow they sit 9-5. I think just getting into the playoffs should feel like a win (especially with the current QB situation); anything else from there would be gravy.
  5. New York Mets 2016-2017 Offseason Thread

    Ramos may not even be ready for the start of the season. I bet he ends up taking a 1 year pillow deal to reestablish his value with an AL team where he can split duties between catcher and DH. I would be frightened to take a chance on him if I were an NL team.
  6. New York Mets 2016-2017 Offseason Thread

    Almost no chance Washington doesn't acquire McCutchen now, right? Hard to imagine them flubbing 2 splashy moves like that.
  7. New York Mets 2016-2017 Offseason Thread

    Ramos is a free agent and the Nats just traded for Derek Norris so a reunion doesn't seem too likely, IMO.
  8. New York Mets 2016-2017 Offseason Thread

    I would've rather have seen them get McCutchen who is coming off a pretty poor season. He'll probably bounce back but it's not like last season *didn't* happen, he's over 30, and the 2015 version of McCutchen probably isn't coming back either way. There's always the injury potential with a pitcher but Sale definitely makes the Nats better than McCutchen would have.
  9. New York Mets 2016-2017 Offseason Thread

    Speaking of catchers... the D-Backs shockingly non-tendered catcher Welington Castillo. I'd be all over him if I were Sandy but I bet they won't be ("we're content with d'Arnaud/Rivera!"). Surprised they couldn't trade him, he definitely had some value.
  10. New York Mets 2016-2017 Offseason Thread

    I'm not at all surprised teams like Granderson more. Their remaining contracts are close to a wash (1/13 for Bruce, 1/16 for Granderson) and it's really not even close to who has performed better over the last 2 seasons: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=9892,4747 Teams are smart and see Bruce for what he is: a one-dimensional player whose a big negative in the field and has sucked at the plate in 2.5 out of the last 3 seasons. Granderson is at least a capable corner outfielder defensively, who can be plugged in CF in a pinch, and comes with a solid floor at the plate due to his walk/power combo. It also doesn't hurt that he's a major clubhouse presence guy (yeah, I said it). That doesn't mean the Mets won't be able to trade Bruce; I can pretty easily see some AL team wanting to plug their OF/DH hole while not committing or yielding much in return, but that's just it - the Mets won't be getting much of anything in return, it'll be a pure salary dump.
  11. New York Mets 2016-2017 Offseason Thread

    Trading two outfielders would definitely make more sense from roster construction standpoint - by moving just one, the team still doesn't have an actual CF, but by moving two, you suddenly have room to bring in a real CF. But who would that be? They almost certainly aren't moving both to plop Lagares in CF. Bruce would be a pure salary dump, Granderson much less so, but I don't think you're getting back a starting CF for either of them. Conforto is the more attractive trade chip if you go down that route (Dave Cameron of Fangraphs reviewed this precise scenario here). Would they consider signing Fowler with the salary savings? I have to say, the trade-off of Bruce and Granderson for Fowler is pretty attractive - the outfield logjam would be cleared, the lefty-heaviness mitigated, the outfield defensive scheme no longer worrisome, and the Mets would probably even come out ahead in wins with that swap (plus you're getting somethings back for Granderson and Bruce).
  12. New York Mets 2016-2017 Offseason Thread

    Fangraphs' Depth Chart projections have this team at 84 wins as currently constructed (Nats are at 88 for reference), but they expect the Mets to get zilch out of Wright (which may be fair) and the projections on Granderson, Cabrera, and Cespedes all seem a bit light. That trio combined for +8.8 WAR last season despite a banged up, 132-game output from Cespedes; the projections peg them for +5.3 in 2017. It's fair to reason that Granderson and Cabrera will regress given their ages, but projecting them to be worth a combined +2.4 WAR seems pretty pessimistic in my eyes. They'd also gain about a win just by dumping Bruce and replacing him with Conforto, so I see them closer to maybe 86-88 wins. The outfield defense will probably be ugly again unless the Mets go out and make two outfielder trades (I doubt it), but for me, the main priority at this point should be jettisoning Bruce and fortifying the bullpen a bit. I still stand by the idea of Steve Pearce for the bench and it would be nice to find a catcher, but they'll probably give d'Arnaud one more go at it.
  13. New York Mets 2016-2017 Offseason Thread

    Tremendous news! Seems like both parties found a happy medium with supplying a higher AAV in exchange for not going 5 years. Either way, we NEEDED to resign him so this is awesome! Now it's time to make Jay Bruce go away. Conforto is younger, a better defensive player, cheaper, and so on. I would hate to see the Mets sell low on Conforto and keep Bruce. Dump him for whatever and sign Steve Pearce. Pearce would be a great fit here - he can serve as much-needed platoon partner for Conforto and Duda while also serving as an insurance policy if Conforto flops (I'd bet against that - Conforto still managed an .800+ OPS vs RHP last season) or if we get hit by injuries again.
  14. New York Mets 2016-2017 Offseason Thread

    Yeah, I can totally see a scenario where the Mets reacquire him at the deadline if they need a back-end starter due to injury/ineffectiveness. To a somewhat lesser extent, this situation played out last season with Kelly Johnson. This goes without saying really but Colon is definitely one of the wonders of baseball at this point considering his velocity, pitch tendencies, age, weight, etc. It just feels like a package that is destined to explode with an injury or getting destroyed at some point, but who knows when that will happen. You can tell me April 2017 or never and I'd believe both. If he can maintain being the Big Sexy that we've come to know and love the past few years, and we have the need in July, I'd be happy to bring him back. But at least the Mets aren't taking the gamble of $12M+ blowing up in their face. They have far more pressing needs to throw that kind of money at. It just makes too much sense to ride one of the young guys like Gsellman for a fraction of the cost.
  15. New York Mets 2016-2017 Offseason Thread

    Love getting Walker back on the QO; perfect outcome for the Mets, in my opinion. Gonna suck to see Big Sexy in a Braves uniform - not because of the talent swing but just sentimental feelings. I'd be surprised if Mets fans boo him when he visits Citi Field for the first time... he was too likeable. I'm keeping my fingers crossed this team finds a way to get rid of Bruce and bring back Cespedes.