Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0
nmigliore

Official 2013 New York Mets Thread

1,815 posts in this topic

Murphy's God-awful June continues:  .182 BA, .250 OB%, .247 SLG, .497 OB+SLG.  4-for-his-last-28.  He's played in all 70 games.  Geez Terry, is it too much to ask to sit the guy down for just one game when he's gone ice cold? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Murphy's God-awful June continues:  .182 BA, .250 OB%, .247 SLG, .497 OB+SLG.  4-for-his-last-28.  He's played in all 70 games.  Geez Terry, is it too much to ask to sit the guy down for just one game when he's gone ice cold? 

 

Wright has also been overplayed this year, so I'd be worried with some post all star game burnout with him as well. Though unlike Murphy he continues to perform

 

Let them play today, and sit both on Sunday afternoon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gee really shouldn't be allowed to pitch against the Phillies. Like ever

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Doofus is hurt.  The main reason this sucks is Valdespin gets another shot at second (which he doesn't deserve, even with today's home run and three RBI), and Murph goes back to first.

 

Rumor has it that Ike may be coming back sooner than later due to Doofus possibly heading to the DL.  I don't know, I can't see how Ike can possibly have been cured this quickly. 

 

BTW Snydergaard was just promoted to AA Binghamton.  Great to see the prospects moving up the ranks. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How can you not love Matt Harvey? 

 

Whatever trade value John Buck might've had is pretty well gone now.  Guy's pretty much been useless since May 3rd on.  2 HR and 7 RBI in 37 games since that date.  On May 3rd his OB+SLG was .905...we knew it would never stay there, but it's now down to .669 (which gives you an idea of awful he's been since May 3).

 

Unfortunately, he's been a pretty lousy hitter for most of his career, so I guess we shouldn't be surprised that everything's evened out so harshly.  But it's been a hard journey to watch. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

David Wright is so awesome.

 

Gotta stop cherry-picking Wright's big days and making it sound like he's some god.  He is what he is...a very good complementary hitter who's hot right now.

 

That being said, the guy is on a terrific roll...30-for-his-last 74, and 13 of those hits have gone for extra bases.  That's as good as it gets. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I just don't understand how he's a complementary hitter. He's currently sitting with a 160 wRC+. That would rank somewhere in the top 10 of ALL hitters this year. His single-season career-high is 151 (2007), back even when YOU probably admitted Wright was elite/one of the best players in the game. Just looking at a raw number like OPS won't due him justice here since it doesn't account for leagues/parks and wRC+ is basically a superior version of OPS+.  This isn't some kind of sabermetric "voodoo"; you can hem and haw about defensive metrics and how precise WAR is, but an offensive stat like wRC+ (or OPS+) is pretty down pat. I'll GLADLY take a guy who puts up big numbers in those two offensive categories over cherry-picked cold streaks, triple crown stats, player vs team sample sizes, an opinion of whether he puts fear into pitchers, and/or what a batter does in the 7th inning and on, or whatever.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Look at the balance of 2009 on.  That is not a cornerstone guy.  An overall good-to-very good (but sometimes frustrating) player?  Yes.  You yourself even admitted that last year's second half concerned you, though you tried to butter up the turd that was Wright's 2011.  Those performances are still fresh in my mind.  

 

He's red-hot right now, which is making this year look a bit closer to 2005-08 seasons.  I know the "Triple Crown" numbers aren't going to be his strong suit...the rest of the team is hitting roughly in the low .200s and is filled with guys who strike out and don't walk.  That doesn't lead to great RBI opportunities.  And his HR numbers aren't helped by playing half of his games in a real ballpark. 

 

I still don't see him as a guy who's going to carry a team.  I know there's no sabes to define this, and likely never will be.  The one you're using shows him to be an elite player...I just don't get that feeling when I'm watching Wright, that I'm witnessing greatness.  Is he the best position player on the Mets right now?  Clearly, no comparison. 

 

I'll give Wright serious kudos for this season overall...he's heading towards July and hasn't sunk yet, and he's had very little in the lineup to help him out.  Buck has been a complete nonentity since early May, and no one else has really been consistent (including Murph, who is just too damned red-hot and ice-cold).  And like I've said, this streak he's on is as torrid as it gets.   

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I like looking at 2012 and on since it's so recent. I see no reason to bother going back to 2009; that's not going to tell me anything about what Wright is today. If you want his playing-through-injury and injury-shortened 2011 included in the sample (2011-2013), fine; he still grades out well -- 15th in position player fWAR and 18th in wRC+. He even jumps up a spot in fWAR if you include 2010 too, but again, that's going back too far. Recency needs to have some importance here.

 

And yes, I admitted his 2nd half was a concern, and I also said that shouldn't diminish his elite 2012 as a whole; it made 2013 and beyond a bit hazy but he's pretty much ended all of that concern with his huge start to this season. If he came out of the gate hitting like 2012 2nd half Wright, THEN I would have been very concerned.

 

And I fully expect Wright to be much worse in the 2nd half; not because he's going to fall apart and is declining but because it's nearly impossible to expect him to keep THIS pace up. ZiPS and Steamer, as I mentioned already, are a couple of a really solid projection systems; both see Wright putting up (roughly) a 130 wRC+ the rest of the season, which is not so far off from what he did in 2009-2011 for context (124) and which is down nearly 30 points from what he's done this season. But even though that would appear like a big drop-off, that would put him on pace for a second consecutive 6+ win season (which is elite); that's how superb he's been so far.

Edited by nmigliore

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1) I like looking at 2012 and on since it's so recent. I see no reason to bother going back to 2009; that's not going to tell me anything about what Wright is today. If you want his playing-through-injury and injury-shortened 2011 included in the sample (2011-2013), fine; he still grades out well -- 15th in position player fWAR and 18th in wRC+. He even jumps up a spot in fWAR if you include 2010 too, but again, that's going back too far. Recency needs to have some importance here.

 

2) And yes, I admitted his 2nd half was a concern, and I also said that shouldn't diminish his elite 2012 as a whole; it made 2013 and beyond a bit hazy but he's pretty much ended all of that concern with his huge start to this season. If he came out of the gate hitting like 2012 2nd half Wright, THEN I would have been very concerned.

 

3) And I fully expect Wright to be much worse in the 2nd half; not because he's going to fall apart and is declining but because it's nearly impossible to expect him to keep THIS pace up. ZiPS and Steamer, as I mentioned already, are a couple of a really solid projection systems; both see Wright putting up (roughly) a 130 wRC+ the rest of the season, which is not so far off from what he did in 2009-2011 for context (124) and which is down nearly 30 points from what he's done this season. But even though that would appear like a big drop-off, that would put him on pace for a second consecutive 6+ win season (which is elite); that's how superb he's been so far.

 

1) This point is fair.  I'll give you that 2009 may not be terribly relevant anymore...no more than 2005-08 I guess. 

 

2) The extremes of that 2012 season were what raised a red flag for me.  Wright almost looked like a new hitter in the first half of 2012...the BB-to-K ratio was terrific.  The second half reminded me of 2011 Wright...lots of Ks and the rest of the numbers being down across the board.  I readily admit that I am thrilled that Wright, despite the Ks still being a bit high (compared to his younger days), his other numbers have been very good to date.  A .923 OB+SLG...I know that doesn't factor in every last thing and doesn't tell the whole story, but at least it's comparable to the 2005-2008 seasons.

 

3) I hope everyone's wrong on this one...he's on pace for a very good season right now.  It will probably appear to most that he's wilting from having been the only remotely consistent bat in the lineup from Day One (and from never getting time off), and not getting much help from anyone else.       

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pretty wild stat which I'm sure I will jinx: 

 

Matthew Falkenbury ‏@dailystache

Since June 14th, 2012, Bobby Parnell has allowed 1 HR.

 

Where Parnell deserves major kudos since late last year:

 

Yes, he's has some rougher outings lately.  But he has a way of bouncing back from them:

 

May 22:  1 IP, 3 ER

Four outings after that:  4 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K 

 

June 9 (he had pitched the day before):  1 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 K (I think he got some lousy defense in this one, I forget)

Five outings after that:  5.1 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K

 

This is a good sign.  He's rarely had a bad outing since last season (24 hits allowed in his last 41 IP, along with just 8 BB), and on the rare occasion that he has, he's shaken it off nicely.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Take it for what it's worth...from Carton this morning:  Ike Davis was named PCL Player of the Week (he now has a 1.261 OB+SLG down there...he hit his 5th HR in his last 4 GP last night...he's been on base roughly half of his plate appearances).  Apparently, when he wasn't called up to replace Duda after Duda was injured, he threw such a major fit that Sandy had to call him and calm him down.

 

Ike, it's good to have fire and all, and thank God you're hitting SOMEWHERE, but geez, do you realize that you were one of THE worst everyday hitters in ALL of MLB?!  That you were given more opportunities to get yourself going than you deserved thanks to your GM having his head up his ass?  Suck it up...keep tearing the cover off the ball and you'll get called back up sooner than later.  But the Mets showed an absurd amount of patience with you...you should show some in return. 

 

Makes one wonder if it really is that easy to hit in the PCL, or if the Mets' coaching staff is really that useless.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rubin says Ike should be coming back up for Thursday's game vs Colorado, for what it's worth.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Makes sense, especially with Duda out...I really don't want to see Murph at first and Valdespin at second.  And Satin is clearly never going to be the future at first.  Just hope Ike doesn't start out 0-for-4 with 3 Ks or something like that. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh wow. Mets get an absolute gift as this game goes into extras

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Though the overall record looks bad (and it is) at 30-43, the Mets have actually been playing about .500 ball for a month...13-14 since May 26.  It's not a consistent .500, but it is what it is. 

 

Wheeler's doing about what I expected him to.  Let's face it...he walks guys.  He always has (4.05 per 9 IP in the minors).  Pitching at the highest level is only going to exacerbate it.  The question is will he ALWAYS be a guy who's laboring to get into the sixth inning?  Obviously the answer to that question is likely years away, and no one can answer it today, but with all of the foul balls and prolonged at-bats last night, I felt like I was watching Al Leiter. 

 

And I'm sorry, I think Collins abused Wheeler last night the same way he's abused Harvey.  It's Wheeler's second major-league start and the guy is clearly laboring, and has pitched five taxing innings.  Why the hell is Collins sending Zack out for the sixth inning?  What was the point? 

 

BTW Noah Snydergaard had a solid AA debut:  6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 7 K.  Maybe he gets a taste of AAA by the end of the season if he tears it up in AA, who knows? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BTW, GREAT baseball movie on satellite/cable right now called "Knuckleball!"  It's a documentary that mostly focuses on the careers of Tim Wakefield and RA Dickey.  There's some great old films of both players as little leaguers and teenagers (Wakefield looks about the same, sans goatee, while Dickey almost isn't recognizable).  I won't give anything away, but suffice it to say that both pitchers went through a lot of hell and their share of rough patches, and the knuckleball represented both players' only chance to have any success as major leaguers.  Wakefield's career numbers, despite winning 200 games, seem kind of unremarkable at a glance, until you factor in that the guy, who was drafted as a first baseman and was told he'd never get above AA as a position player with his skillset, managed to pitch 3226.1 regular-season innings in the majors over 19 seasons, and pitched until he was 44 years old.  Dickey's story is the guy who simply didn't have the kind of stuff needed to get major-league hitters out with much success, and was on his way just another afterthought, before embracing the knuckler.   

 

Re:  Dickey, what's kind of sad in a way is that Dickey and the Mets seem like they were made for each other.  The deal Sandy made was a no-brainer, you make that trade 100 times, but Dickey's three seasons as a Met have been so much better than everywhere else...for some reason, being a Met brought out his very best. Hard to believe that Dickey's given up 6 ER or more in four out of his last 6 starts as a Blue Jay.

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Montero had another tough start in AAA:  just 3 IP and 4 ER, with 3 BB (very uncharacteristic for him).  Ike went 0-for-4. 

 

BTW Collin Cowgill has been traded for minor-leaguer Kyle Johnson.  Johnson is a 23-year-old A-baller and college grad...his minor-league numbers look good to date (speed/on-base guy, good average, not much power), but he's also probably 2-3 years older than most of his competition.  The return for Cowgill doesn't matter anyway...I like the Sandy is doing something by whittling away the deadwood.  Hoping Valdespin is next. 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like we had the 1999 Mets infield out there today. Good to see Marcum get win #1. He hasn't been good, but he wasn't deserving of 0-9 either.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like we had the 1999 Mets infield out there today. Good to see Marcum get win #1. He hasn't been good, but he wasn't deserving of 0-9 either.

 

He's had good outings...but probably didn't deserve more than 3-4 wins...of course, the Met offense for much of the season has been a W-L record killer for all of their starting pitchers. 

 

It's the White Sox, whose offense is about as bad as the Mets', so I can't too much out of Marcum pitching well against them, but all I'm asking for from Marcum is to turn in some good starts before the trading deadline.  There's simply no reason for him to be here after that date, especially if Niese is OK, and Montero progresses in AAA (which right now look like big IFs, admittedly). 

 

John Buck is now 1-for-his-last-21, with 11 K.  That crazy start seems like 100 years ago.  He's a .181 hitter since April 16.  I'm sure the Mets are praying he gets hot again so someone might show interest, so he's going to keep playing, but it doesn't look like it's going to happen.  Recker probably isn't going to be much of an improvement either, so it's hard to make much of a case for him getting the majority of the playing time, even with Buck doing next to nothing for over two months.  D'Arnaud can't get up here soon enough. 

 

Hope Murph picks it up soon.  .270/.310/.705 isn't really enough.  He'll go on one of his hit-everything-in-sight streaks in time, but admittedly when he's in a valley like this it's easy to start wondering what it is exactly that he does really well. 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He's had good outings...but probably didn't deserve more than 3-4 wins...of course, the Met offense for much of the season has been a W-L record killer for all of their starting pitchers. 

 

It's the White Sox, whose offense is about as bad as the Mets', so I can't too much out of Marcum pitching well against them, but all I'm asking for from Marcum is to turn in some good starts before the trading deadline.  There's simply no reason for him to be here after that date, especially if Niese is OK, and Montero progresses in AAA (which right now look like big IFs, admittedly). 

 

John Buck is now 1-for-his-last-21, with 11 K.  That crazy start seems like 100 years ago.  He's a .181 hitter since April 16.  I'm sure the Mets are praying he gets hot again so someone might show interest, so he's going to keep playing, but it doesn't look like it's going to happen.  Recker probably isn't going to be much of an improvement either, so it's hard to make much of a case for him getting the majority of the playing time, even with Buck doing next to nothing for over two months.  D'Arnaud can't get up here soon enough. 

 

Hope Murph picks it up soon.  .270/.310/.705 isn't really enough.  He's go on one of his hit-everything-in-sight streaks in time, but admittedly when he's in a valley like this it's easy to start wondering what it is exactly that he does really well. 

 

I have little to no faith in Niese repeating 2012 ever, who knows if he'll ever build up the arm strength again even if his injury is on the less severe side and doesn't require surgery

 

Buck is a disaster, shame D'Arnaud's progress back has been so slow. Mets have a guy in Vegas named Francisco Pena...honestly I can't imagine he's any worse than Recker or Buck at this point.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0