Z-Man

Because I know some of you love advanced stats

34 posts in this topic

First of all we know there is an internal budget, so the cap space doesn't really matter. True, Lou was ready to give Zach a lot of money, but he's also a really really good player. I don't think Lou would spend stupid money because of our financial issues, which Parise wouldn't have been. Semin at 7 mill would be a ridiculous overpayment

That didn't address my post at all. Triumph is saying that the 1.5m extra we spent on Brodeur is the reason we didn't sign Poni or a guy like that. I call complete and total bullsh!t.

This has nothing to do with Semin

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Well, maybe the extra $2 million could pay for some extra Devils dancers, but otherwise, it's just going into the banks' pockets.

And yes, I realize that all games matter. However, as bad/overrated as one may think Marty is, the fact remains is that he's been good enough to get us into the playoffs virtually every year of his career, and pretty comfortably at that, including last year. If he's playing better as playoff time rolls around we're better off.

I guess what I'm getting at is that Marty's contract is a red herring.

I'm not sure it is the non-issue so many believe it to be. This is why Tri is likely correct:

Let me preface this by saying that I am aware that Lou says he is not given any financial restraints or artificial cap limitations by ownership. Bullsh!t. If so, why not spend to the cap? Or, more precisely, with Lou being a constant media manipulator, why believe anything he says about internal Devils policy? Be it drafts, cap or financial info, Injuries, or how many bathroom breaks Kovy tajes during a game; everything is either a secret or subject to misinformation. I don't see why this is different.

So, making that point, if there is a internal, artificial cap, then spending more on Marty may, in fact, limit Lou's ability to deal with other FAs. It may even have played a role in the Parise scenario, although we will never know and it seems like it didn't. So if ownership says that Lou can only spend 10% above the cap floor, then signing Marty to $4.5 mill and having to plan to resign other players as well as try to possibly sign a FA or two might become all but impossible given those financial constraints.

This is theoretical since none of us are privy to these inner workings, but evidence points to certain conclusions that we are, indeed, operating under an internal cap. What isn't clear is if Marty's contract had a significant, minor, or zero impact on this more constrained cap. I tend to think it had had, or will have, some impact.

As for Poni and Sal, I think these are easily explained as well. In recent years Lou has become prone to panic. Poni was impatient and signed for less thane would have gotten here and Lou panicked and started to resign his own FAs to premium contracts. This is bad managing and, as an aside, makes me want to go back to my original and long held assessment that Lou has lost his touch despite the recent success.

my $.02

Edited by AEWHistory

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Agree with AEWHistory, and it's not just that that could prevent a signing now - if reports were true about NJ's finances being looked at by the league around the deadline were accurate, it could prevent deadline moves. Remember, Kovalchuk is being paid $11,000,000 this year.

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This is ridiculous imo. Then why sign an extra goon if we can't spend to the cap? If the Poni non-signing was about $, then we wouldn't have signed Barch and instead would have used players in the system already if we needed them. Poni was 1.8 million dollars. Don't be ridiculous.

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This is ridiculous imo. Then why sign an extra goon if we can't spend to the cap? If the Poni non-signing was about $, then we wouldn't have signed Barch and instead would have used players in the system already if we needed them. Poni was 1.8 million dollars. Don't be ridiculous.

The Barch signing costs at most $315,000 this year. And Lou is a dolt about goons.

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The Barch signing costs at most $315,000 this year. And Lou is a dolt about goons.

Maybe it's costs that, maybe. But it can't just be explained off with "Lou is a dolt." You maybe could convince me of this if you argue that Lou has another big move to make and that move will put us at this "internal cap." But given that Lou is not senile and that he offered Zach a contract as big as he did, tells me that he is not at any spending limit that far below the cap. It was either you or 731 that made that last point a week ago or so.

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This is ridiculous imo. Then why sign an extra goon if we can't spend to the cap? If the Poni non-signing was about $, then we wouldn't have signed Barch and instead would have used players in the system already if we needed them. Poni was 1.8 million dollars. Don't be ridiculous.

I don't think the Poni non-signing was strictly about cap limitations or money. I think Parise was the top priority and everyone else was waiting in line. HOWEVER, if the Devils COULD spend to the cap, then why not go ahead and sign all of your

FAs simultaneously? Instead, Lou very clearly put them in a priority order. Why? The only two reasons are that he cannot negotiate with more than one party at once (eek if true) or that he is operating under an internal and limited cap. Follow me:

If you have a budget do you go out and get your toys first or pay your grocery bill and rent first and figure out what is left for the extras afterwards? ONLY if you have enough money for everything can you splurge without fear of repercussions, right?

So if we accept your argument that the Devils have no internal cap, then they had every reason and every resource to resign everyone they wanted to

ASAP. OTOH, if they have an internal cap, they have had to prioritize. This easily explains why Poni didn't wait. He likely figured Zach would sign and there would be nothing left for him so he left. On the Devils side, they needed to put Zach first because if they were going to be able to sign Zach they needed to have as much of their resources av available in order to both sign him and then plan to figure who they could still afford afterwards. If they did it the other way around then they would end up signing Poni, Sal, and so on, but they might have lost Zach because they couldn't match a contract because of lack of resources.

Anyway, sorry for the bunch of caps, but I think the evidence is overwhelming that we both have an internal cap and that Lou has, once again, been dissed by a major FA and then freaked out.

As always, since I am not a fly on the wall in their meetings this is only my $.02, but logically I don't see another scenario that makes sense.

Edit: dealing with the Barch signing, remember, this is a fairly meager sum of money for a hockey player, even if the Devils are strapped for cash. One scenario that no one, to my knowledge, has mentioned is that he might be all we can afford! Remember when we were hard up against the cap awhile back and couldn't field a full roster? Not only does Lou have a hard on for goons but I fear that the cap limitations might be such that Barch might be signed so that we actually do have a full roster come the fall. Either that or maybe he is looking for a replacement goon for Cam the Mouth. I dunno. No matter what, I don't like the signing and haven't since I hears about it.

Edited by AEWHistory

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I don't think the Poni non-signing was strictly about cap limitations or money. I think Parise was the top priority and everyone else was waiting in line. HOWEVER, if the Devils COULD spend to the cap, then why not go ahead and sign all of your

FAs simultaneously? Instead, Lou very clearly put them in a priority order. Why? The only two reasons are that he cannot negotiate with more than one party at once (eek if true) or that he is operating under an internal and limited cap. Follow me:

If you have a budget do you go out and get your toys first or pay your grocery bill and rent first and figure out what is left for the extras afterwards? ONLY if you have enough money for everything can you splurge without fear of repercussions, right?

That's the way Lou always does things. Every year we hear that someone say they are not the priority at the moment. Lou also has to decide who is worth it to bring back; he signed the whole 4th line right away because he knew he wanted them. Sykora is waiting because Lou either doesn't want him or wants to wait and see if he's needed as he says. You're bringing in silly metaphors.

So if we accept your argument that the Devils have no internal cap, then they had every reason and every resource to resign everyone they wanted to

ASAP. OTOH, if they have an internal cap, they have had to prioritize. This easily explains why Poni didn't wait. He likely figured Zach would sign and there would be nothing left for him so he left. On the Devils side, they needed to put Zach first because if they were going to be able to sign Zach they needed to have as much of their resources av available in order to both sign him and then plan to figure who they could still afford afterwards. If they did it the other way around then they would end up signing Poni, Sal, and so on, but they might have lost Zach because they couldn't match a contract because of lack of resources.

You're playing with faulty logic. You're saying that if they don't have an internal cap then we should just sign everyone we want asap. But that's not how it works ever for any NHL team. Teams try to get the best deals they can for each player. They also wait and see of course how much one player gets before signing another sometimes. AEW, Poni left for 1.8 million dollars, 1.8! We did not lose Poni because we couldn't afford him under "our" cap. At that price we should have signed him under our internal cap. He left for other reasons of which I won't speculate. If we were really that screwed we would have not re-signed Hedberg.

The whole argument falls apart though when it's made clear that we made a "competitive offer" for Zach. Yes Zach left after Poni, but it proves that we have at least at higher cap limit than we're at now and yet we haven't added any - by your logic, whenever there's room to sign, you do it asap - which is wrong. Lou isn't interested in the current stock of FA's/some probably don't want to come to NJ.

Edit: dealing with the Barch signing, remember, this is a fairly meager sum of money for a hockey player, even if the Devils are strapped for cash. One scenario that no one, to my knowledge, has mentioned is that he might be all we can afford! Remember when we were hard up against the cap awhile back and couldn't field a full roster? Not only does Lou have a hard on for goons but I fear that the cap limitations might be such that Barch might be signed so that we actually do have a full roster come the fall. Either that or maybe he is looking for a replacement goon for Cam the Mouth. I dunno. No matter what, I don't like the signing and haven't since I hears about it.

As far as Barch goes, low money or not - when a team is as in trouble internally with the cap as you are implying, we would not have signed such an expendable player. Now I am not exactly saying the team has no limit on how much it wants to spend - it might be below the cap, but it's not the reason along with the Marty contract that Poni left. Do you really think if we signed Parise we weren't going to spend any more money at all? Anyways, its all a moot point now anyways because we didn't sign Zach so we must have a good amount of cap room even with an "internal cap" and yet we haven't signed anyone. Again, I think more than anything Lou doesn't believe there are a whole bunch of interesting FA's out there or he's is currently working out a deal/trade with someone.

Edited by ben00rs

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Bend00rs,I'm just going to deal with one element because I personally think you are coming from an emotional place vis-a-vis this subject and I'm not looking for an argument. However, saying my argument isn't logical is not just wrong in my opinion, it is provably wrong. A basic logic algorithm is as follows:

A follows B

B Follows C

A leads to C as conclusion

Here is how to use this algorithm:

Socrates (a) is a cow (b)

Cows (b) are purple ©

Socrates (a) is purple ©

Now it is important to remember that one can make an argument that is LOGICAL and FACTUALLy wrong. That is why the above is a LOGICAL statement; it is the facts that are wrong. after all, Socrates the philosopher was not a cow and cows aren't purple. This is what is wrong with your statement. All of our arguments are about facts and the interpretations of these facts, but my argument, while possibly wrong on facts and interpretation, is most certainly logical. Here is one element of my argument:

The devils (a) are not spending up to the cap (b)

Not spending up to the cap (b) means a team has an internal cap ©

the Devils (a) have an internal cap ©

Here is the part you specifically called faulty logic:

The devils (a) are trying to resign players in a very specific order (b)

trying to resign players in a very specific order (b) indicates an internal team cap ©

The Devils (a) have an internal team cap ©

These are both logical statements and a logical conclusions. End of story. What isn't clear is if the devils are, in fact, going to spend up to the cap and if they have an internal cap. But these are FACTS.

So the problem with my argument is not that it isn't logical, it is that the facts are not provable. Unfortunately, your argument suffers from the same exact problem, although I am less sure it is a logical argument, I think it is an emotional argument, hence reply.

PS- yes, I am an academic. However, I apologize for the lecture and I apologize doubly if this comes across as condescending because I sincerely do not mean it to.

That's the way Lou always does things. Every year we hear that someone say they are not the priority at the moment. Lou also has to decide who is worth it to bring back; he signed the whole 4th line right away because he knew he wanted them. Sykora is waiting because Lou either doesn't want him or wants to wait and see if he's needed as he says. You're bringing in silly metaphors.

You're playing with faulty logic. You're saying that if they don't have an internal cap then we should just sign everyone we want asap. But that's not how it works ever for any NHL team. Teams try to get the best deals they can for each player. They also wait and see of course how much one player gets before signing another sometimes. AEW, Poni left for 1.8 million dollars, 1.8! We did not lose Poni because we couldn't afford him under "our" cap. At that price we should have signed him under our internal cap. He left for other reasons of which I won't speculate. If we were really that screwed we would have not re-signed Hedberg.

The whole argument falls apart though when it's made clear that we made a "competitive offer" for Zach. Yes Zach left after Poni, but it proves that we have at least at higher cap limit than we're at now and yet we haven't added any - by your logic, whenever there's room to sign, you do it asap - which is wrong. Lou isn't interested in the current stock of FA's/some probably don't want to come to NJ.

As far as Barch goes, low money or not - when a team is as in trouble internally with the cap as you are implying, we would not have signed such an expendable player. Now I am not exactly saying the team has no limit on how much it wants to spend - it might be below the cap, but it's not the reason along with the Marty contract that Poni left. Do you really think if we signed Parise we weren't going to spend any more money at all? Anyways, its all a moot point now anyways because we didn't sign Zach so we must have a good amount of cap room even with an "internal cap" and yet we haven't signed anyone. Again, I think more than anything Lou doesn't believe there are a whole bunch of interesting FA's out there or he's is currently working out a deal/trade with someone.

Edited by AEWHistory

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