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Is this the worst stretch of luck in NHL history?

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I don't know that different means better.  I'll have a longer article on this sometime, but there are two teams who've missed the playoffs getting more than 54% of the shots in all situations (PP, PK, etc.) - the 95-96 Devils team, and this one.  There are a few who've missed with 53%+ too.  You're not necessarily replacing Elias and Clarkson with guys who can score, much as one would like to think that.

 

You're defining my vision of "different" for me.  I haven't gotten that far.  I didn't say don't bring them back for sure...I'm saying that it shouldn't be an automatic.  And I agree, tearing it down doesn't always lead teams to the promised land...there are teams that start rebuilding and never seem to stop.  I know "different" is not a guarantee of anything.   

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I beleive you create your own luck, we have had way too many can't miss opportunities that we MISS!!  Winning teams ( and true scorers) donot miss those.

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I don't know that different means better. I'll have a longer article on this sometime, but there are two teams who've missed the playoffs getting more than 54% of the shots in all situations (PP, PK, etc.) - the 95-96 Devils team, and this one. There are a few who've missed with 53%+ too. You're not necessarily replacing Elias and Clarkson with guys who can score, much as one would like to think that.

Elias needs to stay because he can still give you consistent production, while playing in all situations. I want to see him off the half boards on the PP though. I'm not sure whether his shot is gone or he's being timid to shoot, but it's not working. I'd like to see Zajac and Elias switch spots. At least I know Zajac still has a good shot.

Clarkson- I'd like to see him stay but not a penny more than 4/16. The thing is, I know he'll command more being a UFA. But it is true teams will be strapped considering the cap is going down next year.

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Sterio, let it go.  As much as you seem to think you have an answer for everything, it will never be as obvious or easy as you like to believe these things are.

 

Clearly, losing Kovy was a killer...I don't know how many more games the Devils would've won had he stayed healthy, but it's kind of hard to believe that the Devils wouldn't have won at least a couple of games with him in the lineup.  This whole thing is crazy.

 

As "unlucky" as the Devils have been during this streak, there's a part of me that wouldn't mind seeing a serious reboot...the problem is that most of the guys who are here really haven't been here that long.  Some fans will say Elias needs to be re-signed no matter what, just because...but I'm not in the camp of that being an automatic.  Ditto Clarkson.  I guess my thoughts are too jumbled right now.  The only thing I can really say with any certainty is that I'm ready for something DIFFERENT...I just have to figure out what "different" means, beyond abstract yearnings.

 

dude will you get off my case? i did say that OBVIOUSLY it's not that black and white and ALL I SAID was responding to someone saying we would have been in big cap trouble if we would have signed zach and that it was not true that we would have been fvcked with his contract's cause we could always have trade him, worst comes to worst. Thats all. Read before calling me out jesus christ

Edited by SterioDesign

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If you ignore the names on the back of the Jerseys, every line playing for the Devils looks like good 4th line. They bring a lot of energy and keep, puck away from the opponent and with a bit of luck score an occasional goal.

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You know, I'm just kinda hoping that this stretch from the last three years with us missing the playoffs then going to the Finals then more than likely missing the playoffs again triggers some kind of reboot in Lou's mind back to 1988-89 and we can put together something special again.

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If you ignore the names on the back of the Jerseys, every line playing for the Devils looks like good 4th line. They bring a lot of energy and keep, puck away from the opponent and with a bit of luck score an occasional goal.

 

yeah this and this is the kind of players Lou wants

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Some points I’d like t make:

Lou did not botch the Parise loss. Parise and his wife had decided on Minny with Suter regardless. Lou offered what he could.

Giving up assets in picks for Pony was a mistake. Lou could have signed him for free without giving up assets during offseason but had to wait on Parise.

4th rounders or,whatever we gave up for Pony by themselves 90% of the time end up being crap l but packed together with other assets and maybe we could have moved up a spot or two in this years draft.

Mistake trading for him but totally see why he had to.

Larsson at this very point in time does not look like a 4th overall pick. I would take Dougie Hamilton over him right now. Hopefully I am proven wrong Ina year or two.

I know Dmen take longer to develop but so far nothing has amazed me with watching Larsson. He does not have good foot speed, he does not have a cannon for a shot , he does not hit very often , he does not do anything that players like RNH , Landeskog , Huberdeau, etc. do, which is show that they are standout players with exceptional skill. Larsson just looks average at everything.

Not giving up the 29th overall pick last year was a mistake. Only one spot crappier to draft in the first round yet we hold onto it and now have to forfeit one in the next two years, and going off of our position this year and add to the fact our core is getting even older next year AND maybe losing Patty and Clarkson… We may have to forfeit a top 10 pick instead of the 29th.

I am pissed that we lost Parise and did nothing to replace him, but when thinking about it,how/ who could we have replaced him with? Only decent free agent was Semin , and he was a big question mark with his attitude and workmanship issues.

Lou had to patch together a roster without Parise and hope for others to step up. We still have cap space and hopefully use it to an advantage instead of panicking and spending precious money and cap space just for the sake of making a move.

Be patient , Lou will do whatever he can to make the team the best possible.

He has had mistakes but a lot of the times he was screwed over by circumstances out of his control.

Only true screw ups he has made is not forfeiting last years pick and not drafting a goalie to replace Marty sooner.

Frazee is a pile of garbage and will never see the NHL even as a backup, Kinkaid and Wedgewood are still a couple of years out.

Teddy is a bust. Could of had Carlson instead but took another 5”‘3” winger…. Or maybe I’m thinking of JJ we took ahead of Carlson, either way, we blew that pick.

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dude will you get off my case? i did say that OBVIOUSLY it's not that black and white and ALL I SAID was responding to someone saying we would have been in big cap trouble if we would have signed zach and that it was not true that we would have been fvcked with his contract's cause we could always have trade him, worst comes to worst. Thats all. Read before calling me out jesus christ

 

Yeah, you can always trade huge contracts.  Just look at Luongo!  Gone the day Vancouver wanted him gone.

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Sterio, let it go.  As much as you seem to think you have an answer for everything, it will never be as obvious or easy as you like to believe these things are.

 

Clearly, losing Kovy was a killer...I don't know how many more games the Devils would've won had he stayed healthy, but it's kind of hard to believe that the Devils wouldn't have won at least a couple of games with him in the lineup.  This whole thing is crazy.

 

As "unlucky" as the Devils have been during this streak, there's a part of me that wouldn't mind seeing a serious reboot...the problem is that most of the guys who are here really haven't been here that long.  Some fans will say Elias needs to be re-signed no matter what, just because...but I'm not in the camp of that being an automatic.  Ditto Clarkson.  I guess my thoughts are too jumbled right now.  The only thing I can really say with any certainty is that I'm ready for something DIFFERENT...I just have to figure out what "different" means, beyond abstract yearnings.

 

 i don't want to keep elias just because and it's not even out of his life long devils status. i want to keep him because he is good and I'm not convinced that there is a better player out there that the devils can get to replace him.

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Yeah, you can always trade huge contracts.  Just look at Luongo!  Gone the day Vancouver wanted him gone.

 

Minny would have trade anything to get Parise im sure of that, just look at what they gave for Pomminville.

 i don't want to keep elias just because and it's not even out of his life long devils status. i want to keep him because he is good and I'm not convinced that there is a better player out there that the devils can get to replace him.

 

the thing is... if you bargain til the deadline to sign Elias... if he doesnt.. then you ABSOLUTELY have to replace him somehow and by the time its all said and done it doesnt mean you can even sign a player.Let's say there 4 people who could "replace" Elias... doesnt mean any of them would sign here. We have to keep Elias cause we "have" him. We have absolutely no idea if we could replace him.

Edited by SterioDesign

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Minny would have trade anything to get Parise im sure of that, just look at what they gave for Pomminville.

 

Sure - guy on a lifetime contract versus a guy signed for one more year.  Got me there. 

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Sure - guy on a lifetime contract versus a guy signed for one more year.  Got me there. 

 

i wont continue this discussion cause you'll probably kick me out of the chatroom for mentioning something about it later.

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All you can do is laugh at this point...

 

thats what i do, pretty obvious at this point that they are not making the playoffs, and they are not as bad as their record is showing... so well thanks NHL system for giving us a top prospect better than we really should get.

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I know I'll probably get crucified for this, but NJ is gonna be fine. First of all, we've given up the least amount of shots in the league. Next, let's look at shot differential:

 

1) LA- +5.5

2) Chicago- +5.2

3) NJ- + 4.9

4) MTL- +3.4

5) Boston- +3.1

6) San Jose- +2.9

 

That's some pretty good company right there. We'll retool in the offseason, get healthy and get a blue chip prospect we probably don't deserve (relative to our skill as a team)

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 i don't want to keep elias just because and it's not even out of his life long devils status. i want to keep him because he is good and I'm not convinced that there is a better player out there that the devils can get to replace him.

 

There's clearly reasons to keep him, but the Devils are about to miss the playoffs for the second time in three seasons.  Granted, a 48-game schedule can make any given season a little goofy, but it still counts.  Elias is going to be 37 and it's hard to tell how long he's going to be Elias-like.  SMantzas does point out a fair reason why one can argue that the team should be kept relatively intact.  I think it comes down to what Elias asks for...anything more than two years, I think the Devils should move on.   

 

My comment wasn't directed towards you so much. 

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i wont continue this discussion cause you'll probably kick me out of the chatroom for mentioning something about it later.

 

Being like this is what got you kicked out.  

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I know I'll probably get crucified for this, but NJ is gonna be fine. First of all, we've given up the least amount of shots in the league. Next, let's look at shot differential:

 

1) LA- +5.5

2) Chicago- +5.2

3) NJ- + 4.9

4) MTL- +3.4

5) Boston- +3.1

6) San Jose- +2.9

 

That's some pretty good company right there. We'll retool in the offseason, get healthy and get a blue chip prospect we probably don't deserve (relative to our skill as a team)

 

All shot differential with no goals tells me is that they have the right system and the wrong personnel up front - something which you don't need numbers to tell you anyway.    They don't currently have a 30-goal scorer in the lineup.  They barely have three 20-goal scorers (Elias, Clarkson, Henrique) and at this point all of them - even Elias - are complementary players.  Can't trust Zajac to get 20-25 anymore now that he's been awful two straight years without Zach.  Half the other forwards don't even have double-digit goal potential.  No defenseman currently has 10-goal potential either.

 

Even with Kovy they need a 'bit' more scoring at all positions.  There's a reason Kovy was playing 26 minutes a game before he got hurt and that can't continue.

Edited by NJDevs4978

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All shot differential with no goals tells me is that they have the right system and the wrong personnel.    They don't currently have a 30-goal scorer in the lineup.  They barely have three 20-goal scorers (Elias, Clarkson, Henrique) and at this point all of them - even Elias - are complementary players.  Can't trust Zajac to get 20-25 anymore now that he's been awful two straight years without Zach.  Half the other forwards don't even have double-digit goal potential.  No defenseman currently has 10-goal potential.

I agree to an extent. Without Kovy, we have no one who is consistent, but that doesn't explain how pretty much everyone is shooting well below their career average

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All shot differential with no goals tells me is that they have the right system and the wrong personnel up front - something which you don't need numbers to tell you anyway.    They don't currently have a 30-goal scorer in the lineup.  They barely have three 20-goal scorers (Elias, Clarkson, Henrique) and at this point all of them - even Elias - are complementary players.  Can't trust Zajac to get 20-25 anymore now that he's been awful two straight years without Zach.  Half the other forwards don't even have double-digit goal potential.  No defenseman currently has 10-goal potential either.

 

Even with Kovy they need a 'bit' more scoring at all positions.  There's a reason Kovy was playing 26 minutes a game before he got hurt and that can't continue.

 

Kovalchuk's ice time was actually going down when he got hurt.  DeBoer was giving him more 22 minute games.  I'm not that concerned about this as long as they stop double shifting him at even strength, which they didn't have to do - that was something they chose to do.

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I know I'll probably get crucified for this, but NJ is gonna be fine. First of all, we've given up the least amount of shots in the league. Next, let's look at shot differential:

 

1) LA- +5.5

2) Chicago- +5.2

3) NJ- + 4.9

4) MTL- +3.4

5) Boston- +3.1

6) San Jose- +2.9

 

That's some pretty good company right there. We'll retool in the offseason, get healthy and get a blue chip prospect we probably don't deserve (relative to our skill as a team)

 

If you're not familiar with the term, I suggest you look up "cargo cult science".

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Some points I’d like t make:

Lou did not botch the Parise loss. Parise and his wife had decided on Minny with Suter regardless. Lou offered what he could.

Giving up assets in picks for Pony was a mistake. Lou could have signed him for free without giving up assets during offseason but had to wait on Parise.

4th rounders or,whatever we gave up for Pony by themselves 90% of the time end up being crap l but packed together with other assets and maybe we could have moved up a spot or two in this years draft.

Mistake trading for him but totally see why he had to.

Larsson at this very point in time does not look like a 4th overall pick. I would take Dougie Hamilton over him right now. Hopefully I am proven wrong Ina year or two.

I know Dmen take longer to develop but so far nothing has amazed me with watching Larsson. He does not have good foot speed, he does not have a cannon for a shot , he does not hit very often , he does not do anything that players like RNH , Landeskog , Huberdeau, etc. do, which is show that they are standout players with exceptional skill. Larsson just looks average at everything.

Not giving up the 29th overall pick last year was a mistake. Only one spot crappier to draft in the first round yet we hold onto it and now have to forfeit one in the next two years, and going off of our position this year and add to the fact our core is getting even older next year AND maybe losing Patty and Clarkson… We may have to forfeit a top 10 pick instead of the 29th.

I am pissed that we lost Parise and did nothing to replace him, but when thinking about it,how/ who could we have replaced him with? Only decent free agent was Semin , and he was a big question mark with his attitude and workmanship issues.

Lou had to patch together a roster without Parise and hope for others to step up. We still have cap space and hopefully use it to an advantage instead of panicking and spending precious money and cap space just for the sake of making a move.

Be patient , Lou will do whatever he can to make the team the best possible.

He has had mistakes but a lot of the times he was screwed over by circumstances out of his control.

Only true screw ups he has made is not forfeiting last years pick and not drafting a goalie to replace Marty sooner.

Frazee is a pile of garbage and will never see the NHL even as a backup, Kinkaid and Wedgewood are still a couple of years out.

Teddy is a bust. Could of had Carlson instead but took another 5”‘3” winger…. Or maybe I’m thinking of JJ we took ahead of Carlson, either way, we blew that pick.

I'm pretty glad Larsson doesn't play like a forward. You should be too, but you're not.

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If you're not familiar with the term, I suggest you look up "cargo cult science".

Did I ever say this was an exact science? All it means is that the Devils have consistently earned way more chances than their opposition. When you shoot, several things happen: a goal from beating a goalie cleanly, a rebound, a deflection, etc.

Better than merely looking at results without any context

Edited by SMantzas

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If you're not familiar with the term, I suggest you look up "cargo cult science".

 

I suggest you look up shot differentials.  They're quite illuminating.

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