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nmigliore

Official 2013 New York Mets Thread

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The Mets seem to be holding firm at 3 years with Granderson, which I have no problem with since no other team has really entered into serious bidding just yet. So no need to go into that 4th year unless you absolutely have to (though I think the Mets will if they have to)

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The Mets seem to be holding firm at 3 years with Granderson, which I have no problem with since no other team has really entered into serious bidding just yet. So no need to go into that 4th year unless you absolutely have to (though I think the Mets will if they have to)

 

Link?

 

Hope it's true...Mets really shouldn't be bending over too far to bring Granderson in...too much potential for it to crash and burn...let someone else give him four years...if the Mets' flexibility is going to be hampered, I don't want it to be because of a guy like Granderson (Mets don't have the ability to survive a bad contract).  But Sandy needs to start scouring the landscape for Aoki-types...the fact that he missed out on a guy like that shows me that Sandy isn't doing his homework at all. 

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Mike Puma has been saying that, CR. Says Mets are holding firm on 3 years and the offer is BELIEVED to be a little north of 3/45 with a possible vesting option that would probably push it to the 4/60 Granderson seeks:

 

With it unclear if there is another team willing to offer the free-agent outfielder three years, never mind four, the Mets were holding steady in negotiations on Thursday.

 

On the table for Granderson was a three-year contract believed to be worth just north of $45 million with possibly a vesting option for 2017. But the 32-year-old outfielder has sought a four-year guaranteed deal that would bring the total value of the package past $60 million, according to an industry source.

 

 

http://nypost.com/2013/12/06/mets-in-no-hurry-to-offer-granderson-4th-year/
 

Still not liking the way this deal is headed. 

Edited by nmigliore

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Mike Puma has been saying that, CR. Says Mets are holding firm on 3 years and the offer is BELIEVED to be a little north of 3/45 with a possible vesting option that would probably push it to the 4/60 Granderson seeks:

 

 

http://nypost.com/2013/12/06/mets-in-no-hurry-to-offer-granderson-4th-year/

 

Still not liking the way this deal is headed. 

 

No, me neither, that's too much...gotta be more cost-effective options out there than that. 

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No, me neither, that's too much...gotta be more cost-effective options out there than that. 

 

With Cano on Seattle now...would it really shock me if a panicked Yankees came and stole him from under our noses? no.

 

They're out there. Jason Kubel....Rajai Davis. We may end up kicking those tires

 

I think the Yankees may settle on Choo. Not that they're gaga on him. He's not the HR threat that Granderson is, nor can he hit lefties.

Edited by '7'

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Just broke on WFAN. Granderson a Met. 4 years...no $$$ reported yet

 

haha. As soon as Cano flew off the board the Mets panicked and gave that 4th year

 

4 years 60 mil reported

Edited by '7'

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Kubel had nice power numbers in 2012.  Davis doesn't seem to do any one thing particularly well...doesn't hit for average, doesn't draw walks, doesn't slug at all...which means Sandy probably loves him already.

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Mets do sign him for 4-60, I know nobody likes the length but it does at least make sense in that we finally have a real OF'er and a lefty power bat that isn't Ike/Duda.

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Just broke on WFAN. Granderson a Met. 4 years...no $$$ reported yet

 

haha. As soon as Cano flew off the board the Mets panicked and gave that 4th year

 

Oh man, not good, unless the average value is $11 million or so (probably not).  All we can do is hope for the best, but this was a definitely a roll-the-dice type move that could come up snake eyes.  I would've rather have seen an Aoki type, but it looked like Sandy had tunnel vision on this one, and was going boom-or-bust. 

 

4 years 60 million?!  15 per?!  Ouch.

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Just broke on WFAN. Granderson a Met. 4 years...no $$$ reported yet

haha. As soon as Cano flew off the board the Mets panicked and gave that 4th year

4 years 60 mil reported

Yeah I had the same thought vis-a-vis panicking now that the Yankees lost Cano.

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Sigh.

We'll be regretting it.

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That's exactly what this was...panic move.  No other way to put it. 


Sigh.

We'll be regretting it.

 

Couldn't agree more.  Hope Granderson surprises. 

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I'm not as down on it as you two because I'm just tired of seeing AA dreck and retreads man the outfield. But yeah it did seem as if Granderson was option A,B, and C.

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I think it's fine.  Maybe it's too much money, but there's no cap, and it's not coming out of the fans' pocket.  Is there any other big name free agent the Mets are going to be in a position to throw a ton of money over the next four years?  Highly doubtful, so it really doesn't cost the Mets that much. 

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He's still only a year removed from a 43 hr season...and 41 the year before that. Plus his injuries last year were more freakish than nagging/old player stuff...I guess we can look at that as positives

 

plus right field isn't as ridiculous as it was before with the work done at the Mo's zone. Granderson is also the perfect candidate to hit some home runs in that notch that the Phillies 2b usually hits them (I refuse to call it his corner) it's only 330 right down the line

Edited by '7'

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That's exactly what this was...panic move. No other way to put it.

Couldn't agree more. Hope Granderson surprises.

As down on Sandy as I am, I felt like he'd never panic. Not anymore.

I wish Granderson the best, but, ugh.

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I hope Granderson works outs well for you guys. I think 4/60 is actually pretty decent considering the market right now and that you guys really could use a player like him. I became a big fan of his on and off the field during his time with the Yankees. Besides being a solid player he seems like a really great person for what it's worth.

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Dan Szymborski ran some ZiPS projections on Granderson. They like his chances of aging, and the forecasted playing time is probably a bit light, so you can even bump it up a little: https://twitter.com/dszymborski/status/409012322233876480

https://twitter.com/dszymborski/status/409015722853924864

Still an overpay with +8 total WAR, but not by terribly much, and it at least it projects him to be an average or better regular for 3 of the 4 years.

Eno Sarris of Fangraphs thinks the deal is fine: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/never-mind-the-bays-mets-take-granderson/

Still not a fan of this deal but it looks a bit better when you take a couple steps back.

Edited by nmigliore

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I think it's fine.  Maybe it's too much money, but there's no cap, and it's not coming out of the fans' pocket.  Is there any other big name free agent the Mets are going to be in a position to throw a ton of money over the next four years?  Highly doubtful, so it really doesn't cost the Mets that much. 

 

There IS a pseudo-cap, as far as the Mets are concerned...not an official one from MLB of course (other than the lux tax threshold), but the Mets clearly don't have a lot of money to spend (especially for a big-market team), so every decision that involves an 8-digit per year deal needs to be made with great care, and be as close to a sure thing as possible.  I don't feel like that happened in this case, at all.  2012 and 2013 point to possible decline.  He's failed to hit .250 or get on base 33% of the time in four out of the last five seasons, and it will be a lot more noticable now that he won't be hitting 40+ home runs anymore.  He strikes out a ton, and the strikeouts have gone up at lot the last three seasons. 

 

Like nmig hints at, this is a move that is very un-Sandy-like, and not in a good way...I could obviously be wrong, but like I said, it doesn't seem like he did much hunting around, trying to find far less risky and more cost-effective options.

 

 

I'm not as down on it as you two because I'm just tired of seeing AA dreck and retreads man the outfield. But yeah it did seem as if Granderson was option A,B, and C.

 

I hear you, believe me I do, but at least those guys weren't payroll killers.  Not only might Grandy turn out to be a bust, but he could wind up being a very expensive bust at that.  $22.25 million of the 2014 payroll is being spent on two VERY iffy outfielders, and neither of them are very good on getting on base.  An outfield of Grandy, Lagares, and Young will probably get on base about 31-32% of the time, and if EY is the fourth guy, it's not going to get any better off the bench.  Murph doesn't get on base.  Tejada doesn't get on base.  The one guy who is a lock to get on base in the entire Met lineup is David Wright.  d'Arnaud and Davis are question marks in that regard until further notice.  And oh yeah, the guys the Mets are adding strike out a ton too.    

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I listened to Francesa's open for like five minutes, he intimated ownership went 'beyond' Sandy's recommendation to get the deal done. Could be PR but it wouldn't shock me either.

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I listened to Francesa's open for like five minutes, he intimated ownership went 'beyond' Sandy's recommendation to get the deal done. Could be PR but it wouldn't shock me either.

 

If this is true, I wonder when Sandy snaps.  

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That's definitely believable. Sandy just isn't the type to rush into deals like this, for better or worse.

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That's definitely believable. Sandy just isn't the type to rush into deals like this, for better or worse.

 

We'll never know it, but I would love to see what Sandy's true Plan A was.  Because I firmly believe that he had one, and the Wilpons have basically sh!t all over it from the moment he likely pitched his ideas to them.   

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I was just looking over Oliver's 2014-and-beyond forecast on Granderson. Like ZiPS, it's not super high on him, but thinks he'll age pretty decently over the life of the deal, and be worth +7.5 WAR total. ZiPS liked him a little more and had him at +7.9, though again, that was on the light side due to playing time projections that were off. So if we bump that up a bit and project Grandy to be worth something between +7.5 and +8.5 WAR total, the deal should actually be okay. Maybe a $10M-ish overpay at most, but given the current price of a win and likely inflation hitting baseball due to  TV deals, I doubt even that much. 

 

This deal still makes me uneasy, and projection systems are just that: projection systems, but I've definitely warmed up to this a bit. Hopefully we add more and don't declare the offseason over after the front office got "their guy." Still need 2 starting pitchers, a SS, and maybe a 1B.

Edited by nmigliore

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