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nmigliore

Official 2013 New York Mets Thread

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And yet the A's are the team willing to part with him, which definitely says something. 

 

Feels like this is case of sabermetric propping up, in the case of his FIP and xFIP for 2013.  Guy allowed a boatload of baserunners (1.61 WHIP)...but most alarming is that the guy can't stay on the damned field.  He misses a lot of games. 

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And yet the A's are the team willing to part with him, which definitely says something. 

 

Feels like this is case of sabermetric propping up, in the case of his FIP and xFIP for 2013.  Guy allowed a boatload of baserunners (1.61 WHIP)...but most alarming is that the guy can't stay on the damned field.  He misses a lot of games. 

 

It was only 44 innings and just 5 of his 16 appearances were starts anyway. Whatever, this doesn't have to be so complicated; he's been quite good by ERA and FIP/xFIP for his career, whichever you prefer to weigh more. He's still really young. I'd be all over him depending on the trade cost. I rather take a chance on him for $8M over settling for an innings filler with little upside at the same price. If he gets hurt again you wasted the same cost of the innings eater plus whatever you traded; if he stays healthy you have a potential front of the rotation pitcher who costs very little (relative to production) for 2015.

Edited by nmigliore

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Understand what you're saying nmig, I do, but the Mets NEED an innings guy at this point.  The top two innings guys going into 2014 that are healthy are Dillon Gee (199.0) and Jon Niese (143.0)...Wheeler has more (168.2), if you want to add his minor and major league innings together, but he'll be on an innings limit.  It'd be nice to see a guy who could at least start 33 friggin' games without going on the DL for a change.   

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Hey look, even the penny-pinching Marlins are spending! They are about to sign Jarrod Saltalamacchia for $21M or more. The Rays acquired Ryan Hanigan today and gave him $11M in extension money and also acquired Heath Bell. The A's acquired a $10M+ closer and signed a $22M starter. 

 

How can we keep up with these big markets?!

 

(This is the perfect time to remind everyone that Sandy's biggest expenditure for an external player since becoming Mets' GM was $12M to Frank Francisco). 

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nmig, repeat after me:

 

THE WILPONS HAVE NO MONEY

 

THE WILPONS HAVE NO MONEY

 

THE WILPONS HAVE NO MONEY

Trust me nmig, I am every bit as frustrated as you...every last bit.  This sucks, especially since we were flat-out lied to.  But the only way to keep your sanity is to realize the above.  And the fallout that comes with it. 

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I think everyone accepts they have no money to offer Ellsbury/McCann type contracts...but if they can't even get mid-lower level guys with a payroll that's like $60 million now then that's something else.  That's just flat not wanting to spend.  I think that's what nmig's getting at too.

 

Yeah we were lied to but we know ownership could give two ***** about the fans anyway, so why give a **** about them at this point. You do wonder how a guy like David Wright feels.  They probably lied to him even worse considering it was face-to-face and now it looks like he signed away the rest of his career to play for M. Donald Grant reincarnate.

Edited by NJDevs4978

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I think everyone accepts they have no money to offer Ellsbury/McCann type contracts...but if they can't even get mid-lower level guys with a payroll that's like $60 million now then that's something else.  That's just flat not wanting to spend.  I think that's what nmig's getting at too.

 

Yeah we were lied to but we know ownership could give two ***** about the fans anyway, so why give a **** about them at this point. You do wonder how a guy like David Wright feels.  They probably lied to him even worse considering it was face-to-face and now it looks like he signed away the rest of his career to play for M. Donald Grant reincarnate.

 

I know what nmig's getting at, and sadly, I think the situation is really that bad now.  I think they've got some money to sign Granderson (on their terms, anyway, if Granderson is willing), and a little more to try to fill some holes on the cheap, but that's all.  They're in big trouble financially, and I think it's a long-term thing, which means 2015 will probably be just as bad...at this point, I don't think the Mets are saving their chips for a better market...I just don't think they have any chips, period.  I may have my beefs with Sandy and the Wilpons, but all of them knew there was going to be serious criticism from both their fanbase and the local media if they didn't do anything this offseason...the Wilpons may be incompetent and often clueless, but they're not entirely stupid.  The only real explanation I've got for how the Mets can have an off-season this disastrous, when they knew what the fallout would be, is that they simply have almost no money to do anything about it.   

 

I'm sure David Wright is in WTF?! mode big-time...I don't see how he can't be.  He's always been a great company man, but I'm not sure how much longer he can keep that up.  

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Rubin and Rosenthal say talks are intensifying with Granderson. I remain very meh on him but if it's for like 3/40 or 4/45ish, I could live with it. 

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Granderson really wants that 4th year, I just hope the Mets don't balk at it. 4th year he would be 36 and that's not terribly old (that's what Byrd was last year). Plenty of outfielders are still productive at that age. Bite the bullet and let's add some more power to the outfield. He's always had a lightning quick bat with an uppercut swing and hey, right field at Citi is not nearly as imposing as it was when it opened in 2009. Get Granderson in the lineup and I think 25 home runs are pretty much a lock. And that's probably the low-ish end for him

Edited by '7'

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I'm not against a 4th year if it means a reduced AAV, so instead of 3/40, he gets 4/45. I think that is very fair for what he is and factoring in decline and salary inflation. 

 

Granderson is the kind of guy that will appease some fans but he's more decent than great. 

Edited by nmigliore

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Looks like all of the eggs are going into Granderson's basket.  Chris Young and Granderson are likely the outfield improvements.

 

If that's the case, here's the likely Opening Day Lineup for the 2014 Mets (with what the hopes are):

 

Lagares (improves in both OB% and batting avg)

Murphy (improves in both OB% and overall consistency)

Wright (stays healthy and doesn't let possible irrelevance and broken promises in 2014 drag him down)

Granderson (bounces back from 2013, hit 25+ HR)

Davis (shows new approach is here to stay, isn't hitting .160 by mid-June)

CYoung (pray for something approacing 2010?)

D'Arnaud (develops quickly at the plate) 

Tejada (makes something out of undeserved second chance)

 

Pretty much how it's looking, barring a trade of one of the above.  Hoping Doofus and EY don't find their way into the above mix, but there's definitely a chance that might happen. 

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One cool thing about Granderson is he's become much better at hitting lefties over the last few years:

 

RHP: .245/.343/.500, 126 wRC+
LHP: .243/.328/.512, 126 wRC+

 

That's encouraging for a team that has dealt with players who struggle against same-handed pitchers. Ike Davis, Lucas Duda, Daniel Murphy, Ruben Tejada, and even the newly signed Chris Young have all been significantly below average vs same-handed pitchers for their careers.

 

Right now my biggest concern with Granderson is how much he'll help in 2015-2016. I think he'll be fine in 2014, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if he's an average or worse regular as soon as 2015. If the team were contending in 2014, you could accept that, but that isn't happening. Could be talking about being stuck with a below average player for 2-3 years when we MIGHT actually contend.

Edited by nmigliore

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Other teams getting in on Granderson now (Red Sox among them). 

 

I won't be heartbroken if Grandy doesn't sign with the Mets...to me, it's a deal that has just as good a chance of being a disaster as it does a decent signing.  But it almost feels like the Mets are hoping another team comes in and outbids them so they can be "rescued".  If they don't feel strongly about bringing him in, then don't...I don't think most Mets fans will be all that upset if Grandy gets away...but enough with the appearances of trying to do something, just so you can say "Well, we're trying".  You know by now whether or not you think Grandy is a good fit, and the current Met state of affairs means you're probably going to have to overpay to bring him here, as the Mets are not exactly an attractive destination at the moment.  Either do it, or move on, but stop faking it. 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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The idea of giving Granderson $15M or more over 4 years is nuts. Fangraphs' Dave Cameron said he'd give Granderson 3/30 max; I'd go higher than that, but I agree with his meh viewpoint on Granderson, and I remain concerned about just how good Granderson will be in 2015-2017, when the team is more likely to contend, not 2014. For a team ready to contend as soon as this year, Granderson makes more more sense for them. I hope someone swoops him away from us, honestly. 

Edited by nmigliore

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The idea of giving Granderson $15M or more over 4 years is nuts. At that point why not just pony up 2 extra years and a little more cash for Choo? Fangraphs' Dave Cameron said he'd give Granderson 3/30 max; I'd go higher than that, but I agree with his meh viewpoint on Granderson, and I remain concerned about just how good Granderson will be in 2015-2017, when the team is more likely to contend, not 2014. For a team ready to contend as soon as this year, Granderson makes more more sense for them. I hope someone swoops him away from us, honestly. 

 

We're on the same page...anything more than 3/40 is too much, as far as I'm concerned, and I'm not even that tickled about 3/40.  I'm definitely not advocating the Mets giving him 4/60, but I AM saying that if their plan is to make Granderson a lukewarm offer that will easily get outbid because they're not that high on him in the first place, then stop wasting Granderson's, their own, and everyone's else time with this.  Do we think Granderson is worth a 4/50 to 4/60 overpayment?  No.  But if other teams are involved, especially an infinitely more attractive one like the Red Sox, then either decide that Granderson means so much to you that you're willing to overpay, or move the fvck on from him.  Right now it feels like the Mets are hemming and hawing for appearance's sake.   

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Seems like this guy could've been a nice bullpen addition, but I guess he wasn't on the Mets' radar.  In fairness to the Mets, they do have Vic Black:

 

http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/10082940/edward-mujica-agrees-terms-two-year-deal-boston-red-sox

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Royals acquired Aoki from Milwaukee...he hit a lot less doubles in 2013 than 2012, but he plays in a lot of games, hits for a decent average and gets on base at a nice clip.  Royals gave up a young reliever for him.  Seems like this guy could've been a nice fit in the Met outfield, especially one that could see EY starting or getting more playing time than he should.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/stats/_/id/32053/norichika-aoki

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I mentioned Aoki numerous times; thought the the Brewers and Mets matched up well with their need for a 1B and the Mets' need for an outfielder. I would've been fine trading for him because he's making pennies (just under $2M), which would've allowed us to use that extra money on filling the holes around the rest of the roster. Not sure Granderson will be so much better and he's going to cost $10M more (at least) and likely require a 4 year commitment. These are what the projection systems think of both players in 2014:

 

Steamer on Granderson: 603 PA, .233/.326/.442, .336 wOBA, 112 wRC+, +2.2 WAR

Steamer on Aoki: 608 PA, .289/.355/.397, .333 wOBA, 110 wRC+, +1.8 WAR

 

Oliver on Granderson: 600 PA, .237/.327/.430, .332 wOBA, 109 wRC+, +3 WAR

Oliver on Aoki: 600 PA, .286/.355/.388, .331 wOBA, 108 wRC+, +3.1 WAR

 

With that said, Aoki will be a free agent in a year, so not really the best fit.

Edited by nmigliore

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This is when it's hard not to get pissed.  Yeah, he would've been a FA, but probably an affordable one, and this is a guy who is a "makes sense" fit.  Did Sandy even kick that tire?  I've got to think there was a deal that could've been made there, and Aoki would've filled a need.

 

I know Sandy is still probably a little shell-shocked by the Mets' financial situation, but he's supposed to be a guy who can find reasonably-priced talent, even if the players aren't necessarily sexy choices (but I think most fans realize you don't have to always go for the highest-profile FAs to build a team, so they're willing to be open-minded).  It feels like he's not even trying.   

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Agreed on a possible extension. I actually just argued that same point on a Met board I post on. 

 

I mean, even if we did trade for Aoki as a pure rental player, giving up a player or two for him would be way better than handing Granderson a 4 year deal for $12M or more. Oh speaking of what Granderson is seeking:

 

Marc Carig ‏@MarcCarig2m
Heard Granderson's been seeking a 4 year deal at $16 million per year. So, it appears that Mets may be facing a $64 million question.

 

I just hope all of these rumored pricetags are wrong and Granderson's actual market is very small given the draft pick compensation attached. He certainly appeared to be a prime player to have his market crashed by being given a Qualifying Offer, which is the reason I originally liked the idea of signing him even though I'm very lukewarm on him as a player. I mean who how many suitors are going to line up and give up a 1st round pick plus the pool allotment attached to it to sign a 33 year old outfielder who played in just 61 games last year? 

 

Hoping we hear something surprising like 3/36 plus an option but I'm not getting my hopes up.

Edited by nmigliore

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Oh HELL no!  I run like hell from that (4/64 or thereabouts).  Maybe if you're a team with loads of money to spend, you can somehow afford to make a mistake like that, but that could cripple the Mets.  No way no way no way!

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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I mean, Granderson is looking for $64M probably in the same way Cano is looking for $300M or Cruz is looking for $75M. Just because a player seeks amount X doesn't mean he'll get that. But even if you bring him down to like $13M per over 4, that's still too rich for me. 3 years at $13M per or 4 at $11M per would be my max. Just have to hope his market is small due to the draft pick compensation attached. 

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I agree...you can ask, doesn't mean it will happen (and it won't in this case, though I think he will get more than what the Mets will top out at).  He comes off sounding delusional if he thinks he's worth that or anything near 4/64...especially since he costs a draft pick to boot.

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Trade value rankings (top 50 players)...this article ranks Wright 19th and Harvey 17th:

 

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/10080878/mlb-trade-value-rankings-part-2

 

Writer loves Wright's contract and the fact that he's a multi-tool player who's saber-friendly.  He likes Harvey because of his pure ability, though he laments one lost year of cheap service (2014), but feels like Harvey will be his old self in 2015.

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Juan Lagares on his way to NY to get his knee examined: http://metsblog.com/metsblog/lagares-en-route-to-ny-to-have-his-knee-looked-at/

 

Unless his bat takes a huge step forward, the only chance of Lagares being a serviceable regular is through his defense and therefore his legs. Let's hope this is nothing serious. 

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