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About nmigliore

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  • Birthday 03/19/1991

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  • Location
    New Jersey
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    Devils hockey, Mets baseball

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  1. New York Mets 2016 Season Thread

    Yeah but those "sabes" aren't too good themselves and certainly nowhere near Harvey's usual levels. Once you account for the league and home park adjustments, his FIP and xFIP grade out 11% and 6% below average, respectively. Prior to this season, his career FIP and xFIP graded out 31% and 21% above average. He's clearly a different guy, even beyond the actual versus expected results debate.
  2. New York Mets 2016 Season Thread

    Wish it weren't against the Mets, but I'm actually excited to see Urias pitch. Kid has just dominated at every stop despite being super young relative to his competition.
  3. New York Mets 2016 Season Thread

    Harvey isn't going to the minors. If anything, it'll be one of those dead arm DL stints, the kind where an established but struggling player saves some face instead of being thrown under the bus by his organization.
  4. New York Mets 2016 Season Thread

    I'm not in the LEAST bit surprised Plawecki has stunk. There was absolutely nothing there to suggest he would hit. His career AAA slash line is below average and his best offensive tool (making contact) hasn't translated over to the Majors. He's a good pitch-framer but if he doesn't start making more contact, he's destined for the journeyman catcher path. The Mets would be better with Rivera getting more time behind the plate, unfortunately.
  5. New York Mets 2016 Season Thread

    Barring a catastrophic injury, Yo! is totally going to be opting out. And he'll get paid this time around.
  6. New York Mets 2016 Season Thread

    A few folks on Twitter have brought him up and I (very sadly) agree. I think he'll be a Met shortly. I much rather stick it out with the above Conforto idea, but it's probably not realistic. Dario Alvarez was DFA'd to make room for Ty Kelly, who is coming up in Duda's roster place.
  7. New York Mets 2016 Season Thread

    I actually like the idea of Conforto at 1B with de Aza/Lagares in CF (Cespedes and Grandy on the corners). He has no experience there, but hell, that's probably the optimal offensive (and arguably defensive) unit you can run out there with this current group. Smith shouldn't even be in the conversation. He's barely holding his own in AA right now.
  8. New York Mets 2016 Season Thread

    You may not like Duda's skillset but that's besides the point (right now). The problem is that the replacements behind him -- Flores, Campbell, and so forth -- are horrendous options at 1B. They are replacement level players or worse at that position. Duda isn't some star by any means, but like I said, he's at worst an average regular, and the drop down from that to replacement level is about 2 wins. If you value Duda more than that (he's been a +3 win player each of the last two seasons), then it's more like a 3-win downgrade. Either way, it's very problematic - the Mets can't afford to be giving away wins like that; the value of even a single win added or lost is significant to this team. This is why I hope the Mets aren't picky at the deadline, assuming things don't fall apart by then. There is a time and place to be aggressive in adding extra wins and the Mets are at that segment of the win curve.
  9. New York Mets 2016 Season Thread

    Kind of a random note here, but kudos to the bullpen so far. Familia, Reed, and Robles have all been excellent. Bastardo is doing his usual thing - lots of strikeouts, lots of walks, and outperforming his underlying numbers. Henderson and Blevins have been good. You probably wouldn't have guessed it, but the Mets' bullpen leads MLB in ERA and FIP. They're 4th in xFIP. The only change I would make right now is flipping Verrett for Gilmartin. It's not really a big deal since we're talking about a guy who is, by far, getting the lowest leverage innings in the 'pen, but Verrett's peripherals are trending in the wrong direction. Gilmartin, meanwhile, has 60+ very productive MLB innings to his name (with no platoon split) and has even pitched quite well as a starter in Vegas.
  10. New York Mets 2016 Season Thread

    Losing Duda for a significant amount of time would be very hurtful. He may not be a fan favorite here but he's at worst a league average player, so dropping down from him to a replacement level scrub like Flores or Campbell is a like 2- or 3-win loss over a full season. The Mets would absolutely need a replacement from outside the organization.
  11. New York Mets 2016 Season Thread

    Maybe it's because I'm an avid angler, but I like Bullheads. Binghamton Bullheads also rolls off the tongue easy (and I totally don't mean for that to be a sexual innuendo).
  12. New York Mets 2016 Season Thread

    Was at the game last night, first trip to Citi this year. Felt more like a mid-April game night game than mid-May, ugh. I really can't ever catch a break with weather in April/May games. I was in the second deck in LF; off the bat I thought for a slight second that Cespedes ball would get to me. I know the strikeouts are driving people up a wall but I still think Wright can contribute offensively. I think the bigger issues are the defense, which is really bottoming out with his age and chronic back problem, and -- although this isn't Wright's fault -- the Mets have terrible backup plans for him. Neither player is hitting this year, but this would've been an ideal season to have a veteran like Juan Uribe or Kelly Johnson on the roster again - someone you can plug in at 3B and not be a zero at the plate. If Wright's offense continues to dip, maybe they look into Martin Prado, assuming the Marlins fade away. More likely, they'll probably be in the market for this year's version of Juan Uribe/Kelly Johnson. They really need a catcher, though. Plawecki's carrying offensive tool was his ability to make contact in the minors but that hasn't translated at all against big league pitchers, which makes him useless offensively.
  13. New York Mets 2016 Season Thread

    More importantly for trade value purposes, Ynoa's stuff also isn't very good. Maybe he's moved for middle relief help, but that's about all I can see him bringing back at this point. Kudos to Bowman so far. He's only thrown 15 low leverage innings, but hey, that's not his fault -- the peripherals have been good. Maybe there's enough there for a middle innings reliever.
  14. New York Mets 2016 Season Thread

    Even if these guys looked like their 2015-selves, performance- and velocity-wise, this would still be accurate. Pitchers eventually break - that's why they do. Despite the constant monitoring of pitch counts and innings, nobody has really figured out how to keep pitchers healthy. This is also why I never get too worked up over the [insert current ace] extension talks; by the time these guys are ready to walk in free agency, they're damaged goods and typically not worth the huge investments. This is also why, during each team's rebuild over the last 3+ years, the more analytic folk have been pushing the Cubs as having the stronger foundation since they are built around position players.
  15. New York Mets 2016 Season Thread

    After a nice upward trend, looks like deGrom's fell back down again yesterday, below even Opening Day levels. Harvey's velocity graph by start is up and down (he averages 95 one start and then 92-93 the next). So odd. Have to wonder how much last season's deep playoff run is affecting their arms.