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nmigliore

Official 2013 New York Mets Thread

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Fun Murphy fact that I doubt many people knew about: he has a better OPS+ and wRC+ than Brandon Phillips the last two seasons. He doesn't hold Phillip's jock defensively of course, but talking exclusively about offense, Murphy has absolutely been the better hitter. He has also topped Ian Kinsler at the plate these last two seasons. Just shows you how convoluted it is just to look at triple slash line stats.

 

 

Edited by nmigliore

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For those of you who are wondering what OPS+ and wRC+ mean exactly:

 

OPS+ =  On-Base + Slugging Plus

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Everything-you-always-wanted-to-know-about-OPS-?urn=mlb,204667

 

Basically factors in both league and parks with OPS to make comparisons between players (even ones from different eras) easier.  Makes sense, in that some guys play in bandboxes and launching pads, while others clearly don't.

 

100 is average, anything below 100 is below average, anything above 100 is above average.

 

wRC+ =  Weighted Runs Created Plus...this is also park and league adjusted, and has the same scale as OPS+, with 100 being average, etc.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/wrc/

 

So here what each player's slash line was, with his OPS+ and wRC+ numbers:

 

Murphy

2012:  .291/.332/.403   OPS+: 102   wRC+: 103

2013:  .285/.318/.415   OPS+: 106   wRC+: 107

 

Phillips

2012:  .281/.321/.429   OPS+: 101   wRC+:  98

2013   .262/.312/.400   OPS+:  93    wRC+:  93

 

Kinsler

2012:  .256/.326/.423   OPS+: 100   wRC+:  97

2013:  .274/.339/.408   OPS+: 102   wRC+:  103

 

They're all pretty close...Murph hits more, and none of them are particulary great at getting on base.

 

Of course, what would be interesting to see (won't ever happen) is what Murph could do hitting at a place like Great American Bandbox for half of his games, for one year.  Would that suddenly vault him into .300 avg/.340 OB% territory, with 18-20 HRs?       

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Juan Centeno threw out Billy Hamilton. First time he's been thrown out. Cool accomplishment.

Edited by nmigliore

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I can't believe what I'm about to post:

 

26.1 IP, 13 H, 6 R, 4 ER, 9 BB, 21 K, 1.54 ERA

 

That is what one Dice K has managed to do in his last four starts.   

 

In a league that's willing to look ANYWHERE for starting pitching, this guy has probably just bought himself an invite to some team's spring training, with a chance to make the team.  It won't be here (nor should it be), but considering where he was less than a month ago, that's a pretty amazing turnaround.   

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Kudos to 40-year old LaTroy Hawkins. We haven't had much reason to talk about him but he's been very good since taking over the closer's role and has had a nice season overall. I definitely did not expect this when he was signed. 

 

And yeah, Dice-K has had a nice stretch to end the season. 

 

Still sucks to see this team blowing their chances at a protected pick. If they lose their 1st rounder and its bonus allotment, that really puts a crimp in the rest of the draft.

Edited by nmigliore

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Another 0-fer for Doofus...I hope he keeps this up...though I could see Sandy saying "Hmmmmmm, maybe" if he hits three home runs and has a big series against the Brewers. 

 

I can't see how Carlos Torres hasn't earned himself a spot on next year's Mets.  6 out of the 8 starts he made were solid...he did get roughed up in the other two, but he's at least shown he can fill in when needed, and he did a good job out of the bullpen too. 

 

re: Hawkins, even Fatso admitted he was surprised while he was stammering away in his weekly spot with Collins.  Check out these numbers since August 29:

 

13 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 12 K, 8-for-8 in save opportunities.  Think about it...if you traded for a closer at the deadline, this is the kind of performance you'd be praying to get.  I wonder if the Mets consider bringing him back (an obvious risk because of his age, but he won't cost much $$$).   

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I'd be willing to bring him back. He seems like the type that will be fine settling for very little salary wise and he has a good familiarity with the manager and the organization. He and Black setting up Parnell could be a solid late-game bullpen next year.

 

re: Torres - no doubt, he's kind of become what Jeremy Hefner was in 2012, but even better. I'm too lazy to go find the quote but TC recently said he's definitely earned a spot on the pitching staff next season. 

Edited by nmigliore

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Next year's pitching staff could really be terrific...even without Harvey (which I'm kind of assuming will happen...I don't expect Harvey to pitch for the Mets until 2015)...at the very least, there's a lot of reason for hope.  Just hope Sandy can find some damned bats...

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I can't believe what I'm about to post:

 

26.1 IP, 13 H, 6 R, 4 ER, 9 BB, 21 K, 1.54 ERA

 

That is what one Dice K has managed to do in his last four starts.   

 

In a league that's willing to look ANYWHERE for starting pitching, this guy has probably just bought himself an invite to some team's spring training, with a chance to make the team.  It won't be here (nor should it be), but considering where he was less than a month ago, that's a pretty amazing turnaround.   

 

Supposedly all the non-terrible starts have come since the Mets told him in no uncertain terms to speed everything up.  

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Supposedly all the non-terrible starts have come since the Mets told him in no uncertain terms to speed everything up.  

 

Funny, that (and a trip to the minors) got Steve Trachsel turned around too.  In one of his last starts before he got sent down (this was 2001, his first season with the Mets), it was hot at Shea, and I remember the crowd chanting "Throw the ball!  Throw the ball!" and players noticably getting restless in between pitches.  He went down to the minors for three starts (think he threw a no-hitter in one of them), then came back up with a streamlined repertoire and took much less time between pitches.  He was pretty good after that...his ERA was 8.24 after 8 starts, and just 3.35 in the 20 starts after his recall.  He pitched to a 3.37 ERA in 2002 and a 3.78 ERA in 2003...he had been pretty awful in 1999-00 (16-33 W-L record that was pretty indicative of his pitching), so the Mets really got more out of him than anyone had any right to expect.  He was a solid 66-59 in 160 starts as a Met, with a 4.09 ERA.   

 

He also had a bizarre stretch where he had an ERA over 5.00 for a 15-start stretch in 2006...yet somehow managed to go 12-1 during that time. 

 

I could be wrong, but I think in 2003, he had three straight starts where he was perfect through five innings.  I know he threw two one-hitters that year. 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Funny, that (and a trip to the minors) got Steve Trachsel turned around too.  In one of his last starts before he got sent down (this was 2001, his first season with the Mets), it was hot at Shea, and I remember the crowd chanting "Throw the ball!  Throw the ball!" and players noticably getting restless in between pitches.  He went down to the minors for three starts (think he threw a no-hitter in one of them), then came back up with a streamlined repertoire and took much less time between pitches.  He was pretty good after that...his ERA was 8.24 after 8 starts, and just 3.35 in the 20 starts after his recall.  He pitched to a 3.37 ERA in 2002 and a 3.78 ERA in 2003...he had been pretty awful in 1999-00 (16-33 W-L record that was pretty indicative of his pitching), so the Mets really got more out of him than anyone had any right to expect.  He was a solid 66-59 in 160 starts as a Met, with a 4.09 ERA.   

 

He also had a bizarre stretch where he had an ERA over 5.00 for a 15-start stretch in 2006...yet somehow managed to go 12-1 during that time. 

 

I could be wrong, but I think in 2003, he had three straight starts where he was perfect through five innings.  I know he threw two one-hitters that year. 

 

Yeah 2006 was funny. Pretty much textbook example of why W-L records are garbage. He won 15 games with an ERA right under 5. Not that I was complaining then but that's so ridiculous.

 

I just looked it up: his average run support was 5.5 runs per game. 

 

For comparison, Matt Harvey's average run support per game in his career has been 3.1 runs per game. 

Edited by nmigliore

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Yeah 2006 was funny. Pretty much textbook example of why W-L records are garbage. He won 15 games with an ERA right under 5. Not that I was complaining then but that's so ridiculous.

 

I just looked it up: his average run support was 5.5 runs per game. 

 

For comparison, Matt Harvey's average run support per game in his career has been 3.1 runs per game. 

 

Funny thing is that 5.5 RPG isn't really THAT high, in terms of run support...there are guys who have gotten more...especially in the 'Roid Era.

 

If you check out the game log from that incredibly fortuitous 12-1 run, you'll see that he was oddly consistent, in that most of his starts were from 5-7 innings, and he was allowing 2-4 ERs.  So while he wasn't shutting anyone down, he wasn't really letting games get completely out of hand either...but he definitely benefitted from awesome run support (6.73 RPG in that 15-game, 12-1 stretch), and strong bullpen support as well.  I kind of remember everyone shrugging their shoulders and saying "Well, he's finding ways to win..."

 

I had to look it up and put the 15-game stretch together...I know it was still the 'Roid Era, but when you look at these numbers, this could be the worst anyone's ever pitched to go 12-1: 

 

84.2 IP, 97 H, 49 ER, 42 BB, 39 K, 16 HR, 5.21 ERA 

 

I remember noted moron Joe Morgan, who could ALWAYS be counted on to utter idiotic things, at one point saying something along the lines of, "I'd rather have the guy who has an ERA closer to 4.00 with a winning record than a guy with a lower ERA who has a lot of losses, because the other guy is the one who knows how to win."  So I guess Steve Trachsel wasn't just tremendously lucky for those 15 starts...he just knew how to win.  Right Joe.

 

One guy who I always remember being pretty lucky was Jack Morris (winningest pitcher in the 80s).  He did have his strong suits...he rarely missed his starts, threw a lot of innings (from 1980 to 1989 he threw 133 complete games), and had some big playoff games, but had a lifetime ERA of 3.90 and always seemed to benefit from strong run support.  He had a way of winning 16-20 games that kind of had you saying, "How'd he do that?" 

 

A guy who I think had a very similar career to Morris is Andy Pettitte...their numbers are actually pretty similar, except that Pettitte gave up a lot more hits per 9 IP than Morris (Pettitte was at 9.9, Morris was at 8.4).  Morris had a career 254-186 record, Pettitte 255-153.  Morris had a career 1.296 WHIP, Pettitte 1.352.  ERAs were 3.90 for Morris (ERA+ 105), 3.86 for Pettitte (ERA+ 117).  Pettitte was nowhere near the innings workhorse that Morris was, but that's also era-related.  But to me, neither guy was really as good as their win totals would lead one to believe.  What both were good at was taking the ball every fifth day and putting their teams in position to win on their days...provided their teams could plate four or more runs.     

 

BTW, for those who don't know, ERA+ factors in the league average ERA for any given season, and the pitcher's ballpark.  Scale is similar to some others, in that 100 is average, <100 is below average, >100 is above.  We already know this guy is great, but Pedro Martinez has a career ERA+ of 154 (second all-time, behind Mariano Rivera's absurd 206) and had seasons of 200 or better five times, including four consecutive. 

 

Not everyone near the top of the list screams greatness (John Franco is 17th all-time at 138, tied with Cy Young of all people), but it does help to flesh out ERAs, especially when trying to compare across eras.  As great as Gibson's 1968 ERA was (1.12), the league ERA was just 2.99, and Gibson's ERA+ was 258 for that year...excellent number for sure, but ranks just 7th all-time.  Martinez's 2000 season saw him put up an ERA+ of 291 (second all-time), for comparison's sake...he pitched to a 1.74 ERA in a league where the league average was 4.92.  That is insane. 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Jack Morris is kind of looked at as the prime sabermetric vs traditional divide in HoF voting. Traditionalists, like Jon Heyman, always argue "he pitched to the score" and "he knew how to win games" yet his overall numbers were really average. I mean the guy was still a good pitcher -- he finished his career with a slightly above average park/league-adjusted ERA over nearly 4000 career innings -- but he definitely wasn't HoF material. He gets severely overrated because of the gaudy win totals he put up as a Tiger in the 1980's and his oft-cited defeat of John Smoltz in Game 7 of the 1991 World Series.

 

Seeing that Morris isn't a HoF'er doesn't even require someone to be into sabermetrics, frankly; it's not like people are trying to say his ERA didn't support his peripherals (FIP) or anything like that (ironically, he underperformed his peripherals by about 10 WAR for his career). Simply, he was just pretty good pitcher who threw a lot of innings. He's had exactly one season with an ERA 30% or better than the league average and only five seasons in which he was between 20 and 29% better than league average. That's good, but that's just not the kind of dominance you look for in a HoF'er. Check out Kevin Brown's B-Ref page and sort his stats by ERA+ and compare it to Jack Morris' for fun. The difference is hilarious, yet Brown was on the ballot just once -- in 2011 -- and received just a 2.1% vote, leaving him to be erased off the ballot. Maybe you don't think Brown was a HoF'er (I do) but the difference in voting is a travesty when you compare their career numbers.

 

re: Pettitte - he has his similarities to Morris but still better overall numbers (career 117 ERA+ to Morris' 105) as well as a stronger peak (Pettitte's 1997 and 2005 seasons were better than any season Morris ever had). Petttitte remained an anchor in the latter half of his career; he's had exactly ONE season out of 18 in which his ERA was below average (2008). Jack Morris, in the same amount of career seasons, had SEVEN season with an ERA below average. And, I've tried not to use it, but Pettitte also passes the WAR sniff test (barely, but it doesn't include postseason play, which does some injustice to him); ideally the HoF zone is around 60 and Pettitte has accumulated +60.5 B-Ref WAR and +68.1 fWAR; Morris finished his career at +43.8 B-Ref WAR and +52.2 fWAR. This isn't to say I absolutely think Pettitte is a HoF'er, but his case is definitely stronger than Morris'. 

Edited by nmigliore

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Each year, Baseball America puts out top prospect lists for each MiLB league. The other day they put out the GCL Top 20 and ranked 1B Dom Smith, the team's 1st round pick from this year's draft, #4 in the league. They praised Smith's swing and pitch recognition and said he had plus hit and power tool potential, as well as the potential for Gold Glove-caliber defense at 1B (nothing really different from draft reports). Smith, in 198 PA in the GCL, hit .287/.384/.407.

 

Today, their Appalachian League Top 20 came out and shockingly had Mets' SS Amed Rosario #1. Rosario didn't hit much -- .241/.279/.358 -- but this just goes to show you why reports are so much more important than statistics when you are at the lower levels. Rosario was making his pro debut, and at just 17 years old, the Appy was an aggressive assignment. The scouting report raved about him: makes it look easy at SS, plus arm, rave review on hit tool, 20-25 HR potential, can even run; star upside.

 

A couple of other Mets' pitchers made the back-end of the list. But I was very excited to see that report on Rosario. Of course the risk is extreme since you're talking about a kid in rookie ball who hasn't even translated the potential into games yet, but I definitely feel better about him than I did during the season. 

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I don't think of Jack Morris or Andy Pettitte as Hall-Of-Famers (neither dominated), and I think how I summed both guys up is pretty accurate:  you could count on them to take the ball every fifth day and give you a performance that would probably keep you in most games, and innings to boot.  Neither really wowed while doing their thing (I remember during a playoff game, an announcer noted of Morris "Well, he just kind of plods along, gets you innings, gives his team a chance to win on his days.").  It was never really pretty with either guy...especially with Pettitte, who was not a hard guy to get base hits off. 

 

Both guys definitely benefitted from who they pitched for and good run support...I don't either guy could've stubbornly overcome bad teams, the way Steve Carlton-types could.

 

I wouldn't say Kevin Brown is a Hall-Of-Famer, but he was definitely a LOT better than most people remember him (career ERA+ of 127).  From '96-'01 he was terrific...ERA+s of 215, 150, 164, 143, 167 and 151 in those seasons...also had a 163 in 2003.  This isn't his fault, but in that '96-'01 stretch, he went 92-45 (he really should've had a much better record than that)...I do remember him getting screwed pretty badly back in the day, as far as run support goes.  If he had been awesome in the playoffs, that might have helped him a little, but he was kind of up-and-down. 

 

From all accounts, Brown was also known as a major prick...he was pretty well despised, which didn't help his cause.  He's also a Mitchell Report guy, and some speculate that his tantrums were 'roid-related.  Not that all Hall-Of-Famers are swell lovable guys.        

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Carlos Gomez acting like a douche against the Braves:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oj9_F5fwiaA

 

Maybe someone should remind him he's been a .226 hitter since July 6.  Or that his team is 22.5 games out of first. 

 

Congrats on having three big months in the majors Carlos.  Now you can go back to being the .250ish/no walks/strike out a ton guy you've always been.  Oh well...at least he hits some home runs and steals bases. 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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lol yeah you called it on Gomez, the borderline star talk early in the season turned out to be premature.

 

btw Rubin had a blog recently where he polled nine scouts comparing Duda and Ike...I don't think CR'll like the result lol

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/78352/scouts-split-on-davis-or-duda-in-2014

 

Personally if I was forced to take one next year (and we probably will be) I'd rather have Ike than Duda - higher upside, better fielder.  I'd rather not have either if I could help it though :P

Edited by NJDevs4978

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Oof, I couldn't disagree more on Carlos Gomez, the baseball player. 

 

Carlos Gomez, 2012-2013: 117 wRC+, 10.2 fWAR (ranks 12th among qualified position players).

 

I'm sorry, but this is clearly MORE than just a hot start to 2013. Gomez has been worse since that hot start, but so what? His first half wRC+ was nearing 140, it would've been ridiculous if he remained at that kind of level. His 2nd half has predictably regressed but still been fine (.254/.327/.444, 113 wRC+). For a CF with his baserunning and defensive abilities, which rank among the best in baseball, that kind of offense is enough to make him a special player (see the comparable 2012-2013 wRC+ of 117 that, along with his baserunning and defense, ranked him among the game's best players).

 

As for the actual incident: there's no doubt he was in the wrong. He was pissed from getting hit by Maholm earlier in the year but there's just no reason to do what he did. Hit the homer, maybe give it a look longer than usual, and then jog around the bases with your head down. No need stare Maholm down and jaw with every Brave on the way home while really loafing it. McCann is still a dick for instigating the benches clearing brawl, though.

Edited by nmigliore

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For what it's worth, it's not the first time McCann's been involved in something like that either.  He had words for Jose Fernandez after he basically stood at home plate for two seconds admiring a HR.  After the Braves had pounded him early in the game and whooped it up.

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For what it's worth, it's not the first time McCann's been involved in something like that either.  He had words for Jose Fernandez after he basically stood at home plate for two seconds admiring a HR.  After the Braves had pounded him early in the game and whooped it up.

 

Yep I remember that. Same issue as it was last night: shame on Fernandez for loafing it and shame on McCann (and also Chris Johnson) for their bullsh&#33;t too.

 

Mets trailing 4-0 early. This is a big series for them to lose as they currently sit with an unprotected pick. They are a full game behind the #9 and #10 spots (occupied by the Jays and Phillies) with 4 to play. Toronto faces the Orioles tonight and then 3 against the Rays over the weekend. Phillies face the Braves for 4 starting tonight. Not going to be easy.

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Hellweg hits Wright in the head, who leaves the game. Of fvcking course. At least he didn't look nearly as shaken as when he was hit by Cain in 2009. 

 

Then he hits Duda on the next pitch.

 

The Brewers should be fined for letting this loser even pitch in a game. His control is so bad.

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lol yeah you called it on Gomez, the borderline star talk early in the season turned out to be premature.

 

btw Rubin had a blog recently where he polled nine scouts comparing Duda and Ike...I don't think CR'll like the result lol

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/78352/scouts-split-on-davis-or-duda-in-2014

 

Personally if I was forced to take one next year (and we probably will be) I'd rather have Ike than Duda - higher upside, better fielder.  I'd rather not have either if I could help it though :P

 

Yikes, lol.  Can't help but wonder if these scouts are actually watching.  Doofus is now down to .224.  Like I've said, Doofus was handed an absolutely golden opportunity here...if he went on a rampage, I'd still be very skeptical, but I could at least understand it if such a rampage led Sandy to say, "OK, let's see what if he can put together a decent full season in the majors, FINALLY."  But he has done damned near NOTHING. 

 

I'm going with Ike because I think he's showed signs that he could actually become a pretty good second-place hitter...IF his newfound ability to draw walks is for real (and I admit that that's a massive "IF"), and because he's better defensively.  Of course, if he stays, I doubt that the Mets will bat him second...probably somewhere from fourth to sixth of course, so I should really be trying to ascertain his worth to the Mets based on that.  But I can't make a case for Doofus over Davis.   

 

It's the old "would you rather have syphilis or gonorrea?" argument...can't say either one exactly excites me.

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D'Arnaud up to .200 now.  Good for him.  9-for-his-last-26 (.346).  Also drawn 5 walks in that time.  It's not mind-blowing stuff, but it's nice to take with him into the offseason. 

 

Re:  Gomez, I can't get that excited about his 2012-13 seasons.  Yes, he's done some good things...nice when your CF can hit some dingers, and is a good baserunner who can steal some bases (though it's not like he steals a ton of them).  But here's his body of work over those two years:

 

281 GP, 940 AB, 150 RS, 255 H, 46 2B, 14 3B, 42 HR, 122 RBI, 55 BB, 242 K, .271 BA, 74-for-87 in stolen base attempts.

 

.305 OB% in 2012, .333 OB% in 2013. 

 

And this entire stretch is buoyed by those three months to start off 2013 that he probably won't ever have again, which means, at best, he's probably back to being a .260ish avg/.310ish OB% guy, who strikes out a lot, and for a guy with speed, doesn't hit many doubles.  I just don't see anything here that screams greatness.   

 

Re:  the incident...not saying McCann was right, but Gomez's actions pretty much ensured that someone was going to confront him...he was being as obnoxious and as big a dick as possible.  If I'm the Braves, I would've just said, "Yeah, whatever, enjoy the offseason, maybe one of these days you'll get back to the playoffs" or something like that, then ignored him.  The Braves have too much at stake to allow themselves to get drawn into a brawl. 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Just for the hell of it, Earl Weaver from September 1980...back at the Orioles' old Memorial Stadium...wish Terry was like this more often, lol.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rpS-XFXxJvE

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