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nmigliore

Official 2013 New York Mets Thread

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Re:  Rivera's numbers, as great as they are, are actually slightly hurt by his overall bad numbers as a starting pitcher in his rookie year:

 

10 GS, 50 IP, 64 H, 33 ER, 20 BB, 38 K, 5.94 ERA    His first eight major-league appearances came as a starter.  He had one excellent start (8 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 11 K), but only two of his 10 starts fell into the "quality start" category.

 

His ERA as a reliever (not a hugely important stat for relievers, not going to pretend that it is) is 2.07.  1204 IP as a reliever with just 914 hits and 264 BB allowed (and only 59 HR)...that's a 0.98 WHIP. 

 

What's amazing about it all is that he was NOT being groomed into being a reliever...he spent the majority of his minor-league career starting (from when he was 22 to 25) .  I don't think the Yankees were ever thinking reliever, let alone closer, though maybe the Yankees should have let him be that all along...his first year of professional ball in the rookie league saw him put up insane numbers as a 20-year-old reliever:

 

22 GP (1 start), 52 IP, 17 H, 1 ER, 7 BB, 58 K, 0.17 ERA, 0.46 WHIP.  In a word...damn. 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Just realized Wright leads the NL in position player WAR (Fangraphs). He could legitimately be in the race for MVP depending on what he does the next few months (he was robbed of the MVP in 2007).

 

And of course Harvey, 2nd in pitcher WAR, has a legit shot at the Cy Young as of right now.

 

Would be fascinating to see, by the end of the season, each of them having as good of a case for those awards as they do now. 

Edited by nmigliore

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Hard to believe a guy on pace for 89 RS, 23 HR and 78 RBI could lead in WAR.  Not saying those numbers are the best way to judge players, just saying I'm sure a lot of people would be surprised that Wright's leading in NL position player WAR. 

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Hard to believe a guy on pace for 89 RS, 23 HR and 78 RBI could lead in WAR.  Not saying those numbers are the best way to judge players, just saying I'm sure a lot of people would be surprised that Wright's leading in NL position player WAR. 

 

Well that's because 2 of those 3 numbers (I'm sure you can guess which) are irrelevant to batter value in WAR. Wright has excelled in hitting for average, getting on base a ton, and being a good defensive player and baserunner.

 

I'm actually surprised how well defensive metrics have liked Wright the last two seasons:

 

2012-2013: +21 DRS, +18.5 UZR (this is basically +2 wins)

 

He was clearly trending downward before that, to a point where you could argue he was a major liability at the position:

 

2009-2011: -34 DRS, -31.2 UZR (this is basically -3 wins)

 

Before these two time frames, Wright was similarly up-and-down defensively. Very strange, but then again, defensive metrics can be fickle like that. 

 

But yes, to your original point, I think traditional stat folk, who aren't all that familiar with the components of WAR, would be surprised to see that Wright actually has a good case for MVP (right now) despite not having big numbers in the triple crown categories.

Edited by nmigliore

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Dave Cameron of Fangraphs annually runs a really cool Trade Value series. He ranked David Wright #21 in baseball in trade value (obviously he's going nowhere, it's just to put his value in some perspective, contract and age and all that stuff obviously included):

 

Wright has rebounded from a mid-20s slump to emerge as one of the best players in the game, and the Mets were able to give him an extension that rewards him for his play without turning the deal into an albatross.  While the $11 million he’s getting this year is likely to be the most valuable part of the contract, paying $20 million per year for Wright’s age 31-35 seasons is easily justifiable, and by the time he gets to 36, the salaries will be decreasing.  You don’t see a lot of middle-loaded contracts like this, but it does serve to preserve some of Wright’s trade value as the contract goes along, rather than absorbing all of the value up front and leaving him overpaid at the end.  

 

Really, the only thing keeping Wright this low is his age.  We’re getting to the part of the list where the players ahead of him are also excellent and signed to reasonable or bargain contracts, but most of them are just younger.  It’s not a knock against Wright himself, and there’s really nothing to complain about, as he hits, he fields, he runs, and he stays healthy.  His mediocre 2011 season is mostly in the rear view mirror at this point, and he’s really a player with very few flaws.  

 

He’s just headed for the part of his career where that is unlikely to remain true.  How long he can hold off Father Time will determine whether or not he ends up in Cooperstown.  

 

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2013-trade-value-25-21/

Edited by nmigliore

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Well I suppose hefner was due for this

 

What a mammoth home run by Byrd

 

Can we get Gonzales German into the game already?

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Harvey looks ridiculous today even by Harvey standards, wow. What a special talent.

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Great time to take Harvey out now but there's a 0 percent chance of that happening.

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Harvey at 112 again. I personally would cap him at 105 every game and strictly adhere to it. He does seem to run out of gass quickly at 100. I dont care if it's middle inning too.

Nice to see a game where the Mets only use 2 pitchers!

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A bloop hit by Gattis and a passed ball by Buck just cost the Mets this game. What a fvcking joke. 

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And Heyward robs Turner of a game-tying and maybe game-winning double with a ridiculous diving catch in CF. Of course. 

 

I mean if you're a believer in the "that only happens to the Mets" stuff, there is some gold. 

 

UGH that one really ticked me off.

Edited by nmigliore

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This one came with a light body and bitter finish. And no, I did not mean for this post to go in the Beer thread.

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Terrific outing by Gee but of course because it's the Braves we gag it up in unbelievable fashion. Terry also got Gee out at the right time which is nice to see

 

it really doesn't matter if the Mets field the 27 Yankees and the Braves switch uni's with the 62 Mets...this game occurs 4-5 times a year against the Braves and has been occurring since 1997 or so. You knew as soon as Turner hit the ball that the baseball gods will hold it in the air long enough to guide Heyward (hey it's his 6th game in center, so would he commit a miscue? Of course not) to make a circus catch. Of course he made that catch

 

David Wright has to get that run in bottom of the 9th. Not K on 3 pitches.

 

Byrd was playing too deep. That wasn't a little flair that got past in infield. It was a legit fly ball. Byrd can't be playing in the Mo's zone on that one.

 

And Buck has to get that wild pitch by Parnell. It hit his glove, he has to catch it

 

Just infuriated by this loss. And the pitching matchups are not in our favor the rest of the way so we'll likely get swept.

 

And I'm sick of this overshift, no doubles crap. If we overshift McCann he's going to hit it up the middle, if we no doubles Gattis he's going to drop a fly ball to medium right. It never seems to work when we do it in big spots

Edited by '7'

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Re:  Wright, that's what's frustrating about him, and that's why guys like Francesca go on rants about how he doesn't seem to get big hits in big spots...people don't pull this perception out of thin air.  Yes, Wright is clearly the best position player on the Mets right now (not that he has much in the way of real competition).  But this was a spot where he didn't even have to come up with a hit...just get the damned runner home from third!  Nope...strike one, strike two, and strike three, and even more maddening is that it didn't come as that big of a surprise, because Wright does that.  You know if that was Chipper Jones against the Mets, he gets that run home one way or another.

 

Exhibit A (among others) as to why David, despite sabes or traditional numbers, is not (and will never be) a "THE MAN" type.  Like I've said repeatedly...no one's afraid of him in a big spot.  Good-to-very-good player, yes.  Nothing more. 

 

'7', in fairness, I wouldn't be so quick to bail on this series...Mets have really been a solid team record-wise for a while now (18-12 in their last 30, 26-23 in their last 49).  The fact that they fell so many games under .500 to start the season seems to ensure that the overall record will remain ugly, but they've been surprisingly decent for almost a third of a full season.   

 

Hard to believe Gee's ERA is down to 4.07...on May 25 it was 6.35.  This was a guy who looked like he should lose his spot in the rotation not so long ago. 

 

Speaking of ERAs...poor Hef.  His really took a beating with that last start.  From 3.33 to 3.93.  Almost doesn't seem fair.

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Last starts by Syndergaard and Montero both in the "meh" category:  5 IP, 7 H, 3 ER for each of them. 

 

Guessing Montero can't wait to get out of the PCL...he was moving up nicely until reaching AAA.  His numbers are up across the board w/Vegas (more hits and walks allowed).  I know some of that is due to the pitching hell that is the PCL.

 

Syndergaard's giving up some hits (25 H in 25 IP w/Binghamton), and he's been doing that in both A+ and AA (86 H in 88.2 IP overall, .257 BAA), but he keeps the walks down (23) and hasn't been giving up home runs (7).  Like Montero, I can see him having a tough time in the PCL...if he's giving up hits, I've got to believe he's only give up a lot more of them in Vegas.  God it sucks having to go through the PCL to get to New York.

 

Also gotta wonder when Zack Wheeler's luck is going to run out.  Hard to be successful with a 1.50 WHIP and throwing 100 pitches by the 5th inning seemingly every game.  He's young and was expected to have growing pains for sure (he's showing the same issues he's had throughout the minors), but it's an absolute miracle that he has a 3.58 ERA. 

 

Valdespin is tearing it up through five games for Vegas:  22 AB, 10 H, 2 HR, 12 RBI, .455 BA, 1.251 OB+SLG.  Can't say I ever want to see him up playing with the big boys ever again though.  He seems to be as poisonous as it gets.    

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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We won't be seeing Montero this year anyway, I'm sure. The Mets are going to have a 40-man roster jam with a bunch of Rule 5 eligible-prospects this winter so near-MLB ready guys who aren't already on the 40-man and aren't Rule 5 eligible this winter, like Montero, likely won't get their first taste of MLB until 2014.

 

One intriguing prospect who will need to be added is starting pitcher Jacob deGrom, who has risen through the system pretty quickly and has handled AAA pretty well so far. We'll probably be seeing him within the next few months.

Edited by nmigliore

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I have to admit, I didn't know anything about deGrom, with all of the higher-profile names we keep discussing.  deGrom is already 25 years old (was drafted out of college), and his minor-league numbers aren't eye-popping (gives up a good number of hits and isn't a high-K guy)...seems like he's a B-level prospect.  According to this source, for whatever it's worth, looks like he might be getting a shot this Friday with the Mets:

 

http://metsminors.net/roster-news-burke-demoted-degrom-likely-candidate-to-be-called-up/

 

This is a guy you might as well find out about now:  is he a AAAA, spot-starter type, or a guy who could actually become a decent major-league starter?  If it's the latter, maybe he can sweeten a package a little bit for an outfielder this offseason. 

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No, he's a legit prospect. Not in the Montero or Syndergaard class, but somewhere in the next tier. His age is deceiving -- first and foremost he was a SS in college with next to no pitching experience, so he was a complete project pick. He then had TJS after being drafted and so that's why he didn't get into full season ball until last season. But the stuff is legit; a fastball that can touch the mid-90's with good sink and a slider that flashes plus ability. He's moved pretty quickly as a starter considering the lack of experience; in fact, the promotion to AAA was a bit aggressive considering he was more okay than great in AA. He may just be a reliever in the end with a 2-pitch arsenal that would play up better in relief, but he's very much a real prospect.

Edited by nmigliore

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Regarding Friday: Mejia seems like the most logical choice. He's already on the 40-man and is lined up to start that day. Schwinden was one alternative mentioned but he's been dreadful for Las Vegas and isn't on the 40-man while deGrom is actually listed as tonight's starter for Las Vegas. We'll have a clearer picture tonight.

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Nothing wrong with another reliever either, especially a younger guy.  Sandy's discount-rack shopping for relievers hasn't exactly delivered much in the way of positive results overall.  

 

Schwinden, God no!  That guy sucks.

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Marc Carig says Mejia is starting Friday. He was always the most logical choice here, so, cool.

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He seems like a waste of time to me...guy is made of teflon.  Seems like he's always an injury waiting to happen...but Al Leiter had a rough time staying healthy when he was younger too, and wound up winning 162 games (the vast majority of which came in his 30s). 

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I don't think he's a waste of time; are we forgetting the team is out of the playoff race and in a rebuild? What do they have to lose toying around with a former top pitching prospect that still has a good arm and is quite young? It's easy to forget he's just 23. I have almost zero expectations with him as a starter, but it doesn't hurt to get a look at him in some role, even if it's the bullpen after the spot start.

 

One thing to keep in mind is that if he spends 20 non-rehab days in the minors this year, he burns his final option and thus would need to make the team next spring in order to avoid being put on waivers. Keeping him up, or at least out of the minors for 20 days, would preserve that final option another year and allow the team to freely send him down next season, if need be.

Edited by nmigliore

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Ideally you can at least bump up Mejia's trade value.  At some point we're going to have to trade something to improve the offense.

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