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SMantzas

2013 NHL Draft

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Sweet, one counter-example.  The issues with this are legion:

 

A:  Jimmy Howard's first season in the AHL was 2005-06, the season of the Endless Power Play, and save percentages were down across professional North American leagues that year.

 

B:  Nowhere did I say that players will have great save percentages in the AHL - these are rare, and the AHL tends to have lower save percentages in general.

 

C:  Save percentage has a ton of year to year variance.  It's not hard for luck to change a .910 true talent goalie (if even such a thing exists) into a .920 or .900 goalie.  The difference between these two is very large - 24 goals over 1200 shots.  

 

D:  Players sometimes improve substantially at the NHL level, but this can't be counted on.  It's not predictable.  Could Jack Campbell substantially improve at the NHL level?  Yes.  But that shouldn't be counted on.  Since being drafted, Jack Campbell hasn't put up a league average save percentage at any level.  It's just difficult to argue that that will lead to his being an NHL starter.

 

Like I said, it was off the top of my head.  If I looked around more, I'm sure there are other good NHL goalies that put up mediocre save percentages in the AHL, or more precisely, something in the range of .905.  The point is Jimmy Howard's AHL save percentage as an older player is not significantly better than Jack Campbell. 

 

I mean if you want to use HF's assessment and ranking of Jack Campbell as some kind of whipping post for HF's usefulness or lack thereof, more power to you.  But it is kind of strange to fly off the handle about a site that predicts a highly drafted 20-21 year old AHL goalie with a winning record, a 2.65 GAA and .905 save percentage to be a starting goalie in the NHL.   

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Like I said, it was off the top of my head.  If I looked around more, I'm sure there are other good NHL goalies that put up mediocre save percentages in the AHL, or more precisely, something in the range of .905.  The point is Jimmy Howard's AHL save percentage as an older player is not significantly better than Jack Campbell. 

 

I mean if you want to use HF's assessment and ranking of Jack Campbell as some kind of whipping post for HF's usefulness or lack thereof, more power to you.  But it is kind of strange to fly off the handle about a site that predicts a highly drafted 20-21 year old AHL goalie with a winning record, a 2.65 GAA and .905 save percentage to be a starting goalie in the NHL.   

 

Because he has two other years of subpar goaltending in the OHL also?  Let's just data snoop one year, forgetting about the other two years.  And they don't take this into account at all.  To me, his draft position has almost no relevance when you consider how many goalies in the NHL were 1st round picks.  (Not all that many - Price, Fleury, Rask, Lehtonen, Varlamov, Brodeur, Luongo/Schneider, Ward)

 

Corey Pronman is about the only person worth a damn when it comes to prospects - he understands that forwards are easier to evaluate than D, and therefore better to draft early, and goalies are just about impossible to evaluate at all.  I could pick out lots of other flaws with the site, but their opinion on goalies is the easiest.  They also weight where a player was picked more than they should.

Edited by Triumph

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Because he has two other years of subpar goaltending in the OHL also?  Let's just data snoop one year, forgetting about the other two years.  And they don't take this into account at all.  To me, his draft position has almost no relevance when you consider how many goalies in the NHL were 1st round picks.  (Not all that many - Price, Fleury, Rask, Lehtonen, Varlamov, Brodeur, Luongo/Schneider, Ward)

 

Corey Pronman is about the only person worth a damn when it comes to prospects - he understands that forwards are easier to evaluate than D, and therefore better to draft early, and goalies are just about impossible to evaluate at all.  I could pick out lots of other flaws with the site, but their opinion on goalies is the easiest.  They also weight where a player was picked more than they should.

 

That's about 1/3 of all starting goalies, which isn't that bad. 

 

They're also getting better so far as relying on draft position.  Take a look at a lot of the first round picks from last year's draft and they're not rated so high relative to other lower drafted players. 

 

Really though, I don't take HF as gospel, and never have.  It's a nice convenient way for someone that doesn't watch a ton of non-NHL hockey to get a sense of who the good prospects are.  If they over rate or under rate this or that player, which every single analyst does it's not a big deal. 

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Future Considerations Final Top 30

 

1). D Seth Jones, Portland, WHL, 6-4, 205
2). C/RW Nathan MacKinnon, Halifax, QMJHL, 6-0, 180
3). C/LW Jonathan Drouin, Halifax, QMJHL, 5-11, 175
4). C Aleksander Barkov, Tappara, SM-liiga, 6-2, 205
5). RW Valeri Nichushkin, Traktor Chelyabinsk, KHL, 6-3, 195
6). C Elias Lindholm, Brynas, Elitserien, 6-0, 185
7). D Darnell Nurse, Sault Ste. Marie, OHL, 6-5, 195
8). C Sean Monahan, Ottawa, OHL, 6-2, 195
9). LW Hunter Shinkaruk, Medicine Hat, WHL, 5-10, 170
10). C/LW Max Domi, London, OHL, 5-10, 195

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On D, you can't really count on anyone other than Larsson and Merrill to be above-average NHL defensemen any time soon, or more precisely better in the long term than any of the other defensemen that are currently on the roster.  In other words, if you consider Andy Greene to be currently the best defenseman on the roster, only Larsson and Merrill have a decent to good shot at being better than him in the medium to long term.

 

Don't get me wrong, I like the other guys, especially Severson.  They're just not shoo-in improvements over what is currently there.

I guess I'm higher on Severson than most, but I could see him being better than Merrill. We don't need everyone to be all around dmen. Gelinas is very skilled offensively, Urbom looks like he could be a mainstay on the PK if he sorts some things out. A scout on HF says Scarlett "easily" has NHL potential, so you can't discount him. NJ should have a good, young and CHEAP defense the next ten years. 

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I guess I'm higher on Severson than most, but I could see him being better than Merrill. We don't need everyone to be all around dmen. Gelinas is very skilled offensively, Urbom looks like he could be a mainstay on the PK if he sorts some things out. A scout on HF says Scarlett "easily" has NHL potential, so you can't discount him. NJ should have a good, young and CHEAP defense the next ten years. 

Very much agree with this. One more year in the WHL and he'll be in the AHL and be easy to compare with Merrill. As of right now, I'd rate him higher anyway.

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Very much agree with this. One more year in the WHL and he'll be in the AHL and be easy to compare with Merrill. As of right now, I'd rate him higher anyway.

With the season he put up, it gets me very excited about our defense in the years to come. I just want to see some of these guys get a real shot at sticking with the big club instead of a couple games here and there.

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With the season he put up, it gets me very excited about our defense in the years to come. I just want to see some of these guys get a real shot at sticking with the big club instead of a couple games here and there.

 

I'm cautiously optimistic about Severson.  Coming from someone who admittedly doesn't watch any junior hockey and is not a scout, there are at least superficial comparisons to Shea Weber.  Same junior team, both second round picks, similar physical build, same type of skill set, and Severson put up better traditional numbers (points, plus/minus) than Weber at the same stage.    Plus Severson is still only 18. 

 

Still, Severson was a late second round pick in a mediocre draft, and didn't slip for extracurricular activities like Merrill.  I understand that draft position isn't the end all, be all, but obviously people who know a lot more about the sport than I do felt that there were 60 players that were better than him. 

 

Basically, unless you're talking about someone with top ten pick skills, you can't count on them to be anything more than a servicable to good NHLer, and certainly not a savior. 

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I'm cautiously optimistic about Severson.  Coming from someone who admittedly doesn't watch any junior hockey and is not a scout, there are at least superficial comparisons to Shea Weber.  Same junior team, both second round picks, similar physical build, same type of skill set, and Severson put up better traditional numbers (points, plus/minus) than Weber at the same stage.    Plus Severson is still only 18. 

 

Still, Severson was a late second round pick in a mediocre draft, and didn't slip for extracurricular activities like Merrill.  I understand that draft position isn't the end all, be all, but obviously people who know a lot more about the sport than I do felt that there were 60 players that were better than him. 

 

Basically, unless you're talking about someone with top ten pick skills, you can't count on them to be anything more than a servicable to good NHLer, and certainly not a savior. 

I agree, but you just can't help but be excited. I mean, we have Merril, Urbom, Gelinas, Severson, Scarlett plus more and you can really still count Larsson in there. If we can turn 50% of our d prospects into NHL players and 1 of the guys not named Larsson becomes a top 4 d-man for us, we'll be doing pretty good.

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I agree, but you just can't help but be excited. I mean, we have Merril, Urbom, Gelinas, Severson, Scarlett plus more and you can really still count Larsson in there. If we can turn 50% of our d prospects into NHL players and 1 of the guys not named Larsson becomes a top 4 d-man for us, we'll be doing pretty good.

 

I guess what I'm getting at  is that merely turning prospects into NHL players doesn't really advance the ball all that much.  For all the crap that Volchenkhov and Salvador get, they are NHL players too.  And even if they're not, there are always NHL players of "good enough" quality to be had.  Hell, you could call Peter Harrold an NHL defenseman too.  Basically, the Urboms and Gelinas of the world aren't going to lead you to the promsied land.

 

To get back to being a perennial Cup contending team, we'll need a few homeruns.  On defense, Larsson needs to turn into what he was projected to be, and Merrill will have to exceed expectations.  At forward, Matteau will need to be at least as dependable as Zubrus.  And more importantly, whoever we pick this year needs to be a bona fide scorer or play maker, rather than a "nice" player of the Josefson mold.  It's hard to overstate the importance of getting this pick right.

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I guess what I'm getting at  is that merely turning prospects into NHL players doesn't really advance the ball all that much.  For all the crap that Volchenkhov and Salvador get, they are NHL players too.  And even if they're not, there are always NHL players of "good enough" quality to be had.  Hell, you could call Peter Harrold an NHL defenseman too.  Basically, the Urboms and Gelinas of the world aren't going to lead you to the promsied land.

 

To get back to being a perennial Cup contending team, we'll need a few homeruns.  On defense, Larsson needs to turn into what he was projected to be, and Merrill will have to exceed expectations.  At forward, Matteau will need to be at least as dependable as Zubrus.  And more importantly, whoever we pick this year needs to be a bona fide scorer or play maker, rather than a "nice" player of the Josefson mold.  It's hard to overstate the importance of getting this pick right.

Understood, but even if these guys are only as good as what we got, they'll at least be cheaper for a while. I'd be fine with Volch if it didn't cost $4.25M on the cap.

I think you're greatly exaggerating our need for the prospects to turn out well though. Larsson not being what he was projected to be would suck, but he's not going to be awful either. No way he is anything less than a 3-4 d-man in a few years. Merril doesn't have to exceed expectations. Expectations are for him to be a top d-man and PP QB, if he's 1 of those 2 things, I'm happy. Then after that, if we can turn 1-2 more guys into a top 6 d-men, we're ok. We're thin up front, but that's something we'll probably have to address via FA in the near-term. I think Lou will be able to find the prospects he wants to keep vs ones he's willing to part with and can find us a trade or two in the next couple years to further bolster the offense.

I don't think this is terribly far-fetched. I also disagree that we need another play maker, we have Elias,Loktionov is supposed to be a pass first guy, JJ too, Zajac, we need scoring wingers, not playmakers. Henrique put up playmaker-esque stats last year, but I'm not convinced that's how he'll be the rest of his career, he's got a decent shot.

If anything would be a boon to this team would be turning Boucher into a top 6 winger. That's the kind of player we need, he may not be that guy, but if he was, it'd be a great help for sure.

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I can't really get all that upset about the future.  It doesn't look horrible nor does it look great, and this is how it is for 20 NHL teams.  All you can do is get better.  Having a good young defense clears the way to spend a lot on offense or goaltending.  You just don't know what's coming.  Maybe the Devils will suffer a horrible series of injuries, maybe they'll have a great player land in their laps.  Were the Sharks counting on getting Joe Thornton, the Rangers on landing Ryan McDonagh?  Only one or two teams can truly go the way of the Penguins or Oilers - the rest of the league has to rely on being smarter than the other teams, rather than being dumber.

Edited by Triumph

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I can't really get all that upset about the future.  It doesn't look horrible nor does it look great, and this is how it is for 20 NHL teams.  All you can do is get better.  Having a good young defense clears the way to spend a lot on offense or goaltending.  You just don't know what's coming.  Maybe the Devils will suffer a horrible series of injuries, maybe they'll have a great player land in their laps.  Were the Sharks counting on getting Joe Thornton, the Rangers on landing Ryan McDonagh?  Only one or two teams can truly go the way of the Penguins or Oilers - the rest of the league has to rely on being smarter than the other teams, rather than being dumber.

 

I think what Nashville had up until this year and what it looks to have in the future with Forsberg and potentially Barkov encapsulates perfectly what you're getting at.  A very well run organization that had a little bit of luck over the years.  They didn't come all too close to winning the Cup, but the pieces they had put them in a position to do so had everything gone right.

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I think what Nashville had up until this year and what it looks to have in the future with Forsberg and potentially Barkov encapsulates perfectly what you're getting at.  A very well run organization that had a little bit of luck over the years.  They didn't come all too close to winning the Cup, but the pieces they had put them in a position to do so had everything gone right.

 

i think their internal budget really hurt them too, they lost a few key guys to free agency and they couldnt spend to the cap like most team could, plus the radulov thing certainly didnt help.

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@CraigCustance: Nichushkin says his KHL contract terminated. Wants to play in NHL next season.

 

all but assures he's gone in top 5.

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@CraigCustance: Nichushkin says his KHL contract terminated. Wants to play in NHL next season.

 

all but assures he's gone in top 5.

 

I don't think that's a guarantee at all, with Nashville not listing him among their top prospects.  I doubt he slips to 9, but there's still the KHL bogeyman down the road.

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I don't think that's a guarantee at all, with Nashville not listing him among their top prospects. I doubt he slips to 9, but there's still the KHL bogeyman down the road.

not if that contract is terminated right?

If be very surprised if he makes it past 5 or 6

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I don't think that's a guarantee at all, with Nashville not listing him among their top prospects.  I doubt he slips to 9, but there's still the KHL bogeyman down the road.

 

there's always the dumb russian fear even though Radulov's the only guy who's gone and there are more transfer agreements in place now once they're on a contract (which Radulov wasn't)

 

aaaaand Portzline just said he might not play in the AHL and wants to go directly to the NHL. Welp even Chesnokov said a drop's coming after that

Edited by DH26

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Another thing to think about in this year's draft is that Buffalo is drafting 1 spot before the Devils (8) and then at 16 from the trade with Minnesota from this season. Since one/some of Pulock, Ristolainen, Zadorov, and Nurse will almost definitely be available at 16, I wouldn't be surprised if they keep that last great forward prospect from falling to 9. It's another reason I'm hoping the Devils find a reasonable way to trade up, but we'll have to see what happens. I wouldn't be unhappy with Shinkaruk. I actually like him, but I don't think he's the immediate solution the Devils are looking for. But I would be unhappy if they don't go BPA because that's more important to me than drafting a forward just because it's a position we need.

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I just got Future Considerations Draft Guide. In their 2 round mock they have the Devils taking RW Valeri Nichushkin at 9th overall and C Jacob de la Rose at 39th overall.

 

Re: Nichushkin

DRAFT NEEDS: They need size and skill on the wings.
NOTES: Wanting to make sure they make a good pick in front of the home crowd, the Devils just might have hit a home run as they address the organizations top need. The ‘Russian Factor’ obviously led to Nichushkin’s slight drop here but New Jersey looks to have selected a top-5 talent with this selection.

 

Re: de la Rose

DRAFT NEEDS: They need more high end talent up front.
NOTES: The Devils get a prototypical New Jersey type of prospect with their second round selection as the big de la Rose plays hard and is not afraid to play physical.

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That is honestly the absolute best case scenario, imo. To see that a neutral source sees that as a realistic possibility for New Jersey is very encouraging! Obviously Nichushkin would be great here, but I really like de la Rose too.

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Devils had a combine with Robert Hagg today, really not a player i'd want the team to select, not only is Hagg a defenseman which we have too much of, I think taking Hagg at 9th is a big reach, I think Hagg is a more likely pick in the 16-20 range.I just got Future Considerations Draft Guide. In their 2 round mock they have the Devils taking RW Valeri Nichushkin at 9th overall and C Jacob de la Rose at 39th overall. Re: Nichushkin Re: de la RoseNichushkin would be a perfect fit on the ice for this team, but the vibe I've gotten from him, I don't know if I like his attitude. He seems like he cares more about the name on the back than the crest on the front.

If anything, they might have an eye on Haag as a second round pick.

The Nichuskin prediction probably was made when the assumption was that he would be in the KHL for two years. He'll be gone by 5.

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Final edition of Craigslist:

1. D Seth Jones
2. LW Jonathan Drouin
3. C Nathan MacKinnon
4. C Aleksander Barkov
5. LW Valeri Nichushkin
6. C Sean Monahan
7. G Zachary Fucale
8. D Darnell Nurse
9. C Elias Lindholm
10. LW Max Domi

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No more Swedes. 

I'm being only partially sarcastic:  I'd much rather the Devils draft a big NA kid than someone from the SEL or a related league.  Tedenby and Josefson have left a pretty sour taste in my mouth, although Larsson does looks solid.

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No more Swedes. 

I'm being only partially sarcastic:  I'd much rather the Devils draft a big NA kid than someone from the SEL or a related league.  Tedenby and Josefson have left a pretty sour taste in my mouth, although Larsson does looks solid.

Im sure sens fans are please with zibanejad and silfverberg. Not because other picks didnt pan out that its because of their nationality

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