Z-Man

Because I know some of you love advanced stats

34 posts in this topic

http://www.puckprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=70

GVT: Goals Versus Threshold. The value of a player, in goals, above what a replacement level player would contribute. GVT aggregates offensive, defensive, goaltending and shootout contributions in a single metric. The sum of player GVT on a team equals that team’s goal differential plus the replacement level, which is 50% of the average team scoring level.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nhl/story/_/id/8144103/2012-nhl-offseason-minnesota-wild-tampa-bay-lightning-big-offseason-winners

Nashville -23.2 (29th)

New Jersey -23.9 (30th)

Lacking anyone to replace Parise, not to mention Ponikarovsky, it could be quite a hangover for the Stanley Cup finalist Devils. Though we didn't factor salary into this particular study, Martin Brodeur's two-year deal with a $4.5 million cap hit would produce a GVS (Goals Versus Salary) of minus-10.4 goals, should the legend's mediocre performance of the past two seasons continue. That would make Brodeur's deal the worst contract offered so far this offseason.

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GVT has flaws - it values goals and assists too highly, doesn't account for tons of factors - but it's okay for goaltenders, and there's no question about that Brodeur contract. It's an abomination.

Edited by Triumph

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Doesn't take into account post season performance. Obviously, there are extenuating circumstances.

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GVT has flaws - it values goals and assists too highly, doesn't account for tons of factors - but it's okay for goaltenders, and there's no question about that Brodeur contract. It's an abomination.

I still don't see how anyone cares about Marty's contract at this point. It is not preventing the team from acquiring other players. It played zero role in Parise's defection. It doesn't have any serious cap implications. Even if the cap drops significantly after the CBA, we're still going to be far enough from reaching it so that it won't play a role in whether Zajac can be re-signed. It isn't the sort of deal that will effect the finances in any significant way. At worst, it's a reward for past services rendered. Doesn't bother me.

I would also argue that GVT has it's limits when assessing goalies like Marty that, especially as they have gotten older, are notoriously poor at the beginning of the season. As even Tri has admitted, he was very good in the second half of the season, and played well, but not spectacularly, during the playoffs. While I can't speak for the advanced statistics, I recall that Marty was just as good if not better than Lunqvist in the second half for the meat and potato stats. True, as he gets older, his overall performance, including his performance down the stretch will likely decline. Given the lack of any other realistic alternatives, short of a Brian Boucher-type journeyman, it's a risk worth taking even if you don't think it's right that he's overpaid.

Again, the worst move by far as the Salvador deal. Not so much because he's overpaid, but that it will force Lou to trade a better defenseman. The only way Lou redeems himself for that is if he manages to pull off another Tom Kurvers-like swindle.

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I still don't see how anyone cares about Marty's contract at this point. It is not preventing the team from acquiring other players. It played zero role in Parise's defection. It doesn't have any serious cap implications. Even if the cap drops significantly after the CBA, we're still going to be far enough from reaching it so that it won't play a role in whether Zajac can be re-signed. It isn't the sort of deal that will effect the finances in any significant way. At worst, it's a reward for past services rendered. Doesn't bother me.

It's at least $2M above his value. If you don't think the Devils could do a lot with $2M, well, we must disagree.

I would also argue that GVT has it's limits when assessing goalies like Marty that, especially as they have gotten older, are notoriously poor at the beginning of the season. As even Tri has admitted, he was very good in the second half of the season, and played well, but not spectacularly, during the playoffs. While I can't speak for the advanced statistics, I recall that Marty was just as good if not better than Lunqvist in the second half for the meat and potato stats. True, as he gets older, his overall performance, including his performance down the stretch will likely decline. Given the lack of any other realistic alternatives, short of a Brian Boucher-type journeyman, it's a risk worth taking even if you don't think it's right that he's overpaid.

The games in the second half of the season aren't worth more points than games in the first half. They're all worth the same thing. There are no 'advanced statistics' for goaltenders - besides GVT, I guess, which is just a consolidation of things 'regular' stats already tell us. While Lundqvist's first half put the Rangers into the playoffs almost singlehandedly, Brodeur's first half almost cost them the playoffs singlehandedly.

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It's at least $2M above his value. If you don't think the Devils could do a lot with $2M, well, we must disagree.

Overpay or watch him retire somewhere other than NJ. Easy choice for me.

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It's at least $2M above his value. If you don't think the Devils could do a lot with $2M, well, we must disagree.

The games in the second half of the season aren't worth more points than games in the first half. They're all worth the same thing. There are no 'advanced statistics' for goaltenders - besides GVT, I guess, which is just a consolidation of things 'regular' stats already tell us. While Lundqvist's first half put the Rangers into the playoffs almost singlehandedly, Brodeur's first half almost cost them the playoffs singlehandedly.

Well, maybe the extra $2 million could pay for some extra Devils dancers, but otherwise, it's just going into the banks' pockets.

And yes, I realize that all games matter. However, as bad/overrated as one may think Marty is, the fact remains is that he's been good enough to get us into the playoffs virtually every year of his career, and pretty comfortably at that, including last year. If he's playing better as playoff time rolls around we're better off.

I guess what I'm getting at is that Marty's contract is a red herring.

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Well, maybe the extra $2 million could pay for some extra Devils dancers, but otherwise, it's just going into the banks' pockets.

The Devils need a forward. That money could go towards one, instead it's going into Melanie's pockets.

And yes, I realize that all games matter. However, as bad/overrated as one may think Marty is, the fact remains is that he's been good enough to get us into the playoffs virtually every year of his career, and pretty comfortably at that, including last year. If he's playing better as playoff time rolls around we're better off.

This is something we've been over a lot - the Devils defense has been incredible over the course of his career. Brodeur was massively valuable in 07 and 08, but other than that, I'm not sure how many years he's been *the* factor at getting NJ into the playoffs.

I guess what I'm getting at is that Marty's contract is a red herring.

Like Communism, I suppose.

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The Devils need a forward. That money could go towards one, instead it's going into Melanie's pockets.

Like I said, if you can name someone the Devils won't go out and acquire (or keep) but for Marty's contract, let me know. Otherwise, he's gotta feed the monkey. Hasn't that ever occurred to you, sir.

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Like I said, if you can name someone the Devils won't go out and acquire (or keep) but for Marty's contract, let me know. Otherwise, he's gotta feed the monkey. Hasn't that ever occurred to you, sir.

Alexei Ponikarovsky.

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Alexei Ponikarovsky.

Was clearly going to be gone anyway for reasons I still can't figure out.

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Was clearly going to be gone anyway for reasons I still can't figure out.

I think the chance to go play with Antropov again is the reason he went where he did. If he valued winning, he wouldnt of gone to the damn Jets. He could've waited, what, 2 or 3 more days until Zach decided and then maybe would've been brought back.

Saying this money could've gone to Poni is silly. There are extenuating circumstances and legitimate possibilities other than money being the reason he didnt come back.

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EARTH TO EVERYONE; MARTY ISNT JUST A LEGEND, HES OUR LEGEND. PAY THE MAN HANDSOMELY FOR SERVICES RENDERED. WHEN HE FINALLY DOES RETIRE WE'LL ALL UNDERSTAND THIS CONTRACT

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EARTH TO EVERYONE; MARTY ISNT JUST A LEGEND, HES OUR LEGEND. PAY THE MAN HANDSOMELY FOR SERVICES RENDERED. WHEN HE FINALLY DOES RETIRE WE'LL ALL UNDERSTAND THIS CONTRACT

This is so true. This is an area where I don't participate because the level of ridiculousness just gets out of hand. It's Marty, it's not crippling our team and he took less throughout his career to stay with us. I think we can pay him back just a little. This is not an issue in which I think it's proper to measure the player in terms of skill level and production. we have posters here saying things like, "Well, we could have gotten {insert goalie name here} for this much less." It's like, stfu with that stupid sh!t - it's Martin Brodeur, ya know; THE NJ Devil?

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I think people bitching about giving Marty, the guy who's taken pay-cut after pay-cut to stay with our team, win over 600 games, 5 Eastern Conference Championships, 3 stanley cups, and a few Vezinas, are fvcking insane. I don't give a sh!t about stats. If he gets paid that to be a backup, FVCK IT, I don't care. I'd rather the Devils overpay a guy by a million bucks than see Marty skating out in a different sweater.

Alexei Ponikarovsky.

Yuh huh, the reason the Devils didn't sign Ponikarovsky is because they gave Marty 1.5-2m extra.

Show me your statistics that say that.

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If Marty is collecting for past services. So be it! The Devils owe him. I always thought he deserved a point where he would get overpaid for taking far less than he could have got in the past. Quite frankly, there was no other option. Lou has not prepared this team for life after Marty.

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I agree that Marty got overpaid, but IMO he's worth it to us. Just the fact its a virtual certainty he finishes his career here is worth what he got paid.

Had he got that contract anywhere else, I'd have scoffed at whoever paid it, but I'd have been more mad he was putting on another sweater than anything else.

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There is an over 100-page thread on everyone being furious with our former captain for a myriad of things, one of which is his lack of loyalty to the organization that drafted him and made him a "star" player. But when it comes to rewarding that loyalty to the face of our franchise who has been nothing but loyal to this same organization for nearly 20 years, some people scoff at overpaying him and giving him an extra year. If you want players to be loyal, you have to show that same loyalty to them at the end of their careers.

Sorry but you can't have it both ways. I have absolutely no problem with Marty's contract. I was actually more worried about losing him than Zach and I can't even fathom seeing Marty in another sweater either. If that costs more than what others think he's worth, so be it.

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Did we overpay Marty? Yes

Is the extra million bucks negligible considering we wouldn't have a proper replacement next year? Yes

Does he deserve it after years of being underpaid? Yes

Are the fans and paying customers happy Marty will retire a Devil? Yes

Can Marty still bring it in big games? Yes

I don't really see the big deal with his contract.

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There is an over 100-page thread on everyone being furious with our former captain for a myriad of things, one of which is his lack of loyalty to the organization that drafted him and made him a "star" player. But when it comes to rewarding that loyalty to the face of our franchise who has been nothing but loyal to this same organization for nearly 20 years, some people scoff at overpaying him and giving him an extra year. If you want players to be loyal, you have to show that same loyalty to them at the end of their careers.

Sorry but you can't have it both ways. I have absolutely no problem with Marty's contract. I was actually more worried about losing him than Zach and I can't even fathom seeing Marty in another sweater either. If that costs more than what others think he's worth, so be it.

100% agree.

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Did we overpay Marty? Yes

Is the extra million bucks negligible considering we wouldn't have a proper replacement next year? Yes

Does he deserve it after years of being underpaid? Yes

Are the fans and paying customers happy Marty will retire a Devil? Yes

Can Marty still bring it in big games? Yes

I don't really see the big deal with his contract.

These, like most stats are irrelevant to the game.

Do we get bonus points that Marty was UNDERPAID for most of his career here??

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Yuh huh, the reason the Devils didn't sign Ponikarovsky is because they gave Marty 1.5-2m extra.

Show me your statistics that say that.

Of course there is nothing that says that Ponikarovsky didn't re-sign because of that. However, that's a great contract. There's no risk. It's cheap. And Ponikarovsky is the kind of player who won't have the regular stats - his days of being a 20 goal man are probably over - but does a lot to help teams win games.

Right now, the Devils wingers are: Kovalchuk, Zubrus, Clarkson, one of Henrique/Elias, Tedenby, Bernier, Carter, Barch, Janssen, in short, their winger depth is horrendous. There's no one at the AHL level that can be expected to contribute. Now it's July and that could easily change when the season starts in December or January, but it's awful. If they don't sign anyone, I'm going to assume it's because they've spent all the money they want to spend.

As I've said a million times, you can't pay a legacy goaltender. Plenty of Hall of Fame players have ended their careers as 3rd or 4th liners. Chris Chelios was a depth defenseman for many years in his 40s. But there's no such thing as a depth goaltender - there's a starter, and there's a backup, and Brodeur's getting paid starter money. Just because you think Brodeur was underpaid (hint: he wasn't - when he got his new contract, he was one of the highest paid goalies in the league, and signing a 34 year old goalie for 5 years at that money is totally bonkers) doesn't justify giving him too much money when his career could be all but done.

Edited by Triumph

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Of course there is nothing that says that Ponikarovsky didn't re-sign because of that. However, that's a great contract. There's no risk. It's cheap. And Ponikarovsky is the kind of player who won't have the regular stats - his days of being a 20 goal man are probably over - but does a lot to help teams win games.

Right now, the Devils wingers are: Kovalchuk, Zubrus, Clarkson, one of Henrique/Elias, Tedenby, Bernier, Carter, Barch, Janssen, in short, their winger depth is horrendous. There's no one at the AHL level that can be expected to contribute. Now it's July and that could easily change when the season starts in December or January, but it's awful. If they don't sign anyone, I'm going to assume it's because they've spent all the money they want to spend.

This argument would hold a lot of ground if the Devils were even remotely close to the salary cap. If we're talking dumb signings, let's talk about Salvador's contract. If the Devils don't sign anyone else, I'll be pissed, but it won't have anything to do with the fact that "they've spent all the money they want to spend" -- they whiffed on Parise, there's at least 6.5-7.5m in money for next season that they are willing to spend, even if it's pushing it a tad. Signing Marty to a contract to keep him in a New Jersey sweater by overpaying him 1-2 million bucks isn't the reason we didn't re-sign Poni, and it won't be the reason we don't go out and sign anyone of the like.

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This argument would hold a lot of ground if the Devils were even remotely close to the salary cap. If we're talking dumb signings, let's talk about Salvador's contract. If the Devils don't sign anyone else, I'll be pissed, but it won't have anything to do with the fact that "they've spent all the money they want to spend" -- they whiffed on Parise, there's at least 6.5-7.5m in money for next season that they are willing to spend, even if it's pushing it a tad. Signing Marty to a contract to keep him in a New Jersey sweater by overpaying him 1-2 million bucks isn't the reason we didn't re-sign Poni, and it won't be the reason we don't go out and sign anyone of the like.

First of all we know there is an internal budget, so the cap space doesn't really matter. True, Lou was ready to give Zach a lot of money, but he's also a really really good player. I don't think Lou would spend stupid money because of our financial issues, which Parise wouldn't have been. Semin at 7 mill would be a ridiculous overpayment

Edited by SMantzas

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