Hi, I'm VALUE!

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Hi, I'm VALUE! last won the day on September 7 2016

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  1. Franchise tag decisions are expected to be finalized by today. I don't expect Miami to franchise anyone (their only close candidate is Stills and we've already discussed that he's not worth franchise-tag-caliber money) though they may transition tag Stills as they did Vernon last year. One thing that is notable for Miami is that Dont'a Hightower is not expected to get franchise tagged by the Patriots. Not only will you strengthen a position of weakness (linebacker), but you'll weaken a division rival that you're chasing in the standings. Hightower is both a great cover linebacker and a great run-stopping linebacker AND he can get to the quarterback, and he's turning 27 when Free Agency opens. His only knock is that he missed a few games last year due to injuries to his meniscus and shoulder. Assuming Alonso is moving to the weak side, you bring him into Miami to run the middle of the defense then draft the other strong-side linebacker with a draft pick or sign a two-down "thumper" to play the strong side (who will come cheaper than your average linebacker). Not sure if @Colorado Rockies 1976 has any other thoughts on Hightower beyond the above - to me it seems like the physical tools are there, but there's a question of health. Overall, Miami probably has the cap room to take on two big free agents if they get creative with the contracts, but they also might be better off making the splash on the second wave of free agency, getting multiple quality veterans that will not require major cap commitments. I kind of think they'll go that way with Wide Receiver if Stills walks, treating Parker/Landry/Caarroo as the top 3 and bringing in a 4th to compete with Caarroo and/or play when someone gets hurt.
  2. An update on Stills - reports out of Miami Herald suggest that Stills is "already in the $12m a year range". That would put him at 4/48 or 5/60, give or take. I wouldn't mind a 4/48 if we can make the cap number work - though it sounds like the Eagles are ready to put on the full court press for Stills. The Herald is also pessimistic that Stills will be resigned at that price, so hopefully there's a replacement at the ready and not Leonte Caarroo (sp?).
  3. One of the positions that's theoretically deep in free agency is guard. I would not be surprised to see Miami pay big for 26 year old Kevin Zeiter (~6 million per over 5 years). TJ Lang is another free agent option, though at 29 I would be far less comfortable with a big contract. There's also Ron Leary, who's basically been priced out of Dallas' backup range. Signing one of these guys and then maybe having a competition for the fifth spot with a retread on a prove-it deal and a rookie mid-round pick would be ideal. Bushrod will not be back, and the rest of the options at guard for Miami are not thrilling. With tons of cap room, someone is going to get overpaid by Miami. Could be Stills, or it could be an incoming free agent - I expect Miami to be at the forefront of the market for guys like Zeiter, Trumaine Johnson, Lawrence Timmons, Melvin Ingram, Don'ta Hightower, and/or Chandler Jones (assuming any of them avoid the franchise tag). And if they lose Stills, expect the Alshon Jeffrey and DeSean Jackson rumors to start swirling. Not that any of these signings are necessarily right or wrong - I've got varying opinions on the different names above - but with "win-now" the new expectations, tons of cap room, and tons of defensive needs, any defensive FA worth their salt will probably be listening to Miami's pitches. IMO, they need, at least: 1 ILB, 1 OLB, 1 DE/DT (out of the 3 previous positions, at least one needs to be a pass rusher), 1 CB, 1 OG, possibly 1 WR, and depending on how Abdul-Qaddus recovers from his IR stint, a free safety. It would also help if Jordan Phillips can fulfill his potential - right now he's the likely starter next to Suh next year. The intriguing thing to me that the Thomas deal does is it makes Miami's 1st round pick more flexible. Many MANY people were tying them to Alabama TE OJ Howard, and that still may be the case - but now Miami can draft both on need and BPA, maybe getting something like a falling first rounder or filling a future need (Taco Charlton as a future pass-rusher or one of the 2nd level of cornerbacks available in the draft.)
  4. Appears to be Jacksonville. There's a LOT of Albert for Julius Thomas trade talk right now.
  5. I don't get the Mitchell cut, but maybe Miami knows something I don't. Also, per the Miami Herald Albert has NOT been released. They may try and find a trade partner.
  6. On the topic of a Landry extension, the Palm Beach Post opines that the Doug Baldwin's 4/46/24.5 contract extension might be a good model fit, while they believe Landry might see himself as more of a Demariyus Thomas/AJ Green player in the $14 million mold. This will be an interesting contract that hopefully gets resolved right after the current FAs are resolved, but hopefully Landry is a Dolphin for a long time. There's a lot of Steve Smith Sr. in him.
  7. I don't know, this could be a goof on the NFL too. Did Sherman miss ANY practice this year because of his knee? I think the answer is no. Did Sherman ever have the team treat his knee? Again, I suspect the answer is no, but that's something the league has to confirm with the trainers of the Seahawks. If Sherman played every down/snap/practice rep, never came out for the specific injury, and got treatment outside of the team, where's the rules violation? The injury rules are supposed to be where you talk about team members who are physically compromised and/or miss any kind of time - unless the trainers didn't log treatment (which could be a serious rules violation), it appears that didn't happen. For what it's worth, Rotoworld (which is usually neurotic with practice misses) only has Sherman missing 1 practice in 2016 due to an ankle injury (but notes that Sherman was likely getting a breather).
  8. Joseph and McCoy will be a good coaching tandem with each other so long as McCoy doesn't want to make this a one-and-done HC search thing. On the Dolphins front, I wouldn't bring in a 3-4 guy anyway when our best defensive personnel are 4-3 guys primarily, but the NFL world needs a break from Rex Ryan, and I'm sure the reverse is true.
  9. I agree, but a 25 year old deep-threat WR that's hitting UFA is one of those things that will create a bidding war and drive his price way up. Right now, the going rate for a WR1 is something like 5/70 to 5/80 - Stills clearly isn't worth that IMO. But something more like the Hurns 4/40/16 extension - I'd sign that right now. Maybe the meeting point is somewhere in the middle of those two.
  10. Before I did that whole offseason thing, I came to show everyone this.
  11. The 2017 league year cap for the Miami Dolphins, prior to achievement bonuses from 2016 that may apply to the 2017 cap, is $39 million. Miami's Free Agency List (not including Jason Jones, who was cut over the weekend): Exclusive Rights Free Agents: Lafayette Pitts (ERFA) Thomas Duarte (ERFA) Mike Hull (ERFA) Anthony Steen (ERFA) Basically this is almost like years 1-2 in Major League Baseball - if the team wants you, you're back with a minimal raise. Steen and Hull will definitely be back, and I can see them extending offers to Pitts and Duarte based on just having camp bodies. Restricted Free Agents: Dominique Jones (RFA) Michael Thomas (RFA) Kiko Alonso (RFA) Nicholas Williams (RFA) For RFAs, you have to offer them a "tender" to be restricted. RFA's can sign with anyone, but their old team has 3 days to match. There are 3 tender levels - 1st round, 2nd round, and original round (each with salary ramifications). If someone signs a 1st or 2nd round tender player from you and you decline to match, then you get a 1st or 2nd round draft choice - in other words, it almost never happens. If someone signs an original round tender RFA to an offer sheet and you don't match, then you get nothing (ex. CJ Anderson's case - he was an original round tender, then signed with Miami. Had Denver not matched, they would have lost him for nothing). Alonso is getting a minimum of a second round tender (varies by year and CBA - in 2016 the 2nd round was 2.56 Million and the 1st round was 3.63 million, so it'll likely be close to 3 million and/or 4 million respectively). Thomas has played well enough that I'd consider giving him an original round tender, but not sure if I'd lean yes or no on him. The other two are unlikely to get tendered IMO. Unrestricted Free Agents: Damien Williams Andre Branch Bacarri Rambo TJ Yates Spencer Paysinger John Denney Jordan Cameron MarQueis Gray Kenny Stills Sam Young Jermon Bushrod Donald Butler Jelani Jenkins Of the above list: Andre Branch will probably look to come back, especially if Vance Joseph is back. He had a revival year this year, and I suspect that interest between Miami and Branch is mutual. Kenny Stills is 50/50 at best to return - Philly is already looking hard at him as an upgrade to their weapons on offense. He's replaceable for Miami (Carroo primarly), but his production will be missed. I'd prefer to resign him if his terms are reasonable, but he's definitely a candidate to have the market inflate his value. I don't recall hearing anything good OR bad about Bushrod - I suspect he'll be back to play RG or swing lineman (depending on the draft and camp) if he wants to. Cameron is done. Gray will be resigned at what should be a reasonable contract. Jelani Jenkins is a good LB, and I'd want him back. Not sure what the contract demands would be though. Denney will be back - long snappers tend to stay in one place until they're done. Young is probably gone - I'd imagine they'll look to upgrade his spot on the roster with someone better at his job. Paysinger is a good special teams player and an OK linebacker - if he wants back on the team, I'm willing to bring him back on a reasonable deal that reflects his ST/Backup status. I don't recall hearing much about Rambo or Butler - they're probably replacable. Rambo in particular may be out of a roster spot if both Abdul-Quaddus and Jones come back healthy. Yates is a tough call - while I'd love to see him back in camp to compete for backup duties, I think Tannehill and Moore are entrenched at 1 and 2, and he'll have better luck looking elsewhere. Damiem Williams is an RB, which means he's eminently replacable. If they can work out a reasonable deal, sure, and he does deserve a slight raise as a decent change of pace for Ajayi, but you can just as easily draft another "Damien Williams" in the 4th/5th round of the NFL draft. Other offseason business: Draft: First off, with the WC elimination, Miami is locked into the 22nd pick in each round. Beyond that - Miami traded away a 3rd and 4th round pick this year in the Leonte Carroo trade - but they also are in line for some decent compensatory picks this year due to, at the minimum, the Vernon and Miller defections from last offseason. The Vernon move alone will give them an extra 3rd - he was viewed as the second-best free agent of the class behind Brock Osweiler (oops) -and they're in line for a second pick, but what the pick will be depends on how the other free agents (Miller, Matthews, and Sheppard primarily) are valued by the complex draft compensation formula. If it's a 4th, then Minnesota will get the compensation pick and Miami will keep 4/22 - if it's a 5th, then Minnesota gets 4/22 and Miami skips the 4th round. Front office and coaching: The only coaching defection we may see is Vance Joseph get a head coaching gig somewhere (Denver is apparently a likely destination). Other than that, it seems that most of the staff and front office has done well enough this year to keep their jobs. A rarity in Miami offseasons that the front office/coaching stayed pretty consistent. Cuts/Cap Casualties: other than Jason Jones, who's already toast, Mario Williams is expected to be shown the door. Other possible cuts include Koa Misi (4.5 million of cap space saved) and maybe Dion Jordan (3.2 million in cap space saved, no dead money). Contract extensions/restructure: Tannehill, Suh, and Albert all have 10 million plus cap hits, so if room is needed each may restructure. Meanwhile Landry, Jones, Wake, and Mitchell are in the final years of their deals, and Ju'Wann James' 5th year option is up for consideration this offseason. Roster Needs: Believe it or not, the roster MAY be in a decent state. IMO the team needs the following: Cornerback - While it's possible that Howard and Lippett are going to be legitimate NFL corners, I wouldn't put all my eggs in that basket if the right corner fell to me in either the draft or free agency. Maxwell may also regress if Joseph leaves. Corners are such a year-to-year proposition and most of the good ones don't tend to get away, but this year the top FA targets are probably Trumaine Joseph and Prince Amukamara, with a possible nod to Dre Kilpatrick if Joseph comes back. Outside linebacker - assuming the team retains Alonso and Jenkins, I can't see them opening with Misi as the other starting LB since they were yet again gashed in run defense this year. Alonso and Jenkins are good cover guys, but they need a run stuffer at the point of attack - Jones can't be the only guy the run game fears. Maybe this is why Miami looks to resign Paysinger to a slighly-above-market contract, since 4-3 OLB's are in short supply on the market. Miami could also look to move Alosno to the strong side and sign an ILB for the middle - there's a number of decent ones available starting with Lawrence Timmons. TIght end - Adam Gase, supposedly, makes good use of the TE position in his scheme, which is one of the reasons that Jordan Cameron tried to give it one more go this year. Dion Sims and MarQuis Gray have both played well, but neither scares the opponent from a receiving perspective. There isn't a ton to write home about in the FA market - Martellus Bennett and Cameron Brate are the only ones I really recognize for receiver contributions - but all of Miami's TEs are Free Agents, so they're going to have to (re)sign someone. D-Line - Miami is losing a lot of their edge depth this offseason. The projected starters (Wake, Suh, Mitchell) are entrenched most likely, and if Branch comes back he'll be #4, but after them, the only D-line guy that's seen extensive NFL action is Jordan Philips. I would like to see a couple of rotational pieces signed this offseason (IMO anything from Dion Jordan is a bonus). Wide Receiver - as mentioned above, if Stills bolts for another team, his contribution will need to be replaced, as will his roster spot. Alshon Jeffrey is the obvious "top name" here, but there's other second tier guys that are very interesting if they choose to test the market - Pierre Garcon, Michael Floyd, Kenny Britt, Brian Quick, Dontrelle Inman, Adam Thelen, etc. EDIT: Forgot one thing. 2018 schedule: Buffalo x 2, NE x 2, NY Jets x 2, @KC, @BAL, @SD, @ATL @CAR, vs. DEN, vs. OAK, vs NO (London), vs. TB, vs TEN
  12. Be nice if the defense shows up one of these days. Miami's young players are killing the team with penalties. That Ajayi penalty was completely stupid and probably cost Miami their best shot at four extra points. I can't even fault Moore and the offense too much ... sure they need to finish drives but they're holding their own. The defense other than Mitchell and Alonso are still on the team bus. At least they got the Big Ben gift...lets change the momentum here.
  13. There's going to be a major grievance hearing on the TT situation in the near future. Also not insignifgicant - If TT's $15 mm option vests/is picked up, (best I can tell) Buffalo is functionally cap-strapped before re-signing anyone. There are major on-field ramifications that go beyond TT, and it will be interesting to watch how the league and PA handle things.
  14. Is there a dislike button? As much as I like Moore, and think he will do OK, Tannehill would have been nice to have on the field.
  15. Now that the offseason has opened for sure (thanks PacMan), let's get this show on the road - the thread for everyone who's not still playing pro football. The NFL's Official Coaching Tracker is here - use it as the primary resource for all hirings and firings on the coaching front. If back-roster moves are your thing, then this link seems reliable enough to track the Reserve/Futures Contract signing. On draft prospects, CBS tends to keep a pretty good list before the NFL's list begins, and you can find that here. Otherwise, this is the open thread for all the things NFL-related. Have at it, ladies and gents.