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Triumph

How success kills good teams (and why S. Gionta needs benching)

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Again my point is not that Gio should be on the PK or that he's an incredible player.

 

But whats telling us that his shooting % will remain the same all season long? serious question? there's no possibility of improvement for that poor guy? 

 

I will stand by my point that it's ridiculous to put that much into shooting %. Hockey is not baseball where you can pretty much look at stats and here goes the game. It's like someone pointed out its like Tri is not even watching the game and just go through stats to make a judgement on players. 

 

It's a small sample, but for his career to date, he's 5.9% for the regular season and 12% for the playoffs.  So say he shoots around 8-9% going forward (which is probably being generous, as Gio's future as an NHL regular seems cloudy, and it's not like he's known for beating goalies at any level).  So over 100 shots (and Gio doesn't exactly get much of them on net...only about one per game on average), he's good for what, maybe 8 goals (and I'm thinking 8 is high end)?  But if I'm to guess, I'm thinking 5-8 per season for Gio, IF he plays all 82 games in a typical regular season.    

 

Look, on this one, I do think Tri has made a good case that it could get really ugly for Gio.  And we really shouldn't be surprised by that...he's a 29-year-old who never really figured into the Devils' plans, but got a shot and had a little magic going for a while.  The Devils got more out of him at the NHL level than ANYONE rightly could've expected.  24 playoff games where he was actually pretty good last season?  Amazing.  And like Tri has hinted, probably the very best we'll ever see out of him as a Devil, or an NHLer for that matter.  How many more games will be play as an NHLer, 100, maybe 150 more tops?  He's up to 28 now at the age of 29, and is showing signs of not being able to compete here for that much longer. 

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So the stats are telling us Gio isn't playmaking, but rather just not taking shots?  Or is it that there is no place for playmakers in the new NHL? (just response to singling out one player, not overall point).

 

I'm very supportive of not trusting the wins column as the be all end all in telling a team how they're stacked up heading into the playoffs.  I'm not so sure that I support using a similar philosophy as criteria to re-tool an already decent 4th line.  It's a marker for an option once some other lines get a little more established and rolling consistently for certain.  But to make that move right now seems ill-timed - mostly because it's a shortened season.  Decent isn't going to cut it - I understand that - but jiggering around with things when there are better places to be focusing seems a better use of time.

 

bottom line re this whole thread:

http://youtu.be/kD-AXgYO0lo

Edited by Pepperkorn

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Again my point is not that Gio should be on the PK or that he's an incredible player.

 

But whats telling us that his shooting % will remain the same all season long? serious question? there's no possibility of improvement for that poor guy? 

 

I will stand by my point that it's ridiculous to put that much into shooting %. Hockey is not baseball where you can pretty much look at stats and here goes the game. It's like someone pointed out its like Tri is not even watching the game and just go through stats to make a judgement on players. 

 

I'm sorry but I can't make sense of this at all.  I think part of it is vocabulary-based though and I don't help because I use a lot of different terms.

 

Shooting percentage is the number of goals divided by the number of shots taken.  A goal on 10 shots is 10%, etc.

 

Shots percentage, something which isn't used by a lot of people, means the % of shots taken by a team while a given player is on the ice (or by a team overall). I think you mean shots percentage when you're saying shooting percentage, or at least that's the only way this makes sense.  Could Gionta improve his current percentage?  Yeah.  Can he get anywhere close to 50%, given that in at least the last 40 games he's around 40%?  Probably not, no.  I don't think he will stay at 37% either, but I don't think he'll get significantly better.  And when you look at shots percentage from last year, for players who played 750 ES minutes, you find one guy even close to where Gionta's at now, and that's Manny Malhotra who the Canucks were using in a purely defensive role, starting a lot in the defensive zone.  Gionta's not starting a lot in the defensive zone.

 

I see how DeBoer draws it up in his head, like a manager who bats a fast guy who has trouble getting on base in the leadoff spot.  You think okay in the 1st inning the leadoff man gets on, then he steals second, 2nd hitter bunts him over to third, and now I've got my sluggers up with a man on 3rd.  Except that that's very rare, and now as a result you're using this fast guy who doesn't hit well more often than any of your other hitters.  DeBoer thinks 'okay, these guys forecheck well, if I get them out against the opponents' top line and they forecheck them to death, I'm way up on them because I've got my top line going up against worse players of theirs'.  Which would be true, except that it doesn't happen often enough.

 

Re:  Morozov - we're asking the wrong question.  We can't know if Morozov's performance (which by the way is 12 goals against the Devils in 30 games, with 50 shots taken) is 'lucky' or not - there's no way of testing that.  The only thing there is a way of testing is whether or not we should expect an Aleksey Morozov in Brodeur's career, given that Brodeur has faced 30,000 shots and X number of shooters, what should the distribution of forwards who've had 40 or more shots against Brodeur look like?  Because there's almost certainly an Anti Morozov out there too who was totally snakebitten against Marty.  Unfortunately I don't know how to do that and it's a lot of work anyway, but you'll never prove anything looking at one case.  We'd have to see if there's a massively unequal distribution of Morozov-ites and anti Morozov-ites, and then see if that holds true for other goalies who've faced 10,000 shots.

Edited by Triumph

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No arguments that the sabes-types can really be locked into their numbers and their way of looking at things. I butt heads with them all of the time. But admittedly, that 13% number (apparently now up to 16%) is pretty damning. That means an .840 opposing goalie save%. That's about as bad as it gets...are opposing goalies going to keep letting pucks in that easily when Gio's on the ice?

44 SF and 72 SA at 5 on 5...in fairness, this is all stuff that points to a guy getting good fortune and bounces going his way.

That line has seven goals this season, two into empty nets. How much does that change the shooting percentage? That's one of the issues with using advanced numbers with a small size sample.

EDIT: Okay, one empty net goal. Even that tweaks the 16% number a little. And the defensive save percentage with them on the ice is not abnormal.

Edited by NJDevs4978

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I see how DeBoer draws it up in his head, like a manager who bats a fast guy who has trouble getting on base in the leadoff spot.  You think okay in the 1st inning the leadoff man gets on, then he steals second, 2nd hitter bunts him over to third, and now I've got my sluggers up with a man on 3rd.  Except that that's very rare, and now as a result you're using this fast guy who doesn't hit well more often than any of your other hitters.  DeBoer thinks 'okay, these guys forecheck well, if I get them out against the opponents' top line and they forecheck them to death, I'm way up on them because I've got my top line going up against worse players of theirs'.  Which would be true, except that it doesn't happen often enough.

 

I don't think hes going to stagnate with this line of thinking though.  I think he sees issues and these guys are place-holding.  I think it's necessary - I'm not happy, but I don't think you're sharing information here DeBoer hasn't seen for himself. 

 

DeBoer has never forced himself into keeping things status quo as past quality coaches for the Devils have.  Lemaire's patient coaching often leaves him holding the bag because his vision hasn't been far reaching enough - he lets himself get stuck on pet issues.  DeBoer is very far seeing and his reach is always pretty deep and wide.  Again - I understand your concern and I think you articulated it very well.  I just think its not as important as it would be were Lemaire or Lou behind the bench.  There is SOOO much going on with DeBoer.  You're an intuitive guy -- it seems to me you may have even come to see this from watching DeBoer's reactions alone then went to the stats.  It's not sitting well with DeBoer, I think you can relax.

 

anyone remember this? http://www.njdevs.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=35311&hl=gionta

Edited by Pepperkorn

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Gio brings a work effort and team dynamic that you can't quantify with silly stats.   They are a better team when he plays.

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I'm sorry but I can't make sense of this at all.  I think part of it is vocabulary-based though and I don't help because I use a lot of different terms.

 

Shooting percentage is the number of goals divided by the number of shots taken.  A goal on 10 shots is 10%, etc.

 

Shots percentage, something which isn't used by a lot of people, means the % of shots taken by a team while a given player is on the ice (or by a team overall). I think you mean shots percentage when you're saying shooting percentage, or at least that's the only way this makes sense.  Could Gionta improve his current percentage?  Yeah.  Can he get anywhere close to 50%, given that in at least the last 40 games he's around 40%?  Probably not, no.  I don't think he will stay at 37% either, but I don't think he'll get significantly better.  And when you look at shots percentage from last year, for players who played 750 ES minutes, you find one guy even close to where Gionta's at now, and that's Manny Malhotra who the Canucks were using in a purely defensive role, starting a lot in the defensive zone.  Gionta's not starting a lot in the defensive zone.

 

ok i don't mean to be rude but... It's no used by a lot a people... there's a reason for that.

 

it's like you think because not a lot of people are using them that's its some kind of underground thing or something really top notch analyzers are using and that its not open to public since it's too complicated or wtv. 

 

it's an extremely misleading stat just like +/-

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ok i don't mean to be rude but... It's no used by a lot a people... there's a reason for that.

it's like you think because not a lot of people are using them that's its some kind of underground thing or something really top notch analyzers are using and that its not open to public since it's too complicated or wtv.

it's an extremely misleading stat just like +/-

Baseball guys said the same thing about advanced baseball stats. Now it's generally agreed they work very well, after they were mocked for decades.

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Baseball guys said the same thing about advanced baseball stats. Now it's generally agreed they work very well, after they were mocked for decades.

 

there's still wayyyyyy too many variables and different context in a hockey game compared to baseball. Apples and oranges

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Not taking either side of this discussion, since I'm no fan of statistic worship and I also feel Gio gets slightly over-hyped by the fan base, but I do wonder what the advanced stats on the Crash Line would have been.

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Stephen Gionta may be "killing" the team, but I think making JJ a 4th line player isn't in the team's long term interests yet. They want to see if JJ can be more than just a defensive specialist, which is why they sent him down to Albany instead of moving him to the 4th when getting Loktionov in there.

Winning as many regular season games as possible isn't really that important for a team like the Devils, they are a playoff team baring a goaltending collapse. They should be spending the regular season figuring out who their best players are and trying to develop their young talent. Once the playoffs start put the best lineup out there (If Loktionov proves he's better than Gionta, then he's probably going in). I think DeBoer feels that way. This guy put Gionta and Harrold into his lineup last postseason without any real experience because they were simply the best players available to him.

I think the best thing for "THE DEVILS" is to have JJ in albany getting offensive minutes but the best thing for winning games is to have him on the 4th. I say this having watched 5 minutes of Devils hockey this season but that's what it sounds like to me.

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haha Gio would score after a thread like this

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there's still wayyyyyy too many variables and different context in a hockey game compared to baseball. Apples and oranges

 

Sure there's way more.  But that doesn't mean we can't learn things.  

 

Not taking either side of this discussion, since I'm no fan of statistic worship and I also feel Gio gets slightly over-hyped by the fan base, but I do wonder what the advanced stats on the Crash Line would have been.

 

Probably pretty good, Holik was no doubt a microstats monster and he and McKay could've hauled Peluso to being good in that regard.  As a Devil, Holik never had a minus year and he never played on the PK, so it's pretty easy to assume he was dominating year in and year out.  

 

Stephen Gionta may be "killing" the team, but I think making JJ a 4th line player isn't in the team's long term interests yet. They want to see if JJ can be more than just a defensive specialist, which is why they sent him down to Albany instead of moving him to the 4th when getting Loktionov in there.

Winning as many regular season games as possible isn't really that important for a team like the Devils, they are a playoff team baring a goaltending collapse. They should be spending the regular season figuring out who their best players are and trying to develop their young talent. Once the playoffs start put the best lineup out there (If Loktionov proves he's better than Gionta, then he's probably going in). I think DeBoer feels that way. This guy put Gionta and Harrold into his lineup last postseason without any real experience because they were simply the best players available to him.

I think the best thing for "THE DEVILS" is to have JJ in albany getting offensive minutes but the best thing for winning games is to have him on the 4th. I say this having watched 5 minutes of Devils hockey this season but that's what it sounds like to me.

 

This is fair now, but the trouble is that I don't think before the season you could pencil the Devils in as a playoff team, and even now, they're only a few losses away from falling out of the race.  So yeah, I don't mind the Josefson demotion for these reasons, and I think Gionta could sit if the Devils make the playoffs and if everyone's healthy, but those are two ifs, one bigger than another.  I thought Carter might be out long-term but the Devils made him available for the media so probably not - it might've ended for a brief time DeBoer's CBGB fetish.

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OK - time to put this one t bed. This thread is getting creepy.  I think the great teacher has spake enough - y'all can keep giving him a voice but it's gettin' weird ....  I'm just sayin'  His back and forth "ah this is a valid point" "perhaps it's me but I think bluhuhh bluhuhh blah.."  sounds almost LDish even  :wacko:

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For a guy "killing this team" he is tied for 5th in team scoring and is half the reason we got a point tonight.

Or we could bench him because he is bound to regress to the mean on some contrived stat or something.

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For a guy "killing this team" he is tied for 5th in team scoring and is half the reason we got a point tonight.

Or we could bench him because he is bound to regress to the mean on some contrived stat or something.

 

Yes, that crazy stat I made up called shots on goal.

 

Oh look, Gionta last in Corsi once again:

 

http://www.inlouwetrust.com/2013/2/18/4002660/new-jersey-devils-disappoint-2-1-shootout-loss-ottawa-senators

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Yes, that crazy stat I made up called shots on goal.

 

Oh look, Gionta last in Corsi once again:

 

http://www.inlouwetrust.com/2013/2/18/4002660/new-jersey-devils-disappoint-2-1-shootout-loss-ottawa-senators

So fvcking what !?!?! Did you even watch the game !?! Holy sh!t youre pissing me off with your godamn stats that means nothing.

Gionta was one of the best player who created chances with his forecheck today if youre not seeing that with ur damn stats well too bad for you.

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Sterio, did you watch the game? Gionta's line had some good shifts but had a bunch of shifts where they got absolutely smashed.

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Sterio, did you watch the game? Gionta's line had some good shifts but had a bunch of shifts where they got absolutely smashed.

Yes i watched it and you said it, HIS LINE. fvcking ridiculous to pin those shooting % on one guy theres 5 guys on the ice are you kidding me. They could have all came from the wing for all we know.

Gionta was one of the guy who created the most turnovers and i clearly remember some plays where he kept the puck in the o zone even if the dman had all the time in the world to clear or breakout and we got 2 scoring chances out of just that play.

The guy created chances and scored our only goal and some dude is trying to tell me hes sh!t cause hes last in corsi. Come on now

We seem to forget we have some horribly slow and who can barely handle the puck in our zone and they are the one supposed to get the puck out, plus we rely on the wingers to get the puck out so you really want to blame the center if were stuck in the zone?

Edited by SterioDesign

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Yes, that crazy stat I made up called shots on goal.

 

Oh look, Gionta last in Corsi once again:

 

http://www.inlouwetrust.com/2013/2/18/4002660/new-jersey-devils-disappoint-2-1-shootout-loss-ottawa-senators

Gio is 7th on the team for SOG. But you didn't mean SOG now did you? You meant some other stat that combines SOG and others to make some composite stat that you use to justify your argument. And if you had your way, we wouldn't have a point in the standings today.

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He's also the guy that screws up his line's defense most often by running around, IMO. It's probably a function of him not filling a lot of space but he spends way too much time skating behind the puck carrier doing nothing.

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Sterio, did you watch the game? Gionta's line had some good shifts but had a bunch of shifts where they got absolutely smashed.

No one is trying to argue that Gio is some underrated elite player. The premise of this whole thread is "he is killing this team" when it's obvious he is not unless you rely on arbitrary stats. His is contributing the way you would hope your marginal players would. The fact that he is on the 3rd line for the Devils is a testament to our lack of depth not his qualifications as an NHL regular.

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