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Is this the worst stretch of luck in NHL history?

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I suggest you look up shot differentials.  They're quite illuminating.

 

I suggest you look at this 10 game losing streak and notice the lack of production. 

 

"they follow all the apparent precepts and forms of scientific investigation, butthey're missing something essential, because the planes don't land."
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I suggest you look at this 10 game losing streak and notice the lack of production. 

 

"they follow all the apparent precepts and forms of scientific investigation, butthey're missing something essential, because the planes don't land."

 

If I flip a coin 10 times and get heads 10 times, I can now state that coins that are flipped will land heads forever.  If you disagree with me then you're using psuedoscience since I have direct proof of these 10 flips.

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Better than merely looking at results without any context

 

Looking at shot differentials is the same exact thing, which is why it drives me up a wall when people tout it. 

 

it helps when you have better players shooting the puck.  And what do you know, the player on the team that's best at that hasn't been playing. 

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Looking at shot differentials is the same exact thing, which is why it drives me up a wall when people tout it. 

 

it helps when you have better players shooting the puck.  And what do you know, the player on the team that's best at that hasn't been playing. 

 

People have been providing context with the shot chart and with watching the games.  

 

Look at last game, not only did the Devils have many more shots, they had many more shots from good spots.  They hit another post, they had the goalie making saves where he's just hoping the puck hits him, and they missed some chances.  All those things don't keep going wrong, unless, overnight, almost every player on the Devils magically became half the shooter they've always been.

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Looking at shot differentials is the same exact thing, which is why it drives me up a wall when people tout it. 

 

it helps when you have better players shooting the puck.  And what do you know, the player on the team that's best at that hasn't been playing. 

And it also helps looking at a large sample size (ie. a player's career shooting %). Pretty much the whole team is shooting well below their career average

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If I flip a coin 10 times and get heads 10 times, I can now state that coins that are flipped will land heads forever.  If you disagree with me then you're using psuedoscience since I have direct proof of these 10 flips.

 

Nice try and a nice strawman.  The point is that someone else looks at shot differentials, sees a correlation, and assumes causation without any context at all.  The lack of context is why the planes aren't landing here, i.e. why the Devils are not winning games they supposedly "dominate" or outshoot their opponents.

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Nice try and a nice strawman.  The point is that someone else looks at shot differentials, sees a correlation, and assumes causation without any context at all.  The lack of context is why the planes aren't landing here, i.e. why the Devils are not winning games they supposedly "dominate" or outshoot their opponents.

 

:lol: You're the one who is trying to take the context away.  We see the Devils are outchances their opponents and outshooting them.  Your "proof" is the lack of goal scoring, which also lacks context.  You're adding less context by boiling things down to less likely events and then saying that's a definitive result, that good play always leads to goals.

 

I stand by what I wrote as being almost identical to what you wrote, whether you agree or not.

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I'm pretty glad Larsson doesn't play like a forward. You should be too, but you're not.

Attl that wasn't written by me it was by someone else on a different board but some if seemed interesting so I posted here.

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Daniel- 

1 team with a top-10 shot differential isn't in the playoffs (NJ) and 2 teams who are in the bottom-10 for shot differential are in the playoffs (WSH and TOR)
 
It seems like a pretty good indicator of performance
Edited by SMantzas

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Daniel- 

1 team with a top-10 shot differential isn't in the playoffs (NJ) and 2 teams who are in the bottom-10 for shot differential are in the playoffs (WSH and TOR)
 
It seems like a pretty good indicator of performance

 

Since 1995 (which was as far back as I wanted to look - shot quality becomes a concern the farther I go back), non-playoff teams have never cumulatively had a shot differential above 50%.

 

The thing about shot differential is that it is a super-broad brush - since worse teams tend to be behind more often than they are ahead, they get more time where their shot differential is expected to be higher (trailing teams tend to outshoot leading teams) - but yeah look at 15+ years of data and some patterns emerge.

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All shot differential with no goals tells me is that they have the right system and the wrong personnel up front - something which you don't need numbers to tell you anyway.    They don't currently have a 30-goal scorer in the lineup.  They barely have three 20-goal scorers (Elias, Clarkson, Henrique) and at this point all of them - even Elias - are complementary players.  Can't trust Zajac to get 20-25 anymore now that he's been awful two straight years without Zach.  Half the other forwards don't even have double-digit goal potential.  No defenseman currently has 10-goal potential either.

 

Even with Kovy they need a 'bit' more scoring at all positions.  There's a reason Kovy was playing 26 minutes a game before he got hurt and that can't continue.

 

Elias and Clarkson are NOT "barely 20 goal scorers". i mean, this recent 10 game skid where nobody has scored hasn't helped but both are clearly 22-28G/ season - especially with their PP presence. Henrique should also be a 20G scorer. In a perfect world, they do add one more winger who is capable of scoring 20. i suppose its possible loktionov could get there.

 

ideally, you have:

 

xxx-loktionov-kovalchuk

elias-zajac-clarkson

henrique-josefson-xxxx

carter-xxxx-bernier

 

now, gionta is obviously the current 4th line center but i hope they kill that nightmare.

zubrus could very likely be that 3rd line RW.

the key, as i see it, is finding the solution to 1st line LW - the devils have tried to make that a power forward type (zubrus/ponikarovsky/palmieri) where scoring was second to driving the net. i'd prefer it be a scorer.

as an aside, i'm not positive where matteau fits here as a LW unless they're going to keep henrique at center, in which case josefson moves down to center line 4. that's certainly doable.

 

i suppose, if the devils draft monanhan or shinkaruk, they could conceivably give them a shot at LW on that line but i think that's some serious wishful thinking on lots of fronts.

Edited by sundstrom

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It has to end in the next two games.   Those teams are just too bad defensively to not blow them up.

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Devils have the least amount of goals in the league, anyone mention that yet? Heh.

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It has to end in the next two games.   Those teams are just too bad defensively to not blow them up.

 

So instead of 35 shots on net without a goal we get 50 without a goal...great :P

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