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Triumph

How success kills good teams (and why S. Gionta needs benching)

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Josefson, obviously.  As someone pointed out (I think it was Vic Rattlehead) the Carter-Josefson-Bernier trio played a bit last year and did well.  I suspect that's their ultimate goal - the use of Josefson late in games suggests it, anyway.

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I dunno how people watching those games didn't see the Kings with constant possession beating the hell out of the devils and completely controlling the game. The games the Devils won, they just got lucky, the Kings still should've won those games too. Game 1 w/ the post-Devils were getting no possession and they weren't shooting when they had any whether it was due to there not being shots or them willingly not shooting for whatever reason. 

 

Rangers aren't a good possession team, they like to sit back and let teams get scoring chances-the only reason they got to the ECF was bc they played intentionally bad possession Washington and not that good Ottawa and had to do it in 7 games. The Devils were the first decent team they played. The Flyers series is the anomaly but whatever happened there I dunno. The Kings were the best possession team in the league post-Carter trade (I think, I'm sure Tri knows) and they continued it through the playoffs they weren't just a random finals team like 03 Anaheim. And if Gionta's hurting possession more than somebody in the AHL like Josefson when he wakes up, send him down no matter the narrative of him being the underdog 

 

Eh, the first two games in Jersey were relatively even games, even in their low quality, at least.   We got lucky to get back into the series, but at the same time, Fayne airmailed a virtually empty net in Game 1.

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Eh, the first two games in Jersey were relatively even games, even in their low quality, at least.   We got lucky to get back into the series, but at the same time, Fayne airmailed a virtually empty net in Game 1.

 

NJ could've won either of the first two games, but they had no business winning any of the ones they did win - those took great performances by Brodeur.

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Threads like this make me frequent this board less and less. I only read the first page and a half because my head hurt from scratching it so much. Some times I think Triumph doesn't even watch the games but merely goes to the stat sheets afterwards for his tell-all fenwick and other bs stats to make his decisions.

CBGB is a 4th line. And Zubrus coming back will finally fill up a third line that will allow CBGB to be bumped back down. But to say they're not even a good line? We would not have gone as far in the playoffs if they were not a line. They are our best 4th line in YEARS. Right now it's just a matter of not having more talented bodies to fill up the third line, mostly because of barch

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Threads like this make me frequent this board less and less. I only read the first page and a half because my head hurt from scratching it so much. Some times I think Triumph doesn't even watch the games but merely goes to the stat sheets afterwards for his tell-all fenwick and other bs stats to make his decisions.

CBGB is a 4th line. And Zubrus coming back will finally fill up a third line that will allow CBGB to be bumped back down. But to say they're not even a good line? We would not have gone as far in the playoffs if they were not a line. They are our best 4th line in YEARS. Right now it's just a matter of not having more talented bodies to fill up the third line, mostly because of barch

Well im glad im not the only one thinking that way

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If you look at his 5v5 numbers he's outplaying Zubrus.  He probably shouldn't be in the NHL either.  I don't disagree with the whole premise.  Gionta is not a good NHLer, that's true.  But, what he does have is chemistry with Carter and Bernier. 

 

As far as Triumph's opinions of what takes place on the ice I must quote Mark Twain once again "Lies, damn lies, and statistics".

 

Stats are just fluff that don't mean anything.  There is so much that is hockey that cannot be recorded on the stat sheet.  More than any other game.  You can't moneyball hockey. 

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Threads like this make me frequent this board less and less. I only read the first page and a half because my head hurt from scratching it so much. Some times I think Triumph doesn't even watch the games but merely goes to the stat sheets afterwards for his tell-all fenwick and other bs stats to make his decisions.

 

 

Believe what you want, but I've seen just about every game this year.

 

CBGB is a 4th line. And Zubrus coming back will finally fill up a third line that will allow CBGB to be bumped back down. But to say they're not even a good line? We would not have gone as far in the playoffs if they were not a line. They are our best 4th line in YEARS. Right now it's just a matter of not having more talented bodies to fill up the third line, mostly because of barch.

 

You're making my point.  I titled this 'How success kills good teams'.  That's how.  Carter-Gionta-Bernier was put together out of necessity - Josefson got hurt at the end of the season and so they needed a center and Gionta was the guy they called.  The line did extremely well together in the playoffs, beyond what anyone could have expected.  And while I'm not ready to say 'We would not have gone as far in the playoffs if they were not a line', I am going to say that without the contributions of those three players, no, the Devils don't make the Stanley Cup Finals.  And so what do you do at the beginning of the next season?   Lou brought them all back and DeBoer's played them as a third line, things that were hinted at ominously in the off-season by both men.

 

It's up for fans to be sentimental, but it's up for general managers and coaches to be brutally objective.  When general managers get sentimental, when they start thinking 'Without player X, we don't go that far, therefore we need player X', [even if his contributions were over and above what anyone could've expected]' - it's a mistake.  Gionta's continued playing is one such mistake.

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I agree mostly with your thoughts. I think Gionta can stick in the league as a 4th line guy playing 7-8 minutes, But he shouldn't be on the PK ever, and he shouldn't be matched up against any top lines. 

 

Well Gionta wasn't on the ice for any of the first ten PK goals till last Friday.  Of course he's been on the ice for the last four so now people say he can't play the PK because of a brutal special teams game yesterday.

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Well Gionta wasn't on the ice for any of the first ten PK goals till last Friday.  Of course he's been on the ice for the last four so now people say he can't play the PK because of a brutal special teams game yesterday.

 

There aren't good stats regarding the PK and they're all confounded by who starts the PK versus guys who come out when it's already underway - Gionta's had some nice short handed chances and he can make plays with his stick pressuring people along the wall.  I think he's not very good at getting his stick in lanes and he doesn't cover that much ground once the opponent's power play is set up.

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the problem with gionta is that he is a 1 skill player, with just speed. No size, marginal stick skills, and no smarts. This leads to an ability to generate a basic transition game and some scoring chances on the rush.  But right now the majority of good offensive play comes from the wingers who make the most of the dump and chase game and do all the dirty work below the goal line that makes the line go.

 

Back to gionta, his speed covers up lots of warts.  Mostly his lack of smarts, he does not play the game positionally well, but his foot speed can overcome some of it,  He chases the game rather than reading it.  Its a totally reactionary way of playing d, and is a bigger problem on the pk than 5 on 5 where it pulls him out of his lanes frequency breaking down the box. 

 

That he could not get a 1 way beyond this year is telling in two ways.  First on the lack of forward depth the Devil have this year, but it also shows a lack of faith that Gionta is a nhl solution moving forward.  Hes filling a hole for the year, and I wouldn't expect him to be around as more than an emergency call up beyond that.

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Name             GP  G  A  Pts +/-  PIM  Hits BLKS  SOG  TOI---------------------------------------------------------------Stephen Gionta   15  1  5  6    0    4   21    5    19   14:12Ryan Carter      15  2  3  5   -2   11   13    4    20   12:33Steve Bernier    15  4  0  4   -1   13   16    6    17   12:39
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Gionta is not "killing this team". Maybe he is a marginal NHL player, but you could probably make that argument about most players who are on the 4th line. Maybe Josefson would be better in his spot, He probably shouldn't be on the PK anymore and have his time trimmed down a bit. But if he is the biggest problem the Devils have right now, then I'd say we are pretty fortunate.

Edited by squishyx

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Name             GP  G  A  Pts +/-  PIM  Hits BLKS  SOG  TOI---------------------------------------------------------------Stephen Gionta   15  1  5  6    0    4   21    5    19   14:12Ryan Carter      15  2  3  5   -2   11   13    4    20   12:33Steve Bernier    15  4  0  4   -1   13   16    6    17   12:39
---

Gionta is not "killing this team". Maybe he is a marginal NHL player, but you could probably make that argument about most players who are on the 4th line. Maybe Josefson would be better in his spot, He probably shouldn't be on the PK anymore and have his time trimmed down a bit. But if he is the biggest problem the Devils have right now, then I'd say we are pretty fortunate.

 

well see. THOSE are numbers that i care about, the guy is able to score, to get assist, he's not in the minus, he's not taking stupid penalties, he's hitting and blocking shots and his stats are really similar to the other 2 guys.

 

ridiculous to sh!t on him and say he's killing the team because of a stupid shot % stats that i still cannot belief people put that much thoughts into. absolutely ridiculous.

 

of course im not saying Gionta is an incredible player or anything but he's certainly doing things right if he's there and i like what he's bringing for what he's costing us.

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well see. THOSE are numbers that i care about, the guy is able to score, to get assist, he's not in the minus, he's not taking stupid penalties, he's hitting and blocking shots and his stats are really similar to the other 2 guys.

 

ridiculous to sh!t on him and say he's killing the team because of a stupid shot % stats that i still cannot belief people put that much thoughts into. absolutely ridiculous.

 

of course im not saying Gionta is an incredible player or anything but he's certainly doing things right if he's there and i like what he's bringing for what he's costing us.

 

But as Tri has pointed out, he's had luck on his side to not be a minus.  The Devils are not likely to keep shooting 13% as a team when Gio's on the ice.  It's similar to when you see a Mike Rupp-type score, say, 5 goals in his first 8 games, and some fans will start talking about "Wow, Rupp might score 20-25 goals at this rate!"  Then you see that he's shooting over 20%.  Is he going to continue that?  Of course not.   

 

Yes, over this small sample, Gio is somehow an even player, and yes, Tri can seemingly obsess about certain numbers, but he's posting some pretty good data about why Gio's currently-respectable numbers will probably not remain that way for long. 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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But as Tri has pointed out, he's had luck on his side to not be a minus.  The Devils are not likely to keep shooting 13% as a team when Gio's on the ice.  It's similar to when you see a Mike Rupp-type score, say, 5 goals in his first 8 games, and some fans will start talking about "Wow, Rupp might score 20-25 goals at this rate!"  Then you see that he's shooting over 20%.  Is he going to continue that?  Of course not.   

 

Yes, over this small sample, Gio is somehow an even player, and yes, Tri can seemingly obsess about certain numbers, but he's posting some pretty good data about why Gio's currently-respectable numbers will probably not remain that way for long. 

 

But the problem is that generally a lot of stats-driven people tend to lump every single piece of data they cannot explain into the "luck" pile.  Often times there are just way too many variables and to just lump it together as "luck" is taking the easy way out of explaining the intangibles that sometimes a player brings.

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Name             GP  G  A  Pts +/-  PIM  Hits BLKS  SOG  TOI---------------------------------------------------------------Stephen Gionta   15  1  5  6    0    4   21    5    19   14:12Ryan Carter      15  2  3  5   -2   11   13    4    20   12:33Steve Bernier    15  4  0  4   -1   13   16    6    17   12:39
---

Gionta is not "killing this team". Maybe he is a marginal NHL player, but you could probably make that argument about most players who are on the 4th line. Maybe Josefson would be better in his spot, He probably shouldn't be on the PK anymore and have his time trimmed down a bit. But if he is the biggest problem the Devils have right now, then I'd say we are pretty fortunate.

 

76 already made my point for me, but the Devils are shooting 16% when Gionta's on the ice, and they're saving 90.4% of shots - shooting percentage + save percentage is (unfortunately) named PDO, and PDO has a strong tendency to regress to 1000.  Right now, Gionta's an incredibly high 1071, good for 46th in the league among players with 5 or more GP.  And he's still only an even player.  

 

According to a little math, Gionta's been on ice for 44 shots for and 72 shots against 5 on 5, leaving a differential of 28 shots.  Goalies give up a goal 5 on 5 per 12.5 shots, meaning were Gionta to have a PDO of 1000, he should be a -2.  Were he to have a Josefson esque PDO, he'd be -9.  So far so good, but it's really hard to go anywhere in the playoffs when you've got a line getting annihilated - in 2010, the Devils stuck with Rob Niedermayer in a similar role even though he was playing similarly bad.  There are always going to be deeper reasons why you lose in the playoffs other than 'one bad line', but we're returning to the days of the Madden-Pandolfo unit when they were being slaughtered by teams.

Edited by Triumph

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But the problem is that generally a lot of stats-driven people tend to lump every single piece of data they cannot explain into the "luck" pile.  Often times there are just way too many variables and to just lump it together as "luck" is taking the easy way out of explaining the intangibles that sometimes a player brings.

 

No arguments that the sabes-types can really be locked into their numbers and their way of looking at things.  I butt heads with them all of the time.  But admittedly, that 13% number (apparently now up to 16%) is pretty damning.  That means an .840 opposing goalie save%.  That's about as bad as it gets...are opposing goalies going to keep letting pucks in that easily when Gio's on the ice? 

 

44 SF and 72 SA at 5 on 5...in fairness, this is all stuff that points to a guy getting good fortune and bounces going his way. 

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No arguments that the sabes-types can really be locked into their numbers and their way of looking at things.  I butt heads with them all of the time.  But admittedly, that 13% number (apparently now up to 16%) is pretty damning.  That means an .840 opposing goalie save%.  That's about as bad as it gets...are opposing goalies going to keep letting pucks in that easily when Gio's on the ice? 

 

44 SF and 72 SA at 5 on 5...in fairness, this is all stuff that points to a guy getting good fortune and bounces going his way. 

 

Maybe not the best example but the first one that came to my mind that is somewhat related.

 

Aleksey Morozov always seemed to score on Marty in every game they played.  Now that might be a little bit of an exaggeration, but both even admitted it seems that way and I remember looking at a stat a long time ago that I cannot find readily now that he did indeed score an unusually high amount of goals against the Devils compared to other teams in the division.  He was also able to do this year in and year out.  Now is this just luck or maybe Morozov just had Marty's and the Devils number?  Honestly I believe the later.

 

Again not the best example but it kinda demonstrates my point.

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Maybe not the best example but the first one that came to my mind that is somewhat related.

 

Aleksey Morozov always seemed to score on Marty in every game they played.  Now that might be a little bit of an exaggeration, but both even admitted it seems that way and I remember looking at a stat a long time ago that I cannot find readily now that he did indeed score an unusually high amount of goals against the Devils compared to other teams in the division.  He was also able to do this year in and year out.  Now is this just luck or maybe Morozov just had Marty's and the Devils number?  Honestly I believe the later.

 

Again not the best example but it kinda demonstrates my point.

 

Marty actually mentioned that in his book, that Morozov had a way of scoring on him.  It definitely wasn't at a goal-per-game pace, but it was enough that everyone took notice. 

 

There will always be anomalies in every game like that...the .220 hitter who "owns" a top pitcher and hits over .400 against that particular guy, etc.  Morozov was probably just one of those weird things. 

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Marty actually mentioned that in his book, that Morozov had a way of scoring on him.  It definitely wasn't at a goal-per-game pace, but it was enough that everyone took notice. 

 

There will always be anomalies in every game like that...the .220 hitter who "owns" a top pitcher and hits over .400 against that particular guy, etc.  Morozov was probably just one of those weird things. 

 

Oh it was definitely weird but IDK I just drives me crazy when these weird things always get clumped together as "luck" by stats-driven people.

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well see. THOSE are numbers that i care about, the guy is able to score, to get assist, he's not in the minus, he's not taking stupid penalties, he's hitting and blocking shots and his stats are really similar to the other 2 guys.

 

ridiculous to sh!t on him and say he's killing the team because of a stupid shot % stats that i still cannot belief people put that much thoughts into. absolutely ridiculous.

 

of course im not saying Gionta is an incredible player or anything but he's certainly doing things right if he's there and i like what he's bringing for what he's costing us.

 

So I guess we'll just dig up this post of yours when he regresses to the mean and look at this at the end of the season. Because he's lucky as hell right now and it won't last. He'll probably have roughly the same numbers but a bigger minus.

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I always think of the "Lou screwed up letting Voros leave" idea when people want to say shooting percentage is silly compared to the raw goals numbers.

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I always think of the "Lou screwed up letting Voros leave" idea when people want to say shooting percentage is silly compared to the raw goals numbers.

 

That was SatansDevils thing more than anyone else...like I've posted before, he was the one who was the most exciteable when it came to guys like that.  Most people kind of knew Voros wasn't going to amount to a whole lot.  He didn't.   

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That was SatansDevils thing more than anyone else...like I've posted before, he was the one who was the most exciteable when it came to guys like that.  Most people kind of knew Voros wasn't going to amount to a whole lot.  He didn't.   

 

Same sort of gist though, these top line numbers matter, your voodoo numbers are stupid and you obviously don't use your eyes to see a late 20's player has just taken a big leap up in play quality.

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But as Tri has pointed out, he's had luck on his side to not be a minus.  The Devils are not likely to keep shooting 13% as a team when Gio's on the ice.  It's similar to when you see a Mike Rupp-type score, say, 5 goals in his first 8 games, and some fans will start talking about "Wow, Rupp might score 20-25 goals at this rate!"  Then you see that he's shooting over 20%.  Is he going to continue that?  Of course not.   

 

Yes, over this small sample, Gio is somehow an even player, and yes, Tri can seemingly obsess about certain numbers, but he's posting some pretty good data about why Gio's currently-respectable numbers will probably not remain that way for long. 

 

Again my point is not that Gio should be on the PK or that he's an incredible player.

 

But whats telling us that his shooting % will remain the same all season long? serious question? there's no possibility of improvement for that poor guy? 

 

I will stand by my point that it's ridiculous to put that much into shooting %. Hockey is not baseball where you can pretty much look at stats and here goes the game. It's like someone pointed out its like Tri is not even watching the game and just go through stats to make a judgement on players. 

Edited by SterioDesign

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So I guess we'll just dig up this post of yours when he regresses to the mean and look at this at the end of the season. Because he's lucky as hell right now and it won't last. He'll probably have roughly the same numbers but a bigger minus.

 

he's a $560k fourth line player who played in the AHL most of his career and who PROVED us to be helpful. I repeat PROVED us. And people are ready to sh!t on him simply cause he's lucky based on his shooting % ? Whiiiiiiiiile people are mostly in denial and making excuses and going around stats about our first round pick JJ not being the incredibly smart and elite defensively player some were saying he'd be. 

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