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Triumph

Yet Another Reason Why Plus/Minus Is Stupid

28 posts in this topic

I don't get it. This person (the author) is saying things like:

"So the correlation of 08/09 Corsi QualComp to 09/10 5v5 save percentage score is a touch stronger, r=-.09."

and we're supposed to listen to him? Has he ever taken a statistics class, even? :blink:

I'm not sure I understand you're problem with his statement. He's saying that there isn't much correlation to begin with, but that the negative correlation got a little stronger when comparing 2 seasons, as opposed to just one.

Guys that face tough competition and do well tend to face tougher competition the next season, which hurts their on ice save percentage, but it's such a negligible effect that it should effectively be ignored, is how I read it.

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(I'm getting crap for being passive-agressive in the other thread, so here's a non-PA reply:)

Dude, a +/- 9% "correlation" is not a correlation at all. Stating that one correlation is better than another, when both are under 80% to begin with, is just ignorant.

I got a laugh over the author's scatter plot analysis as well. If this is the kind of analysis that is being listened to around here... well, there goes a bunch of respect out of the window. That article was just stupid.

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(I'm getting crap for being passive-agressive in the other thread, so here's a non-PA reply:)

Dude, a +/- 9% "correlation" is not a correlation at all. Stating that one correlation is better than another, when both are under 80% to begin with, is just ignorant.

I got a laugh over the author's scatter plot analysis as well. If this is the kind of analysis that is being listened to around here... well, there goes a bunch of respect out of the window. That article was just stupid.

I can assure you the author knows exactly what he's talking about. Feel free to write a competing article about whether defensemen can affect save percentage on - I'd actually be really interested to read that, it would change the way I and a lot of other people are thinking about hockey these days.

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