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nmigliore

Official 2013 New York Mets Thread

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I'm trying to remain in wait-and-see mode. 

 

As much as I rag on Sandy (and like I've said, I think it's becoming a passion issue...and I think one could even argue that some of the reasons for his lack of passion are probably justified), it's really a two-headed monster...the Wilpons are becoming the Coupons yet again.  Of course, it's been proven you don't have to spend boatloads of cash to succeed, but it does mean the farm has to start churning out a consistent pipeline of players ready to contribute.  Looks like the Mets have the pitching part of that covered.  It's the positions that seem like they're going to be a problem (at least for the next couple of years...hopefully d'Arnaud develops quickly, and Lagares can hit and get on base more). 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Per Dan Szymborski, ZiPS sees Young as a 2 to 2.5 win player regardless of whether it's CF or a corner. This makes me a little easier on the idea of him playing LF.

 

ZiPS projects Chris Young with the Mets as 232/312/418, 104 OPS+, +5 DR in CF, 2.6 WAR.

 

In LF or RF, ZiPS still has Young a contributor, worth +10 on D and 2.3 WAR.

 

And he remains a solid defensive player. While I don't advocate lousy teams paying retail, this is too good a deal to worry about.

Edited by nmigliore

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That's fine nmig, we'll see if those projections come to fruition, but these aren't the kinds of deals that Met fans are hoping for (and I think Met fans are actually being pretty reasonable...I don't think anyone is expected big-time contracts here).

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Dave Cameron thinks this will be one of the best bargains of the offseason: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mets-land-bargain-in-chris-young/

 

Because the Mets already have Juan Lagares, there’s a good chance that Young will spend a decent amount of time in a corner outfield spot. Traditionally, the thought has been that you want bats in the corners and defense up the middle, but that false dichotomy is falling away as teams realize that defense matters at all positions, and you can still extract value from a good glove player in a corner. While Young’s bat doesn’t stack up as well compared to LF/RF types, his defensive abilities don’t disappear when he’s not playing center field, and the diminishing returns of playing multiple center fielders side by side are overstated.

 

Steamer projects Young for +1.7 WAR over just 434 plate appearances, so the forecasting system actually believes Young is a slightly above average big league player. Because of his platoon splits, you can’t extrapolate his entire value over 434 PA out to 600 PA, but there’s nothing wrong with giving Chris Young a regular job and letting him play most days. And for $7 million, getting a roughly average regular OF is a nifty little bargain indeed.

Last year, Cody Ross – same basic overall skillset, though with less defensive chops — got $26 million over three years. Ryan Ludwick, another average hitting RHB without as much defensive value, got $15 million over two years. Even Jonny Gomes, strictly a lefty masher who should probably DH, got $10 million over two years. For the Mets to land Young with only a single year commitment, even though he projects to be better than guys who got more money for more years, makes this a pretty great little deal. If Young has a big bounce back season, they can either flip him for prospects at the deadline or potentially extend a qualifying offer next winter, and maybe reap a draft pick as reward for their faith in his skills.

 

Young isn’t a sexy addition, but this is the kind of solid low cost move that smart teams are making these days. If you just focus on what Young can’t do, you’ll ignore the fact that what he can do has value, and $7 million for what he brings to the table is one of the off-season’s better bargains.

 

Edited by nmigliore

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It's a fair analysis.  Guess we might as well focus on the positives of it.  Just hope more is coming.

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CR, no doubt this isn't a sexy move fans are looking for. I will 100% feel we did a bad job if Young is our "top" outfield import. He was a nifty signing, probably better than I initially thought as a corner outfielder, but there is plenty of work to do. We still need at least one more outfielder, hopefully someone more legitimate; I just hope it's not Nelson Cruz.

Edited by nmigliore

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I haven't heard anything about Curtis Granderson coming to the Mets lately...but after taking a close look at 2012 and 2013, that's one move that I could see blowing up...maybe not as bad as Jason Bay, but bad enough.  Take him out of Yankee Bandbox and put him in CitiField, and he becomes a guy who hits 20-25 HR, strikes out an absurd amount, and doesn't hit for as many extra bases as one would think (though his 2B and 3B hits would go up in Citi).  He's also about to reach his mid-30s and his BA (never his strong suit) have been dropping as well (.232 in 2012, .229 in 2013).

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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CR, yeah, I think you posted nearly the exact same bit a couple months ago when I mentioned Granderson. I'm not very high on him either, but I'll take him on a 3 year deal over Nelson Cruz. He's (Cruz) been roughly as valuable as Drew Stubbs and Emilio Bonifacio since 2011 by fWAR. He stinks defensively, frequently misses time, he's a very power-dependent hitter leaving one of the friendliest ballparks in baseball, has the PED overhang, will be 34 next July, and requires draft pick compensation. I would've taken him on a 1 year deal but want NOTHING to do with him for multiple years. Way too many red flags there and power is still overrated on the market.

 

I still hope we go to the trade route; I know I keep beating this to death, but an Ike-for-Joyce swap makes sense for both sides and Joyce likely cost the same as Ike in arbitration, allowing us to add elsewhere (SS, 1B, pitching) instead of paying $10M+ for another outfielder and THEN trying to address other holes. I'd also be happy to take back Norichika Aoki for Ike. He isn't very sexy but is a solid-average regular (career 109 wRC+, 4.2 WAR in 1262 PA, projected for  110 wRC and ~2 WAR in 2014 by Steamer) and costs next to nothing salary-wise (just under $2M).

Edited by nmigliore

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Granderson hit .232 and struck out 195 times in 2012 (160 games) and is hitting .234 this year...only 29 doubles since the start of 2012 (215 GP).  He does draw some walks, but the guy strikes out a ton.  He'll also be 33 by the time the 2014 season starts.  He has hit a whole lot of home runs as a Yankee, but I have a feeling he's not doing that again.  He has potential disaster written all over him...I could see him putting on the Met uniform, missing 40+ games due to injury, then hitting in the .220s and striking out a whole bunch...while hitting 15-20 home runs.  No thanks to that.   

 

Yeah, you're right nmig, I totally forgot about this post. 

 

At any rate, I'm guessing this one died out...I haven't heard a thing about him with regards to the Mets lately.

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Peralta reportedly close to signing with St. Louis. I was initially disappointed because I liked him as a target but Jon Heyman just heard 4/52 "isn't even in the game" for what he is going to get, jeez. Totally fine with us not touching that.

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Can't kill Sandy for passing on Peralta for that kind of coin.  But the Mets can't try to sell us on Quintanilla and/or Tejada...just like they can't try to sell us on Doofus...and I'm thinking more and more that this team is coming back more or less similar to last year's.

 

I think the company line will be that a number of young arms are going to get extended looks, either based on merit (Syndergaard, Montero) or opportunity, as arms inevitably find their way onto the DL (deGrom).

 

Basically, I think we're going to hear how 2014 is going to be another building block year to 2015, where THEN the Mets will start making the kinds of moves we were hoping they'd start to make this year.  For now, I think it's going to be more Chris Young-type moves...hidden-value, very non-sexy deals. 

 

I can't say this thrills me, and I really wish the Wilpons and Sandy would stop at even hinting that they're talking the talk when they have little intention of walking the walk, and all of this has the feel of ready-made excuses as to why Passive can never seem to get anything much of significance done.  But can I really rightly get on him for not spending roughly $100 million or more to bring in a duo of Peralta and Granderson?  Would I feel like those are slam-dunk moves?  Probably not.

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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So here's the big question...who are some of the middle-to-lower tier guys you think Sandy's going to target? 

 

One guy who sadly is probably going to find his way back into the everyday leadoff spot will be Eric Young, which is almost inexcusable, but one hot month seems to have Sandy and everyone else on the Mets fooled.  When he's got on OB% right around .300 through mid-May, I hope Sandy isn't surprised...no one else will be. 

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Where is Eric Young going to play though? I'm pretty sure the Mets will add another outfielder, even if the Mets want to keep playing cheap. They would have to trade Murphy to fit Young in the everyday lineup, otherwise he looks headed for a utility role where he belongs.

Edited by nmigliore

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Where is Eric Young going to play though? I'm pretty sure the Mets will add another outfielder (and if not, well, Sandy is awful). They would have to trade Murphy to fit Young in the everyday lineup, otherwise he looks headed for a utility role where he belongs.

 

They think he's an everyday leadoff hitter (at least they do right now).  What do you think the everyday outfield will be?

 

I'm thinking it will be Lagares in CF, maybe Chris Young and someone else in right, and Eric Young in left.  As of right now, barring a move, and the fact that the Mets think they have a guy who has a leadoff skillset (even though he doesn't) means he's probably going to play. 

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Regarding the free agent mid-tier types, probably these names:

 

OF: Cruz, Granderson, McLouth.

 

SS: Nothing. The market after Peralta and Drew is bone-dry, as in a taking a chance on Furcal actually looks like a not-awful idea compared to the free agent alternatives. 

 

1B: Hart, Loney, Lind, or just giving Ike/Duda the job again.

 

Starting Pitcher: I tend to think Haren will be the best case, otherwise some cheap filler (Capuano, Roberto Hernandez, Maholm) to hold the fort down until Montero/Syndergaard arrive.

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Regarding the free agent mid-tier types, probably these names:

 

OF: Cruz, Granderson, McLouth.

 

SS: Nothing. The market after Peralta and Drew is bone-dry, as in a taking a chance on Furcal actually looks like a not-awful idea compared to the free agent alternatives. 

 

1B: Hart, Loney, Lind, or just giving Ike/Duda the job again.

 

Starting Pitcher: I tend to think Haren will be the best case, otherwise some cheap filler (Capuano, Roberto Hernandez, Maholm) to hold the fort down until Montero/Syndergaard arrive.

 

Sounds about right, though I think Grandy's out, unless his price drops. 

 

Hopefully Tejada realizes he's likely going to get a second chance out of pure dumb luck, and makes the absolute most out of it (even if his upside is very limited). 

 

Duda can't be back here next season...that guy sucks.  I'd give Davis one last chance.

 

I would actually take a shot at Phil Hughes or Bronson Arroyo, though I get the feeling other teams will appreciate what Arroyo can bring, to the tune of more money and/or years than the Mets would be willing to cough up.

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They think he's an everyday leadoff hitter (at least they do right now).  What do you think the everyday outfield will be?

 

I'm thinking it will be Lagares in CF, maybe Chris Young and someone else in right, and Eric Young in left.  As of right now, barring a move, and the fact that the Mets think they have a guy who has a leadoff skillset (even though he doesn't) means he's probably going to play. 

 

Lagares in CF, Chris Young in a corner, another outfielder in the opposite corner. Sure, as of right now Young is probably penciled in, but it's November 24th. The money has to go somewhere and reports say the Mets aren't done shopping for outfielders after signing Young:

 

The #Mets are not done shopping, still targeting power bat in the outfield, I am told.

 

Whether it's via trade or free agency, I'll be surprised if they don't add another outfielder.

 

re: Chris Young platooning - I doubt Sandy would pay $7M+ for a short-side platoon player. Additionally, Joel Sherman reported Sandy met with Young in Houston last week and a key to the deal was regular playing time:

 

Heard Alderson personally met last week in Houston with Chris Young. Key to deal, Promised reg playing time, but maybe not in CF #Mets

 

I wouldn't rule out a Murphy trade; he's routinely involved trade rumors every offseason and he can help fill another hole, maybe. If that happens, Eric Young will almost certainly be the starting 2B (ugh). 

Edited by nmigliore

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I'm starting to wonder if the Mets are going to hang onto a lot of that money for now...like I said, let the pitchers get their feet wet at the major-league level, then spend in 2015.  Or wait until an outfielder becomes available during the 2014 season (and try to get by with Eric Young until then).   

 

Not sure what Murph's value is on the market...despite his well-documented flaws (lack of power and ability to get on base consistently, not steady at the plate with his big dips and peaks), the Mets probably need him.  Curious what the Mets have planned for Wilmer Flores.

 

Re:  Furcal...guess the Mets could do worse.  Wouldn't want him on anything more than a one-year deal.

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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We'll see. Every indication is they are going for another outfielder. Maybe it'll prove to be just bullsh!t but those rumors + the thought of Eric Young starting in the OF + having money to spend makes it seem pretty likely, to me, that we'll get someone, even if it's "only" Nate McLouth. It also doesn't have to be a pricey addition, as some of the trade candidates I've brought up don't even cost much salary wise or take up much if any future commitments. Like I've said, I'd prefer to go that route and use that "saved" money on Hart, a couple starting pitchers (I'd love Kazmir or Haren plus a cheaper filler type), and maybe a SS (though trade may be the better alternative here too). 

Edited by nmigliore

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Oh well...guess we're just going to have to be open-minded no matter what the Mets do...none of the moves are going to be thrillers, or be moves that can evaluated strictly on glamour.  Adjusting my expectations accordingly.

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Peralta officially signing with St. Louis and Dan Haren, one of my favorite starters available, signs for 1/10 with the Dodgers. Ugh.

 

I'd look into Bartolo Colon, but I don't get the feeling we'll do much searching for a starter. Sandy will probably sign some cheap rotation filler and spend whatever resources they have on hitters.

Edited by nmigliore

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He finished the season OK...but didn't Haren carry a 5+ era into September? And he wasn't all that great the year prior either. And he will be 34. Sure the contract is only 1 year, but 10 mil a pretty hefty payday.

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Haren was basically replacement level by runs allowed last year but I liked him because of his defensive-independent numbers (slightly above average xFIP in 2013 and at least one project system was very optimistic on his 2014 outlook). The difference in actual results vs process is almost certainly why he only got 1/10; well, that and the fact he loves the west coast. 

 

It's probably all moot anyway since Sandy basically admitted pitching won't be much of a priority but I'd seriously look into Colon. Age might be a major turn off to some but as evident to 2013, he's still very good (if a bit overrated) and shouldn't require anything more than a 1 or 2 year deal. I'd be comfortable giving him a similar deal to what Tim Hudson got.

 

I hate the idea of acting like our starting pitching is "fine"; it wasn't great last year (18th in FIP-based WAR, 19th in runs allowed-based WAR), and that was with an incredible season from Harvey, who won't throw a single pitch in 2014. Niese and Gee pitched much better in the 2nd half to restore my confidence in them, but Niese-Wheeler-Gee and two question marks makes me very uneasy. Montero is right on the cusp of ready and Syndergaard shouldn't be far behind but they are still just pitching prospects, and for all we know, one could be used in a trade to fill another hole on the roster. I wouldn't let either of them, or Mejia or DeGrom for that matter, get in the way of acquiring a legitimate starter a la Colon. 

Edited by nmigliore

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At this rate nmig, I'm accepting that "That 70s Show" (70-79 wins) is going to go on for one last season.  To me, that means if the Mets can't get any of these Colon, Arroyo, Hughes types on one-year deals only, then I'm probably going to take a pass.  I might be willing to go two for Arroyo.  Don't forget Mejia is in the mix too...next year might be a good "Sort out the young arms" season. 

 

Who are the key FAs of 2015?  Is that class going to be better than 2014?

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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I didn't forget Mejia, he's listed in my post, but he has serious durability concerns. For all we know the Mets might just bring him back as a reliever, and if not, he still just takes up 1 out of 2 open rotation spots. I'm not saying go out and blow 5 years on Matt Garza (easily one of the most overrated free agents on the market, I might add) or Ervin Santana, but there has been some solid arms signing short-term deals like Tim Hudson, Dan Haren, Josh Johnson, and likely Bartolo Colon and Scott Kazmir in the near future. It's the best of both worlds: you get what projects as a pretty decent pitcher and avoid committing anything beyond 2 years. No reason you couldn't give Mejia and one of those starters the two open rotation spots.

 

re: Arroyo - never been a fan, but after Jason Vargas got 4 years I'd be surprised if he didn't find a 3 year deal somewhere. 

Edited by nmigliore

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