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thefiestygoat

Mark Fayne

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I wanted to make a post on Mark Fayne since he seems to draw a lot of negative opinions from fans. As I've watched the games this year, I've felt like he was one of the steadiest defenders the Devils have had. Sure he has had some forgettable plays and bad games, but so has every other defensemen for the Devils. I wanted to take a look at advanced metrics to see if they could back up my eyes' assessment of his play thus far. Below is a simple explanation of some of the metrics I'm going to use.

Corsi - The difference in shots attempted by the player's team and the shots attempted against the player's team in 5 on 5 situations.

Relative Corsi (Corsi Rel) - Measures how effective a player is in driving possession, relative to the rest of his team. It measures his raw EV Corsi relative to the raw EV Corsi of his team when he is off the ice.

Quality of Competition (QualComp) - The measure of how good the opposition is that the player is facing when he's on the ice. A higher score (above 0) represents tougher competition, a lower score (below 0) represents weaker competition.

A look his numbers in 5 on 5 situations:

30 GP 16.11 TOI/60 .021 QualComp .150 QualTeam .362 Corsi Rel QoC -.883 Corsi QoC 2.291 Rel QoT 1.579 Corsi QoT 6.2 Corsi Rel 4.35 Corsi ON -1.82 Corsi OFF 49.3% OZone% 47.6 Fin OZone%

Fayne ranks 17th in the league amongst defenseman who have played 30 games with a 6.2 Corsi Rel. He leads Devils defensemen in this category besting Tallinder (5.0), Larsson (3.0), Greene (-1.2), Salvador (-5.2), and Volchenkov (-8.2).

Fayne is the Devils 3rd biggest minutes eater amongst defensemen in 5 on 5 situations with 16.11 per game, below Larsson (17.51) and Tallinder (17.39), above Greene (15.14), Salvador (14.85), and Volchenkov (13.17). This is also good for 4th amongst the entire team.

He faces the 2nd highest quality of competition amongst the defensemen (Tallinder's .024 is above him) though he does have the 2nd highest quality of teammates (below Larsson's .239). His on-ice corsi is a team high 4.35.

Fayne, along with Salvador has a 49.3% offensive zone start, below Larsson (54.3%) and Greene (50.8%), above Tallinder (47.4%) and Volchenkov (44.3%). He finishes 47.6% of his shifts in the offensive zone, below Greene (56.8%) and Larsson (54.1%) - though both Larsson and Greene start more of their shifts in the offensive zone. He outproduces Salvador (46.3%) in this category though its close. Fayne also outproduces Tallinder (45.7%) and Volchenkov (42.6%) though they don't have as favorable a zone start as he does.

In terms of scoring from the Devils defense, Fayne leads the team with 3 goals (.37 goals per game), is tied 3rd with 4 assists (.37 secondary assists per game - 2nd on the team), and is 3rd in points with 7 (his .74 points per game ranks 2nd amongst the defensemen).

The bottom line is Fayne logs a decent amount of even strength minutes against tough competition, is effective in his own end, and does a solid job of driving the play towards the opponents zone. The Devils defense corps may not produce a lot offensively but he's been one of the contributors in that regard. Having the chance to play with Tallinder has certainly helped his numbers but I think this guy deserves more credit than a lot of fans have given him this season. There is no doubt he deserves to be a starting NHL player, not an AHL player as some fans have made him out to be. After Tallinder, who also seems to catch some heat around here, Fayne has been the Devils 2nd best defenseman this year.

For more information about these advanced metrics check out the following sites: Understanding Advanced Stats, Behind the Net, and Behind the Net - Full look at the Devils defense.

Special thanks to Triumph whose helped me learn about these metrics.

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I've tried to get into these stats before since I'm a junky with advanced baseball stats... Maybe now I will.

It's fun to toy around with some of this stuff. I'm guessing Yannick Weber (Montreal) is really bad? One of the highest OZone% among defensemen and sub-0 quality of competition and yet a negative Corsi and Relative Corsi. This narrative also fits Derek Morris.

Impressive to see Tallinder have 2nd best Corsi among Devils' defensemen despite facing the toughest competition and lowest OZone%. Also has the 2nd highest TOI/60.

Edited by nmigliore

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There's been a couple posters on here that for some reason have just been constantly complaining about how he's been playing awful and that he should be scratched in favor of just about anybody. I don't understand at all what these people are seeing that bothers them so much. I don't get into the advanced stats at all, but from what I've seen by watching the games, he's played solid in all 3 zones, has made good first passes out of our zone, can rush the puck up ice well, gets shots through to the net and can contribute offensively better than Tallinder, Salvador and Volchenkov have so far.

I think he and Tallinder have been our most consistently solid defense pairing so far this season. Larsson has been up and down, Volchenkov hasn't really impressed me yet and Salvador hasn't shown me anything to make me think this won't be his last year with the team, but Fayne has been nothing but outstanding for a 5th round pick that no one really knew anything about until last year.

Edited by ATLL765

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I gave Fayne a lot of grief last season on this very board and at home. It was so bad when they'd mention his name my wife would say"isn't that the one you don't like who's always messing up something?" and she doesnt even watch the games.

But I will gladly admit that he has become one our best D men, if not the most consistent at least.

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Other than a few rocky games towards the start of the season, Fayne has looked very solid to my eye and the numbers do seem to support this. Thanks for assembling the stats.

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All i have to say after reading all this....

Mark Fayne, would you bang my sister and let me be your child's uncle?

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Visually I thought he looked good. I'm glad the numbers backed that up.

+1

Thanks for compiling and posting, fiesty!

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There's been a couple posters on here that for some reason have just been constantly complaining about how he's been playing awful and that he should be scratched in favor of just about anybody. I don't understand at all what these people are seeing that bothers them so much. I don't get into the advanced stats at all, but from what I've seen by watching the games, he's played solid in all 3 zones, has made good first passes out of our zone, can rush the puck up ice well, gets shots through to the net and can contribute offensively better than Tallinder, Salvador and Volchenkov have so far.

I think he and Tallinder have been our most consistently solid defense pairing so far this season. Larsson has been up and down, Volchenkov hasn't really impressed me yet and Salvador hasn't shown me anything to make me think this won't be his last year with the team, but Fayne has been nothing but outstanding for a 5th round pick that no one really knew anything about until last year.

I too do not get where the people who are saying Fayne should be scratched or sent down are coming from. I think he has been quite solid this season.

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Whew... I don't get the Fayne hate at all ... but I'm not sure it's REAL, you know? I mean look how many people are agreeing with you here.

It's not sarcastic either right? :unsure:

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It's at times like this I wish Lou was the kind of GM who would negotiate contracts in-season, because maybe Fayne could be bowled over a 4 year, 2.2M per kind of deal.

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Fayne is the real deal. Remember this was a guy called up on an emergency basis last year. He wasn't really expected to be anything other than a stop gap. I remember last year when he was first announced in the lineup. People on the forum were like, "Fayne who? Never heard of him."

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The problem I have with these sabremetric stats in hockey (CORSI, Fenwick, QualComp) is that nobody other than a select 'few' seem to understand not only what they are but how you come about them. At least with the baseball sabremetrics anyone can get what WAR means and how it applies, even if you don't entirely understand how it's calculated. Plus hockey doesn't have a Billy Beane, that's made the sabremetric stats essential. The only time I 'ever' see them referenced is here.

Plus in hockey things seem a little more random, one of the stats I saw referenced was % of time in the offensive zone...well that can be affected by coming out for a faceoff in the offensive zone, no? Or getting more PP time than say, Volchenkov. At least in baseball everyone gets their AB's and everyone gets their 27 outs.

Edited by NJDevs4978

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The problem I have with these sabremetric stats in hockey (CORSI, Fenwick, QualComp) is that nobody other than a select 'few' seem to understand not only what they are but how you come about them. At least with the baseball sabremetrics anyone can get what WAR means and how it applies, even if you don't entirely understand how it's calculated. Plus hockey doesn't have a Billy Beane, that's made the sabremetric stats essential. The only time I 'ever' see them referenced is here.

Plus in hockey things seem a little more random, one of the stats I saw referenced was % of time in the offensive zone...well that can be affected by coming out for a faceoff in the offensive zone, no? Or getting more PP time than say, Volchenkov. At least in baseball everyone gets their AB's and everyone gets their 27 outs.

This is because you have never researched all the stats available.

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The problem I have with these sabremetric stats in hockey (CORSI, Fenwick, QualComp) is that nobody other than a select 'few' seem to understand not only what they are but how you come about them. At least with the baseball sabremetrics anyone can get what WAR means and how it applies, even if you don't entirely understand how it's calculated. Plus hockey doesn't have a Billy Beane, that's made the sabremetric stats essential. The only time I 'ever' see them referenced is here.

That's because hockey GMs are more secretive, as in this interview:

http://www.fearthefin.com/2011/9/20/2435834/ftf-interviews-sharks-general-manager-doug-wilson-part-two

The NHL will never reach the point of baseball, literally everything in baseball is mathematizable and they're getting to the point of analyzing individual pitches and swings and so forth.

WAR is totally esoteric compared to anything that hockey people have at their fingertips. Also, Don Cherry has ranted about the Corsi statistic and it's been mentioned on HNIC in other contexts. It's 5 or 10 years away from being regularly in the mainstream media, but I think we'll see it there eventually. I see BABIP and OPS and all sorts of stuff I never would've imagined 5 years ago.

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It's at times like this I wish Lou was the kind of GM who would negotiate contracts in-season, because maybe Fayne could be bowled over a 4 year, 2.2M per kind of deal.

eh, he's still restricted again so he's not going anywhere - unless you think someone is offer sheeting him to something outrageous which i don't see. the devils have defensive prospects that they're going to try and get in the lineup - urbom, merril, taormina, burlon, etc. yes, salvador's departure will open up one spot. so will foster. even removing fayne from the equation, they still are going to have:

tallinder

volchenkov

greene

larsson

that leaves 2 spots open. fayne has obviously proven he's getting one of them but i don't want to go oduya here before we have to and regret it.

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eh, he's still restricted again so he's not going anywhere - unless you think someone is offer sheeting him to something outrageous which i don't see. the devils have defensive prospects that they're going to try and get in the lineup - urbom, merril, taormina, burlon, etc. yes, salvador's departure will open up one spot. so will foster. even removing fayne from the equation, they still are going to have:

tallinder

volchenkov

greene

larsson

that leaves 2 spots open. fayne has obviously proven he's getting one of them but i don't want to go oduya here before we have to and regret it.

How did the Devils regret the Oduya deal? He played okay and was shipped out in a trade. It wasn't a disaster. Johnny Oduya is UFA this summer and I think he'll be staying in the NHL - probably for a little less money, but he'll be here. Plus, this would be 2.2M on a 65M cap, not 3.5M on a 56.8M cap. Enormous difference.

Fayne is RFA, but he's UFA in 2 years. Out of all the prospects you mentioned, Fayne is the only one who shoots right handed. That's just not a deal the Devils are likely to regret - the kid's a keeper.

Edited by Triumph

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The NHL will never reach the point of baseball, literally everything in baseball is mathematizable and they're getting to the point of analyzing individual pitches and swings and so forth.

Baseball is such a boring sport to watch that you have to look beyond the game to have fun so they come up with all those analyzes to keep you interested while watching

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How did the Devils regret the Oduya deal? He played okay and was shipped out in a trade. It wasn't a disaster. Johnny Oduya is UFA this summer and I think he'll be staying in the NHL - probably for a little less money, but he'll be here. Plus, this would be 2.2M on a 65M cap, not 3.5M on a 56.8M cap. Enormous difference.

Fayne is RFA, but he's UFA in 2 years. Out of all the prospects you mentioned, Fayne is the only one who shoots right handed. That's just not a deal the Devils are likely to regret - the kid's a keeper.

you're right that 2.2 isn't that big a deal for a top 4 defenseman who can take on the toughs and fill in on an PP and skate. you're doing some revisionist history on oduya - he really was terrible after signing that deal - we would've given him away for essentially nothing if we could at the time.

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he isn`t so well as we want.

but don`t forget about second_season effect

he plays even straght, pp, pk, have 3 goals, 3rd time on ice d-man in second season in devils

i think it`s pretty well for noname_defensman(and it`s all in Devils)

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during that second half run last year his ice time moved up from 16/17 mins into the 20 min area and he played clean defense during that stretch. he was a good pairing with tallinder!

doesnt play as big as his size. like to see more pain from him. he started out in a different system this year but is looking steady again not bad for a 5th rounder

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