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nmigliore

Official 2013 New York Mets Thread

1,815 posts in this topic

Collins again proving he's a friggin' amateur.  No reason to leave Gee in...for some reason Collins just loves to mess up 7-inning, 0-run games from his starters. 

 

I know Ike has been a bit of an on-base beast since coming back up, and he had a nice day yesterday, but I don't trust him in anything resembling big spots.  His BA is up to a whopping .190.  fvck him.

 

Re:  Wright...pretty much agree with nmig's take...unfortunately I think everyone on the Mets got caught up in the team having a shot (albeit a long one) at finishing at or near .500.  Wright is clearly a long-term piece of the puzzle here...this is not a guy you fvck around with.  

 

Makes Passive's keeping the band together look like a poor decision.

 

Agree '7', not sure WTF Flores has to do to get a call-up.  Looks like they don't want to screw with Murph at 2B.  But please, for the love of God, no Duda, anywhere...he's a lost cause.

 

And John Buck sucks. 

 

TC already hinted at Murphy playing 3B. I really hope this doesn't all culminate with Murphy at 3B, Eric Young at 2B, and Duda in LF, but I think it will, unfortunately. As if Wright getting hurt isn't bad enough. Ugh.

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As much as it would be easy to point at Marlon Byrd and say "What the fvck?", let's face it, Wheeler was due to have some bad breaks go against him...as has been pointed out many times, a lot of what he's accomplished to date, even with the good flashes he's shown, had been due to extraordinarily good luck.  FIP is 5.31 (5.00 is considered awful), xFIP is 4.98 (5.00 is considered awful here too).  A guy like Zack is going to take a beating in FIP and xFIP, because as stated before in this thread, guys who walk a lot of hitters and give up a lot of dingers (the two biggest no-nos in these formulas) are going to have ugly FIPs and xFIPs.   

 

So how is it that Zack has a respectable W-L record (4-2) and ERA (3.73)?  This is where you can go by your eyes, and don't really need sabes (though the sabes here do a really nice job of helping to explain WHY Zack has been fortunate).  For one, though I can't point to specfics without going through box scores, I know he's had relievers come in and help to clean up messes he's left behind, so there's some runners that didn't score that would've hurt his ERA.  For another, he's benefitted from a phenomenal RISP batting-average-against (well under .200)...the problem here is, though many pictures "bear down" and having considerably a lower RISP BAA than they without runners on, that's something that tends to come with veteran savvy and experience...being that much more deliberate/careful with pitching locations, knowing specific hitters' weaknesses and how to exploit them, etc.  The high base-on-balls rate with Zack shows that he hasn't really reached that point yet...his very strong RISP BAA is probably due to nothing more than, again, very good luck.

 

He's very much a kid and obviously raw, but I think what's most alarming about Zack is the way he labors in most of his starts.  He averages 5.63 IP and 98.8 pitches per start.  He has a 1.40 WHIP.  These are not good numbers at all.  This past start was yet another where his velocity dipped after the first inning or so.  Are all of these tough innings fatiguing him? 

 

I'm not saying he won't or can't be the ying to Harvey's yang in time, but I'll be very surprised if he takes the quantum-leap forward step next season that Harvey did this season.  It's great that he hasn't fallen flat on his face upon getting to the majors, but he's not all that far from having seen that happen.   

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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TC already hinted at Murphy playing 3B. I really hope this doesn't all culminate with Murphy at 3B, Eric Young at 2B, and Duda in LF, but I think it will, unfortunately. As if Wright getting hurt isn't bad enough. Ugh.

 

Definitely don't like the idea of flopping everyone around, especially if it means Doofus is suddenly back in the picture.  Guy had his chances and failed.  It's enough already with him. 

 

As the season is quickly falling apart (I think losing Wright, who passes for a superstar in Metsland, is too much to overcome), I'd go with Murph at third, give Flores a shot at second (why the hell not?), keep EY in left field, and give Davis the rest of the season at first base.

 

As much as I don't like Davis, he has a tremendous BB-to-K ratio (19-to-19) since coming back.  He has a .420 OB% in that time as well (.261 BA).  And he can play his position.  I get the feeling that he'll never hit the way we all hope he will, and I still feel like Satin probably isn't being given a fair shake in some ways.  But I think that the next two months should be enough time to see if Ike's newfound ability to get on base is:

 

1) Truly of the beginning/result of him seeing pitches better, or just a random sample of good fortune (he had a stretch like this last year, again in the second half).

2) Going to lead to him starting to hit the ball consistently, especially when the Mets need him to.  The .261 BA and .420 OB% seem hard to believe...when numbers like this don't "feel" as good as they look, that shows that the guy isn't really doing it in memorable spots.   

 

At any rate, there's rumors going around that the Mets might not even tender him an offer this offseason.  The Mets have 53 games left in this season, and now that they're 11 games (and likely counting) under .500, Passive's "Let's keep the mojo going" idea (which was incredibly stupid and short-sighted to begin with on his part...you can't hit home runs on every trade you make, and I think Sandy made little effort to try to move Byrd and anything else of short-term value) has to be scrapped.  I don't kid myself...I can see Ike being as frustrating to watch over these 53 games as he's been for most of the season, but at least there won't be any more "What if?"...if he continues to have trouble hitting .200 and seems to fail everytime the Mets really need him to do something, at least they can move on with a clear conscience.  If he actually builds off what he's done since coming back, I have no idea how the Mets should handle it.  Of course they'll be intrigued and hope that Ike has finally turned a corner, but will any of us be surprised if Ike starts off Opening Day going 0-4 with 4Ks, and then sucks through June yet again? 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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BTW, both Syndergaard AND Montero were terrific in their last starts.  Syndergaard went 5 IP and allowed no runs and two hits and one walk (3 K).  He's now allowed just 3 ER and 7 hits in his last three AA starts, to go with 18 K and 2 BB in 16 IP in that time.  5-0 with 1.98 ERA in 8 AA starts.  Hoping he finds his way to AAA by September.

 

Montero went 8 IP and allowed just 4 hits, one run and no BB in his last start.  He's now turned in three straight quality starts:  20 IP, 15 H, 6 ER, 6 BB, 12 K, 2.70 ERA.  Ks are a little low, but his numbers are headed the right way...maybe he gets a late-season call-up, cup-of-coffee start for the Mets, though probably not.

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I think Montero would definitely be a September call-up if it wasn't for the upcoming 40-man roster crunch, but as it is, it makes more sense for the Mets to just let him finish the season in AAA instead of wasting a valuable 40-man spot for a September start or three. I know we discussed this a couple weeks ago, but that's why we'll probably be seeing a lesser guy like DeGrom, who NEEDS to be added since he's Rule 5 eligible, instead.

Edited by nmigliore

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WFAN reporting Valdespin will be getting 50 games as well.  Couldn't happen to a nicer guy.  At least the Mets can (and should) wipe their hands of this punk.

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Fernando Martinez suspended too...not breaking news of course, but hilarious...how much would that guy suck without PEDs?!

 

Valdespin at least has his Vegas tear to look back on...guy hit friggin' .466 in 58 AB, with 24 RBI.   

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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I still remember how Martinez, Milledge and Gomez were going to be the jewels of the Omar farm system.  Well they were right on Gomez, but at least they got Santana for him (and to the Twins' immense embarassment Gomez is starring for the Brewers, not them).

Edited by NJDevs4978

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Milledge had a poor attitude and big head. Martinez I don't know what happened. Technically, that's 5 guys who were Yankees on the list including Melky and Montero. Alex and Cervelli being the other 2. Gomez is pretty talented. One of the most exciting outfielders. Funny how trades work out. But I'd still have made that move every time. And Johan tossed that no-no.

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I actually think Minnesota made a good deal in trading Gomez; where they did quite bad was in trading the player they GOT for Gomez. J.J. Hardy was coming off of a down year (2009) with Milwaukee but was one of the better shortstops in the game in 2007-2008. Gomez was still basically a lottery ticket at that point since he showed absolutely nothing at the plate; you wouldn't have been wrong to suggest he may amount to nothing more than a defense-first extra outfielder. Hardy gave Minnesota a very solid, if somewhat injury-suppressed 2010: 93 wRC+, 2.2 fWAR in 375 PA. And yet, they shipped him to Baltimore the following offseason for basically nothing. Or, if you want to be more specific: Jim Hoey, a reliever with a career 7+ ERA who lasted one year in Minnesota's organization, and Brett Jacobson, who never even made it to The Show and was out of the Twins' organization by the end of 2012. Anyway, kudos to the Brewers for showing so much patience with Gomez; they stuck with him despite a couple of weak offensive seasons and it's paid off in a big way with his emergence as a star and the fantastic contract he's locked into. 

 

re: the suspensions - totally expected 50 games on Puello. I've long had enough of Valdespin, hopefully this is the end of his time in this organization. I can't wait until he's cut off the 40-man.

Edited by nmigliore

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Great news from Adam Rubin:

 

NEW YORK -- Infield prospect Wilmer Flores, who fans have been clamoring to see since David Wright landed on the DL with a right hamstring strain, should be joining the major league club in the very near future, a baseball source told ESPNNewYork.com.  

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I'd be careful about anointing Carlos Gomez a bone-fide star just yet.  He was hitting .386 on May 8.  He's hitting .252 since then (career avg is .254).  He doesn't walk, never has (career OB% is .302).  He hits some home runs and steals some bases, but Gomez is not a guy I'm afraid is going to beat me in key moments. 

 

His numbers this season are puffed up massively by the first six weeks.  Let me see him be consistent over the course of a full year. 

 

Great news, re:  Flores coming up.        

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I'd be careful about anointing Carlos Gomez a bone-fide star just yet.  He was hitting .386 on May 8.  He's hitting .252 since then (career avg is .254).  He doesn't walk, never has (career OB% is .302).  He hits some home runs and steals some bases, but Gomez is not a guy I'm afraid is going to beat me in key moments. 

 

His numbers this season are puffed up massively by the first six weeks.  Let me see him be consistent over the course of a full year. 

 

He's already done that. Past 365 days: .282/.328/.504, 125 wRC+, 6.9 fWAR

 

Those 6.9 wins rank 5th among position players in MLB in that calendar-year time frame, only handful of runs behind the 3rd spot (Buster Posey). If you want to just look at offense, which is really unfair to Gomez's abilities considering he's a superb defender/baserunner, he ranks 5th in wRC+ among CF. He's playing a premium position at an elite defensive level while hitting as well as Billy Butler. That's really special. 

 

He's been one of the game's best players for more than just a few months. 

 

----

 

Flores is officially up, and it happens to be his birthday today. What an awesome birthday gift to officially become a Major Leaguer!

Edited by nmigliore

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Not going to make a big deal out of WAR or fWAR or whatever, that's an iffy one.

 

I know he's a terrific fielder.  Still not sold on him offensively yet.  Definitely not calling him one of the game's best players.

 

Also, the year-long sample is flawed...it includes the same 6-week burst in April and May of this season, and bloats the 365-day numbers accordingly as well.  Sorry, can't get THAT excited about a .255ish hitter/.305ish OB% guy who strikes out a plenty to boot, even if he's a great fielder.   

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Well Parnell is now on the DL with a herniated disk...which he apparently got from sleeping on a bad hotel pillow.

 

very weird.

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Ha, Ike continues his on-base madness: 4 PA, 4 times on base tonight. Also made a superb diving catch in foul territory to bail out Hawkins in the 9th. 

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Ike's numbers since coming back:

 

71 AB, 20 H, 7 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 21 BB, 19 K, 3-3 in SB attempts (?!), .282 BA, .446 OB%

 

Great stuff if Ike was a leadoff hitter/speedy type, and if was primarily his job to get on base, at all costs.  But Ike also needs to be hitting home runs and driving guys in.  He's not really doing that (it feels like he's left a small city's worth of runners on the basepaths), which is why the above doesn't feel nearly as impressive as it should.

 

That being said, there's very clearly silver linings to Ike's performance, beyond the obvious: 

 

1) He's by far and away the best defensive first baseman the Mets have. 

2) Before Ike was sent down, pitchers had little trouble getting Ike to get himself out on pitches out of the strike zone.  The terrific BB-to-K ratio shows that, if that's still the book on Ike, it's not really working at the moment.  That should mean he will see better pitches to hit sooner rather than later, which should hopefully lead to some dingers. 

 

I don't envy the Mets right now...Ike's last two seasons are as maddening as they get, especially when trying to plan the future of your team.  Which Ike is the real Ike?  It feels like the Mets are damned if they do, damned if they don't, with how they choose to handle him.  It wouldn't surprise me if they kept him and he went back to sucking AGAIN in 2014, and it wouldn't surprise if the Mets non-tendered him, and he went somewhere else and became a consistently pretty good player.  Either way, the Mets will be criticized when they probably don't deserve it, in this case. 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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96 pitches in 5.1 IP for Mejia yesterday, after throwing 96 in 6 IP in his last game.  And now his bone spurs are bothering him.  Hopefully, if the Mets envision him as part of the future (if the guy can actually stay healthy), they'll shut him down sooner than later, and get those bone spurs taken care of...at the very least, he's shown enough in his three starts to at least be in the discussion of who pitches in the 2014 rotation.  Like nmig has pointed out, the Mets can bring Jacob deGrom up if Mejia is shut down...his AA/AAA numbers this season are pretty meh, and at 25 he's not a kid (drafted out of college), but now's as good a time as any to find out if deGrom can get major league hitters out.  If Mejia is 100% at the start of spring training, I'm guessing Hef will be the clear odd man out, unless someone gets hurt (clearly a distinct possibility). 

 

This is probably the Mets rotation in 2014, if all goes according to plan: 

 

Harvey

Wheeler

Niese

Gee

Mejia/Montero/Hef

 

Wouldn't surprise me if Montero gets moved in part of a package for an outfielder this offseason, especially with Syndergaard not too far behind him in development, and looking like he has more upside...Syndergaard is tearing up AA and will likely get a nice look in spring training, though I'm guessing he'd really have to impress to have a shot at pitching himself into the Mets' early 2014 plans (earlier than a mid- or late-season call-up, anyway). 

 

It wouldn't surprise me if the Mets tried to get a team to take Hef in a package as well...I'm guessing they're probably thinking they've gotten more out of Hef than they possibly could've dreamed, and aren't really sure how much value he would have as a bullpen guy going forward.  The problem with that is I don't think other teams will see Hef as anything more than a throw-in, especially if his tough second half continues.     

 

Maybe the Mets try to shop Montero/Hef/Flores + one other player for an established outfielder.  Who the one other player would be, I don't know, but I DO know it's not going to be someone that the other team doesn't want...not a Duda/Valdespin/Satin/Tejada type (Yankee fans would expect to trade all four of these plus two other players no one wants for another team's best player)...it'd have to be someone who could help a team right away, even if he's far from great (like a Daniel Murphy-type...not saying Murph specifically in this case).  I'm guessing instead of Hef, the other team will ask for Syndergaard; Mets maybe counter with Niese (signed to a reasonable deal, but the only lefty in the Mets' rotation), or Gee (inconsistent within seasons, but has shown the ability to pitch well for extended periods).  I usually don't like playing GM, but I have a feeling Sandy's going to have a hell of a time completing a deal for an elite outfielder without other teams asking for Wheeler and or/Syndergaard right off the bat.        

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Mejia was in a great groove until the home plate umpire took a ball to the throat and they had to switch home plate umpires, causing a pretty lengthy delay. It's only three starts, but I've been very impressed with him so far: 18.1 IP, 18 K, 3 BB, 60.4 GB%, 12.8% swinging strike rate. Even in such a limited sample, those groundball and swinging strike rates are excellent. I don't think his control is nearly this good, so hopefully he keeps missing some bats and keeping the ball on the ground. 

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BTW, the schedule is about to get rough:  an 10-game West Coast trip, starting on Thursday, with an off-day eaten up by having to go to Minnesota to play a make-up game that will probably have less than 10k in attendance.  11 games in 11 days in four cities, then two at home against the Braves before they get an off-day.

 

Interestingly enough, as of today, the three WC teams the Mets face on this trip all have roughly the same home record:  Arizona is 31-24, LA is 31-25, and SD is 31-26.  Mets have a 27-28 road record. 

 

I would love a 6-5 trip, but I'm thinking 5-6 or 4-7 is more likely...I have a feeling this one's going to be a tough one. 

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After getting his first Major League hit earlier in the game, Flores breaks the game open with a bases-clearing double in the 8th, 5-0 Mets!! Harvey at just 91 pitches, let's see him go for the CG shutout!!

Edited by nmigliore

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He's fine. COMPLETE GAME SHUTOUT BABY!

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