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nmigliore

Official 2013 New York Mets Thread

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BTW, Montero is continuing to pitch very well in AA.  He made a successful spot start in AAA back in mid-May, but supposedly Sandy is trying to keep him away from the PCL, so he remains in AA for the foreseeable future.  

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Hef has now gone 6 innings or more in seven out of his last eight starts (six of them have been quality starts).  This guy has actually been the Mets' second-most consistent starter, behind Harvey. 

 

If he's the guy who loses his spot when Wheeler gets called up, that's just a complete joke, and completely wrong.  Hef has been a pleasant surprise, and has earned a spot in the rotation, and a chance to show if he can continue this for a while.

 

Another strikeout for Captain K. 

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Yea it may be time to give Wright a day off

 

Hefner has turned it around in a way I never expected, but let's not forget Gee and his incredible outing against the Yankees. If Gee gives us another solid start then it becomes tough to pull either from the rotation.

 

Niese is also suffering from some tendinitis. So if he can't make his next start maybe they just DL him for 15 games

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And another 0-fer for the Ike Man.  Guess as long as he stays in the .160s his job is safe. 

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This is really starting to look like the old Parnell. Suppose he was due to blow one so can't go nuts with him. Doesn't seem like he does well in this stadium. now with the wild pitches and such. You generally know with him right away...within 4-5 pitches if Parnell is going to choke or put the other side away in a heartbeat

Edited by '7'

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Parnell didn't have it tonight, it happens. Oh well. 

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Yeah, hard to kill Parnell.  Closers blow saves sometimes.  Parnell's getting the rest of the year to close, as he should.  Mets need to see him try to do this for one full season...they'll know by the end of the year if he'll be their guy in 2014. 

 

Tough loss today.  I feel for Hef on this one, but this "offense" makes life very difficult for their pitching staff.   

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Yea the offense was beyond brutal again. Quintanilla bright spot, so was Valdespin for his bunt singles. Time to sit Buck and Ankiel for a while

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Good for Omar, this won't last, but he's managed to carry over his hitting in the PCL to the majors for a few games. 

 

Wonder if the Terry Collins watch begins.  Captain Passive has to do SOMETHING to show that he's actually got a pulse.  Not suggesting that anyone can win with this group, but we all know how this works...to think I was actually hoping for 5-4 in the 9 games following the Subway Sweep (now watch the Mets go win five in a row)...

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Check out these numbers for Hef over his last 8 starts:

 

50 IP, 41 H, 20 ER, 4 HR, 13 BB, 41 K, 3.60 ERA 

 

And it's not like Hef's thrown a shutout or two that has skewed the ERA.  He's given up one earned run, two earned runs, three earned runs and four earned runs twice each.  He's been pretty steady.

Kind of sucks that the damned team never wins for him, because he's been a nice story and a real bright spot, and he's not getting much attention over it (mostly because the salami bats never hit enough to win for the guy).  The fact is NO ONE here (including me) ever dreamed he could perform like this over an eight-game stretch. 

 

Sadly, the Mets sh!t offense has led to the team only winning one of these games. 

 

At any rate, unless he just completely collapses, he should keep his spot in the rotation for the rest of the season.  This stretch is win-win for the Mets:  the season is already shot, so if Hef falters and this stretch of effective pitching is shown to be a fluke, nothing lost.  If he succeeds, they can keep him or even trade him (likely as part of a package).  I don't expect him to be as good as he's been over these last eight starts, but at least he's put himself in the conversation as a possible #4/#5 guy in 2014 (of course, assuming everything else with Harvey/Wheeler/Niese works out according to plan, which admittedly is dangerous thinking). 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Surprised nmig hasn't posted this (it's like a morgue in here lately), but minor leaguer Cesar Puello (an OF prospect who was hitting well for AA Binghamton) looks like he's going to get busted along with several others (ARod, Braun, etc) in this whole Biogenesis mess.  Just what the Mets need...an OF prospect getting suspended for cheating. 

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Yeah that would be terrible. His name was brought up when this Biogenesis mess first came about, but that was in the offseason, before he established himself as a legit prospect. 

 

Speaking of prospects, the MLB Draft is tomorrow. The Mets own the 11th overall pick, the pick we'd have given up for Michael Bourn had we signed him. MLB Network is actually expanding their day one coverage this season to the 2nd round (they previously just covered the 1st and supplemental rounds), so we get to see 2 Mets' picks (their 2nd rounder is #48 overall). They also pick early on day two, with the #76 and #84 overall picks. I'm really excited; draft day is always like Christmas morning to me. For our 1st pick, there's about 7 top names and then it falls off a bit; hopefully one of them fall. If not, I like guys like Hunter Renfroe, D.J. Peterson, Austin Wilson, and Dom Smith. I'm keeping my fingers crossed Clint Frazier falls, he's the dream, but again he's part of the "top 7" I mentioned above. 

Edited by nmigliore

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That #11 better be one hell of a pick.  Bourn is yet another guy who strikes out a lot, but he could've been a nice first piece in the outfield. 

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Amazing that Byrd currently sits with a 123 wRC+ and the 3rd best position player fWAR on this team behind Wright and Murphy. Still not a big fan, and he'll likely have zero impact on this franchise post-2013, but credit where it's due (for now).

Edited by nmigliore

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Nice to see some runs. Gee pitching another good game is even better to see.

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Amazing that Byrd currently sits with a 123 wRC+ and the 3rd best position player fWAR on this team behind Wright and Murphy. Still not a big fan, and he'll likely have zero impact on this franchise post-2013, but credit where it's due (for now).

 

Yes, he's been pretty good.  A little (actually, a lot) scary to think of the Mets' OF without him. 

 

Great to see Gee waking up (2 QS in a row), but there's a part of me that's a little ticked that it seems to have taken the threat of him losing his job to get him going. 

 

If Niese isn't going to miss any more starts, it will be very interesting to see who's going to lose his spot to Wheeler.  Marcum goes tonight. 

 

Pretty good Daily News article about how Sandy should be very careful spending on FAs...we've talked about how this is not a great FA class coming up, but GMs never seem able to help themselves, which means the best FAs in a weak class tend to get overpaid (usually vastly so).  It's frustrating and it plays right into Captain Passive's hands in a way, in that he'll already have an excuse as to why he won't be making any big moves, but I have to admit, I think I'd much rather see Sandy not do a Kevin Appier-like signing than to do something for the sake of showing a pulse...that being said, if Sandy's going to make any magic this offseason and have the Mets at least relevant in 2014, he's going to have to do it through the trade route.  I'm OK with him not dipping his feet in a "meh" FA pool, but at the same time, he can't sit on his hands or wave them helplessly in the air and say "Well, there were no good fits."  I don't expect him to find every player he needs in one offseason, but he needs to start addressing this team's needs at the major-league level EVENTUALLY...it's looking like the plan will almost definitely be pushed back a year, with 2015 as the first season the Mets should realistically be expected to contend (probably through pitching, if all goes according to plan, and the Mets don't get any bad breaks).  That means Sandy better stop trying to sell us all on Ruben Tejada and Lucas Duda types in 2014.   

 

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/madden-mets-reconsider-spending-offseason-article-1.1360682#commentpostform

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Puello has a 4-game homer streak going for Binghamton. Ho hum.

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Puello has a 4-game homer streak going for Binghamton. Ho hum.

 

Yeah, kinda sucks that we don't know how much of that is due to ability. 

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Another homerun for Puello. This is getting ridiculous. 

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Mets took 1B Dominic Smith, very solid pick, I like it. 

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Harold Reynolds says he could be the best left-handed bat to come out of LA since Strawberry.

 

Just in case anyone's seeing 1B and thinking "will replace Ike Davis", he's not even 18 years old yet.  Probably four years away, bare minimum.

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Article on Mets Merized Online about all of the young Met pitching. 

 

http://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/06/mmo-fan-shot-future-mets-rotation-could-feature-five-top-starters.html

 

As we all know, there's a fair amount of young arms in the system.  To say the author of this article is absurdly optimistic is an understatement.  Here's how he assesses each pitcher, in terms of where he thinks they can pitch in a future rotation (my comments in red):

 

  • Matt Harvey – #2/#1 (seems to be cooling off a little, but this seems fair...his first 142.1 innings in the majors have been terrific) 
  • Zack Wheeler – #2 (we all know what the projections are, but the control is still a question mark)
  • Jon Niese – #3/#2 (I think he's more of a #3/#4.  He's a poor man's #2, if he really can be considered a #2 at all.)
  • Shaun Marcum – #3 (when healthy and based on his past, #3 sounds right, but based on the present, I have him as a #4 at best until further notice)
  • Dillon Gee – #4/#3 (I'm thinking more #4/#5.  It's going to take more than two good starts in a row, where his job was threatened, to convince me otherwise)
  • Jeremy Hefner – #5/#4 (his story is a nice one, but I have to see him do it over a full season)
  • Rafael Montero – #2/#3 (absurd command, rumor has it Sandy doesn't want the PCL to screw him up, which is why he's still in AA)
  • Noah Syndergaard – #2 (in A+ ball, still a ways off)

As we all know, the chance that all of these guys will be become major leaguer starting pitchers, let one successful ones, is a major long shot.  Someone always gets hurt (Marcum, Niese, and Gee have all been injured), and other guys' minor league success doesn't translate to the majors.  Some guys don't succeed initially as starters, but then get converted into successful closers (see Mariano Rivera, John Wetteland, Jason Isringhausen, etc).  For the short term, I'm hoping for good to great things from Harvey and Wheeler, where they show that they can be two top-of-the-rotation guys.  I'd also like to see a 200 IP season from Niese (he has yet to do that), and we'll see what happens with the others.  There's clearly bodies to take the #3/#4/#5 spots in the immediate term (Niese, Hefner, Marcum, Gee), it's just a question of who lands where in the rotation.  Niese and Marcum are #3/#4 guys, and Hef and Gee, right now, are #5 guys, though Hef's last 8 starts are actually more #3/#4. 

 

By next season, Montero and Snydergaard could be in the mix, though Snydergaard would probably be late 2014, if it all.  The good thing is, though you NEVER like giving up pitching, the Mets at least have some arms to package in for some desperately needed bats.  If Sandy gets uber-aggressive in the offseason, one or two of these arms may never make it to the majors as New York Mets. 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Harold Reynolds is a moron, I don't know why MLB Network even has him as a draft analyst (or analyst, period), so I wouldn't pay attention to anything they say. Here is some info on Smith from more respected folks:

 

Baseball America: 

 

PICK ANALYSIS: One of the best pure hitters in the draft class, the Mets continue to go with high-upside players in the first round.

SCOUTING REPORT: Smith has been a big name in the Southern California prep ranks for years, and he has justified the hype by continuing to perform at a high level as a senior. He has an innate feel for his barrel, a relaxed approach and a pretty lefthanded stroke, causing most scouts to project him as a plus hitter in the big leagues. He still wastes at-bats and chases at times, and he can get caught on his front foot, but he has the bat speed and hand-eye coordination to get away with it at this level, and he has the aptitude to make adjustments. As he spends more time in the weight room and learns to stay back and use his lower half better, he figures to hit for plus power. Smith’s other plus tool is his defense at first base, where he has soft hands, quick feet and great instincts. He can touch 90 mph off the mound, and his arm plays well at first base. It doesn’t work as well in right field, where he is more of a fringy defender with below-average speed. But he can be a Gold Glove defender at first base with enough offensive potential to make him an all-star. The game comes easily to him, and he is so smooth sometimes that he can almost look nonchalant, but scouts rave about his makeup and work ethic.

WHERE HE FITS: Smith’s hitting potential may outweigh Gavin Cecchini’s overall upside, he’s that good of a hitter. Either way, Smith should rank in the top three in the Mets’ system when he signs.

 

Keith Law: 

 

Smith is one of the best pure hitters in the high school class, showing a smooth left-handed swing with power and a plus glove at first base. When he keeps his weight back, his swing is outstanding, with great balance through contact and good hip rotation to generate power from his legs. He has quick, strong wrists, with a projectable body that should lead to very hard contact when he fills out in three or four years. 

He can drift forward at the plate too early, getting his weight out over his front side before he's started his hands, losing power and struggling to control the bat head behind him. His stride is long and early, which may be part of the reason for his trouble staying back but is an easy fix in pro ball. 

Smith is an excellent defender at first with a 70 arm, hitting 92 off the mound the one time I saw him pitch, albeit with a rough delivery. He doesn't show a lot of energy on the field, which has positive aspects (he's a confident, relaxed hitter) and negative ones (some scouts have questioned the effort level, myself included), but there are no serious concerns about his makeup. In this draft, with so few potential impact bats, he's a clear top 20 talent.

 

 

Jon Mayo:

 

The bat is what really stands out for this Southern California high school first baseman. With a terrific approach at the plate and a loose swing, he gets advanced marks for his hittability. Right now, Smith is more of a hit machine, an RBI type, than one who will wow you with his power. There is some pop there, and how high he goes on Draft day may depend on just how much power a team thinks he'll have in the future. He's a very solid defender at first, though it's the fact that some see him as the best pure high school hitter in the class that will get him drafted in the early stages of the Draft.

 

 

The Mets took RHP Andrew Church, a prep arm with the #48 overall pick. He's more of a project type but has arm strength (90-94) and size. Law said he'd be a nice high risk/high reward gamble in the late 2nd round or early 3rd, so the Mets popped him a bit early. I wasn't a fan of this pick but there's at least upside to it. 

 

Day Two gets started at 1pm ET and the Mets get into the action right away with the #76 and #84 overall picks.

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And Harvey gets screwed out of yet another win.   

 

Marlins are 10-41 against everyone else, but they sure give the Mets a challenge. 

 

Rick Ankiel hit .194 in 62 ABs with Houston.  In his first 62 ABs with the Mets?  .194...but on the bright side, he doesn't walk much and strikes out a ton.   

 

Keep up the great work Sandy.

 

Yeah, Ankiel was hitting some initially, but suffice it to say that whatever he had left is gone.  There's no reason for this guy to be on the team anymore...that being said, it's not going to get much better...Colin Cowgill and/or Kirk Nieuwenhuis.  But I just can't take watching Ankiel. 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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