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nmigliore

Official 2013 New York Mets Thread

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That's fair nmig.  It's definitely a risk and far from ideal to bring him back.  I'd still consider it if his price was low again (less than $1 mil)...at least he's not costly.

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Hefner's dominant run continues; obviously he isn't this good -- he has plenty of BABIP regression coming, and his peripherals point to a pitcher more deserving of an ERA around 4 -- but check out how he compares to Gee and Niese: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=c,13,36,37,38,40,-1,120,121,-1,118,119,-1,59&season=2013&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=7396,1989,4424

 

Now of course Hefner has the smallest sample of the trio, and I still don't know if he's going to sustain this kind of dominance over RHB (he's been Justin Masterson-esque against them), but he's right up there in terms of defensive-independent results (FIP-) and close enough in xFIP-.

 

Now with Niese having shoulder problems and Hefner being just as valuable as Gee since 2012 as a starter (despite 40+ less innings), it's fair to wonder if Hefner may be the top arm of the group. Who would have thought that was a possibility entering 2013?

Edited by nmigliore

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One thing I wanted to add on Hefner is the velocity increase. Through his first four appearances this season, he averaged 90.27 mph on his 4-seam fastball. Since then he's averaged 91.92 mph on that same pitch; that's more than a +1.5 increase in velocity, which is pretty substantial.

 

And these are his numbers since finding that velocity (4/25 and beyond): 80 IP, 19 K%, 5.7 BB%, 0.66 HR/9, 2.93 ERA, 3.30 FIP.

 

Still a gap between his FIP and ERA, but not that much. Those are excellent numbers.

Edited by nmigliore

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Re:  Hef, let's face it, pretty much everyone to a man wondered if he'd be even able to stay in the rotation for the duration of the season...at best, we thought he'd barely be able to get by.  No one saw him being able to pitch this well.  The guy has lowered his ERA from 5.00 to 3.39 in his last 9 starts (2.09 ERA). 

 

Yeah, I would expect some regression, simply because I don't know how many times a guy like Hef can realistically be expected to have stretches that are THIS good. 

 

His numbers over that stretch:  56 IP, 51 H, 20 R, 13 ER, 10 BB, 49 K, 6 HR. 

 

One thing worth pointing out is that he's also stopped walking guys...his walks were up early in the season.  18 BB in his first 45 IP (3.6 per 9 IP).  Only 1.6 BB per 9 IP since. 

 

The good thing is, if all goes according to plan, Hef should be a #3 or a #4 in the future Mets rotation (kudos to him for basically forcing himself into the Mets' plans...I don't know how he can't be a part of them at this point, especially with not knowing what will happen with Niese. 

 

That being said, I am definitely worried about Zack Wheeler.  I know he's a rookie and I know it's a small sample, and I'm not implying in the slightest that I'm giving up on him having a bright future.  But the lack of control is scary...and the laboring that comes with it.  Some guys are able to overcome their wildness in time (it took Nolan Ryan until he was 37...in his first 3520.2 IP, the guy walked 2022 hitters (5.17 per 9 IP...for the rest of his career (1865.1 IP) he cut that down to 3.72).  Of course, for Sandy Koufax it clicked much earlier, at the age of 25 (405 BB in his first 691.2 IP, just 412 for the rest of his career (1632.2 IP)).  Not daring to compare Wheeler to either of these two guys...just a couple of guys who were heralded for their terrific stuff, but had some trouble harnessing it earlier on.  I guess I'm wondering if Zack will ever be able to do that...some guys never do, and it looks like Zack is going to need a lot of help in that regard.    

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Cubs got back a live arm in low-A with good numbers for Scott Hairston, who is having a terrible year and is owed $2.5M next season plus whatever is left on this year's contract. Remember what Sandy got back for Hairston last season when he was putting up nice numbers with a dirt cheap salary? Oh that's right, nothing. 

 

Can't wait to do the same with Marlon Byrd this year!

Edited by nmigliore

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There wasn't much of an excuse for last season w/Hairston, but I agree that there isn't really any excuse for Captain Passive hanging onto Byrd this year.  If the Mets decide they want him back again next season, I don't think they'll have any problem bringing him back (not that being concerned about him coming back next year should be a major worry on Sandy's part).  There HAS to be a contending team that could use a decent outfield bat with power this season who won't cost that much from a money standpoint, and Marlon Byrd fits the bill nicely.  Passive has really shown next to nothing since coming here...like we've both said, it was going to be pretty hard to screw up the Beltran trade.  The Mets were going to get something of significance back for him.   

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Montero's last outing:  6 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K

 

Since his AAA recall:  24.1 IP, 35 H, 14 ER, 9 BB, 22 K, 1.77 WHIP 

 

There's probably sabes to make these numbers look a little better than they really are, but 35 H in 24.1 IP is a lot. 

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Yeah he's running a 3.26 FIP thanks to the strong K%, BB%, and homerun rates. That's more important to me than the raw results. I know the hit rate isn't pretty, but to be fair to him, he's playing in an environment where it's natural to expect an inflated hit (or homerun) rate. Montero is also an extreme strike-thrower which probably makes it even tougher for him in that league. 

 

Noah Syndergaard threw up another gem for Binghamton the other night too: 7 IP, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K. Still a very small sample size, but he's been fantastic since being bumped up to AA: 18 IP, 17 hits, 3 ER, 4 BB, 23 K.

 

These two pitchers are also going to the Future's Game, which is really awesome for them since they get a taste of Citi Field. Brandon Nimmo will also join them, granted he's hit just .224/.327/.306 in low-A since returning from a hand and back injury that forced him to miss a month.

Edited by nmigliore

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Interesting, Syndergaard gives up his fair share of hits (78 of them in 81.2 IP this season), but they don't seem to hurt him much (2.76 ERA in 15 starts).  His BB-to-K ratio on the season is terrific (20-to-87), and it's always nice when one has the ability to dial it up for a K when needed.  I'm thinking he's going to AAA ball by September for a few starts if he keeps pitching well in AA.  Pretty impressive for a guy who won't be 21 until next month.  Probably has an outside shot at a major-league call up next season if Vegas doesn't kill him first. 

 

I know about the PCL; this is why I HATE the Mets having their AAA affilate there, so I know Montero's numbers, just like everyone one else pitching in the PCL, are affected.  It's just that his numbers are so markedly different for the 51s.  I'm sure he can't wait to get the hell out of there.     

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BTW, if anyone here's looking for a disturbing read, check out this:

 

http://www.amazon.com/books/dp/0762447990

 

It's the book about the rise and fall of Lenny Dykstra's financial empire (Nailed!).  Suffice it to say Lenny was a pretty scary guy in a lot of ways...and not a very nice one at that.  The book doesn't really go into Lenny's playing days, in length or detail, though there's some early chapters dedicated to that part of his life (as well as his childhood)...the meat of the book is Lenny's post-retirement empire build-up/tear-down and the drama and flat-out abuse and scamming that went with it. 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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I have Doc's memoir coming in this week...this guy was MY hero when I was a 13-year-old in 1984, Dwight's rookie year.  What's sad in, in 1986, I bought an early Dwight Gooden book that chronicled his 1984 and 1985 seasons (the earliest edition of this book covered 1984 only and was called "Rookie"...the 1985 season was added in the later edition that I picked up).  In it, there's a section where he said that drugs were something he'd always stayed away from, that sure, people approached him from time to time asking him if he wanted to try this or that, but he always said no, didn't want anything affecting the way he played the game.

 

So sad...everyone saw the insane numbers those first two seasons, and a while back I posted that off-the-charts 50-start stretch from '84-'86 where Doc just seemed like he was truly untouchable (37-5 record), in every sense.  Of course, he was never going to keep up that pace, but his career, though clearly good overall, had a chance to be SO much better than it wound up being...still stings me and Mets fans of my era...still that feeling of what could've been.

 

Here's that 50-start stretch again:

 

1984: 8-1 record, 76 IP, 42 H, 9 ER, 13 BB, 105 K, 7 HR, 1.07 ERA

1985: 24-4 record, 276.2 IP, 198 H, 47 ER, 69 BB, 268 K, 13 HR, 1.53 ERA

1986: 5-0 record, 52 IP, 30 H, 6 ER, 8 BB, 39 K, 2 HR, 1.04 ERA

 

Totals: 37-5 record, 404.2 IP, 270 H, 62 ER, 90 BB, 412 K, 22 HR, 1.38 ERA

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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If Terry brings Harvey out for the 7th at 107 pitches....god help me. Nice job by Matt battling after a rocky 1st inning though.

 

Also I would hold him out of his next scheduled start before the ASB.

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Harvey on deck, he's probably starting the 7th. Jeez. 

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BTW, if anyone here's looking for a disturbing read, check out this:

 

http://www.amazon.com/books/dp/0762447990

 

It's the book about the rise and fall of Lenny Dykstra's financial empire (Nailed!).  Suffice it to say Lenny was a pretty scary guy in a lot of ways...and not a very nice one at that.  The book doesn't really go into Lenny's playing days, in length or detail, though there's some early chapters dedicated to that part of his life (as well as his childhood)...the meat of the book is Lenny's post-retirement empire build-up/tear-down and the drama and flat-out abuse and scamming that went with it. 

 

I still remember Mike Francesa (I think Russo was off) had Dykstra on his program a few years ago before his empire collapsed. Francesa was touting him almost as if he was Warren Buffet. Something just seemed "off" though during the interview...meaning Dykstra seemed impaired in some way.

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Harvey clearly labored tonight too, it's not like he's been dominant. Terry is just a total moron, I'm so tired of this lameduck loser.

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Nice job moron Terry. 107 pitches and they lead off with a triple.

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2 pitches...1 run. fvcking idiot Terry strikes again

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It's one thing if the Mets were actually in a pennant race. This is just a joke. 

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Mets got some good news with Niese today, as he will not require surgery and has been cleared to resume throwing

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What a play by Crawford robbing Byrd of a hit that would have put the Mets up a run in the 11th. Ergh.

Edited by nmigliore

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I still remember Mike Francesa (I think Russo was off) had Dykstra on his program a few years ago before his empire collapsed. Francesa was touting him almost as if he was Warren Buffet. Something just seemed "off" though during the interview...meaning Dykstra seemed impaired in some way.

 

That is brought up in the book...much is made of how surprised people always were when they remembered Dykstra the player, then met this version of Lenny...almost everyone seemed to wonder about his health and condition...he had to wear false teeth (as he had lost most of his own), was paunchy, and just flat-out looked 10-15 years older than he really was.

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Harvey clearly labored tonight too, it's not like he's been dominant. Terry is just a total moron, I'm so tired of this lameduck loser.

 

I can't wait 'till he's gone, a distant memory of a time when the Mets were in another valley.

 

I wonder if it even registers with Passive what this clown could potentially be doing with Harvey's career.  The bullpen has been better lately...they deserve the chance to close some of these games out...but no, time and time again the retread no one wanted has to try to squeeze another inning out of a winded Harvey.  That's now the third time in the last five games that Harvey has been overextended, and it's led to a total of 6 runs.  And as we all know, what the hell does Collins care?  He's out at the end of the year and he knows it. 

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Mets got some good news with Niese today, as he will not require surgery and has been cleared to resume throwing

 

That's good, but I think the Mets have to realize that this guy is never going to be a 200-inning guy for them.  They should probably start thinking of him as a potential #5.  Could be win-win...Niese is better than a lot of other team's #5s, and pitching in that slot in the rotation will help keep his innings/workload down.

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That was some kind of win last night with the bullpen escaping jam after jam and Crawford, who saved the game earlier, booting the go-ahead run in. Even the save by Parnell was scary,

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