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nmigliore

Official 2013 New York Mets Thread

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PECOTA projects Rafael Montero to post the 19th best ERA in baseball, min 125 IP

 

PECOTA isn't the only stats projection system that is quite optimistic on Montero, either. ZiPS gives him a slightly above average ERA projection (3.76) and Steamer has a similar forecast (3.86). For a guy with zero MLB innings under his belt, these are pretty terrific projections.

 

Montero is going to be an interesting stats vs stuff case. Some prospect folks, like Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus and Jeff Paternostro of Amazin' Avenue, aren't enamored with the overall package due to his small stature and questionable secondaries, while others, like Keith Law, are a bit more optimistic yet still only see a league average starter type of ceiling. This is all despite Montero putting up outstanding results at every level.  

Edited by nmigliore

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Speaking of prospects, some recent top rankings came out:

 

Baseball Prospectus' Top 101, featuring three Mets (Syndergaard #11, d'Arnaud #48, Flores #71): http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22670

 

MLB.com's Top 100, which is a little more relevant now than in the past since they added Jim Callis, featuring three Mets (Syndergaard #11, d'Arnaud #22, Montero #85): http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2014/

 

Keith Law, ranking the farm systems, ranked the Mets with the 6th best farm system in baseball: http://metsminorleagueblog.com/keith-law/law-mets-have-6-farm-system-in-baseball/

 

Keith Law's Top 100 (requires ESPN Insider): http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/10361123/top-100-prospects-2014-including-byron-buxton-xander-bogaerts-more-mlb

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PECOTA also once had the Mets winning 93 games in a season where they wound up being pretty lousy (I forget which year that was).  

 

So hard to tell what you're going to get from young pitchers at the major-league level.  But if Montero pitches 125+ innings and does it to about a 4.00 ERA or so, I'd be thrilled with that.  To me, if Syndergaard and Montero both get call-ups and pitch reasonably well (or if Syndergaard is clearly ready to pitch in the majors in 2015), Wheeler continues to improve, and Harvey doesn't have any setbacks, and Niese and/or Gee pitch well enough to become trade bait, then this year was pretty successful.  Hope d'Arnaud gets though this season healthy as well.

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Can't disagree with any of that. 

 

re: PECOTA - I don't follow it much since I don't subscribe to Baseball Prospectus. I usually look to ZiPS and Steamer for projections, but again, projection systems are just projection systems and shouldn't be treated like gospel. I just saw that PECOTA bit on Twitter and thought it was interesting enough to post here.

 

Anyway, don't quote me, but I think the year you're referring to is 2009, which actually DID have some promise (maybe not 93 wins, granted) before it was ripped apart by injuries. People forget that team was actually 28-21 and only a half game out of 1st entering June. 

Edited by nmigliore

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I feel more and more like 2015 has the potential to be REALLY exciting.  We're going to find out exactly what the Wilpons really have to spend, that's for damned sure. 

 

Any idea who the prime FAs are in the next class?  Good news is they shouldn't have to go after any starting pitchers, if all goes according to plan. 

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Keith Law's Top 100 has FIVE Mets: 

 

Syndergaard at #24

d'Arnaud at #36

Dom Smith at #37

Montero at #60

Nimmo at #92

 

Smith is the shocker there, wow. Mildly surprised Nimmo made it, but Law is known to be a big fan of his. 

Edited by nmigliore

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I feel more and more like 2015 has the potential to be REALLY exciting.  We're going to find out exactly what the Wilpons really have to spend, that's for damned sure. 

 

Any idea who the prime FAs are in the next class?  Good news is they shouldn't have to go after any starting pitchers, if all goes according to plan. 

 

Here is a list of the 2015 class: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/02/2015-mlb-free-agents.html

 

A few interesting shortstops and a handful of interesting starting pitchers, but not a whole lot else.  

Edited by nmigliore

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Looks pretty weak, and we know how GMs operate in weak markets.  There's going to be some gross overpayments. 

 

Have a feeling Sandy may have to package someone we don't want to see go (Syndergaard or Montero) if he wants to make a big offseason splash.        

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Also worth pointing out that a good amount of those will likely get extended. The Dodgers missed out on Tanaka so they could throw that cash at Hanley Ramirez if they so please. The Orioles have been interested in extending JJ Hardy. I don't think the Indians will keep Asdrubal Cabrera with Lindor nearing the Majors but he's more okay than good and a much better fit at 2B or 3B as he ages, anyway. Scherzer, Bailey, Lester, Masterson are all extension candidates. 

Edited by nmigliore

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True. 

 

Drew is still out there...Sandy continues to downplay the Mets' interests, but the way things are going, the Mets might be able to get them at their price...no one seems to want Drew. 

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I'm not sure why the Mets are so terrified of giving Drew 2 years. Upgrade over Tejada...Hanley will be too rich for our blood...Asdrubel Cabrera will likely be extended before he makes it to free agency

 

He's a decent bat. He make the lineup better.

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I'm not sure why the Mets are so terrified of giving Drew 2 years. Upgrade over Tejada...Hanley will be too rich for our blood...Asdrubel Cabrera will likely be extended before he makes it to free agency

 

He's a decent bat. He make the lineup better.

 

I still think the money situation is worse than they'll ever let on (though Sandy will make sarcastic comments about it here and there), and there's still holes to fill, and Sandy is going to try to get whatever he needs on the cheap.  I think Sandy would rather get by with Tejada for a year at low cost.  But who knows...maybe Sandy has a price in mind for Drew, and if Drew simply can't find anyone to sign him, Sandy pounces.  Drew probably isn't thrilled with not being signed to this point...spring training is coming in a hurry. 

 

The idea of Tejada and Quintanilla splitting SS duty is frightening for sure.  There was a minor blurb somewhere about Sandy saying the Mets might even revisit the idea of Flores playing short again, but I doubt that happens. 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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I wouldn't count out a three year deal for Drew just yet. Boras was also the agent of Michael Bourn last year and still coaxed a 4 year deal in February when his market looked dead. Kyle Lohse, another Boras client and whose market looked even more depleted, didn't sign until late March yet still got 3 years (both required draft pick compensation, as well). Teams have also been willing to trade more years for a lower AAV this winter in deals. 

 

I'm not saying it's likely, but there's still a chance Drew finds 3/33ish. I'd do that, but I can understand some of the reservation there. If Drew was willing to accept 2 years and the Mets had the money for it, I think we would've signed him by now.

 

The biggest problem with our braintrust is that it's still unclear if ownership has money and it's even more unclear if the front office is willing to spend it. The Grandy/Young/Colon signings make it look as if the team is spending but that was mostly just replacing previous payroll, not it expanding very much. Not to mention baseball is absolutely flush with cash right now; it's completely ridiculous for a team in the biggest market to have a payroll below $100M. 

 

Anyway, more on topic, I still hope we can land Drew and Rodney despite what has publicly been stated. I'm not certainly not betting on that happening, but that could push the team closer to .500 and *perhaps* some meaningful September games (a la 2005). 

Edited by nmigliore

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Funny enough I just read this piece of news on Rubin's blog after posting the above:

 

NEW YORK -- New York Mets owner Fred Wilpon and family, who faced a massive $250 million loan against the team coming due in the next few months, have successfully arranged for it to be refinanced, according to a published report.

 

The Post reported that the refinanced loan will not come due for seven years, freeing the cash-strapped owners from an immediate, burdensome obligation that could put their ownership of the team in peril.

 

The newspaper added that interest payments will remain about the same for team owners under the new terms. They will not be required to immediately pay down any principal as part of the refinancing agreement -- avoiding the type of immediate lump-sum obligation that could trip them up.

 

The refinanced loan reportedly also does not restrict the Mets' payroll, whereas the original loan's terms capped how much the Mets could spend on players. The Mets' payroll currently is about $87 million for 2014 -- well below what is customary in a large market such as New York.

 

 

Better than bad news, I guess, but these positive financial spins do nothing for me anymore. Again, I'll believe we have more to spend AND are willing to spend it when I see it. 

 

If this suddenly unleashes the shackles, let's actually SEE it. You have a SS that is disliked from manager to front office (and isn't any good) and the bullpen is a bunch of hopes and prayers after Parnell, who faces some health questions of his own. Go get Drew and Rodney, or hell go swoop in and sign Ubaldo Jimenez or Ervin Santana to fill out the rotation, and THEN maybe I can start believing we are going in a new direction with our finances.

Edited by nmigliore

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Better than bad news, I guess, but these positive financial spins do nothing for me anymore. Again, I'll believe we have more to spend AND are willing to spend it when I see it. 

 

If this suddenly unleashes the shackles, let's actually SEE it. You have a SS that is disliked from manager to front office (and isn't any good) and the bullpen is a bunch of hopes and prayers after Parnell, who faces some health questions of his own. Go get Drew and Rodney, or hell go swoop in and sign Ubaldo Jimenez or Ervin Santana to fill out the rotation, and THEN maybe I can start believing we are going in a new direction with our finances.

 

Yeah, don't know if this really means anything.  On the surface it would seem to indicate that there's some more money available, but will any of us be surprised if Tejada or Quintanilla is the Opening Day SS?

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