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GDT:2/10/13 New Jersey Devils @ Pittsburgh Penguins

167 posts in this topic

I went to check out why someone may feel that way about Kovy.  

 

Kovy's Corsi isn't very good this year and his PDO is 1036, so other teams are outshooting the Devils when he's out there and the Devils goalies have been crazy good when he's been out there, which is where his +/- is benefiting which has more to do with randomness than his own play.

 

On the flip side Kovy is only starting in the offensive zone 46.8% of the time but finishing in the offensive zone 50.0% of the time, which is pretty nice.

 

Zajac's Corsi is pretty good and his offensize zone start % is 49.5% so I wonder if a lot of Kovy's bad Corsi is due to exta defensive zone starts with the 4th line.

 

Kovy is also 15th in points per 60 minutes.  That's unrelated to +/- but I think it shows how useless it is putting him out there with the 4th line.

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Is Kovalchuk's back-checking and defensive zone play way better than in past years?  Absolutely.  You'll get no argument from me on that score.  What's gone down is his offensive play.  It's been getting better in recent games, but the Devils are still only getting 46% of the shots taken with him on the ice at even strength.  Players who are outshot by that large a margin tend to be minus players.  Part of it is, as 731 said, playing with the 4th line (the Devils are getting 29% of the shot attempts with Kovalchuk and Ryan Carter on the ice, 35% with Kovalchuk and Stephen Gionta in the very brief time they've had together).  But yeah, unless the offense picks up, it's going to be another minus year for Ilya.

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Re:  the +/- thing...as Tri pointed out some time ago, when a player gets that + or - for being on ice when his team gives up or scored a goal, he usually has five other teammates on the ice with him, including his goalie.  Sometimes it's all about being in the right place at the right time or the wrong place at the wrong time, as far as that stat goes...the goalie can give up a softie, one player can make a mistake that causes the other players on the ice to get a -1 on any given goal.  Or of course, a forward can get the puck in his own end, make a couple of phenomenal moves, put the puck home, then BAM!  Everyone who watched as that player did his thing gets a +1.

 

The baffling case this season remains Jacob Josefson.  The Devils have five players at -1, a sixth at -2, and there's Josefson at -6.  He has yet to be a plus player in any given game this season (to his credit, he has been even in 7 games, -1 in four other games, in -2 in just one game).  The guess here is that he can EVER find a way to score a little, he'll find his way back up to even.  But with just 12 SOG for the season, and not looking like he has great hands, the guess here is that probably isn't happening anytime soon.

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It's looking like JJ might just become that prototypical Madden-esque 3rd line center in a few years. Just doesn't seem to have any finish.

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Re:  the +/- thing...as Tri pointed out some time ago, when a player gets that + or - for being on ice when his team gives up or scored a goal, he usually has five other teammates on the ice with him, including his goalie.  Sometimes it's all about being in the right place at the right time or the wrong place at the wrong time, as far as that stat goes...the goalie can give up a softie, one player can make a mistake that causes the other players on the ice to get a -1 on any given goal.  Or of course, a forward can get the puck in his own end, make a couple of phenomenal moves, put the puck home, then BAM!  Everyone who watched as that player did his thing gets a +1.

 

The baffling case this season remains Jacob Josefson.  The Devils have five players at -1, a sixth at -2, and there's Josefson at -6.  He has yet to be a plus player in any given game this season (to his credit, he has been even in 7 games, -1 in four other games, in -2 in just one game).  The guess here is that he can EVER find a way to score a little, he'll find his way back up to even.  But with just 12 SOG for the season, and not looking like he has great hands, the guess here is that probably isn't happening anytime soon.

 

Josefson and other players with him on the ice are shooting 2.56%.  The Devils' goalies are also stopping 88% of shots with Josefson on the ice, versus a much higher percentage when everyone else is on the ice.  It's a fluke.  Just like it was a fluke last year when Devils' goalies stopped 97% of shots when Josefson was on the ice.

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Josefson and other players with him on the ice are shooting 2.56%.  The Devils' goalies are also stopping 88% of shots with Josefson on the ice, versus a much higher percentage when everyone else is on the ice.  It's a fluke.  Just like it was a fluke last year when Devils' goalies stopped 97% of shots when Josefson was on the ice.

 

2.56% for and 12% against...yep, that would do it.  Kind of odd that no one else is in his neighborhood.  And that's not an indictment on Josefson...just that the anomaly really is that odd.

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Is Kovalchuk's back-checking and defensive zone play way better than in past years?  Absolutely.  You'll get no argument from me on that score.  What's gone down is his offensive play.  It's been getting better in recent games, but the Devils are still only getting 46% of the shots taken with him on the ice at even strength.  Players who are outshot by that large a margin tend to be minus players.  Part of it is, as 731 said, playing with the 4th line (the Devils are getting 29% of the shot attempts with Kovalchuk and Ryan Carter on the ice, 35% with Kovalchuk and Stephen Gionta in the very brief time they've had together).  But yeah, unless the offense picks up, it's going to be another minus year for Ilya.

 

You're putting WAY too much into those stats WAYYYYY too much, it's ridiculous, bringing up stats does not tell all the story unlike baseball or wtv.

 

A shot on goal does not mean that all players on the ice we're Mario Lemieux out of a sudden for that sequence, you can cycle the puck and have possession and simply come near a scoring chance, miss the net, miss the puck on a pass in front, get tripped, etc etc. While you can just happen to be on the ice when a player shoot the puck in the chest of a goalie from the blue line to get an offensive zone faceoff. Or you just get on the ice and go to the net and here come a rebound at the door step and you put it in. Way too many variables to put that much faith in those shooting % stats.

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You're putting WAY too much into those stats WAYYYYY too much, it's ridiculous, bringing up stats does not tell all the story unlike baseball or wtv.

 

A shot on goal does not mean that all players on the ice we're Mario Lemieux out of a sudden for that sequence, you can cycle the puck and have possession and simply come near a scoring chance, miss the net, miss the puck on a pass in front, get tripped, etc etc. While you can just happen to be on the ice when a player shoot the puck in the chest of a goalie from the blue line to get an offensive zone faceoff. Or you just get on the ice and go to the net and here come a rebound at the door step and you put it in. Way too many variables to put that much faith in those shooting % stats.

 

In fainess, and I think Tri will correct if I'm wrong, I think the numbers Tri looks up factors in ALL shots taken, including ones that miss the net. 

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In fainess, and I think Tri will correct if I'm wrong, I think the numbers Tri looks up factors in ALL shots taken, including ones that miss the net. 

 

even then, OF COURSE if you simply look at it, "they took 5 shots while i was on the ice and we only took 1" it doesnt look good and you need in most case to shoot the puck to score".

 

It's STILL not telling the story and eventhough it can be a "good indication" it's seriously not everything and you can't put too much into it. There's wayyyyy too many variables.

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even then, OF COURSE if you simply look at it, "they took 5 shots while i was on the ice and we only took 1" it doesnt look good and you need in most case to shoot the puck to score".

 

It's STILL not telling the story and eventhough it can be a "good indication" it's seriously not everything and you can't put too much into it. There's wayyyyy too many variables.

 

He's not saying it's everything.  He's saying players who tend to be on the ice for a lower percentage of shots taken than their opponents take tend to be minus players.  Kind of makes sense.

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You're putting WAY too much into those stats WAYYYYY too much, it's ridiculous, bringing up stats does not tell all the story unlike baseball or wtv.

 

A shot on goal does not mean that all players on the ice we're Mario Lemieux out of a sudden for that sequence, you can cycle the puck and have possession and simply come near a scoring chance, miss the net, miss the puck on a pass in front, get tripped, etc etc. While you can just happen to be on the ice when a player shoot the puck in the chest of a goalie from the blue line to get an offensive zone faceoff. Or you just get on the ice and go to the net and here come a rebound at the door step and you put it in. Way too many variables to put that much faith in those shooting % stats.

 

Okay, great.  Kovalchuk has been a negative player since the Fenwick era began (that's 2007-08).  Looking at his numbers between then and now (cut off at 2011-12), Kovalchuk's team has taken 47% of the shots while he's on the ice.  According to behindthenet, he's -24 goals 5 on 5 since 2007-08.  Now unfortunately this doesn't remove empty net goals, so I went and looked at timeonice, which does, and there he's -22.  Now you're right that Kovalchuk doesn't have a huge sample this year, but I'm not counting on him becoming some kind of territorial dynamo - if he can get himself up to 50% I'll be satisfied.

Edited by Triumph

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 you need in most case to shoot the puck to score".

 

I'm trying to think of when you don't need to shoot the puck to score?

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I'm trying to think of when you don't need to shoot the puck to score?

 

Sometimes, a slapper goes in off your ass.  Tough way to score goals, but they count.

 

Or my favorite:  Simply being the last player on your team to touch the puck before a delayed penalty occured and the other team stupidly put the puck into their own net.

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Sometimes, a slapper goes in off your ass.  Tough way to score goals, but they count.

 

Or my favorite:  Simply being the last player on your team to touch the puck before a delayed penalty occured and the other team stupidly put the puck into their own net.

 

Rob Ramage did that with the Rockies, as did a Flyer against the Devils.  In both instances, it led to the goalies being credited with a goal (Billy Smith, and Brodeur of course). 

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Rob Ramage did that with the Rockies, as did a Flyer against the Devils.  In both instances, it led to the goalies being credited with a goal (Billy Smith, and Brodeur of course). 

 

I remember that.  Flyers player was coming out of his own zone, seemingly out of harm's way, when Sergei Brylin forechecked him.  The guy lost control, the puck hit a skate (or two?), and it went sliding backwards into their own net.

 

Only way that scenario could have been bettered is if it'd happened against the Rangers...

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Sometimes, a slapper goes in off your ass.  Tough way to score goals, but they count.

 

Or my favorite:  Simply being the last player on your team to touch the puck before a delayed penalty occured and the other team stupidly put the puck into their own net.

Yeah, but a shot is still taken, which kinda was my point. Of course there's the "guy scores into his own own net because goalie is pulled"-nonsense that happens, but still.

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