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SMantzas

Has Adam Larsson really improved?

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I think most people can agree that Larsson has been solid since being inserted into the lineup. And I don't think anyone questions his upside as a top pairing dman. But it appears Larsson has been getting a bit of luck:

His on ice save percentage is .921

NJ shoots 16.67 when he's on the ice

With an overall PDO of 1087

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Well, aside from his first game where he had that perfect tip into our net, he's played pretty well and even though he's gotten better competition playing with Green, he's held his own and made some good plays. I think he's improved his defensive play for sure. I just want to see a bit more from him in on offense. I'd like to see him get 10-15 points this year. He's only got 2 in 11 games, but I'd really like him to get at least 10. I'd also like to see him get a little PP time, if only on 2nd unit.

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Forget the numbers.  Just watch the kid play.  He is so much faster and more confident than last season.  He's stronger on the puck and is playing much better positionally.  He's developing fine, luck or no luck.

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He's improved his 1 vs 1 D significantly. you can tell he's been working on the backwards crossovers to gain speed while maintaining a decent gap. he's stronger on the stepout too.  very relieved after seeing him look slow last year. using his size on the boards more, and not panicing with the puck or forcing a pass. he's holding onto in for that crucial last instant to see an outlet. imo, greene has helped a lot. sure he'll make the bonehead play, but they're way fewer of them now.  the O will come hopefully, the slapper needs work, lots of work LOL

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he had that mean pass to kovie for a goal no? he is a great playmaker, just needs a few more seasons and should be a leader of the defense.

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I think most people can agree that Larsson has been solid since being inserted into the lineup. And I don't think anyone questions his upside as a top pairing dman. But it appears Larsson has been getting a bit of luck:

His on ice save percentage is .921

NJ shoots 16.67 when he's on the ice

With an overall PDO of 1087

 

what'll happen when regression starts his +/- will fall? Who cares. We know he's got that sick passing ability and he's probably a little too much of an adventure out there sometimes but he's also only 20 years old and, I think, improved just from watching him 

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He's gone from being beat consistently to the outside to only looking like he's going to be beat to the outside and then recovering at the last moment, so hopefully next year he'll just shut those down before he's almost beat.

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I think most people can agree that Larsson has been solid since being inserted into the lineup. And I don't think anyone questions his upside as a top pairing dman. But it appears Larsson has been getting a bit of luck:

His on ice save percentage is .921

NJ shoots 16.67 when he's on the ice

With an overall PDO of 1087

 

is this serious or trolling based on the Gionta discussion? serious question

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I think most people can agree that Larsson has been solid since being inserted into the lineup. And I don't think anyone questions his upside as a top pairing dman. But it appears Larsson has been getting a bit of luck:

His on ice save percentage is .921

NJ shoots 16.67 when he's on the ice

With an overall PDO of 1087

 

Just like the debate over whether Gio should be benched, this all presents a chicken/egg dilemma.  Perhaps save percentage is high because Larsson forces opponents to take low percentage shots.  Maybe the Devils have a high shooting percentage when he's on the ice because his outlet passes or some other aspect of his play puts his teammates in a position to take high percentage shots. 

 

My take away from all this.  Better to trust your lying eyes than stats that don't really tell you much. 

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My favorite Larsson play this season was the glove keep in that led to a goal, against Philly I think? But yeah, he's been playing much better, being paired with Greene has been great for him

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Just like the debate over whether Gio should be benched, this all presents a chicken/egg dilemma. Perhaps save percentage is high because Larsson forces opponents to take low percentage shots. Maybe the Devils have a high shooting percentage when he's on the ice because his outlet passes or some other aspect of his play puts his teammates in a position to take high percentage shots.

My take away from all this. Better to trust your lying eyes than stats that don't really tell you much.

The problem with throwing away stats is that bias can really influence what you see. Larsson is a former 4th overall who is playing in the NHL at 20. We desperately want him to be a #1

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The problem with throwing away stats is that bias can really influence what you see. Larsson is a former 4th overall who is playing in the NHL at 20. We desperately want him to be a #1

 

Stats or no stats, we all know he isn't a number 1 defenseman right now.  The last player I can think of who was penciled in a number 1 defenseman at age 20 was Drew Doughty.  Tyler Myers was at the time, but now he's sometimes a healthy scratch.

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He looks alot better, but looks wimpy at times still. I think the most noticable difference comes in the fact that salvador, volchenkov and even talinder look old and slow and just plain bad.

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Stats or no stats, we all know he isn't a number 1 defenseman right now. The last player I can think of who was penciled in a number 1 defenseman at age 20 was Drew Doughty. Tyler Myers was at the time, but now he's sometimes a healthy scratch.

Of course he isn't yet, but that doesn't mean people aren't more forgiving of his weaknesses or overrate his play

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Forget the numbers.  Just watch the kid play.  He is so much faster and more confident than last season.  He's stronger on the puck and is playing much better positionally.  He's developing fine, luck or no luck.

 

 

is this serious or trolling based on the Gionta discussion? serious question

 

Yay, another thread where we can argue about the legitimacy of statistics in hockey. Because that hasn't gotten old yet.

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Mantzas did a bad job of explaining his point (if he had one).

 

Deboer is slamming him with defensive zone starts, which makes sense because he's not really an asset in the offensive zone, and he's doing just fine so far with them.  Of course he doesn't really play with Salvador which helps anyone's 'advanced stats' - he should be an even-ish player despite having a zone start of 33%.  That's real good.

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personally while i agree that he improved i still havent seen anything from him telling me that he'll be an impact player for us... what i saw is that he will be an NHL player and not a liability and be alright at the very least, still young though and it takes time but i wouldnt pencil him a shoe in impact player / franchise dman for us just yet. I simply havent seen flashes of it yet like i remember seeing flashes of Karlsson, pietrangelo, doughty, subban, etc etc younger in their careers

 

i certainly fvcking hope so that he become that guy though we need it

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don't forget Larsson's sick slapshot pass that he will soon trademark

 

unfortunately Pietrangelo just signed his patent.

 

 

i still can't believe that pass... sigh...

Edited by SterioDesign

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It's not gonna matter how many times you watch that. That's a perfect pass if there ever was one.

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personally while i agree that he improved i still havent seen anything from him telling me that he'll be an impact player for us... what i saw is that he will be an NHL player and not a liability and be alright at the very least, still young though and it takes time but i wouldnt pencil him a shoe in impact player / franchise dman for us just yet. I simply havent seen flashes of it yet like i remember seeing flashes of Karlsson, pietrangelo, doughty, subban, etc etc younger in their careers

 

i certainly fvcking hope so that he become that guy though we need it

 

You have the wrong comps here - Larsson is not like any of those guys.  Larsson is going to be a force in the D zone and at shot prevention.  Also all four of those guys are HOF talent, there's a level between that and average player which I feel pretty confident that Larsson will hit.

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You have the wrong comps here - Larsson is not like any of those guys.  Larsson is going to be a force in the D zone and at shot prevention.  Also all four of those guys are HOF talent, there's a level between that and average player which I feel pretty confident that Larsson will hit.

That's a little disappointing, or to be more precise, boring, compared to what you would have hoped to have gotten with the number four pick for a team that almost never drafts that high. Personally I think he has more offensive upside. Not like Karlsson, but in a few years he could be a ten goal forty to fifty point player. If he gets a little more confidence, he should be a power play regular in a few years.

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