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ZeroGravityFat

GDT New Jersey Devils vs. The Isles 7pm MSG+

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So our last 12 is :

 

Bos x2, Tor x2, Rags x2, Philly, Florida, Sabres, Ottawa, Pens and MTL

 

I expect to lose both to Boston, split with the Rags and Toronto, beat Philly, Florida, the Sens and Sabres, but lose to Pitt and MTL. That is 6-6 which would give us 51 points

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i'll say it again willing to get some "ah give me a fvcking break" or "let it go".

 

but again... last year Deboer and the staff put a C on a guy who they called the "heart and soul" of the team, he was also part of every part of the game that made us successful in a long run.

 

and he's gone and Lou didnt replace ANY parts of what he was bringing either production wise or intangible wise... then slapped the C on a useless dman who should get scratch on most night.

 

so don't call me out on this cause it's absolutely true and anyone denying it is simply in denial now. The stats or wtv what you want to look at will agree with it. Its not "no big deal" to lose your "heart and soul" coaches doesnt throw those names around cause it sounds cute, it was legit.

 

The Devils were 16-6 in OT/shootout games last year.  They are 3-9 this year.   Parise was a big part of that with his shootout ability, there's no doubt, but people think last year's team was this amazing club - they snuck into 6th by virtue of dominating the shootout and OT.  Had they gone 6-16, like the Devils would be on pace to do in an 82 game season, they would've been tied for 8th place with the Senators and Capitals, and certainly would've been in much more of a dogfight for the playoffs.

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It's the rare forward who maintains an 8% shooting percentage.  Zajac's shot decline would be worrisome but that is probably the effect of losing Parise off his line.  I also think it typically takes 18 months to fully recover from an Achilles injury.  I expect Zajac to be at 2 shots game, 10% shooting percentage, which over 80 games is around 16 goals.

 

I caught the low shooting% and drop in shots over that time frame.  I have him at 15-20 goals per season going forward, which if you are predicting around 16 per season going forward, then we're basically of like minds on this.  But unless the Devils find scoring elsewhere, 16 or so probably won't cut it.  I don't think the Devils signed him up long-term hoping he was going to top out at that.  Of course, in a perfect world, sometime in the next few years they may not have to count on Zajac to put pucks home at the 20-25 per season they probably would like to see. 

 

Re:  last season's team...yeah, there's been a tendency to blow them up...that being said, after that 12-12-1 start, they did go 36-16-5, and had the Cup run, which is very easy on the eyes, regardless of how the wins came.  Most of the Devils' shakier play that season happened in those first 25 games or so. 

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The Devils were 16-6 in OT/shootout games last year.  They are 3-9 this year.   Parise was a big part of that with his shootout ability, there's no doubt, but people think last year's team was this amazing club - they snuck into 6th by virtue of dominating the shootout and OT.  Had they gone 6-16, like the Devils would be on pace to do in an 82 game season, they would've been tied for 8th place with the Senators and Capitals, and certainly would've been in much more of a dogfight for the playoffs.

 

well i never said last year's team was incredible. But we had balanced line at the end and had a 30 goals scorer on each of our first 3 lines and a 4th line that we're playing really well. We had a good PK too. Simply slice a chunk of our SO wins and add a few PP goals against here and there and like you said we could have been out.

 

Lot's of people are bitching about Clarkson though lately, i feel he's playing the same exact way he always being playing. he's strong behind the net, making the same dumb plays, taking shots from anywhere while 90% of them are completely useless and have no chance of going in. He's just not getting his lucky goals now. He's not better or worst than he was.

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Poor Kostopoulos, he was the only one who gave a sh!t in those first ten minutes and he payed the price for it.

I'm with you there -- I hope he got kudos and everyone feels like an a$$hole. 

 

I dont know I just imagine this team being spacey wimpy jerkoffs in the locker room. Maybe one dude making loud whooping noises occasionally to try in a very transparent way to get everyone stoked... with the unspoken: for another losing venture, looming on the air.

 

I think that it is important actually that people acknowledge what Parise brought to the locker room.  Why?  Because a guy DOES indeed leave that stuff behind when he departs.  People learn from it. You don't take it with you - the team you left has the choice of picking up the flag and continuing the rally -- or they wuss out and whine about how they lost this or that -- it's garbage. 

 

That is why fans get mad at other fans for saying it.  The team has control - if they refuse to take it - that's not Praise's doing.  The TEAM made that vacancy.  They filled it no problem in the fast start of the season.  That's the problem with strong starts.  Guys have time to think - and they always choose to think the worst of themselves (if they're losers  <_<) At the first sign of adversity they immediately lose focus and abandon all personal responsibility -- and the coaches LET THEM WUSS OUT.  They give them permission to shed all feelings of accountability - to fail - by saying Oh you know it's ok -- all that sh&#33;t they spew to shut up the reporters and bloggers.  This team -- it almost seems like a game they play - they manipulate management by accepting the blame.  By weeping Mia culpa and fvcking up all team chemistry so management HAS to give them a bye.  It's crap - complete crap and has been going on for a decade.  This is somehow Lou's failing because he is the lone consistency in the management team.  Maybe Marty is the guy perpetuating the tactic - it IS a goalies thing, selfless finger pointing It'e all my fault - you knwo I' the goalie and I'm nto supposed to lead but we all know I shoudl be  "nononono  that's not part of your job description (insert goalie's internal self satisfied smirk - There's no smirking going on here thinks anyone reading this - MY ASS!  If there is no success then SOMEONE is not doing enough -- NO ONE is doing enough.  <_<  jackasses.

 

So annoying.  There is no such thing as an intangible - EVERYTHING dubbed an intangible can be learned.  Beginning of the season it was fresh in their brain.  Winning early always shocks the knowledge out of every jackasses head.

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The Devils were 16-6 in OT/shootout games last year.  They are 3-9 this year.   Parise was a big part of that with his shootout ability, there's no doubt, but people think last year's team was this amazing club - they snuck into 6th by virtue of dominating the shootout and OT.  Had they gone 6-16, like the Devils would be on pace to do in an 82 game season, they would've been tied for 8th place with the Senators and Capitals, and certainly would've been in much more of a dogfight for the playoffs.

 

this is an amazing point that doesn't get enough play. think about it - if the devils are 6 and 6 in OT/Shootout, that's 3 more points which shockingly changes the whole complexion of a lot of arguments.

 

what are the reasons the devils are where they are right now?

 

1) Bad Goaltending

2) Bad OT/Shoot Out Record

3) Low S%

4) Injuries

5) Poor Use of Lines (i.e. Gionta)

 

That's it guys - in that order.

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People care because the Devils used to be better than everyone in getting that extra point come shootout time, which helps to cover up ills. For the first time, they're not. Look at it this way: if the Devils are having their typical shootout success, they're 5-3 or 6-2 in shootouts this season, instead of 2-6. So instead of 15-11-9, they're 18-11-6 or 19-11-5. The record suddenly looks a whole lot better, even though it's just a silly skills competition that would make the Devils suddenly appear to be so much better than they've really been.

 

We were talking about this on another thread (the Coaching Loss one) yesterday.  This is yet another reason why I don't like shootouts.  Would the Devils really be so much better that their record would suggest if they were enjoying their usual shootout domination? 

 

sundstrom, yeah, you pretty much nailed it, though low shooting% for + low save% for is clearly going to lead to problems, for obvious reasons.  Kind of hard for a team of questionable talent to have to outshoot its opponent by a good margin every night to have a chance to win.   

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Why are those so poor?

 

What can be done to fix it?

 

It's really easy to point out the facts.  They're facts.

 

What's to be done about it?  THAT is what people are asking -- are ALWAYS asking.  Not for the board to identify the second articulation of the problem  -- not an explanation as to how things add up but the WHY?????

 

 

THAT IS THE STATS ARGUMENT.  THERE IS NEVER A SOLUTION -- ONLY NEW EMPIRICAL DATA. EVEN WITH ALL THIS DATA IT ALL BOILS DOWN TO THE HYPOTHETICAL PRIOR TO TAKING ACTION. YOU CANNOT CHANGE THAT.  THERE IS NO SET SOLUTION AND NO AMOUNT OF REPHRASING THE PROBLEM WILL GET YOU TO PRACTICAL OR PRAGMATIC. 

 

Fixing a problem involves CONFLICT.  DEAL WITH IT.  GIVE ME A SOLUTION!!!! It's like refusing to plan an experiment - just constantly coming up new ways to look at the data and never a way to use it.  it's like you do that in purpose so you're never categorically wrong. It's a straw man in and of itself. Drives me nucking FUTS  :argh:

 

just articulating what is going on internally between the two factions in the moment so no one is surprised by an outburst.  So you understand where these outburst on the board come from. 

 

sorry to take the gas out of anyone epiphany -- but when some one write "No sh&#33;t" - it means what it means, not that they didn't take time to fully comprehend your cathartic moment, you know? 

Edited by Pepperkorn

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I actually understood what you were going for there for PK.  The problem is we're not GMs, though some fans think they could do the job.  Enough of us watch the game that we can interpret and analyze and debate and discuss what we see, and try to make sense of it, through what our eyes tell us and, yes, through various stats.  And as we've seen multiple times, the facts aren't always 100% clear...there's debates on the "facts".

 

The problem with the "GIVE ME A SOLUTION!!!!!" request is that, from a fan standpoint, it's almost pointless.  Too many fans' solutions consist of trade proposals that have no chance of ever happening, or are clearly an attempt to fleece another team.  Yankee fans call into the WFAN to do that all of the time...give us your superstar for four or five guys we'll barely miss.  And other solutions are usually very obvious from a fan standpoint:  Devils need a scorer.  OK.  Which one?  For what?  Easy to point out, but much harder to actually solve the problem, especially since, as we all know, so much more goes into these decisions/solutions than simply filling a roster need.  And let's face it, sometimes the solutions (at the least the quick-fix ones) aren't always there or readily available.  I don't know what Lou can really do right now, except hope that Marty has another hot streak in him, and that some of his scorers start shooting at a higher percentage (especially the ones capable of doing so).  I don't see that move out there that's going to make much of a difference in 2013, especially with Kovy not playing. 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Re:  last season's team...yeah, there's been a tendency to blow them up...that being said, after that 12-12-1 start, they did go 36-16-5, and had the Cup run, which is very easy on the eyes, regardless of how the wins came.  Most of the Devils' shakier play that season happened in those first 25 games or so.

 

The 12-12-1 start could have been a lot worse, because they were 6-1 in OT games played in that span.  Flip that around and the team is 6-12-7, which looks an awful lot worse, and would have people talking about Lemaire coming back.

 

It's a team built to play OT games, and right now the goaltending isn't getting us there. 

 

Edit:  A scorer doesn't fix the problem, it just makes the team incrementally better.  You can get a super high scoring team and think you'll rule the world and still not score, that's just how this game is.

Edited by Triumph

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The 12-12-1 start could have been a lot worse, because they were 6-1 in OT games played in that span.  Flip that around and the team is 6-12-7, which looks an awful lot worse, and would have people talking about Lemaire coming back.

 

It's a team built to play OT games, and right now the goaltending isn't getting us there. 

 

Edit:  A scorer doesn't fix the problem, it just makes the team incrementally better.  You can get a super high scoring team and think you'll rule the world and still not score, that's just how this game is.

 

I know, I remember that 12-12-1 start being very shaky...I was pointing out the OT+SO record a lot back then.

 

Not saying a scorer would fix the problem...just saying that when fans start trying to play GM, you'd have several that would think a scorer or two would fix a lot.  I was showing an example of what some fans would say (GET A SCORER!) Still wouldn't help with the .897 save% Devils goalies have put up. 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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I

 

this is an amazing point that doesn't get enough play. think about it - if the devils are 6 and 6 in OT/Shootout, that's 3 more points which shockingly changes the whole complexion of a lot of arguments.

 

what are the reasons the devils are where they are right now?

 

1) Bad Goaltending

2) Bad OT/Shoot Out Record

3) Low S%

4) Injuries

5) Poor Use of Lines (i.e. Gionta)

 

That's it guys - in that order.

I agree with this for the most part. Add in, neither of Josefson or Tedenby filled any type of perceived hole.

 

I will say though Tri, depending on what deal might be out there - I think this team is one scoring winger away from slotting out to a deep team...Now of course, what team isn't I guess.

 

I was saying this in chat last night.

 

8-21-17

26-19-new winger

18-14-23

12-20-11-16

 

yes the goaltending still is weak, but with some more support  and the right matchups we could make a run.

Edited by HellOnICE

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Rockies - I'll say what sent me down this road - I say it all the time :evil:

 

about 11 years ago Scott Stevens quoted me nearly word for word with a locker room assessment. I knew a few silly players had gotten wind of the board and I'd bet said players taunted Scott about his insane fan.  and let's just say it immodestly - with his comments to the press, I became deluded that it was possible to add value from this distance.   Now while I know no one is listening any more -- I say it all in the off chance someone is listening one day on a lark and actually gleans a bit of insight.

 

Yeah - probably no one is listening. But they have in the past.  and now that the board is so huge and people ignore things, post redundant sh&#33;t, moving pages - page after page of garbage no one can do anything with.  Stuff that's already known -- it's not insight only we on the outside can objectively provide.  The board is too hard to use as a tool for insight - it's information over load.  But we all feel the better for it.

 

I need to be useful.  I understand it's a delusion.  I like it that way. and just in case - I'm not going to stop until I stop caring about the team.

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