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nmigliore

Official 2013 New York Mets Thread

1,815 posts in this topic

 

A #Mets person now would be surprised if Daniel Murphy ends up traded.

 

I hope this is true. Murphy isn't great but he's a useful regular and the Mets need more of those. Plus, we all knew this would've resulted in Eric Young starting, a serious downgrade, very unlikely to be justified by whatever Murphy brought back. 

 

 

That's where I am.  Want to upgrade over Murph at 2B, I can get on board with that.  But moving Murph to make room for EY would've been infuriating.  One of them hits and doesn't draw walks.  The other guy does neither. 

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Corey Hart is headed to Seattle on a 1 year deal. Was my favorite external 1B out there -- he had the same wRC+ as David Wright, Joe Mauer, and Billy Butler from 2010-2012 before missing all of 2013 with knee surgery -- but it was never happening, because we are oh so enthused with Lucas Duda! Anyway, relating to us, this should hopefully put the wheels in motion on an Ike Davis trade. Milwaukee was supposedly looking hard at Ike if Hart turned them down. 

Edited by nmigliore

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Lucas Duda...WHHHHHHHHHHHHHHYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY?!?!?!?!?!?!?!? 

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LoMo, competition for the Mets/Ike, is also going to Seattle; got traded for Carter Capps. 

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So much activity...except for the team that swore it was going to reward its fans' patience...or so it sure feels.

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Sandy might have just answered my dream!

 

Source: mets sign colon

 

that should be bartolo colon, $20M, 2 yrs. w? #mets

 

Bill Madden of the Daily News reporting the Mets and Bartolo Colon have agreed to a two-year, $20 million contract.

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So, so happy about this deal. I know people will hate the 2nd year but I don't mind it. Colon could be worth that entire $20M salary in one year, quite honestly. 

 

Since 2011: 507 IP, 3.32 ERA, 3.69 FIP, +10.5 RA9-WAR (24th best among starting pitchers), +8.9 FIP-WAR (30th best).

 

Love it. 

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Would've rather had Arroyo myself (younger and never misses starts), and Colon's age scares me, but the guy is coming off a terrific season...that cannot be argued on any level.  That second year hurts...especially for a team that can't afford to have $10 million in dead money...if Colon isn't any good next season, this one's going to look really bad.  I want to feel good about it, but it just feels like such a roll of the dice...I would've felt a lot better if the deal was only for year. 

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Colon blows away Arroyo in production the last three years whether you look at runs allowed (see RA9-WAR column) or FIP (see WAR column): http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2013&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=978,375

 

I don't have any doubt who the better pitcher is. And Arroyo, no spring chicken himself at 37, could be getting 3 years at $10M or more, which is incredibly risky itself.  

Edited by nmigliore

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Colon blows away Arroyo in production the last three years whether you look at runs allowed (see RA9-WAR column) or FIP (see WAR column): http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2013&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=978,375

 

I don't have any doubt who the better pitcher is. And Arroyo, no spring chicken himself at 37, could be getting 3 years at $10M or more, which is incredibly risky itself.  

 

I'm not saying the Mets should've signed Arroyo to three years...I would've been willing to go two on him, but it looks like that wouldn't get it done.  I'm not sure I would've gone more than one year for Colon, but I guess Sandy really wanted him. 

 

Colon also has a 50-game testosterone suspension on his record...don't think that be should be getting glossed over. 

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I'm not saying the Mets should've signed Arroyo to three years...I would've been willing to go two on him, but it looks like that wouldn't get it done.  I'm not sure I would've gone more than one year for Colon, but I guess Sandy really wanted him. 

 

Colon also has a 50-game testosterone suspension on his record...don't think that be should be getting glossed over. 

 

He served his suspension in 2012 and then went out in 2013, presumably clean, and put up the 2nd best ERA in his league. 

 

I mean, I can't see how you could do much better. Yeah he's got plenty of regression due to him and he's old. But this was still one of the top pitchers in the AL last season. The Mets get him for $10M per. Pitchers like Jason Vargas and Phil Hughes are getting $8M per. Maybe the 2nd year is a mess if everything falls apart, I'm by no means saying that isn't possible, but I think the risk is worth it considering the cost. 

 

Colon, a fastball-heavy flyball pitcher, is also a nice fit considering our park and outfield defense, which projects to be very good.

 

And the Mets are spending some money. Who'da thunk it?!

Edited by nmigliore

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I'm OK with it nmig, but there's reasons to be concerned, especially for a team that doesn't have financial flexibility.  The last thing I want to hear, come the 2014 offseason, is how Colon's contract is stopping the Mets from getting someone who can help them in 2015.  I hope it works out, I really do, and based on 2013, I can understand why Sandy rolled the dice on this one, but it has the potential to come up snake eyes. 

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And the Mets are spending some money. Who'da thunk it?!

 

Makes me wonder how much they have left.  $27.25 million towards the 2014 payroll...if that $30 million available money figure is accurate, Mets are getting close to being tapped out.

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Are you Mets fans worried about how Citi Field is gonna affect Granderson?

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Are you Mets fans worried about how Citi Field is gonna affect Granderson?

 

No one is expecting him to hit 40 HRs as Met, playing half of his games in Citi.  We'll take 20-25.  I'm more worried about his BA the last two seasons, and very high number of strikeouts. 

 

All three FA signings so far have the potential to blow up, no doubt, but the Mets had to take some chances.  At least Colon and Chris Young are short-term risks.

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Sick Colon stat:  in 19 out of his last 22 starts in 2013, he gave up 2 ER or less.  That is really friggin' great.

 

His one postseason start was OK, not great, but what he did in that 22 start stretch is almost Matt Harvey good...from a runs allowed standpoint at least.

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And the funny thing is he is the most fastball-reliant starter in baseball, not throwing 5-6 junk pitches at you. Pounds the strikezone and doesn't screw around.

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Mets are supposedly kicking the tires on John Axford and Kevin Gregg now

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Mets are supposedly kicking the tires on John Axford and Kevin Gregg now

 

Neither excites, but overall both have pretty good numbers...they're typical MLB relievers, in that the degree of their success is very year-to-year.  The Mets could do worse.  Both can strike guys out, which is nice.

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And the funny thing is he is the most fastball-reliant starter in baseball, not throwing 5-6 junk pitches at you. Pounds the strikezone and doesn't screw around.

 

Explains why gives up a little more than a hit an inning...he comes right at you.  That's OK, in that for an aggressive approach, he doesn't give up a ton of hits, and he keeps the walks down too.  Last year's WHIP was terrific. 

 

Well, we know four pitchers who are going to be in the rotation to start the season (barring injury):

 

Wheeler

Colon

Niese

Gee

 

That fifth spot is wide open...I'm assuming Syndergaard or Montero won't be candidates to nab that spot out of spring training no matter what they do (I think the Mets want both to start the season in Vegas), which means deGrom won't be either.  Based on last season, looks like the job is Mejia's to lose, as long as he's healthy and ready to go...guessing the Mets bring in a veteran cheap body (maybe Dice K again), just in case.  Does make one wonder a little bit what will happen if Syndergaard and/or Montero are pitching well in AAA and deserve call-ups...of course, as we've seen, starting pitchers get hurt, so banking on the Opening Day rotation staying healthy throughout the season seems foolish, and chances are a spot will open up somewhere. 

 

But a rotation of Wheeler, Colon, Niese, Gee and Mejia has the potential to be pretty good.  This is starting to feel like a team that crack the 80-win barrier, maybe even finish a little above .500, provided Wright, Murph, and Granderson stay healthy and hit well, and both Youngs don't suck.  Tejada and Doofus in the starting infield is still a scary thought. 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Imagine we had Harvey? Ugh.

 

I'd give Mejia the 5th spot. Yeah he might end up on the DL, but I'll take my chances on the upside/talent. Even if he does get hurt, Montero is pretty much MLB-ready, and even Torres is a fine swingman type a la Hefner if Montero can't go. That also assumes Syndergaard won't be ready.

 

I mean, I won't complain if they sign someone like Roberto Hernandez or Paul Maholm; depth is never a bad thing and you can come up with a health question mark on pretty much anyone in this current rotation. But if it were up to me, outside of signing Hernandez I suppose, I'd just run with Mejia. 

 

One move I would strongly dislike would be bringing in a Freddy Garcia, Dice-K, Aaron Harang-type to be the 5th starter. You can sell me on someone like Hernandez, Capuano, Maholm, but absolutely not someone in that former category. 

Edited by nmigliore

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Imagine we had Harvey? Ugh.

 

I'd give Mejia the 5th spot. Yeah he might end up on the DL, but I'll take my chances on the upside/talent. Even if he does get hurt, Montero is pretty much MLB-ready, and even Torres is a fine swingman type a la Hefner if Montero can't go. That also assumes Syndergaard won't be ready.

 

I mean, I won't complain if they sign someone like Roberto Hernandez or Paul Maholm; depth is never a bad thing and you can come up with a health question mark on pretty much anyone in this current rotation. But if it were up to me, outside of signing Hernandez I suppose, I'd just run with Mejia. 

 

One move I would strongly dislike would be bringing in a Freddy Garcia, Dice-K, Aaron Harang-type to be the 5th starter. You can sell me on someone like Hernandez, Capuano, Maholm, but absolutely not someone in that former category. 

 

If they had Harvey, they never go after Colon...the real shame of that is that $20 million could've gone to another need, but the Mets at least brought someone in who may be able to approximate would have Harvey would've given them in 2014. 

 

I could live with a Dice-K type only because he'd be pretty far down on the depth chart, and he'd cost next to nothing (and he actually showed something in his last few starts).  Think about it:  Mejia is hopefully going to be the guy coming out of spring.  You've got Torres, who was good in seven out of the nine starts he made.  Montero is close, Syndergaard isn't far behind, and deGrom is in the mix too (can't hurt to find out what he's got).  Yeah, there's better, more attractive alternatives to Dice-K, but hopefully you won't need the pure depth-signing guy to make any more than 10-12 starts, tops (and the only reason Dice would get that many would be because a lot of things went wrong).  A Maholm-type makes more sense if you don't have as much depth as the Mets have, and think you're going to need 20+ starts out of him. 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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CR, when I mention Dice-K et al. I'm speaking about them being given the #5 role over Mejia, not going to AAA as depth. By all means sign an arm like that to go to Las Vegas; doesn't bother me. Just want nothing to do with them pushing Mejia to the bullpen or AAA. Maybe for a pitcher like Maholm, Hernandez, or Capuano, but that's about it, and even then it's not that ideal to me.

 

Rule 5 Draft is coming up in 10 minutes. Mets have been pretty quiet under the Sandy regime with the Rule 5, but we'll see what happens. JD Martinez could be an interesting reserve RHB outfielder and there are always some intriguing arms for the bullpen. 

Edited by nmigliore

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Yep, that's what I'm thinking, re: Dice...not being brought in to compete for the #5 slot, just as a "a lot of sh!t happened and we need a cheap warm body who might be able to win a few games" precaution. 

 

I'd like to see Mejia get the job out of spring, with Montero and Syndergaard as possible competition (Mejia would really have to stumble for those two to get any consideration I would think...can't see the Mets not being committed to them both getting a bunch of starts in Vegas).  Torres can always be the #5 to start the season if Mejia looks so bad that the Mets think he needs to go to AAA as well.   

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Yeah I could see Montero posing a threat given how great he was in the PCL last season (3+ K/BB, 3.05 ERA, 2.87 FIP); he may not have a big upside, but I'm still amazed how fast he's moved up the ladder. Syndergaard, with no AAA experience, seems like a lock to go to Las Vegas, and Sandy strongly hinted that would be the case a couple nights ago. 

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