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nmigliore

Official 2013 New York Mets Thread

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Isn't this the exact same contract given to Bay?

 

Yep, very close, but if you think every player age-30+ is going to turn into Bay, you may as well just never sign a free agent. 

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Yep, very close, but if you think every player age-30+ is going to turn into Bay, you may as well just never sign a free agent.

Oh yeah I agree just being a troll :P

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Yep, very close, but if you think every player age-30+ is going to turn into Bay, you may as well just never sign a free agent. 

 

We all know the ideal way to build a team is from within, or with undervalued talent, but yeah, sometimes you got to dip your feet in the FA pool.  Unfortunately, the Mets have had their share of bad luck with their more expensive free agents...the only one I can think of that really worked out, from a simple "put up in-his-prime-type years" standpoint, is Beltran.  Pedro Martinez didn't get it done from a pure numbers standpoint, due to him breaking down, but he was necessary in that his signing brought credibility to the Mets again, and he at least had a great attitude while he was here.  Glavine got paid for what he had been in his prime, which he was clearly past once he became a Met.  Bonilla was a disaster, but he falls under the "pay a good player like a superstar and hope he becomes one" category.  And Bay...yikes, but sh!t happens. 

 

These are only guys who came to the Mets as FAs BTW...that's why I didn't include Piazza on this list, but as far as living up to the value of his contract goes, he did about what was expected...everyone knew the years at the end would be rough, especially since he was a catcher, and they were. 

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Sweeny Murti says we met with Bartolo Colon today. Andy Martino and Adam Rubin basically shot down any chance of us signing him though due to price.

 

Here's to hoping they are wrong. Colon is my favorite free agent starter available considering the likely contract he'll get. Fangraphs Crowdsourced him to get 1/8 while MLBTR projected 1/10. I'd definitely take the over on him beating both those deals, but that's okay. He's going to be 41 years old and will probably see his ERA jump more than a full run in 2014, but he still projects to be a very solid pitcher (Steamer sees +2.8 WAR in 182 IP, Oliver sees +2.4 in 193 IP). He's been consistently good the last few years and he's pretty unique in that he relies very heavily on his sneaky-good fastball and superb command, so I wouldn't project him to suddenly fall apart despite the age. Surprise me Sandy, do it!

Edited by nmigliore

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Saw an article in the Daily News that the Mets have decided that Doofus...yes, Lucas fvcking Doofus, who has continually failed to do ANYTHING despite being given numerous chances to distinguish himself...is getting the nod at first base, and that Sandy will try to trade Ike Davis ASAP.  The article also states that the Mets feel Doof will relax if he's assured that he'll be the Mets' everyday first baseman.  By all means, reward the guy who's done nothing to win the job.   

 

I know that Davis has been infuriating, so it's not like he's a slam-dunk option at first either, but to me he's the simply guy with more upside and intrigue.  And he can field his position better. 

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I really don't care which one they trade, these are their career numbers:

 

Davis: .242/.334/.434, .334 wOBA, 112 wRC+

Duda: .246/.342/.424, .336 wOBA, 115 wRC+

 

They have been nearly identical hitters. Maybe you can argue the upside card with Ike, but that's also the reason why he'd probably bring back a bit more in a trade in addition to saving a couple million via arbitration. Ike also had the much worse recent season (90 wRC+ for Ike, 120 wRC+ for Duda).

 

Unfortunately this whole situation probably won't work out very well. Neither player will bring back much in a trade for one, as fans are delusional thinking they have much trade value. I also don't like the idea of either starting at 1B for us yet that seems like a foregone conclusion at this point (whichever one isn't traded). I'd be shocked if they dealt both or traded one and sent the other to AAA to play an external 1B.

Edited by nmigliore

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I agree, neither is bringing back anything significant...both are relatively young, but neither has much of a resume.  Yeah, I think Davis has more trade value, but nothing terribly significant.  

 

I just hate what the idea of Doofus symbolizes...that's two guys who are going to be in the Met infield that don't deserve to be there, but are getting yet another chance...at least Davis showed a new approach at the plate.  And the ironic thing is Murph, who clearly has some serious shortcomings, but at least gives an honest effort just about every game, might be the one who's dealt (if the rumors are true), while Doofus and Tejada get to stick around...and if Murph is dealt so no-hit EY can play second...god-DAMN am I gonna be PISSED...        

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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and if Murph is dealt so no-hit EY can play second...god-DAMN am I gonna be PISSED...        

 

Couldn't agree more here. In theory, the idea of moving Murphy makes sense. He's coming off a career year (career highs in plate appearances, homers, stolen bases, and fWAR); he's more of an average player than a good one; you could put his money towards an upgrade at 2B (like Omar Infante) or elsewhere on the roster. Yet, we nearly-100% know Eric Young Jr. would be the replacement. At that point, why bother? Murphy has trade value, but no SO much as to where whatever you get back will be enough to justify the downgrade with Eric Young. 

 

The Pirates, Brewers, Blue Jays and Rays are all “possibilities” to land Marlins 1B Logan Morrison (Heyman).

 

Not that I'm expecting much for Ike or Duda, but it'll be funny if the Marlins scoop our market and trade Logan Morrison first. I mean, they've probably been looking to deal him for like the past couple days after signing Garrett Jones; we've been trying at least all of this offseason. 

Edited by nmigliore

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Yeah, Murph's value is probably as high as it's ever going to be right now, though if we notice his shortcomings, other GMs will notice them too.  I still maintain he could be a fine #9 hitter on an good AL team, where that position is often important in the lineup...he doesn't draw walks, as everyone knows, but he usually puts in good at-bats.  Just not sure how much an AL GM would be willing to give up.

 

Check out this potential infield, including the catcher:

 

1B:  Doofus

2B:  EY

SS:  Tejada

3B:  Wright

C:  d'Arnaud

 

That's pretty frightening...there's exactly one guy there you can count on for good numbers.  Doof hits some dingers and draws some walks, but who expects much from him?  Tejada is coming off a 10-steps-back, completely lost season, EY sucks, and d'Arnaud will likely need time.  I'm hoping Sandy might add another name to the mix, but I'm not getting my hopes up. 

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http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/79979/mets-have-competition-in-1b-trade

 

Have a funny feeling Sandy will get left out on this one, because, well, that's just what seems to happen to the Mets.  The ironic thing is it might not be the worst thing in the world (though far from ideal)...neither player is in much of a position to demand anything, so you could let them duke it out for the first base job.  I know a lot of the problem is that Ike will be making just under $4 million after arbitration, and the Mets are looking to penny-pinch wherever possible...the last thing they want is Ike struggling to hit .180 again and getting paid that kind of money to do it...it's a big gamble to think Ike will win the job and keep it.

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I just can't imagine how the Mets keep both. Duda is also arb-eligible and will make around $2M, so you could be looking at about $5-6M for those two combined. Neither player fits as a bench player, so one would presumably go to AAA. I doubt the Mets, with a limited budget as is, want to be paying either of these guys a few million to go to Las Vegas. Sandy also couldn't have been more blatant about moving one of them (quotes from last night):

 

"I don't know exactly what's going to happen," Alderson said. "It takes two teams to make a trade. I won't tell you what our intentions are, but hopefully it'll resolve itself shortly.

...

"We have two. We only need one," the GM said Sunday night. "... If, for some reason, we come out of these meetings with both, we'll adjust accordingly and move on. There is an 'after-market' following the winter meetings. It's not like this is the final bazaar."

 

 

So even if not this week, it certainly seems at some point one of them gets moved. 

Edited by nmigliore

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I just can't imagine how the Mets keep both. Duda is also arb-eligible and will make around $2M, so you could be looking at about $5-6M for those two combined. Neither player fits as a bench player, so one would presumably go to AAA. I doubt the Mets, with a limited budget as is, want to be paying either of these guys a few million to go to Las Vegas. Sandy also couldn't have been more blatant about moving one of them (quotes from last night):

 

 

So even if not this week, it certainly seems at some point one of them gets moved. 

 

I know they can't rightly go this route...just hate that Duda is very likely going to be the Mets' Opening Day first baseman. That's going to be one of the main travesties of this offseason. 

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I don't like the idea of Duda starting either. I think the biggest travesty of the offseason would be signing Granderson to that deal and then selling him as their "big get" while skimping out on the rest of the roster (unfortunately I think we're headed this way based on the way Sandy is pumping up Tejada, talking about having enough 1B in-house, being against going multiple years on any starting pitchers, etc.).

Edited by nmigliore

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I don't like the idea of Duda starting either. I think the biggest travesty of the offseason would be signing Granderson to that deal and then selling him as their "big get" while skimping out on the rest of the roster (unfortunately I think we're headed this way based on the way Sandy is pumping up Tejada, talking about having enough 1B in-house, being against going multiple years on any starting pitchers, etc.).

 

This is EXACTLY where they're heading.  Granderson was the "big get", and they'll pump up Chris Young.  Some filler moves coming, but nothing of significance. 

 

Duda starting at first base is bad enough, but EY starting at second is even more frightening.  I almost wish he didn't have that terrific first month...Sandy seems to be oblivious to the fact that he sucked after that.  If they dare go that route, Sandy better be getting something good back for Murph...and I have no idea how that could be possible, unless he's part of a package that would involve one or two of their pitching prospects.

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Sweeny Murti says we met with Bartolo Colon today. Andy Martino and Adam Rubin basically shot down any chance of us signing him though due to price.

 

Here's to hoping they are wrong. Colon is my favorite free agent starter available considering the likely contract he'll get. Fangraphs Crowdsourced him to get 1/8 while MLBTR projected 1/10. I'd definitely take the over on him beating both those deals, but that's okay. He's going to be 41 years old and will probably see his ERA jump more than a full run in 2014, but he still projects to be a very solid pitcher (Steamer sees +2.8 WAR in 182 IP, Oliver sees +2.4 in 193 IP). He's been consistently good the last few years and he's pretty unique in that he relies very heavily on his sneaky-good fastball and superb command, so I wouldn't project him to suddenly fall apart despite the age. Surprise me Sandy, do it!

 

In a big surprise, turns out Colon is too rich for the Mets' blood.   

 

Rumors going around they may actually consider bringing back Santana on an incentive-laden deal. 

 

What makes this aggravating is that the Mets would do this for one reason and one reason only...because Santana is cheap.  I know the Met financial state sucks, but having to think small constantly is just exhausting and disappointing, from a fan standpoint.  Maybe Santana would work out for them, maybe it wouldn't, but Sandy better not be doing victory laps if Santana somehow miraculously pays off.   

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Uh-oh, Grandy just laid the smack on the Yankees/Yankee fans during his introductory press conference lol:

 

Curtis Granderson...Mentioned salmon(!!!) Then quoted Mets fans: "True New Yorkers are Mets fans." IT IS ON

 

Granderson: "A lot of people say true New Yorkers are #Mets fans" oh, it's on #Yankees

 

Curtis Granderson with a tabloid-friendly zinger at press conference: "True New Yorkers are Mets fans." !!!

Edited by nmigliore

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He does come across as a classy and well-spoken guy...always good to have a guy like that on your team...especially if he's producing!

 

I just wonder who Wright and Granderson are going to have on the basepaths to drive in.  This team, as currently built, has OB%-disaster written all over it. 

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Supposedly, the Phillies are making Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Jonathan Papelbon available via trade.  Mets obviously won't be a factor in this, but I wonder if the Yankees make a run at Lee or Hamels.  They need starting pitching, and could sure do a hell of a lot worse.  Lee's numbers since 2008 have been terrific:

 

1333.2 IP, 1251 H, 428 ER, 197 BB (?!), 1203K, 1.09 WHIP, 2.89 ERA (this despite pitching many of these innings in that launching pad in Philly), and an 85-50 that should be much better than it is...he's had some rotten luck.

 

Hamels is almost always very solid...in four out of his last 6 seasons, he's put up ERAs of 3.09 or lower, and hasn't had an ERA over 4.00 since 2009.  He has a strong career WHIP of 1.14, rarely misses starts, and will only be 30 by the time the 2014 season rolls around.      

 

Wish the Mets were one starting pitcher away and actually didn't have a complete moron for an owner...these are two very good performers.

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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The Phillies are such a mess. It's like Amaro is so confused about whether to go all-in or sell, their roster is old, their farm system isn't that good. Reminds me a lot of the post-2008 Mets. Even though it contradicts some of their recent moves, selling might be the smarter move. The ZiPS projections on them were UGLY and Steamer thinks they are one of the worst teams in baseball as currently constructed. 

Edited by nmigliore

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Lee and Hamels should bring back some nice returns.  Lee is getting up there, but isn't showing any signs of decline.  They could roll the dice and see if they can get even more from a contender at or near the deadline, but right now both guys are healthy...they'd probably be better off dealing now. 

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Lee is owed 2 years, $50M which could turn into 3 years, $75.5M if he keeps throwing 200 innings. Hamels has a lengthy, $100M+ contract. They are great pitchers, no doubt, but not every team can afford those contracts, especially Lee's, which would limit the return. 

 

The Phillies are just in a bad place right now. Not a good team, old roster, the Howard contract amazingly looks even worse than it did before he signed it, down farm system. 

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An article about how bad the Howard deal was:

 

http://articles.philly.com/2013-11-16/sports/44117246_1_ryan-howard-darin-ruf-cole-hamels

 

Talk about a trainwreck...his numbers and health plummeted just as the extension kicked in.  Funny thing is, with his 2010-11 numbers, he probably still would've gotten big years from somebody. 

 

If the Phillies are willing to take on some of the money in Lee's and Hamels' deals, maybe they get a little more back. 

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Great article, but I think this more on the Wilpons than Sandy...that being said, Sandy and the front office isn't blameless.

 

It's going to be a long time before Met fans trust the organization again.  The Wilpons are impossible to embrace. 

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A #Mets person now would be surprised if Daniel Murphy ends up traded.

 

I hope this is true. Murphy isn't great but he's a useful regular and the Mets need more of those. Plus, we all knew this would've resulted in Eric Young starting, a serious downgrade, very unlikely to be justified by whatever Murphy brought back. 

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