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nmigliore

2012 MLB Postseason Thread

67 posts in this topic

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Playoff time!! Here are my useless predictions:

AL Wild Card: Braves over Cardinals

- Medlen has been unstoppable since entering the Braves' rotation in late July: 83.2 IP, 0.97 ERA, 8.4 K/BB.

NL Wild Card: Rangers over Orioles

- Darvish was a 5+ WAR pitcher this season; not a shabby debut. Orioles likely starter: Steve Johnson (38 career innings in the Majors) or the incredibly mediocre Joe Saunders. Advantage: Texas.

ALDS: Yankees over Rangers

- Like the Yanks' lineup and 3rd starter more.

ALDS: Tigers over Athletics

- Nice, surprising year for the A's but Detroit has the best pitcher in baseball and one of the best position players in baseball. The supporting cast, especially in the rotation, is really good.

NLDS: Nationals over Braves

- Nats will just get by, but no Strasburg will take it's toll in the next round.

NLDS: Reds over Giants

- You could go either way here. I like the Reds a tad more because of the Melky Cabrera suspension.

ALCS: Yankees over Tigers

- Tempted to pick the Tigers here because I REALLY like their rotation but still going to roll with the superior lineup and Pettitte train.

NLCS: Reds over Nationals

- I wonder what will be going through Strasburg's mind when he watches this series unfold.

World Series: Yankees over Reds

- I have such little confidence in all of these picks this year, frankly. Maybe that's a good thing and we're in for a hell of a postseason. Anyway, to me, the Yanks' run is all dependent on Pettitte. If he pitches well, it's going to be difficult to stop them; he's made 12 starts this season and has looked very good (3.48 FIP, 2.87 xFIP). Sabathia and Kuroda are great, their lineup is still a juggernaut (#1 in wRC+ in baseball), and their bullpen was top 10 in FIP. Tough to go against that.

----

The Wild Card playoff games kick off tomorrow; Cardinals (Lohse) @ Braves (Medlen) at 5pm ET on TBS followed by Orioles (Johnson or Saunders) @ Rangers (Darvish), 8:30pm ET on TBS. Enjoy the games.

Edited by nmigliore

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Your NL and AL are backwards.

The Rangers are a mess.

i'm looking for another Tigers over Yankees if they get that far!

& the Tigers finally winning the championship again!... probably over the Reds.

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Atlanta fans going ape sh!t over a bad infield fly call, throwing stuff on the field.. wow.

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And of course now this is going to be ammo for those who hate the one-game playoff...'look, the Braves were six games ahead of the Cards and lost on a bad call', ignoring the fact the Braves made THREE errors of their own in the game. They shot themselves in the foot. Besides, you don't want the lottery of a one-game playoff, tough - win the division. Put some value behind it, otherwise what's the point of having divisions?

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The fans rained down more garbage after the game. Stay classy, Atlanta.....

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Orioles win! Great start to my predictions (0-2). :lol:

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Part of me hates that the Orioles won and will likely be cannon fodder for the Yankees, and part of me realizes the Rangers would pretty much have been the same thing too, especially without Colby Lewis. Plus on the off chance Buck could ever stick it to the Yankees... :lol:

People can't complain about the Rangers losing a one-game playoff at least. All they needed was one win out of FOUR games in a row.

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No sympathy for the Braves, even though they did get screwed on the call. Plus it wasn't even a run scoring play, who's to say the next guy doesn't GIDP?

I have a love/hate relationship with the 2nd wildcard. I like how it keeps more markets interested late in the season, but I hate the 1 game playoff. Why not a best 2 out of 3. First game the day after the final game of the regular season, then right into the real playoffs.

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Two HUGE homers by Ibanez wins Game 3 for the Yanks... yikes, awful loss for the Orioles.

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Two HUGE homers by Ibanez wins Game 3 for the Yanks... yikes, awful loss for the Orioles.

+.827 WPA. Raul Ibanez just had the fifth biggest playoff game in baseball history. With two at-bats.

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Also just saw Dave Cameron tweet this: Raul Ibanez had an 84 wRC+ in low leverage situations this year, 151 wRC+ in high leverage situations.

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Also just saw Dave Cameron tweet this: Raul Ibanez had an 84 wRC+ in low leverage situations this year, 151 wRC+ in high leverage situations.

Not that a 102 wRC+ from a plodding corner outfielder is anything to write home about, but I was surprised he even had anything left in the tank. With his poor 2011 and age, I thought he was completely cooked. So much for that.

Edited by nmigliore

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+.827 WPA. Raul Ibanez just had the fifth biggest playoff game in baseball history. With two at-bats.

Just curious, fifth by what definition? There probably aren't many guys who've both tied and won the game with HR's though.

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Just curious, fifth by what definition? There probably aren't many guys who've both tied and won the game with HR's though.

WPA (Win Probability Added): http://www.fangraphs...x.php/misc/wpa/

It might even be higher than 5th, depending on how B-Ref calculates it. The list of the other 4 guys:

David Freese, 2011 World Series, Game 6: .969

Kirk Gibson, 1988 World Series, Game 1: .870

Steve Garvey, 1984 NLCS, Game 4: .854

Lance Berkman, 2011 World Series Game 6: .832

Charlie Keller, 1941 World Series Game 4: .826

Edited by nmigliore

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lol at two guys from the same game being on the list.

In other news, Dusty on his way to another gag-job in Cinci. This guy's the modern-day Gene Mauch, only Dusty did get to the series once - and the Giants blew a 5-0 lead in the 7th inning of the clincher lol. My god, if they ever lost all three at home against the Giants of all teams after blowing the doors off them in SF, that'd be unspeakably bad, Cueto or no Cueto.

And the whole baseball world is giggling 'I told you so' to the Nationals about the Strausberg nonsense.

Edited by NJDevs4978

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And the whole baseball world is giggling 'I told you so' to the Nationals about the Strausberg nonsense.

It was inevitably going to bite them in the ass. I have no issue with trying to protect his arm, they just did it the wrong way. Teams also shouldn't take getting #1 playoff seeds for granted. When you have your chance, go for it, don't get too cute; just ask the 2006 Mets when things were looking so positive and rosy after they dominated the NL that year. You never know what will happen, especially in the new format where you can bounced out of the dance without blinking an eye (see: Rangers, Texas).

Edited by nmigliore

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They should have either sat him at the beginning of the year, the way the Braves did with Medlen (also on an innings count, obviously he got handled differently) or sat him for a month around the All-Star break when it was obvious they were in good position to make the playoffs.

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Valverde implodes! A's are still alive and have a pretty good chance to win and force a Game 5, wow.

Edit: A's win!!!

Edited by nmigliore

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I have to give the A's fans a lot of credit. They make that extremely horrible ballpark seem like an amazing place. Well done.

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Posey just busted my NL Championship pick. :lol:

Reds fans must be miserable... up 2-0 headed home just needing to win 1 out of 3 and they are about to blow it. Terrible.

Edited by nmigliore

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I don't know whether to laugh at Dusty or feel bad for him. I do feel bad for Cinci fans though, it's no fun when you spit the bit at home.

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And the Reds' chokejob is complete. 3 losses in a row at home to blow the series. Giants move on to the NLCS!

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