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nmigliore

Official 2013 New York Mets Thread

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Suffice it to say d'Arnaud doesn't exactly have a lot of miles on the odometer this season, so the day-game-after-a-night-game thing doesn't mean much here.

 

Okay but still, it's a common place move. Who cares? I'm actually surprised d'Arnaud played every game up until this point.

Edited by nmigliore

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Terry's refusal to take out his starting pitcher when he's nearing empty doesn't blow up in his face...this time.  18 K in Niese's last two starts (13 IP).

 

'7', what was the deal with that Heyward pitch?  I'm assuming one that just flat-out got away from Niese?

Yea...it was a 1-2 pitch too. Heyward looked very woozy...think NHL player after a Stevens hit. Probably concussed.

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Not going to turn this into a major thing, kid finally got his first hit, was probably excited as hell, then has to sit for John Friggin' Buck...like I've said, Buck did about all that could've been expected, and I appreciate that, and I don't kid myself that he's never playing another game, of course he's going to get some ABs.  Timing just seemed a little unfair to d'Arnaud IMO. 

 

Man, it really feels like the only way you're guaranteed a win if you're a Mets' SP is to never give up a run.   

 

Niese is definitely not the headhunter type...I could see him being shaken up after that (as would a lot of pitchers). 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Once Lagares failed in the clutch, had a feeling something like this was coming.  Oh well, that's why the Braves are who they are, and the Mets are where they are.  At least the Mets are headed the right way.

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Wow, saw that Collins finally showed a pulse with regards to an umpire.  About time Terry. 

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Once Lagares failed in the clutch, had a feeling something like this was coming.  Oh well, that's why the Braves are who they are, and the Mets are where they are.  At least the Mets are headed the right way.

 

The call at first is also why we're getting expanded instant replay next year. Much like the Dodgers on that Lagares 3-2 ball 4 called strike 3 a week ago...the Braves are good, they don't need the extra help from the umps against us (and who knows if we would've won anyway)

 

I was disappointed in Flores at bat in the 9th with a man on 2nd. He put a "move the runner over with no outs" swing on it when there was 1 out. It was a 1/2 cut on a ball outside.

 

Lagares eventually needs to learn some plate discipline. 1 walk every 31 AB's or so is pretty wretched.

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The call at first is also why we're getting expanded instant replay next year. Much like the Dodgers on that Lagares 3-2 ball 4 called strike 3 a week ago...the Braves are good, they don't need the extra help from the umps against us (and who knows if we would've won anyway)

 

I was disappointed in Flores at bat in the 9th with a man on 2nd. He put a "move the runner over with no outs" swing on it when there was 1 out. It was a 1/2 cut on a ball outside.

 

Lagares eventually needs to learn some plate discipline. 1 walk every 31 AB's or so is pretty wretched.

 

I won't kill Flores...he's a just-turned 22-year-old rookie...growing pains are to be expected.

 

Yeah, Lagares is a rookie too, but he needs work at the plate; glove notwithstanding, you can only have so many guys in the lineup who don't hit for average and don't get on base.  The Mets are loaded with bats like that.  The only exceptions are David Wright (has his warts, but he's clearly the best avg/OB guy on the team), and Josh Satin (who definitely isn't going to be a regular here, or anywhere else, unless it's on a bad team or a team in transition). 

 

Here's where I'm guessing the positions are set (could be wrong of course):

 

CF:  Lagares...I think the Mets like the glove enough that they're hoping he'll overcome his offensive deficiencies with experience.

RF:  Byrd...I have a feeling he's coming back...he likes it here and I think he's going to very reasonable with his contract demands.

1B:  Sadly, I think Davis is still the Mets' first baseman.  The high OB% since coming back probably has Sandy & Co. intrigued.  This one could really blow up in the Mets' faces.  All I know is if this friggin' guy is hitting .150 by the end of April, no more giving him 6 more weeks to fvck his teammates over. 

3B:  Duh. 

C:  Duh...just hope d'Arnaud stays healthy.

 

So that's 2B, LF, and SS. 

 

As far as 2B and SS go, I wonder if Sandy, who's going to have some serious coin to spend, would ever go the Yankee route, and do something really drastic.  This probably never happens, and I wouldn't be on board with it if it did, but would the Mets even dream of bringing Jose Reyes back?  I could see why Toronto would want to unload him...he has four years left on his deal (with an option for a 5th), and got hurt yet again this season (that's the fourth time in the last five years he's been hurt).  I'm guessing they'd be happy getting Syndergaard back...I'm sure they're in "Why the hell did we trade him?" mode...but I can't see Sandy ever giving Syndergaard up for Reyes (nor would I want him to).  I don't want Reyes back...I think he's been overrated for some time, and I also don't think he's a winner or a major difference-maker (when's the last time a team with Reyes playing for it did anything?), and his contract has disaster-in-the-making written all over it...I'm just wondering if Sandy would even entertain the idea, and if so, how far he'd go to make it happen.  Toronto might be happy just getting out from the remainder of Reyes' deal at this point.   

 

2B...Murph is Murph.  He hits doubles and occasionally gets insanely hot.  Doesn't do anything else well at the plate.  He's a competent fielder, but won't ever be better than that.  He's slow.  Basically, he's the kind of guy you get when no one else is available, but you're looking to upgrade over, unless you're a team that's so stacked everywhere else, that his plate deficiencies don't hurt you...he'd be a great 9th-place hitter on a great AL team.  Does Sandy dare throw his hat into the Robinson Cano ring, if Cano doesn't sign with the Yankees during the Yanks' exclusive negotiating window?  And by "throwing his hat" in, I don't mean the Mets' past practice of going in half-assed, shrugging their shoulders, and saying "Well, we tried, oh well."  I mean offering an insane deal that would have the Yankees thinking long and hard about matching it (remember, Hank is looking to reign in the spending a bit).  And if the Yankees do match it, are the Mets willing to go even higher?  (Basically, do biz the way the Yankees did for so long.) 

 

I'm not saying I'm in favor of either of these moves...I'm not a Reyes fan, I think he had his chance here, and I don't really want to go back.  He's still got a lot of money coming to him, and he's injury-prone.  Cano isn't known for being a hustler (can't see that getting better when he gets the big money), and the Mets are going to overspend massively to pry him away from the Yanks.  The Mets will be tying up a LOT of money into two positions, and logic dictates that there's a chance that their best years could be behind them by the time they were to become Mets.  Cano will be 31 years old when the season starts, and Reyes will be 31 on June 11.  

 

If all this ever actually happened (it won't), who knows what the Mets would do about LF.  I think Sandy would drop dead of a heart attack if he actually pulled off the above.

 

This is me more wondering aloud if Sandy would ever be this aggressive in trying to make 2014 and beyond "Instant Contention" years.   

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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If I may give an opinion...

 

Asdrubal Cabrera seems available for trade.  Only one year left @ $10 Million, but he's going to be buried behind Francisco Lindor in the near future, so it makes sense for the Indians to trade him, especially if they get an SP in return.  And if you believe his second half BA decline is just a blip on the radar (didn't do too much analysis on it really) this article (which makes the case for him going to the Cardinals or Reds) projects him as a 2.5-3 win player that's not a defensive nightmare.

 

It kind of depends on whether the Mets a) want to give up a young starting pitcher and b) want to contend in 2014.  He's no superstar, but probably a better fit than a Stephen Drew, and he's a clear upgrade over Tejada/Quintanilla

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I think projecting Cabrera as a 3-win player next year is pretty optimistic. He's been a replacement level player this year, and while his true talent is better than that, the decrease in contact is pretty concerning, and the power output of 2011 is very unlikely to come back. He's a dreadful SS and defense only gets worse with age. He's not a bad guy to take a flier on in a trade, but I absolutely wouldn't give up much; I'd treat it as a pure salary dump kind of deal, and even then, it's questionable whether he's worth the gamble for $10M.

 

Personally, I much prefer Jhonny Peralta as a target. He's basically tied with Jose Reyes in fWAR since 2011 and only a handful of runs behind the #1 guy on that list, Troy Tulowitzki. I wouldn't actually put him in their class as far as 2014 expectations go, and +26 runs saved defensively is hard to believe from a guy with a reputation as a mediocre-to-poor defender, but even just looking at offense he ranks 5th among SS in wRC+ in that time frame. More importantly, the PED suspension will kill his market and he'll probably have to settle for a 1 year deal or a lower AAV 2-year deal (a la Melky Cabrera).

 

You can probably get him for the salary price of Asdrubal, except without having to give up any talent to get him, and you'd likely be getting the better player.

Edited by nmigliore

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I know Byrd was a PED cheat who's having a good year now, but I'm not a big fan of bringing former PED guys in.  Sadly, it's not looking like a great SS market.  Peralta may the best available option.

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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B-Mets clinched a playoff spot last night.  Verette (11-6) is now tied for the league in wins.   

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Mets signed Daisuke Matsuzaka and he's supposedly going to slot right into the pitching staff. Guess that means deGrom is pretty much at the end point and the AAA options behind him are all terrible anyway.

 

Dice-K is boring as hell to watch, so from an entertainment perspective, this might not be all that fun.

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This guy has largely been sh!t the past four seasons, when he's been able to pitch.  This move makes absolutely NO sense. 

 

Yeah, guess deGrom doesn't get a shot here.  He seemed iffy to me anyway, but why not give him a friggin' chance?

 

I'm guessing the main reason Sandy is doing this is because of a lot of young Met arms are approaching their innings limits, and he wants to keep Torres in the bullpen.  This stuff I can understand to some extent...but Dice K?  The guy barely averages over 5 IP per start, usually to the tune of 100-110 pitches.  I know we'd rather see anybody other than the Laffeys, Schwindens, Foxes...yeah, Montero is really all that Vegas has right now.  Giancarlo Alvarado was doing a decent job until his last two starts (4 IP, 10 ER)...he's 25 years old.   

 

I know Dice K is basically just another warm body...guess I just wish it was a different warm body.  Should've been deGrom. 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Eh, the move makes sense; it was clearly done because of the innings cap on young arms. Why else would they not bring up deGrom, who has performed well AND needs to be added to the 40-man this winter? He has to be at the end of his season, or very close to it. Dice-K is just a 1 month placeholder because everyone else in AAA (not including Montero since we've been over this countless times) pretty much stinks. Whatever.  

Edited by nmigliore

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Giancarlo Alvarado was doing a decent job until his last two starts (4 IP, 10 ER)...he's 25 years old.   

 

-10 years ;) ..

 

His "success" is a bit misleading too - he's running a near 1:1 K/BB. Dice-K is what he is, and he quite literally may be the toughest pitcher to watch with his walks and slow pace, but he's at least a better option than everyone not named deGrom or Montero in AAA. If deGrom wasn't facing an innings cap he'd 99.99% be here, I'm sure of it.

 

I mean even if they brought up someone like Alvarado I wouldn't have cared; it's just to get a warm body here to plug up innings and preserve the arms of the young guns (that includes Wheeler and Harvey). 

Edited by nmigliore

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-10 years ;) ..

 

His "success" is a bit misleading too - he's running a near 1:1 K/BB. Dice-K is what he is, but he's at least a better option than everyone not named deGrom or Montero in AAA. If deGrom wasn't facing an innings cap he'd 99.99% be here, I'm sure of it.

 

Oops, LMAO.  Yeah, big difference between 25 and 35.  D'oh!

 

I think the Mets are probably being overcautious re: an innings cap with deGrom, but so be it.  5 weeks of Dice K is all we have to suffer through, and it's only once every 5 days or so.  Still gives me the :puke: , but like we've both said, no thanks to the trainwrecks not named Montero and deGrom that make up the rest of the AAA rotation.

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Speaking of guys who ARE named Montero...his last 5 AAA starts:  33 IP, 24 H, 6 ER, 2 HR, 7 BB, 31 K, 3-1 record, 1.64 ERA.  Nice recovery from a rough beginning there. 

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Yeah, he and deGrom have been almost statistically identical too (overall AAA numbers):

 

Montero: 320 batters faced, 20.3 K%, 7.2 BB%, 3.08 FIP

deGrom: 296 batters faced, 19.6 K%, 7.1 BB%, 3.19 FIP

 

deGrom's ERA is a bit higher due to a .343 BABIP, but in the perspective of only things they can control, they've been practically the same pitcher. deGrom is 2+ years older and probably has a slightly lower ceiling, but still, it would be pretty nice if he ends up fitting in as a back of the rotation arm. 

 

There's just so many arms in the top level of this organization (MLB, AAA, AA) that I can't imagine the Mets not looking to swing some trades this winter that involve some.

 

And again, Sandy will have tons of flexibility this winter with just Wright and Niese under contract for 2014. If they don't trade any MLB arms, the rotation is pretty much set for next year too. Time to make your mark Sandy.

Edited by nmigliore

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Yeah, he and deGrom have been almost statistically identical too (overall AAA numbers):

 

Montero: 320 batters faced, 20.3 K%, 7.2 BB%, 3.08 FIP

deGrom: 296 batters faced, 19.6 K%, 7.1 BB%, 3.19 FIP

 

deGrom's ERA is a bit higher due to a .343 BABIP, but in the perspective of only things they can control, they've been practically the same pitcher. deGrom is 2+ years older and probably has a slightly lower ceiling, but still, it would be pretty nice if he ends up fitting in as a back of the rotation arm. 

 

There's just so many arms in the top level of this organization (MLB, AAA, AA) that I can't imagine the Mets not looking to swing some trades this winter that involve some.

 

And again, Sandy will have tons of flexibility this winter with just Wright and Niese under contract for 2014. If they don't trade any MLB arms, the rotation is pretty much set for next year too. Time to make your mark Sandy.

 

We've discussed this, but we know who will be in the rotation for sure next year (I think):

 

Harvey (duh)

Wheeler (making nice progress, eye-friendly numbers, throws hard)

Niese (lefty on a team that doesn't have much in the way of lefty starters, won't be asked to be a top or near-top of the rotation guy anymore, very reasonable contract)

 

After that, I think, for the right return, some of the following can be had:  Gee, Mejia, Montero, Syndergaard, deGrom.  You've got Goeddel and Verrett in AA too.  Unfortunately, I think if the Mets are looking to add something really big, it's going to cost them Syndergaard for sure.  It'd be interesting to see what a package of, say, Gee/Syndergaard/Flores could bring back.  I hate the idea of giving up Syndergaard, I really do, but once Sandy says no to anyone coveting Wheeler, I think those GMs insist on Syndergaard next.   

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I didn't think Dice-K was still active  :lol:

 

He was on Cleveland's AAA team (19 starts for the Columbus Clippers)...numbers were pretty good, but it's AAA and Dice K is 32 years old with major-league experience, so pretty good isn't really all that good.  He's only getting this chance because the Mets have arms they'd rather not see injured or worn out...he's Rudy.  "Your best value to us is we don't care if you get hurt." 

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He was on Cleveland's AAA team (19 starts for the Columbus Clippers)...numbers were pretty good, but it's AAA and Dice K is 32 years old with major-league experience, so pretty good isn't really all that good.  He's only getting this chance because the Mets have arms they'd rather not see injured or worn out...he's Rudy.  "Your best value to us is we don't care if you get hurt." 

 

Yeah but it's a mutually beneficial pairing, we're giving him an audition for him to get a ML contract next year too.

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Yeah but it's a mutually beneficial pairing, we're giving him an audition for him to get a ML contract next year too.

 

I agree, though I think everyone's very leery of him.  Even if he pitches well, I don't think teams will line up to sign him...even ones desperate for starting pitching.  He's had injury/health issues and has made a total of 55 starts over the last four seasons. 

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Article on Syndergaard...he's been being held to five innings per start due to innings limits looming (and because the B-Mets want him to pitch in the playoffs).  He last pitched on August 16, and isn't pitching tonight (Goeddel is)...not sure if the Mets are holding him back until the playoffs begin. 

 

http://www.pressconnects.com/article/20130820/SPORTS/308200070/Syndergaard-king-hill-playoff-bound-B-Mets

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