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nmigliore

Official 2013 New York Mets Thread

1,815 posts in this topic

Harvey's monthly ERA is slowly rising:

 

April:  1.56

May:  2.15

June:  2.31

July:  2.57

August:  3.04

 

His BB per nine has been insanely good since the start of May...it was 2.68 for April, 1.30 for May thru August (9.66 K per nine in that May-August stretch).  Better than 7-to-1.  Hard to do much better than that.

 

What's kind of a shame is that we are probably watching what will be Harvey's best season, from a pure performance standpoint.  I'm not saying he can't be a terrific pitcher for the Mets in the years to come, but I think this season will be his best and most dominant overall.  I think July and August will be more representative of the pitcher he will be going forward, at least in the near future:

 

54.2 IP, 46 H, 17 ER, 7 BB, 55 K, 2.80 ERA

 

The above is terrific...a lot of teams would kill to have a guy who can pitch like that at the top of their rotation.  And if the Mets actually hit for him, that performance extrapolated over a full season will be plenty fine...that is clearly still ace territory.  None of this post is intended to knock Harvey in any way, but I think anyone expecting a full season of near 2.00-type ERAs going forward is probably asking too much, and it's also unfair to expect Harvey to forever hold teams to two runs or less for him to have any chance to win games (and THAT far often hasn't gotten the job done for him). 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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None of this post is intended to knock Harvey in any way, but I think anyone expecting a full season of near 2.00-type ERAs going forward is probably asking too much, and it's also unfair to expect Harvey to forever hold teams to two runs or less for him to have any chance to win games (and THAT far often hasn't gotten the job done for him). 

 

It absolutely is, just as it is unrealistic for just about every pitcher in baseball. Over the past 20 years, the following starters have had more than 1 season with an ERA of 2.30 or under (min. 150 IP per season): Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, Clayton Kershaw, and Greg Maddux. That's it. 3 No-Doubt Hall of Famers and the game's current best pitcher who is on an easy Hall of Fame pace.

Edited by nmigliore

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I know that nmig, but you know how some fans can get.  They see a 24-year-old who's been dominant for most of the season and think that somehow the guy is only going to get better, or will at the very least, somehow maintain.  This won't happen with Harvey.  Like I've said, we've very likely already seen his best.  If he can keep up his July-August numbers (or slightly worse than that) for a number of seasons, we should all be thrilled, as that is ace-level performance, but some will say things like "Why isn't he striking out as many guys?" or "How come he's allowing more hits or why is he giving up more runs?", etc.  You are too young to remember, but this is what Dwight Gooden went through after '84 and '85...obviously, there was a LOT more going on behind the scenes and it's only really come out in detail what a mess Doc really was in his memoir, but in the six years after '85, he went a solid 91-40, with a 3.28 ERA in that time.  He won 17+ games three times.  Even his last two full seasons as a Met, despite him having 10-13 and 12-15 records, really weren't that bad:  he had ERAs of 3.67 and 3.45...not great for '92 and '93, but far from awful.  He had a 3.05 ERA as a Met from '84-'93.  But for Dwight, it was '85-'85-'85, and that's all anyone wanted to talk about...he was always compared to that version of himself, even when he was still clearly an effective pitcher and still one of the very good ones.  After '84-'85, he could never give up few enough hits or strike out enough guys...it was like no one could handle him being good-to-very good...he needed to be dominant, all of the time. 

 

I just hope that fans can accept that Harvey can still be plenty terrific, even with ERAs approaching 3.00 and less Ks and more hits allowed (I know there are better numbers than these to measure performance, but a lot of fans still aren't saber-nerds, and many of them never will be), and that they won't continually say "Yeah, Harvey's been good, but in 2013..."

 

It's just so damned hard to be dominant year after year, especially as a pitcher.             

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Wow, a lot of slumbering bats are waking up in Minnesota.  Both EY and Murph are 2-for-3 today with an RBI each.  10 hits through four innings.

 

A 5-6 trip is very much within reach. 

 

d'Arnaud is 0-for-5 with 5 BB so far.  .500 OB% without a hit.  Don't see that often, even in 10 plate appearances.

 

Make that 0-for-6...just struck out for the first time in his MLB career.  Hopefully he doesn't get impatient and start trying to make that first hit happen.  It will on its own.

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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d'Arnaud now 0-for-7, second straight K.  Not watching this...is he starting to swing at pitches outside the strike zone? 

 

Mediocre Murph costs Gee his shutout, but Gee still hasn't given up an ER.  Only 85 pitches through 7 IP.

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Gee's numbers since May 30 (15 starts):  103 IP, 90 H, 26 ER, 10 HR, 22 BB, 77 K, 2.27 ERA, 6-2 record.  ERA on the season now down to 3.60.  Guy has had an amazing comeback within the season...he had a 6.34 ERA through his first 10 starts. 

 

Byrd ties a career-high with his 20th home run.  Has a shot at a career high in RBI too, if he gets really hot (he needs 22 more), and EY and Murph can start getting on base for a change.  Hard to believe the Mets got as much out of him as they have.   

 

3 Ks for Ike today.  Maybe the shock of hitting over .200 has become too much for him. 

 

Since the Mets were 17-29:  40-37

Since the Mets were 25-40:  32-26

 

Hard to believe the Mets are coming up on a half-season of over .500 ball. 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Idiot Terry really pushing Wheeler again. Should've really pulled him after the walk after the Janish hit.

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Nice job Terry you fvcking idiot.

 

would be a miracle if we win this game now

Edited by '7'

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'7', you really have to stop being so quick to bail on these guys. 

 

That being said, Terry is SUCH a fvcking AMATEUR.  How many times has he stuck with his young starters too long and seen it blow up in his face?  You'd think all that time no one wanted to hire him, he'd have learned something.  Not to mention Harvey and Wheeler are on innings limits. 

 

In fairness, Wheeler had has his share of relievers stranding his runners...it was bound to go the other way eventually. 

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Poor d'Arnaud...0 for 10 with 4 Ks.  Welcome to the majors kid.  Hope he gets that first hit soon.

 

And congrats to Byrd on setting a new career-high in HR...for better or for worse, I think he's become a lock to come back next season. 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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eh, I've just seen so many games against Atlanta follow this pattern.

 

I know everybody likes to use this old school "finish what you started kid" mantra. But most pitchers run out of gas at around 100-105. So I don't necessarily believe in testing his mettle there. If he looks worn out, replace him before the bases are loaded

 

d'Arnaud will get it together, I'm surprised at how long his swing is though.

 

Real bad AB by Young Jr. there. Downs threw ball one, didn't throw another one in the zone the rest of the way, and Young swung and missed at 3 nowhere close.

Edited by '7'

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EY is what he is.  Magic wore off some time ago.  Unfortunately I think Sandy likes him enough to bring him back. 

 

Holy crap, Mediocre Murph actually drew a walk!

 

I think each pitcher is different, but Wheeler's pitch counts have been way up there lately...he had thrown 322 pitches in the three starts before this one, and Terry has him throw 114 more tonight.  I know Zack got the first two batters out to start the 7th, but I think Terry has to pay attention to workloads, and let his starters leave a game with a chance to have a confidence-building stat line.  I would've taken Wheeler out after the double, and most definitely out after walk #1.  Terry is just maddening sometimes...just seems to have no regard for his young arms.

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Byrd would be the perfect #4 outfielder for us next year. But if he keeps hitting like this, he'll price himself out of the Mets and land in somebody's top 3.

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I'll say this for Ike...guys hits 'em a long way when he does hit them out.  Get the feeling we'll be wondering how much longer before he gets sent down next season, when he's hitting .160 in June.

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Byrd is probably going to be looking for a Ryan Ludwick-type of deal (he got 2/15 this offseason after having a resurrection season). Maybe he doesn't get 2 guaranteed years due to his age, but I could definitely see a team give him 1/8ish (or more) plus an option. Yeah he's old and this looks like a huge outlier, but he's going to finish the year as a 4-win player. Somebody is going give him a starting gig. No chance he accepts a 4th outfield role; worst case is someone signs him for just 1 year. 

Edited by nmigliore

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Byrd would be the perfect #4 outfielder for us next year. But if he keeps hitting like this, he'll price himself out of the Mets and land in somebody's top 3.

 

Not so sure.  I think his age and the fact that this is a career-type year will scare most teams off.  I think Passive's hoping he can do this in 2014...I agree on the 4th outfielder observation, but I think Sandy sees him as the Mets' 2014 right fielder.

 

YEAH TRAVIS!  GOOD FOR YOU!

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Not so sure.  I think his age and the fact that this is a career-type year will scare most teams off.  I think Passive's hoping he can do this in 2014...I agree on the 4th outfielder observation, but I think Sandy sees him as the Mets' 2014 right fielder.

 

YEAH TRAVIS!  GOOD FOR YOU!

 

Well if we stick with Byrd in RF, that throws a monkey wrench in the Shin Soo Choo option, since they're both RF's with only a handful of games in LF between them. Would love to get Choo and his .412 obp in the lineup next season

 

Especially with Lagares in center. It's looking like he'll stick there...and he will save some runs but he may top out at Daniel Murphy type OBP.

 

Ike is becoming an intriguing decision. Wouldn't shock me at all if they bring him back if he hits a few more HR's down the stretch and finishes with a .215 ish batting average. Also wouldn't shock me if he carries a .160 batting average into July of 2014 either.

 

Wright was interviewed during the game and was convinced he was coming back this year (said it emphatically as well as to refute what Collins said) however it's August 20th and he hasn't even resumed baseball activities. If we're still in this holding pattern a week from now they should just shut him down. Especially with colder September weather coming

Edited by '7'

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Nice win.  6-6 with four games left in what was looking like a brutal part of the sched.  Mets could still easily lose the next four, but if they go 2-2 over the next four games, I think they did a hell of a job. 

 

Not sure I'd run to Shin Soo Choo...get the feeling someone's going to grossly overpay for him, and he's already 31 years old.  Think I'd rather have Byrd for one year than Choo for 5+.

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Nice win.  6-6 with four games left in what was looking like a brutal part of the sched.  Mets could still easily lose the next four, but if they go 2-2 over the next four games, I think they did a hell of a job. 

 

Not sure I'd run to Shin Soo Choo...get the feeling someone's going to grossly overpay for him, and he's already 31 years old.  Think I'd rather have Byrd for one year than Choo for 5+.

 

He's always been a steady, consistent hitter with a great eye at the plate. Sure I'm worried about a big dropoff but I'm trying not to let the Bay debacle scare me away.

 

Ellsbury is the guy who scares me.

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He's always been a steady, consistent hitter with a great eye at the plate. Sure I'm worried about a big dropoff but I'm trying not to let the Bay debacle scare me away.

 

Ellsbury is the guy who scares me.

 

You could do worse than Choo, but he screams "High-priced free agent to me"...I could see the Mets signing him to a 5-6 year deal, then the deal being bad from Year 3 on.  The guy would definitely be an upgrade over EY though, and he gets on base any way possible...he's been hit by 23 pitches this season...ouch.

 

Mixed-results kind of game for Montero yesterday:  5 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K.  He pitched 122 innings last season and is up to 143.2 this season.  Has to be reaching his limit soon.

 

Carlos Torres looks like he's getting the start against Detroit on Friday, and will remain in the rotation.  This is incredibly stupid on the Mets' part...this start should be going to deGrom.  For one, it is extremely unlikely that Torres has any kind of a future here or anywhere else as a starting pitcher...his future as a major leaguer is going be as a bullpen/swingman type, not as an every-fifth-day guy.   deGrom will probably wind up filling a similar role...but why not find out how he fares against major-league hitters?  Torres is going to be 31 years old...overall he's been pretty good for the Mets, but suffice it to say the guy hasn't managed to stick in the majors, and has shown teasy flashes before.  deGrom is 25...look, he could come up here and suck, and I'll admit that his minor league numbers this year are far from awe-inspiring, but what exactly do the Mets have to lose by giving him a shot?  The Mets will need bodies next season when Mejia and Niese inevitably miss starts.  Might as well find out if deGrom could fill in.   

 

Mejia is done for the season (as he should be...getting surgery within the next 7-10 days), and looks like Hef is getting Tommy John surgery.  Pretty much takes Hef completely out of the Mets' future...he was a longshot to be a part of it anyway, but it's safe to say that there won't be a place for him in the rotation when he comes back (probably not until late 2014, if even that early), and even if he could handle a Torres-type role, the guess here is that the Mets will have found someone to fill that role.  In a league desperate for starting pitching, he'll get a shot somewhere else in time, once he's recovered...he'll be a scrap-heap signing for a Marlins-type team.   

 

Kinda sad how quickly it's turned for him...from being a wonderful surprise to struggling to being injured to missing the rest of this season and likely most, if not all, of next season.

 

Going to be interesting how the offseason works out, if Sandy tries to trade for bats.  If Gee continues to pitch well, I think Sandy will try to make him part of a deal.  But I think GMs are going to go hard after Wheeler or Syndergaard.        

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Nice start for Niese so far.

 

So Travis gets his first hit, and Terry sits him down for Buck.  Great thinking. 

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Nice start for Niese so far.

So Travis gets his first hit, and Terry sits him down for Buck. Great thinking.

Eh, day game after night game, and d'Arnaud has started every game he's been up here for. Unfortunate timing, I guess, but I don't see anything wrong with this. Edited by nmigliore

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Eh, day game after night game, and d'Arnaud has started every game he's been up here for. Unfortunate timing, I guess, but I don't see anything wrong with this.

 

Suffice it to say d'Arnaud doesn't exactly have a lot of miles on the odometer this season, so the day-game-after-a-night-game thing doesn't mean much here.  No, it's probably not that big a deal in the grand scheme, just would've liked to have seen him get a chance to build off the hit.

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Good outing by Niese. Looked like he was shaken up after the Heyward hit to the head and the Braves jumped on him. Didn't like the hit and run with the super slow Satin (and Flores went fishing for ball 4)

To be fair Niese threw ball 1 and 2 to Shafer with the bases loaded. Both called strikes.

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Terry's refusal to take out his starting pitcher when he's nearing empty doesn't blow up in his face...this time.  18 K in Niese's last two starts (13 IP).

 

'7', what was the deal with that Heyward pitch?  I'm assuming one that just flat-out got away from Niese?

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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