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Triumph

The Race For 6th Thread

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According to Anson Carter (NHL Network), he says the Bruins have just been careless with the puck in all three zones, for what that's worth.

He also made it sound like that the Devils and Avs were purposely playing for a shootout, because that's each team's strength. Right, I'm sure going in both teams said, "Hey, let's not try to score for 65 minutes, then take our chances in the shootout." Both teams created chances but both goalies made some nice saves. It wasn't like both teams were waiting for the other to give them a scoring chance.

LOL,exactly, that OT period was WIDE OPEN and exciting

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I wish the NHL would change the rule so that winning a division only guaranteed you a top 4 seed, not one of the top 3 (still getting home ice for at least one round). Not only would it make this entire discussion moot, it would also allow the Rangers and Penguins to finish 1-2 in the conference like they deserve (assuming they stay on pace).

Edited by squishyx

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I wish the NHL would change the rule so that winning a division only guaranteed you a top 4 seed, not one of the top 3 (still getting home ice for at least one round). Not only would it make this entire discussion moot, it would also allow the Rangers and Penguins to finish 1-2 in the conference like they deserve (assuming they stay on pace).

So this would become The Race for 5th Thread?

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I wish the NHL would change the rule so that winning a division only guaranteed you a top 4 seed, not one of the top 3 (still getting home ice for at least one round). Not only would it make this entire discussion moot, it would also allow the Rangers and Penguins to finish 1-2 in the conference like they deserve (assuming they stay on pace).

That's what the reallignment, in effect, seeks to do.

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I just did some calculations... Anything to not actually do work on a Friday.

I see the Devils finishing 8-3 giving them a 49-28-5 record. 103 points.

I see the Flyers finishing 7-5 giving them a 48-27-7 record. 103 points. They have the tiebreaker with ROW and we stay in 6th.

Flyers have a VERY tough schedule to finish out the season. I just want to stay away from Boston in the first round lol.

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So this would become The Race for 5th Thread?

Race for 2nd / 3rd when you actually think about it, there is a new "ideal" spot open. Right now if you don't win the a division the next "ideal" spot 6th.

That's what the reallignment, in effect, seeks to do.

Eh, I don't really think that's what realignment seeks to do, I think its just a side effect. The NHL could make this small change that would give every team a much bigger incentive to fight harder.

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I just did some calculations... Anything to not actually do work on a Friday.

I see the Devils finishing 8-3 giving them a 49-28-5 record. 103 points.

I see the Flyers finishing 7-5 giving them a 48-27-7 record. 103 points. They have the tiebreaker with ROW and we stay in 6th.

Flyers have a VERY tough schedule to finish out the season. I just want to stay away from Boston in the first round lol.

Wow, you're being optimistic! I would be mike tyson "totally ecstatic" if we finish with only 3 more loses

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Wow, you're being optimistic! I would be mike tyson "totally ecstatic" if we finish with only 3 more loses

I have us losing to the Pens twice... and losing to Detroit on the road. Other than that... I have us beating the Rangers and Chicago... then the reset of the season is Ottawa x2, Leafs, Bolts, Canes, Isles. Games the Devils SHOULD win.

Then again... the Devils do their best to defy common sense when it comes to beating teams lower in the standings.

The Flyers have a tough schedule. They play Pitt three times... and the Rangers who they can't beat.

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I wouldn't attribute his play to that (he played very well in the weeks following it) but they sure seem beatable now.

I agree. Boston's poor play over the last 30 or so games has had more to do with injuries up and down their lineup than Thomas failing to show up for a White House visit with the President.

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I have us losing to the Pens twice... and losing to Detroit on the road. Other than that... I have us beating the Rangers and Chicago... then the reset of the season is Ottawa x2, Leafs, Bolts, Canes, Isles. Games the Devils SHOULD win.

Then again... the Devils do their best to defy common sense when it comes to beating teams lower in the standings.

The Flyers have a tough schedule. They play Pitt three times... and the Rangers who they can't beat.

I think 7-4 is possible down the stretch here. No matter what, I'm happy with the way this team has played thus far this season. They have pretty much proved that the 1st half of last season was an abboration (sp?).

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I have us losing to the Pens twice... and losing to Detroit on the road. Other than that... I have us beating the Rangers and Chicago... then the reset of the season is Ottawa x2, Leafs, Bolts, Canes, Isles. Games the Devils SHOULD win.

Then again... the Devils do their best to defy common sense when it comes to beating teams lower in the standings.

The Flyers have a tough schedule. They play Pitt three times... and the Rangers who they can't beat.

thats true! I have a split with pens, one loss out of the rags hawks, a sens split, wings loss and one loss out of those 4 remainders. 5 losses

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So people have noticed that Boston might become the 3rd seed now right?

It would surprise me if they were aiming to play NJ now.

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It would surprise me if they were aiming to play NJ now.

I don't think they care who they play at all. They know if they're playing good hockey, they can beat anyone. They have the most talent of anyone in the conference, with the possible exception of Pittsburgh. They want to finish strong and play their game. If they're not doing that, the matchup won't matter.

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Thomas himself has been horrible, though. Nor can they trust Marty Turco at all. This is getting real interesting. Whatever happens, we can be pretty sure we don't want to finish 5th.

Edited by Triumph

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Thomas himself has been horrible, though. Nor can they trust Marty Turco at all. This is getting real interesting. Whatever happens, we can be pretty sure we don't want to finish 5th.

I doubt Turco plays again this season. Thomas looks super sluggish.

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Thomas himself has been horrible, though. Nor can they trust Marty Turco at all. This is getting real interesting. Whatever happens, we can be pretty sure we don't want to finish 5th.

Meh...its plausible that the Pens can catch the Rags

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I doubt Turco plays again this season. Thomas looks super sluggish.

They will have to play Turco, though. They seem pretty committed to limiting Thomas's starts. Thomas did play 66 games once, but that was when he was 32.

Mantzas: Even if the Rags finish 4th, I'd still rather play the Panthers and a Bruin team with a sucky Thomas (assuming he was still sucking - the good news is if he does improve, the Bruins likely stay in 2nd place and NJ in 6th or above)

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What a day today was. Horrible result for New Jersey on the ice, but Toronto helps us out and Philly helps us out some too. We've got about as big of a cushion as we can possibly expect.

Team PTS GR

5. Flyers 90 11

6. Devils 87 10

7. Sens 84 9

NJ loses tiebreakers to everyone, but all they have to do is get at least 2 fewer points than Ottawa over the rest of the year without getting 4 more points than the Flyers, and they've got 6th. This is of course excepting very extreme scenarios like having the Penguins, who are 6 points up with 2 games in hand, beginning to freefall. If the Devils play .400-.600 hockey it's going to be real hard for them to finish anything but 6th.

Playing the for-instance game, disregarding potential H2H matchups -

If the Devils go 5-5-0 in the next 10:

The Flyers would have to go 3-8-0 or some other combination of 6 points to finish below New Jersey.

The Senators would have to go 6-2-1 or some other combination of 13 points to finish above New Jersey.

Edited by Triumph

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PERFECT result again - everything's coming up Milhouse for 6th place. A 3 point game where the Flyers win.

Team PTS GR

Flyers 92 10

Devils 87 10

Sens 84 9

NJ needs 6 more points than the Flyers to finish 5th. Ignoring H2H matchups, if the Flyers go 5-5-0, the Devils have to go 8-2-0 to finish 5th.

Big game coming up on March 31 - Flyers home against the Senators.

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Currently a 54.8% chance of playing Florida in the 1st round, the highest % of any Eastern Matchup:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern.html

Also add in Washington's 9.6% and Winnipeg's 3.4%, and there's now a 68% chance that we'll play the Southeast champ. On a good note, we have virtually no chance of playing NYR/PIT/PHI (2.9%, 3.2%, 0.8%).

I'm not sure how they're arriving at "% chance of winning the Cup" as these seem very odd:

East

13.0% Boston

12.6% Pittsburgh

12.0% Rangers

5.1% Philly

1.7% Devils

West

20.5% St. Louis

12.8% Vancouver

10.2% Detroit

3.1% Nashville

Edited by Z-Man

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Be careful what you wish for. We haven't exactly killed it against the southeast. Anything can happen, like a shot of Eric Staal's stick with a minute left to go in game 7 of the first round.

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Be careful what you wish for. We haven't exactly killed it against the southeast. Anything can happen, like a shot of Eric Staal's stick with a minute left to go in game 7 of the first round.

you wish for the best odds. you're 100% correct that luck plays a huge roll in the playoffs but you'd like to put the scales in your favor. playing PIT who is gangbusters lately, or NYR where there is a psychological effect between their fans in our building and lundqvist, the scales are NOT in NJ's favor. Playing a team like FL who has been a one line team for most of the year with up and down goaltending - that's a better matchup for NJ

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Well our playoff chances have definitely gotten better (not that we are really in doubt) since washington AND winnipeg lost in regulation

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Currently a 54.8% chance of playing Florida in the 1st round, the highest % of any Eastern Matchup:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern.html

Also add in Washington's 9.6% and Winnipeg's 3.4%, and there's now a 68% chance that we'll play the Southeast champ. On a good note, we have virtually no chance of playing NYR/PIT/PHI (2.9%, 3.2%, 0.8%).

I'm not sure how they're arriving at "% chance of winning the Cup" as these seem very odd:

East

13.0% Boston

12.6% Pittsburgh

12.0% Rangers

5.1% Philly

1.7% Devils

West

20.5% St. Louis

12.8% Vancouver

10.2% Detroit

3.1% Nashville

The methodology of SportsClubStats is pretty weak - someone I know tried to figure out what it was; it uses goal differential. Which is pretty good but far from perfect because of the unpredictability of the percentages that drive goal scoring. Compared to what they've got going on in baseball, this is basically darts. But yeah, I figure the Devils are at least 50% to finish 6th.

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$46 is a little higher than I thought, but not by much. You think they are pricing this in anticipation of a first round exit too?

Sorry I didn't get back to this.. Tickets will be $60 face value for uppers and (I believe) the balcony behind Marty.. They aren't pricing it for an early exit, they are pricing it to make bank if we play NYR, PIT, PHI, BOS or CAPS.. Looks like they will get fvcked

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