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Summer 2013 UFA/RFA Thread

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I don't think that Miller is an option, but I would consider him among the better-elite goalies in the league.  He backstopped Buffalo with an .915 save pct. with a losing record.  If you look at his stats, he's been a consistent 91% save percent or better his entire career.  That's a guy in his prime.  If Brodeur could have given us that all year long, we might have made playoffs.

 

.910 is 6 goals.

.915 is 10.

 

10 in 29 is alot, granted.    But hitting .910 probably wouldn't have made much of a difference, especially when some of those goals that brought the SV% down came when they were more or less finished off.

 

I think it's tricky.   They do need a second goalie, but it matters how much you spend on it.    Need to avoid giving up something big next June, but at the same time they have to be smart what they spend to try to do it.   Worse case scenario is that you overspend and it doesn't change much.   I do wish they ran some guys out there when Moose was sh!tting out the joint, just to see what they had, and even at the end of the season too.   It's nice that Moose got that game and gets to go out on a good note, but you don't learn much from doing that.

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Not sure if this was mentioned but according to McKenzie on twitter the Habs have used their final complaince buyout on Kaberle.

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Lou really put himself in a bad spot by signing the grumpy old goalies. There's not much young goaltending talent available on the market right now.

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Lou really put himself in a bad spot by signing the grumpy old goalies. There's not much young goaltending talent available on the market right now.

 

Marty was getting re-signed no matter what, especially since over the last 50 games or so of 2011-12 (including the playoffs) Marty's save% was around .920.  Did you really think Lou was going to let Marty walk, even if he might have been justified in doing so?  If you want to be strictly forensic about it, sure, Lou letting Marty leave could've made sense:  Marty had shown flashes of being past his prime in both 2010-11 and 2011-12, and Lou could've said, "Well, I've gotten the best of what Marty has left, but he's 40 years old and not getting any younger, he's played an insane amount of games, I'm not sure how much more he can give.  Maybe this final playoff run was the very last of his best."  But you know full well that's not how it works, and a guy like Marty, who has given as much to his organization as anyone ever to play the game, is not going to be treated so coldly and strictly by-the-numbers (nor should he).  Call this the "price" for having enjoyed watching one of the best do his thing for your team for a prime that lasted from '93 to '10 if you want.    

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I should have been a bit more explicit. resigning Moose was not the best idea.

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It should certainly be an exciting draft.  I expect lots of trades (but then again, I expect trades every year)

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Lou really put himself in a bad spot by signing the grumpy old goalies. There's not much young goaltending talent available on the market right now.

 

A little over-dramatic. There's nothing that Johan Hedberg's $1.4M contract is crippling us from doing. Lou can make a trade or a signing for the goaltender position at any time. The worst-case scenario is we have 3 goalies and Hedberg gets scratched for whatever the remainder of the season is. Maybe he assumes an assistant goaltending coach position or something. Point is, the signing doesn't "put us in a bad spot", I think it was the right contract to hand out at the time, right for Hedberg after a strong year by him, and right for the locker room.

Edited by DJ Eco

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lots of rumbling about the Leafs ready to make moves.

 

per Dreger and mckenzie, Phaneuf would be on the block but no one has called yet for him. 

 

per Davild staples, leafs would be in talks with the oilers about Gagner. Has they are looking for a young center... weird cause they have Bozak but apparently he wants about 5.5m but they dont want to give him that. kinda weird.

 

per Zeisberger from the Toronto Sun. Komisarek will be bought out, Bozak could have played his last game with the leafs. 

 

per Berger, said that komisarek and possible grabovski and liles could be bought out too.

 

so multiple reports are saying the same thing so Bozak seems to be a goner. And all those moves could easily make room for them to snag Clarkson if they want him.

 

other reports are saying that Clarkson to Toronto is almost a sure thing at this point. I believe that too.

Edited by SterioDesign

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lots of rumbling about the Leafs ready to make moves.

 

per Dreger and mckenzie, Phaneuf would be on the block but no one has called yet for him. 

 

per Davild staples, leafs would be in talks with the oilers about Gagner. Has they are looking for a young center... weird cause they have Bozak but apparently he wants about 5.5m but they dont want to give him that. kinda weird.

 

per Zeisberger from the Toronto Sun. Komisarek will be bought out, Bozak could have played his last game with the leafs. 

 

per Berger, said that komisarek and possible grabovski and liles could be bought out too.

 

so multiple reports are saying the same thing so Bozak seems to be a goner. And all those moves could easily make room for them to snag Clarkson if they want him.

 

other reports are saying that Clarkson to Toronto is almost a sure thing at this point. I believe that too.

 

 

Jeez, you'd think a team that held up pretty well this past season and was 2 minutes away from making the second round of the playoffs against an insane Bruins team (they didn't, but they undoubtedly had the hardest first round matchup, harder than even the Islanders did, and forced a game 7) would try not to make too many moves to break that team up. Look at Philly and New York the past 5 years...

Edited by DJ Eco

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Yeah, that's fine - they can have him.  I like Clarkson but I'm not convinced the huge uptick in his territorial play is legitimate, or that we can ever expect him to shoot 13% again.

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Yeah, that's fine - they can have him.  I like Clarkson but I'm not convinced the huge uptick in his territorial play is legitimate, or that we can ever expect him to shoot 13% again.

 

yeah no big deal. what team would be hurt after losing and not getting anything / not replacing 2 30 goals scorers and a 20 goal scorer after all. 

 

But hey! we're not overpaying players !!! thats the real win after all.

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yeah no big deal. what team would be hurt after losing and not getting anything / not replacing 2 30 goals scorers and a 20 goal scorer after all. 

 

But hey! we're not overpaying players !!! thats the real win after all.

 

Hahaha.  Clarkson is overrated around the league, at least if broadcasters are any indication of how GMs feel.  No one ever said anything about not replacing him.

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Hahaha.  Clarkson is overrated around the league, at least if broadcasters are any indication of how GMs feel.  No one ever said anything about not replacing him.

 

well we can't just sit here and be happy that we're not overpaying this and this player and try to bring them down and pretend its no big deal. Seriously who's gonna score goals? Without Clarkson last year we'd be top3 at the draft this weekend.

 

who's on the market who could replace him? we don't really have assets to replace him either and we already didnt have enough goals last season after losing Zach/Sykora's production from the year before. Lou gambled that the guys could step up and somehow make it happen but we had injuries and it didnt happen at all. We had 112 goals for, thats 1 more goal than Nashville who finish last in the entire league. How is LOSING on of your top player any good on top of that? Even if we could somehow sign a guy like Horton or wtv. His production will simply replace Clarkson's production from this year. We'll still be lacking goals.

 

edit: for the record and i assume you guys know this. but i never liked Clarkson. But still i know what he brings, he can score, fight, work the boards (which is fvcking important in NJ our whole system relies on this and we already lost zach and zubie is not re-signed yet and not getting any younger), hit and get under the other team's skin

Edited by SterioDesign

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well we can't just sit here and be happy that we're not overpaying this and this player and try to bring them down and pretend its no big deal. Seriously who's gonna score goals? Without Clarkson last year we'd be top3 at the draft this weekend.

 

One of the flaws in your analyses is that you think in terms of goals lost instead of how many goals did this player score given his circumstances.  Clarkson played with Elias pretty much all season and was on the top unit power play all season.  How many goals do you think a player in this position should be expected to score?  How many do I think Bobby Butler (replacement-level scoring forward) would score given this ice time?  I think he'd score 15-20 in 82 games.

 

 

 

 

who's on the market who could replace him? we don't really have assets to replace him either and we already didnt have enough goals last season after losing Zach/Sykora's production from the year before. Lou gambled that the guys could step up and somehow make it happen but we had injuries and it didnt happen at all. We had 112 goals for, thats 1 more goal than Nashville who finish last in the entire league. How is LOSING on of your top player any good on top of that? Even if we could somehow sign a guy like Horton or wtv. His production will simply replace Clarkson's production from this year. We'll still be lacking goals.

 

I don't think this way, and neither should any GM.  The Devils got goals from Steve Bernier and Ryan Carter where they didn't last year.  They got goals from Travis Zajac as well - he was hurt all of the previous season (and shot horribly).  Andrei Loktionov was on pace to score 20 in an 82 game season.  You cannot count goals, especially from a season where *gasp* the Devils got shooting luck.  You can have a range of expectations based on where players should go in the lineup, but counting goals makes no sense.

 

As I keep saying, this market is going to be odd.  Some players are going to get shut out.  There's not a lot of money available.  Is someone going to go nuts for Michael Ryder?  What about Brad Boyes?  These are likely low-cost options - if you're a special peacock during this free agent period, you will get money.  If you're not, maybe you won't, and that's where NJ can jump in.

Edited by Triumph

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Marty was getting re-signed no matter what, especially since over the last 50 games or so of 2011-12 (including the playoffs) Marty's save% was around .920.  Did you really think Lou was going to let Marty walk, even if he might have been justified in doing so?  If you want to be strictly forensic about it, sure, Lou letting Marty leave could've made sense:  Marty had shown flashes of being past his prime in both 2010-11 and 2011-12, and Lou could've said, "Well, I've gotten the best of what Marty has left, but he's 40 years old and not getting any younger, he's played an insane amount of games, I'm not sure how much more he can give.  Maybe this final playoff run was the very last of his best."  But you know full well that's not how it works, and a guy like Marty, who has given as much to his organization as anyone ever to play the game, is not going to be treated so coldly and strictly by-the-numbers (nor should he).  Call this the "price" for having enjoyed watching one of the best do his thing for your team for a prime that lasted from '93 to '10 if you want.

kind of sad when you know the brodeur that was absolutely amazing.. then the brodeur that was just average.. to the marty that is now who is pretty much past his prime.. i don't want to see him go out as a last memory of being all washed up.. i feel maybe he should have left last season gracefully ... fans have already started turning on him which is truly fvcked up and a shame.. and new fans will only know him of how his play is now.. I'm 23.. I've been watching him since i was 5 years old and he's been my hero since.. i love the guy and will truly feel sadness when he officially hangs it up... but i don't want to see the team suffer or his reputation after all he has done because he is having a hard time walking away

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seems like everyone is set on clarkson leaving.. i don't know why everyone is so set on this already.. we haven't heard anything but we havent heard anything about anyone except that lou really wanted to resign patty zubes and clarky... for all we know there could already be 3 contracts done up or in the works for these guys already.. i mean honestly do we honestly think our 3 most important 3 fa's have gone this long with out getting anything done for them.. no way. im not completely sold on clarkson leaving yet... i know toronto is his home but he likes it here i would think he would want to stay here and i truly think that lou will give him a fair offer of at least 4m... 4.5m.. and marty is his best bud so who knows lol.

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seems like everyone is set on clarkson leaving.. i don't know why everyone is so set on this already.. we haven't heard anything but we havent heard anything about anyone except that lou really wanted to resign patty zubes and clarky... for all we know there could already be 3 contracts done up or in the works for these guys already.. i mean honestly do we honestly think our 3 most important 3 fa's have gone this long with out getting anything done for them.. no way. im not completely sold on clarkson leaving yet... i know toronto is his home but he likes it here i would think he would want to stay here and i truly think that lou will give him a fair offer of at least 4m... 4.5m.. and marty is his best bud so who knows lol.

 

I don't know if it's a sure fire deal that Clarkson's leaving, the way the media's "sources" are reporting it to be. I think we're getting a firsthand look at what the Toronto/Canadian hockey press is all about; it's like New York's football press on steroids. We should take everything with a grain of salt, I don't think we've had any postseason links to Toronto in a while, so we're just not used to the ramifications of what it means when their press gets involved. Suddenly every team's Canadian UFAs "want to go to Toronto" during the offseason... we've heard that before. But we'll see how things play out...

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One of the flaws in your analyses is that you think in terms of goals lost instead of how many goals did this player score given his circumstances.  Clarkson played with Elias pretty much all season and was on the top unit power play all season.  How many goals do you think a player in this position should be expected to score?  How many do I think Bobby Butler (replacement-level scoring forward) would score given this ice time?  I think he'd score 15-20 in 82 games.

 

 

 

 

 

I don't think this way, and neither should any GM.  The Devils got goals from Steve Bernier and Ryan Carter where they didn't last year.  They got goals from Travis Zajac as well - he was hurt all of the previous season (and shot horribly).  Andrei Loktionov was on pace to score 20 in an 82 game season.  You cannot count goals, especially from a season where *gasp* the Devils got shooting luck.  You can have a range of expectations based on where players should go in the lineup, but counting goals makes no sense.

 

As I keep saying, this market is going to be odd.  Some players are going to get shut out.  There's not a lot of money available.  Is someone going to go nuts for Michael Ryder?  What about Brad Boyes?  These are likely low-cost options - if you're a special peacock during this free agent period, you will get money.  If you're not, maybe you won't, and that's where NJ can jump in.

 

sigh... way to (once again) just turning my words trying to make them sound wrong and ignore the whole point) Its not about "counting goals" directly and you know it, theres just no other way to put it. You know what i mean, you can't lose like half your top producers within 2 years, not replace their production and expect that the other guys will pick it up. You score a certain amount of goals cause you do something right, Bernier couldnt have Kovalchuk's numbers. 

 

take out Lucic, Bergeron and marchand from Boston for a full season? no big deal right? 

 

plus then you lose guys for your PP and PK and we already had terrible players on it covering for the players we lost, they take bigger role that they cant fill and you get a year like we did.

 

then the SO, Clarkson was already not the best 3rd/4th shooter you'd wish for in a score-or-go-home situation, now if he's gone who is it gonna be?

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sigh... way to (once again) just turning my words trying to make them sound wrong and ignore the whole point) Its not about "counting goals" directly and you know it, theres just no other way to put it. You know what i mean, you can't lose like half your top producers within 2 years, not replace their production and expect that the other guys will pick it up. You score a certain amount of goals cause you do something right, Bernier couldnt have Kovalchuk's numbers.

 

 

But the Devils haven't not replaced their production, you just totally ignore it when they do.  You keep bringing up Petr Sykora which is ridiculous.  He scored 20 goals, he got lucky to do so, the Devils have better scoring depth up and down the lineup than when Petr Sykora played here.  Stop bringing him up.  But you won't, because you count goals.  There is no other way for you to put it, I agree.

 

 

take out Lucic, Bergeron and marchand from Boston for a full season? no big deal right?

 

Yeah, those guys are comparable to Parise, Sykora, and Clarkson.  The point is that the more replaceable a player is (Parise no, Clarkson and Sykora yes), the less of a panic I'm going to be thrown into when the Devils lose him.  Clarkson generates lots of shots.  He's had a below average on-ice shooting percentage in each of the last 3 years.  I don't think it's hard to replace this kind of player even though people will talk about heart and fighting and getting into the opponents' heads - yeah sure, you won't replace Clarkson in those respects.  But those are the aspects for which he's overpaid - he draws penalties, but he takes a lot too.

 

plus then you lose guys for your PP and PK and we already had terrible players on it covering for the players we lost, they take bigger role that they cant fill and you get a year like we did.

 

I don't think Clarkson is very good on a power play, and I don't think it will be hard to find someone better.

 

then the SO, Clarkson was already not the best 3rd/4th shooter you'd wish for in a score-or-go-home situation, now if he's gone who is it gonna be?

 

I don't think Clarkson is very good in the shootout.  He has 7 lifetime attempts, he's 3 for 7.  I don't think he's significantly worse or better than who would replace him.

Edited by Triumph

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Yeah lol at Clarkson in the shootout being important, he had five of those attempts last year and used his 'one' move every time, by the last attempt goalies were literally in position before Clarkson moved from center ice.

Edited by NJDevs4978

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But the Devils haven't not replaced their production, you just totally ignore it when they do.  You keep bringing up Petr Sykora which is ridiculous.  He scored 20 goals, he got lucky to do so, the Devils have better scoring depth up and down the lineup than when Petr Sykora played here.  Stop bringing him up.  But you won't, because you count goals.  There is no other way for you to put it, I agree.

 

like it or not but Sykora outproduced pretty much or close to all waivers pick-up or goons that Lou signed after he left. We won games because of Sykora's shot. Of course he's old and slow but his goals off the faceoff helped us and for the price he was a good deal. 

 

 

Yeah, those guys are comparable to Parise, Sykora, and Clarkson.  The point is that the more replaceable a player is (Parise no, Clarkson and Sykora yes), the less of a panic I'm going to be thrown into when the Devils lose him.  Clarkson generates lots of shots.  He's had a below average on-ice shooting percentage in each of the last 3 years.  I don't think it's hard to replace this kind of player even though people will talk about heart and fighting and getting into the opponents' heads - yeah sure, you won't replace Clarkson in those respects.  But those are the aspects for which he's overpaid - he draws penalties, but he takes a lot too.

 

Screening the goalies and playing the boards is so important in NJ and he's one of the only guy who would do it thats also something you have to consider that you won't see in your numbers analysis. i hate him but he was damn helpful in many areas.

 

I don't think Clarkson is very good on a power play, and I don't think it will be hard to find someone better.

 

see my last answer up there

 

I don't think Clarkson is very good in the shootout.  He has 7 lifetime attempts, he's 3 for 7.  I don't think he's significantly worse or better than who would replace him.

 

Thats the point again, we dont have depth and players taking the spot of other players leaving is bad, remember last summer when i was saying losing zach would be bad on the PK that we had no depth for that. You said it was nooooooo problem bla bla bla like youre doing now and we saw a full season of Gionta on the PK. go ahead ignore that and brush it off as if theres no problem again  though

Yeah lol at Clarkson in the shootout being important, he had five of those attempts last year and used his 'one' move every time, by the last attempt goalies were literally in position before Clarkson moved from center ice.

 

its not about him not being important, its about if HE was the 4th best option. Thats pretty bad news, cause now your 4th best option was the 5th one last year (considering that after Kovalchuk it was sh!t) its pretty bad. 

 

But again, lets keep on saying losing our top players at various aspect of the game is no big deal and that the other guys will step up, was great last season

Edited by SterioDesign

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like it or not but Sykora outproduced pretty much or close to all waivers pick-up or goons that Lou signed after he left. We won games because of Sykora's shot. Of course he's old and slow but his goals off the faceoff helped us and for the price he was a good deal.

 

He didn't outproduce Loktionov.  Bernier and Carter were better than Boulton and Janssen.  But again, we missed Sykora, boo hoo, Sykora's gone, when are we going to score 5 goals off a faceoff ever again, as if that wasn't a total fluke.

 

Screening the goalies and playing the boards is so important in NJ and he's one of the only guy who would do it thats also something you have to consider that you won't see in your numbers analysis. i hate him but he was damn helpful in many areas.

 

The Devils can find someone as good at screening goalies.  Playing the boards, yeah, they'll lose out there.  Oh well - the Devils were fine territorially last year, and as long as Elias is retained, should be fine once again this year.  They can afford to lose some territorial advantage for an expectation of a higher shooting percentage.

 

Thats the point again, we dont have depth and players taking the spot of other players leaving is bad, remember last summer when i was saying losing zach would be bad on the PK that we had no depth for that. You said it was nooooooo problem bla bla bla like youre doing now and we saw a full season of Gionta on the PK. go ahead ignore that and brush it off as if theres no problem again  though

 

Stephen Gionta's numbers on the PK are fine - I don't like how he plays it, but his numbers don't reflect any sort of massive disadvantage.  You, again, don't really understand the way chance works.  The Devils were never going to sustain their numbers on last year's PK, they scored as many shorthanded goals, and their shot differential was actually better (-24 S/60 in 2012-13, -30 S/60 in 2011/12).

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Devils PK last season was one of the best in the league when shorthanded goals are factored in.

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He didn't outproduce Loktionov.  Bernier and Carter were better than Boulton and Janssen.  But again, we missed Sykora, boo hoo, Sykora's gone, when are we going to score 5 goals off a faceoff ever again, as if that wasn't a total fluke.

 

 

 

 

The Devils can find someone as good at screening goalies.  Playing the boards, yeah, they'll lose out there.  Oh well - the Devils were fine territorially last year, and as long as Elias is retained, should be fine once again this year.  They can afford to lose some territorial advantage for an expectation of a higher shooting percentage.

 

 

 

 

Stephen Gionta's numbers on the PK are fine - I don't like how he plays it, but his numbers don't reflect any sort of massive disadvantage.  You, again, don't really understand the way chance works.  The Devils were never going to sustain their numbers on last year's PK, they scored as many shorthanded goals, and their shot differential was actually better (-24 S/60 in 2012-13, -30 S/60 in 2011/12).

 

haha oh i perfectly understand how chance work for you... If an event or a result is not saying what your numbers is telling you... its chance. Oh trust me, i get that.

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