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nmigliore

Official 2013 New York Mets Thread

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lol what else is new.  I'm not blaming this on the WBC though, Wright's not a pitcher.  You can adapt to the WBC as a hitter, you're going to get your AB's and fielding time in Spring Training anyway.

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If he only misses 2 weeks worth of games, it's not that bad. Turner isn't amazing but he's been about a league average hitter at the plate the last couple of years, so he's a pretty adequate fill-in.

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We know the story with this year's team...they weren't winning much WITH Wright, and this is only Year 1 of a long-term deal.  If they take it extra-careful with Wright, that's the right way to go...even if it means the Mets could be out of it by the end of April (they will be by mid-season anyway).  Mets punted on 2013 a long time ago...no need to try to rush Wright back until he's 100%. 

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Are we all going to try an NJDevs meet at Citi this year? Probably would be best if we did it early in the season before the weather gets hot, though right now it doesn't seem like it'll ever warm up lol

I generally go on Saturday afternoons when I do go these days.

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Lots of injuries have been popping up. Murphy hasn't even played a game all spring and could be out longer than Wright, who is questionable to be ready for the start of the season. It's March 21st and Santana still hasn't thrown off a mound in a game yet. It's pretty much impossible to guess when he might return until he actually gets into a game and builds up the pitch count, but this long delay doesn't look too good right now. Turner, likely the starting 3B in Wright's absence, hurt his ankle the other day but seems fine and could return to game action tomorrow. Kirk Nieuwenhuis is just coming back from a knee injury but it's up in the air whether he makes the team or not. Marcum just received a cortisone shot in his pitching shoulder; supposedly it's not a big deal but you still have to be concerned considering his injury history.

Anyway, probably time for an updated roster guess.

Starting Position Players (I'm going to operate under the assumption that Wright and Murphy open the year on the DL)

C: John Buck

1B: Ike Davis

2B: Jordany Valdespin

SS: Ruben Tejada

3B: Justin Turner

LF: Lucas Duda

CF: Collin Cowgill

RF: Marlon Byrd

Bench

C: Anthony Recker

INF: Zach Lutz

INF: Omar Quintanilla

OF: Mike Baxter

OF: Kirk Nieuwenhuis

Starting Rotation

SP: Jon Niese

SP: Shaun Marcum

SP: Matt Harvey

SP: Dillon Gee

SP: Jeremy Hefner

Bullpen (Assuming Francisco opens the year on the DL)

RP: Bobby Parnell

RP: Brandon Lyon

RP: Josh Edgin

RP: Scott Atchison

RP: Pedro Feliciano

RP: LaTroy Hawkins

RP: Greg Burke

Once Wright and Murphy return I'd expect Turner to return to his utility infielder role, probably displacing Lutz, and Valdespin to platoon with Cowgill in CF, which probably pushes Kirk (or whomever gets that final outfield bench spot) to AAA.

Byrd has pretty much won the starting RF job, unfortunately. I mean, he was pretty good in 2010-2011, but I wouldn't be surprised if he was finished at this point. We'll see. If Byrd does fall on his face, I'd expect Baxter to work himself into playing time in RF vs RHP (he probably deserves to be out there now over Byrd, but whatever).

The pitching staff hardly changes from my previous prediction. Santana will start the year on the DL and Hefner will take his place; this is pretty set in stone already. Hefner isn't going to blow anybody away but if he can throw strikes and keep the ball in the park, he should be fine. The larger question is how long Santana will be out for, and as I mentioned above, that's anybody's guess right now. The cortisone shot to Marcum is concerning but there's no indication he won't be ready to start the season (for now, anyway).

The only change to the bullpen is Francisco going to the DL and Greg Burke, a side-arming reliever on the 40-man roster whose had a good spring, taking his spot. TC has already stated the Mets will carry 2 lefty relievers; alongside Edgin, Feliciano still seems like the favorite despite diminished stuff but don't surprised if they decide on Robert Carson over him, which would save a 40-man cut.

That above roster would require 5 spots to be opened up on the 40-man; Hicks-for-Quintanilla would be one. Elvin Ramirez, Reese Havens, and Cesar Puello are all pretty vulnerable. It gets trickier after that. Gonzalez Germen or, if he doesn't make the team, Robert Carson, could be on the chopping block.

Aside: it would be nice to see the Mets make a play for outfielder Casper Wells. He's out of options and looks like the odd-man out on Seattle's roster and he'd be a fantastic fit here; he's a bit like a younger, better-defensive Cody Ross. Hopfully Sandy gives Jack Z a call.

Edited by nmigliore

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This has all the potential to be one of the worst teams of all time. One of the worst opening day lineups of all time, that's for sure

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This has all the potential to be one of the worst teams of all time. One of the worst opening day lineups of all time, that's for sure

 

Thanks to the Marlins, they probably aren't the worst team in their division (let alone the entire league). Injuries like this can make this team more of a sub-70 win team than a 70-75 win, so yeah, either way it's probably not going to be pretty. Historically bad though? 100+ losses is hard to do and there are a handful of teams projected to be worse than the Mets this year, so I don't see that happening. Regarding the lineup, check 2010's for some humor. It was pretty terrible. 

Edited by nmigliore

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Yeah plus it's hard to think the outfield or the bullpen could possibly be any worse than last year.  The pen'll probably be marginally better by accident if nothing else.  The outfield is still a huge question mark but at least the Mets aren't running a .210 Jason Bay out there every day.  Obviously starting pitching will be worse for the moment since they don't have Dickey or a first-half Santana this year, though a full season of Harvey 'can' offset it to a degree, especially if you can get a healthy Gee/Marcum too.  Offensively, you would also hope Ike doesn't have a black hole two months again and can be a bit more consistent this year and at least they get some punch from the catching position.

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70 wins seems like it's as good as it's going to get, with the injury issues, though I see that lineup and it feels more like 65-68. This year ain't about wins and losses though. 

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Wright officially named captain, Niese officially named opening day starter.  And Santana 'at least' a month away, now that he'll need three weeks before even knowing whether he can throw off a mound.

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Seems like Murphy and Wright are progressing well, with Wright taking BP the other day and Murphy getting some at bats in a minor league game. It sounds like there's at least a chance both could be ready by Opening Day, and if not, maybe only miss a handful or so games. That's good.

Pedro Feliciano has been told he's not making the team. Like I said the other day, this shouldn't be terribly surprising since his stuff was way down and the Mets can save a 40-man cut by going with Carson instead. I was pulling for Pedro but this is probably the right call.

LaTroy Hawkins has been told he's made the team, as expected. Brandon Hicks was outrighted, so Quintanilla presumably wins a roster spot as a utility infielder and should take his place on the 40-man soon.

So overall, we're looking at three players to make room for on the 40-man (excluding Quintanilla): Hawkins, Atchison (who is all but a lock to make the bullpen), and Byrd. The Mets can avoid a cut by placing Santana on the 60-day DL, which makes good sense. Elvin Ramirez and Reese Havens seem like the obvious player cuts.

Edited by nmigliore

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Admittedly, I can't get too excited about 2013, from a team standpoint.  But I am looking forward to seeing what Niese, Harvey, and hopefully Wheeler can do, as well as Travis D'Arnaud.  Will Parnell finally start to be less hittable, like he showed towards the end of last season?   

 

I've said it before, and maybe the fact that Met fans aren't expecting much for 2013 will help his cause, but if Wright looks like he did for much of the last two seasons (save for last year's out-of-nowhere first half), how long before the fans turn on him, and the "contract albatross" comments start? 

 

Anybody here read Piazza's autobio (Long Shot)?  I bought it last Wednesday, and admittedly I skipped to the part where he was traded from the Dodgers to the Marlins, then from the Marlins to the Mets, and read over his Mets career.  Some interesting stuff:

 

He hated the short time he was on the Marlins.  Basically said no one outside of Cliff Floyd gave a sh!t. 

The booing he endured during his first season as a Met really got to him (he had issues with RISP, despite hitting for a high average as a Met overall).  He even told his dad he didn't care anymore at one point.     

He comes off as a guy who wants you to believe that he isn't afraid of confrontation, but deep down really is. 

He said that Todd Hundley was cordial to him, which Piazza thought was commendable under the circumstances.  I had forgotten, but poor Hundley had apparently been told repeatedly by the Mets that they weren't interested in Piazza, that Todd was their catcher for the forseeable future, blah blah blah.  Piazza did say they almost got into a fight on a plane after Hundley had a few too many drinks, but that it died down before it got overly physical. 

 

He wants to go in as a Met, mostly because he felt like the Met organization and Met fans appreciated him much more than the Dodger franchise and fans did.  He said the Dodgers forever made it feel like they did HIM a favor by drafting him and giving him his first shot, no matter what Piazza did as a Dodger.  He also said he greatly appreciated the cheers he got in his final season as Met, even as he struggled mightily compared to previous seasons.  He pointed out that it was funny, that in his first season as a Met, he felt like he was getting undeserved boos, and in his last, undeserved cheers.  I got the impression his time in New York was much like a marriage where the partners love each other dearly, but sometimes get into brutal arguments.  He enjoyed it, but it was tough on him at the same time. 

 

And last, he enjoyed his one season in San Diego a lot...he said it was what he needed after almost eight full seasons in New York.  He didn't like his time in Oakland much at all, mostly because they kept him on the DL five weeks after he was ready to play. 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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I kinda lost some interest in reading Piazza's auto when he apparently decided to pick a fight with Vin Scully (according to one excerpt), or think Scully was out to get him during some contract negotiation lol.

 

But the comment about undeserved boos followed by undeserved cheers is pretty perceptive.  I guess if you stay in one place long enough it evens out.  Beltran kinda went through the same thing too although the 2006 NLCS Game 7 lengthened his rocky relationship with the fans.  Only his last year did they really take to him I think.

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Fangraphs has been doing a position-by-position power ranking series and they are using a combination of Steamer and ZiPS for the 2013 projections; they have Wright down for an .824 OPS, which would make him close to a 5-win player with average defense. I'd gladly sign up for that.

I have a few other baseball books I'm trying to get through so I haven't bought it yet, same goes for R.A. Dickey's book.

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I kinda lost some interest in reading Piazza's auto when he apparently decided to pick a fight with Vin Scully (according to one excerpt), or think Scully was out to get him during some contract negotiation lol.

 

But the comment about undeserved boos followed by undeserved cheers is pretty perceptive.  I guess if you stay in one place long enough it evens out.  Beltran kinda went through the same thing too although the 2006 NLCS Game 7 lengthened his rocky relationship with the fans.  Only his last year did they really take to him I think.

 

I'd have to double-check, but he came off sounding like he almost felt like Scully was kind of attacking him in an interview.  The contract situation with the Dodger made the fans turn on him.

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Den Dekker will not need surgery...will likely be in a cast for a while though, 4-6 weeks or so

 

The situation with Johan is ridiculous. I was hoping he'd come back and pitch reasonably well so we can get an outfield prospect for him...now I wouldn't be shocked if he's out until the all star break.

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Marcum was scratched from his start due to a neck injury and could miss the start of the season. I really liked the signing but on the downside, this is what you get with Marcum. At least it's not arm-related, but still - ugh. If Marcum's injury isn't too serious, the Mets could go with a 4-man rotation due to the Tuesday off day next week and then bring him back after a backdated DL stint.

Jenrry Mejia, who was going to AAA to work as a starter, is also going to be out 6 weeks with elbow inflammation.

Chris Young is opting out of his minor league deal with the Nats today, coincidentally; I could see a reunion happening but I really hope we stay away.

Pedro Feliciano is going to stick with the organization and report to AAA.

Edit: By the way, Howie Rose has a new book out too :lol: :http://www.amazon.com/Put-It-In-Book-Half-Century/dp/160078688X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1364314425&sr=8-1&keywords=howie+rose

Edited by nmigliore

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And now Jeremy Hefner leaves the game after getting hit in the elbow.  :doh1:

 

That's all we need right now.

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Not sure Hefner was a guy who was in the Mets' long-term plans anyway, but this is going to look like an expansion team on Opening Day.  If this team is .500 by the end of April, that will be an amazing accomplishment.   

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Not sure Hefner was a guy who was in the Mets' long-term plans anyway, but this is going to look like an expansion team on Opening Day.  If this team is .500 by the end of April, that will be an amazing accomplishment.   

He's not but this is the 2013 season thread and I'm not ready to suddenly concede defeat before the first game is even played, not with the huge error bars that exist in this sport. He was being counted on as the #5 in Santana's absence and potentially the #4 if Marcum is out for a significant time. At this rate it's Niese, Harvey, Gee, and who knows. I hope it's nothing for serious for Hefner and he doesn't miss a start but I smell a Chris Young reunion around the corner. Bleh. 

Edited by nmigliore

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Agree in that the Mets have to go out and try, especially with some young guys on the team who Mets fans would like to see not indoctrinated into an "accepted losing" kind of culture, but I can't get that upset about Hefner, who probably wasn't going to contribute much anyway.  If Niese, Harvey, or Wheeler go down, that to me is upsetting.  I'll give you that it sucks that the Mets are losing a body when they seem to have precious few. 



Are we all going to try an NJDevs meet at Citi this year? Probably would be best if we did it early in the season before the weather gets hot, though right now it doesn't seem like it'll ever warm up lol

I generally go on Saturday afternoons when I do go these days.

 

Not sure.  Possibly.  Anyone else? 

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Agree in that the Mets have to go out and try, especially with some young guys on the team who Mets fans would like to see not indoctrinated into an "accepted losing" kind of culture, but I can't get that upset about Hefner, who probably wasn't going to contribute much anyway.  If Niese, Harvey, or Wheeler go down, that to me is upsetting.  I'll give you that it sucks that the Mets are losing a body when they seem to have precious few.

It's not so much about being concerned over Hefner's health (although I don't mean that as harshly as it sounds), it's upsetting in the light that the Mets' already thin starter depth just got even thinner. The season-opening 4th and 5th starters, at this rate, could be Collin McHugh and Darin Gorski, the latter having never thrown a pitch above AA yet. Even with low expectations entering this season, nobody wants to see that. Avoiding being a complete disaster actually has value, believe it or not.

I'd love to be wrong but I'm calling it: Chris Young will be a Met again before the end of the day.

EDIT: Supposedly it's just an elbow contusion for Hefner. That's a bit of a relief, although I haven't seen a timetable put on it.

Edited by nmigliore

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I heard some anonoymus Met basically ripped the organization in one of the newspapers for acting like a small-market not bringing Wheeler up, since he's obviously the best option at this point and he's only being demoted because the Mets want to keep the extra year on his contract.  Can't say I disagree at all.  

 

I agree with CR in as much as if the Mets aren't going to take 2013 seriously why should anyone blame the fans for not doing so either (if they were taking 2013 seriously Wheeler would be here)?  I agree with nmig in that I don't want to surrender before the first pitch either.  Look at the Orioles/A's last year.  Even staying in the race a 'while' has some value entertainment-wise.  I mean if the Mets are hanging around the periphery of the race I'm more likely to go to 3-4 games by July than I am if they crash and burn with a 7-22 start.

Edited by NJDevs4978

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I heard some anonoymus Met basically ripped the organization for acting like a small-market not bringing Wheeler up, since he's obviously the best option at this point.  Can't say I disagree at all. 

Gaining an extra year of control isn't being cheap, it's being smart, but with pitchers this idea is less important due their attrition rates, so I'm also in the minority that wouldn't totally mind seeing Wheeler crack the Opening Day rotation. Don't ever say this on NYFS though, they'll jump on you like starved hounds. :lol:

 

I wouldn't bash the organization for keeping Wheeler down though. This act is commonplace around baseball and like I said, it's a perfectly sound strategy (even if less important to pitchers), not a matter of being cheap.

Edited by nmigliore

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Gaining an extra year of control isn't being cheap, it's being smart, but with pitchers this idea is less important due their attrition rates, so I'm also in the minority that wouldn't totally mind seeing Wheeler crack the Opening Day rotation. Don't ever say this on NYFS though, they'll jump on you like starved hounds. :lol:

 

Really?  If anything I'd think they'd want the prospects up as soon as possible lol.  There's certainly enough hemming and hawing over there about Marlon Byrd in the outfield, as if there was some big prospect he was stunting.

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