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NJDevs4978

Official 2012 New York Mets Thread

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Maybe June 3 then?

See my post above.

I checked my tickets and that last one (vs Marlins in September), which I was unsure about, is right. July or August is probably the best time.

Edited by nmigliore

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See my post above.

I checked my tickets and that last one (vs Marlins in September), which I was unsure about, is right. July or August is probably the best time.

Oh I know, I meant if you wanted to meet up for pre-game tailgating that day...I know everyone has a lot on their plates, and it might be hard to coordinate getting everyone together. Just layin' out all of the options.

Maybe one of the August games for me...just have to figure out which weekend we'll be celebrating my daughter's 4th b-day (yikes!)...her birthday is August 15.

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Whatever you two decide I'll be there for, and then everyone else can decide to come or not after that.

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Whatever you two decide I'll be there for, and then everyone else can decide to come or not after that.

I'm thinking May 5 if there's no Devils playoff game, or August 25.

We could always hit a bar someplace after the Mets and watch the Devils too on the 5th if they're still on. A true beat-your-chest and be a man kind of day :cheers:

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Mets extended Jon Niese for 5 years, $25M. The deal also includes two club options that could push the total value of the deal to $46M (so basically $10.5M for each club option).

This deal buys out his last pre-arbitration year (this year), all 3 of his arbitration-eligible years (2013, 2014, 2015), one free agent year (2016), and potentially two more free agent years with those club options (2017, 2018).

I did a lot of dirty work, factoring in arbitration estimates and adjusting for salary inflation, and basically, Niese would have to be a 1.5 WAR pitcher just to be worth the MAX of this deal. If you don't speak in saber terms, that's basically a below average starter. That bar is incredibly low and he's only guaranteed about HALF of that. The cost savings potential here is fantastic; great job by Sandy.

Edited by nmigliore

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Mets extended Jon Niese for 5 years, $25M. The deal also includes two club options that could push the total value of the deal to $46M (so basically $10.5M for each club option).

This deal buys out his last pre-arbitration year (this year), all 3 of his arbitration-eligible years (2013, 2014, 2015), one free agent year (2016), and potentially two more free agent years with those club options (2017, 2018).

I did a lot of dirty work, factoring in arbitration estimates and adjusting for salary inflation, and basically, Niese would have to be a 1.5 WAR pitcher just to be worth the MAX of this deal. If you don't speak in saber terms, that's basically a below average starter. That bar is incredibly low and he's only guaranteed about HALF of that. The cost savings potential here is fantastic; great job by Sandy.

Interesting and creative...it's only a bad deal if Niese crashes and burns, really. Nice chunk of change for Niese...feels like a good deal for all sides.

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Interesting and creative...it's only a bad deal if Niese crashes and burns, really. Nice chunk of change for Niese...feels like a good deal for all sides.

Pretty much; he'd have to get hurt or see a significant drop-off in performance. Getting hurt is not out of the question of course; pitchers get hurt all the time and Niese has had some durability issues. If he can stay healthy and be just reasonably productive throughout this deal though, there's a very good chance he'll produce surplus value.

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Pretty much; he'd have to get hurt or see a significant drop-off in performance. Getting hurt is not out of the question of course; pitchers get hurt all the time and Niese has had some durability issues. If he can stay healthy and be just reasonably productive throughout this deal though, there's a very good chance he'll produce surplus value.

Getting hurt can happen to anyone anytime...we've seen that with Santana.

2-3 games over .500 per season, with maybe one year of 5 over or better, and the Mets made out on this one.

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I'm glad Niese actually wanted to stay here through the hard times, cause that is a bit of a below-market deal :lol: But hey, it's guaranteed money in the bank for him, I'm sure that appealed to him the way it did Reyes when he signed his below-market deal after 2006.

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Not as big of a Niese fan as many are, but it seems like a good deal.

Sure as hell beats the hell out of 3 yr 36M for Perez

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Not as big of a Niese fan as many are, but it seems like a good deal.

Sure as hell beats the hell out of 3 yr 36M for Perez

He's nothing special...probably a #4 on a good team, so here he'll be asked to be a #2/#3 type (asking him to be a #2 is aking a lot), but if he puts up innings (admittedly he hasn't done this yet) and wins a little more than he loses, he did well. He should be OK as long as the Mets don't ask too much of him, as they kind of have to do with Pelfrey...Pelf really shouldn't be more than a #4 or #5 on this team.

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Niese is much better than Pelfrey. Pelfrey had some "good" years in 2008 and 2010, but that was more about fortunate homerun prevention than anything else. His poor years in between (2009 and 2011) are more in line with his true talent level. Just to make this even more clear, Pelfrey's season best strikeout to walk ratio was 1.72 in 2008; Niese ran a 3-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio last season AND posted a groundball rate better than any Pelfrey season.

As for Niese, his overall ERA hasn't been pretty; once you adjust for the park and league, he's been 15% worse than league average over his career. However, better stats that are based on what a pitcher has under his control (which are better at predicting ERA too), show Niese has the upside of being an above average pitcher; probably something in the Wandy Rodriguez mold. In fact, here are their career numbers side by side:

Rodriguez: 7.68 K/9, 3.23 BB/9, 44.5 GB%

Niese: 7.65 K/9, 2.99 BB/9, 49.1 GB%

Over the last 5 seasons, Wandy ran an ERA that was 11% better than league average, which was in line with other starting pitchers like Ted Lilly, Matt Garza, and Ryan Dempster. Essentially, guys who have been pretty good starting pitchers over the last half-decade, but not quite front of the rotation level.

Of course, one could even argue Niese might be better considering he gets more groundballs, walks slightly less, and is coming off of a season in which he posted defensive-independent numbers that ranked him among the game's best 30 starting pitchers. I'm not saying Niese will be that good, but his upside is definitely better than a #4 starter.

I'd recommend reading this article from Eno Sarris: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/comps-say-niese-extension-a-good-deal/

---

And Happy Opening Day everyone.

No idea if anyone also follows the Mets' minor league system, but all of their full-season affiliates kick off their seasons today too. Matt Harvey, who most of you should know, is the Opening Day starter for Wally Backman's Buffalo Bisons (AAA). Jeurys Familia, another one of the team's top prospects, is also going to be pitching in Buffalo this year. We could very well see these guys debut at some point in 2012. Zack Wheeler, who I like even more than Harvey and Familia, was assigned to Binghamton (AA) and will pitch tomorrow. Last year's two top draft picks, Brandon Nimmo (outfielder) and Michael Fulmer (right-handed pitcher), who are also top 10 prospects in the organization, are headed in different paths; Fulmer is being pushed right into full season A ball (Savannah) despite virtually no pro experience. Nimmo, on the other hand, is being held back in extending spring training and is probably ticketed for a short-season team like Brooklyn or Kingsport.

Edited by nmigliore

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Like Cerrone mentioned on Metsblog, I just want to see progress. I'll take a .500 season as long as they make steps forward.

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Niese is much better than Pelfrey. Pelfrey had some "good" years in 2008 and 2010, but that was more about fortunate homerun prevention than anything else. His poor years in between (2009 and 2011) are more in line with his true talent level. Just to make this even more clear, Pelfrey's season best strikeout to walk ratio was 1.72 in 2008; Niese ran a 3-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio last season AND posted a groundball rate better than any Pelfrey season.

As for Niese, his overall ERA hasn't been pretty; once you adjust for the park and league, he's been 15% worse than league average over his career. However, better stats that are based on what a pitcher has under his control (which are better at predicting ERA too), show Niese has the upside of being an above average pitcher; probably something in the Wandy Rodriguez mold. In fact, here are their career numbers side by side:

Rodriguez: 7.68 K/9, 3.23 BB/9, 44.5 GB%

Niese: 7.65 K/9, 2.99 BB/9, 49.1 GB%

Over the last 5 seasons, Wandy ran an ERA that was 11% better than league average, which was in line with other starting pitchers like Ted Lilly, Matt Garza, and Ryan Dempster. Essentially, guys who have been pretty good starting pitchers over the last half-decade, but not quite front of the rotation level.

Of course, one could even argue Niese might be better considering he gets more groundballs, walks slightly less, and is coming off of a season in which he posted defensive-independent numbers that ranked him among the game's best 30 starting pitchers. I'm not saying Niese will be that good, but his upside is definitely better than a #4 starter.

I'd recommend reading this article from Eno Sarris: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/comps-say-niese-extension-a-good-deal/

---

And Happy Opening Day everyone.

No idea if anyone also follows the Mets' minor league system, but all of their full-season affiliates kick off their seasons today too. Matt Harvey, who most of you should know, is the Opening Day starter for Wally Backman's Buffalo Bisons (AAA). Jeurys Familia, another one of the team's top prospects, is also going to be pitching in Buffalo this year. We could very well see these guys debut at some point in 2012. Zack Wheeler, who I like even more than Harvey and Familia, was assigned to Binghamton (AA) and will pitch tomorrow. Last year's two top draft picks, Brandon Nimmo (outfielder) and Michael Fulmer (right-handed pitcher), who are also top 10 prospects in the organization, are headed in different paths; Fulmer is being pushed right into full season A ball (Savannah) despite virtually no pro experience. Nimmo, on the other hand, is being held back in extending spring training and is probably ticketed for a short-season team like Brooklyn or Kingsport.

I said a #4 on a good team (I could see him winning 15 games or so if all broke right in that situation)...he could possibly be a #3 on other teams. I wasn't really comparing him to Pelf...on the Mets, I could see Niese being a decent #3, where Pelf should probably be a meh #4 or a meh #5 at best. I think Niese still has room to improve...I think we've already seen Pelf's best.

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Wow, nice comeback for Johan! Now if only these guys could manage more than one goddam hit (Harry Doyle reference)...

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Great pinch-hitting there numbnuts. Three straight strikes looking. Poor Johan gets a ND.

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What's in the air today? All games to this point are scoreless...it's the return of the Dead Ball Era!

EDIT: Not anymore...David Wright actually drives in a run and the Mets take the lead!

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Andres Torres :rolleyes:

What happened? I guess he pulled up and had to be taken out?

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He misjudged a shot to center field, it went over his head for a triple then he hurt his leg again chasing the ball. At least Byrdak bailed him out but looks like we have no CF'er for the next few weeks.

Edited by NJDevs4978

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I know that there's supposed to be some leeway given on guys near/straddling the bag when trying to turn 2 at second base, but didn't that one seem a little absurd? The guy jumped away from the bag while the throw was on its way to him.

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I know that there's supposed to be some leeway given on guys near/straddling the bag when trying to turn 2 at second base, but didn't that one seem a little absurd? The guy jumped away from the bag while the throw was on its way to him.

What do you expect, it's Phil Cuzzi over there...par for the course with him :P

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1-0!

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Nice!

Johan's velocity was pretty uninspiring but he managed to pitch well and 13 swinging strikes is a positive sign.

TC was wise to call on Byrdak to get 2 huge outs, but Jon Rauch in the 8th (he did his job today, but I can't see this lasting) and having Tejada bunt was rather disappointing to witness.

Francisco's velocity still doesn't look to be there, but it was at least a little better today. That splitter really helped him today.

Really stinks to see Torres pull up lame and it sounds like he'll be DL-bound. Kirk Nieuwenhuis should absolutely be the call up given he's already on the 40-man and is the best ML-ready (or near ML-ready) option available. The outfield defense definitely just took a big hit though.

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Nice!

Johan's velocity was pretty uninspiring but he managed to pitch well and 13 swinging strikes is a positive sign.

TC was wise to call on Byrdak to get 2 huge outs, but Jon Rauch in the 8th (he did his job today, but I can't see this lasting) and having Tejada bunt was rather disappointing to witness.

Francisco's velocity still doesn't look to be there, but it was at least a little better today. That splitter really helped him today.

Really stinks to see Torres pull up lame and it sounds like he'll be DL-bound. Kirk Nieuwenhuis should absolutely be the call up given he's already on the 40-man and is the best ML-ready (or near ML-ready) option available. The outfield defense definitely just took a big hit though.

1-0...I can't pick this one apart too much. We know what kind of a year it will be. I'm enjoying this while it lasts.

But yeah, the Torres situation sucks...ballplayers really come off as fragile wussies sometimes, fairly or unfairly.

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