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Will the Devils trade up in this year's draft?

Will the Devils trade up in this year's draft?   42 members have voted

  1. 1. Where will the Devils make their first selection in the 2013 draft?

    • 1-8 overall
      11
    • 9
      24
    • 10+
      7

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98 posts in this topic

They need D, if we give them our first, 2nd and a D prospect I think it would do it. Man it would be so sweet if we could land lindholm

 

I really dont think thats worth moving up 2 spots.. This is a deep draft, there could be nice players available in the 2nd round as well. We'll hopefully be shedding some old expensive D-men soon, so trading away someone like Merrill doesn't appeal to me unless we're moving into the top 3. Someone like Shinkaruk should still be available at 9, he could easily turn out to be a 1st line sniper.

Edited by njdevsftw

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Hockeyprospectus, which is the biggest prospect buzz kill of them all projects Merrill as a first pairing defenseman. That's what you hope to get out of a defenseman drafted number 7.

 

He's been suspended for off-ice issues, he had off-ice issues before he was drafted, and a neck injury which some thought was career-threatening.  He's a dynamite prospect, but there's a lot of risk there.

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Devils should not try to move up to #7 or anywhere. It's simply going to cost way too much. If they aren't high on Shinkaruk, I wouldn't mind moving down to the middle of the first and gain another 2nd. 3 top 45 picks could help a lot down the road

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Hockeyprospectus, which is the biggest prospect buzz kill of them all projects Merrill as a first pairing defenseman. That's what you hope to get out of a defenseman drafted number 7. He's been suspended for off-ice issues, he had off-ice issues before he was drafted, and a neck injury which some thought was career-threatening. He's a dynamite prospect, but there's a lot of risk there.
I never heard anyone say that his neck injury was career threatening, or that they expect any issues going forward because of it. None of us know the nature of the off ice issues. Patrick Kane has had his share of those, and no one seems to think they matter all that much. Even with those though, he's at a stage now where he's projected to be what the other non Seth Jones defenseman in the draft project to be, based on what I've read anyway. Whatever risk he has, is a lot less as compared to any 17 year old that isn't can't miss.He's obviously not good enough to get you to the top five forwards, but after that a team that feels it needs defense might do it. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Devils should not try to move up to #7 or anywhere. It's simply going to cost way too much. If they aren't high on Shinkaruk, I wouldn't mind moving down to the middle of the first and gain another 2nd. 3 top 45 picks could help a lot down the road
Unless someone like Barkov falls for some inexplicable reason I agree with you.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

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I don't think anyone would trade the non-Jones top defenseman in the draft for Merrill straight up.  Merrill has played fine and is a really nice prospect, but he also hasn't shown any surprising growth either.

 

Merrill went 38th overall in a regular-ish draft year, possibly due to his off ice issues.  Those off ice issues haven't gone away, he's had a big injury, and his growth curve appears to be just normal.  I don't think teams will be that excited to trade a top 10 pick, in what looks like a good draft, for a guy with that track record who was a second round draft pick 2 years ago.

 

Merrill is probably slightly safer than a top defenseman taken in this draft, but due to Merrill's lack of playing time I don't think the risk difference is that great.  I do think the upside surprise for Merrill is much less than the top defenseman in this draft.  If I was a team that didn't view myself as an immediate contender, I'd prefer having the possibility of upside surprise rather than the slightly safer Merrill.

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I don't think anyone would trade the non-Jones top defenseman in the draft for Merrill straight up.  Merrill has played fine and is a really nice prospect, but he also hasn't shown any surprising growth either.

 

Merrill went 38th overall in a regular-ish draft year, possibly due to his off ice issues.  Those off ice issues haven't gone away, he's had a big injury, and his growth curve appears to be just normal.  I don't think teams will be that excited to trade a top 10 pick, in what looks like a good draft, for a guy with that track record who was a second round draft pick 2 years ago.

 

Merrill is probably slightly safer than a top defenseman taken in this draft, but due to Merrill's lack of playing time I don't think the risk difference is that great.  I do think the upside surprise for Merrill is much less than the top defenseman in this draft.  If I was a team that didn't view myself as an immediate contender, I'd prefer having the possibility of upside surprise rather than the slightly safer Merrill.

 

Eh.  If you redrafted the 2010 draft right now, Merrill probably goes in the late teens-early 20s, even with his issues (for instance, just about everyone above him taken in the 2nd round had a horrendous year in the pros, probably not helped out by the lockout, but still).  But like you said, that's still not enough (nor the ubiquitous 2nd round pick) to get a top pick.

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I don't think anyone would trade the non-Jones top defenseman in the draft for Merrill straight up. Merrill has played fine and is a really nice prospect, but he also hasn't shown any surprising growth either.

Merrill went 38th overall in a regular-ish draft year, possibly due to his off ice issues. Those off ice issues haven't gone away, he's had a big injury, and his growth curve appears to be just normal. I don't think teams will be that excited to trade a top 10 pick, in what looks like a good draft, for a guy with that track record who was a second round draft pick 2 years ago.

Merrill is probably slightly safer than a top defenseman taken in this draft, but due to Merrill's lack of playing time I don't think the risk difference is that great. I do think the upside surprise for Merrill is much less than the top defenseman in this draft. If I was a team that didn't view myself as an immediate contender, I'd prefer having the possibility of upside surprise rather than the slightly safer Merrill.

Eh. If you redrafted the 2010 draft right now, Merrill probably goes in the late teens-early 20s, even with his issues (for instance, just about everyone above him taken in the 2nd round had a horrendous year in the pros, probably not helped out by the lockout, but still). But like you said, that's still not enough (nor the ubiquitous 2nd round pick) to get a top pick.

I think Merrill would be taken before McIlrath, who was drafted 10 if you could do it again. Some mocks had Merrill being taken at 20.

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What do Mock drafts matter? He was taken 38th so that was his true value at the time to the NHL GMs.

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What do Mock drafts matter? He was taken 38th so that was his true value at the time to the NHL GMs.

They matter for purposes of evaluating someone's potential trade value after the fact. If you're talking about a player who has performed well after being drafted, it's helpful that he had first round talent, but fell for whatever reason. It helps Brandon Saad, probably Martin Frk, and other types that fall in the draft because of "attitude" or similar issues.

In any event, it's kind of funny that some people who just a short while ago talked about how people obsess too much over where someone was drafted.

Again, what no one has really refuted is that Merrill is a close to NHL ready defenseman that projects to be a first pairing defenseman. Usually that lands you in the top ten or top 15 picks of most drafts.

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I fail to see how mock drafts have anything to do with trade value. NHL GMs and NHL scouts said Merrill was worth the 38th overall pick at that time. They couldn't care less about where some mock drafts put Merrill.

For example, some mock drafts had Reece Scarlett as a solid second round pick. He fell to the 6th round. He's played very well since drafted. I think most Devils fans think he's a good prospect but I doubt he has much trade value since he's proven nothing at the AHL or NHL level.

Merrill has a similar issue of not having an AHL or NHL track record and he barely has a college record. I think you're really overvaluing Merrill's trade value by focusing on his positives and avoiding the negatives and risks associated with him.

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I fail to see how mock drafts have anything to do with trade value. NHL GMs and NHL scouts said Merrill was worth the 38th overall pick at that time. They couldn't care less about where some mock drafts put Merrill.

For example, some mock drafts had Reece Scarlett as a solid second round pick. He fell to the 6th round. He's played very well since drafted. I think most Devils fans think he's a good prospect but I doubt he has much trade value since he's proven nothing at the AHL or NHL level.

Merrill has a similar issue of not having an AHL or NHL track record and he barely has a college record. I think you're really overvaluing Merrill's trade value by focusing on his positives and avoiding the negatives and risks associated with him.

The only negatives that I hear about him are the off-ice issues and his injury. Both dont appear to be concerns for the Devils at this point, so I can only go on that. At this point, his risks are the same as any defensive prospect who is projecting to be a first pairing defenseman, I would say even less so in that Merrill is a bit older, has shown he could perform at a high level in NCAA play, and even during a short stint in the AHL.

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The only negatives that I hear about him are the off-ice issues and his injury. Both dont appear to be concerns for the Devils at this point, so I can only go on that. At this point, his risks are the same as any defensive prospect who is projecting to be a first pairing defenseman, I would say even less so in that Merrill is a bit older, has shown he could perform at a high level in NCAA play, and even during a short stint in the AHL. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

 

We can agree to disagree on whether his off ice issues and injury impact his trade value, that's just a judgement call and nobody can be right or wrong.

 

To bring it back to his trade value in general, if it's agreed the Devils need forwards, would you trade the 9th overall pick for Frk?  Since you mentioned him earlier.

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The only negatives that I hear about him are the off-ice issues and his injury. Both dont appear to be concerns for the Devils at this point, so I can only go on that. At this point, his risks are the same as any defensive prospect who is projecting to be a first pairing defenseman, I would say even less so in that Merrill is a bit older, has shown he could perform at a high level in NCAA play, and even during a short stint in the AHL. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

We can agree to disagree on whether his off ice issues and injury impact his trade value, that's just a judgement call and nobody can be right or wrong.

To bring it back to his trade value in general, if it's agreed the Devils need forwards, would you trade the 9th overall pick for Frk? Since you mentioned him earlier.

Frk was just a name I threw out there as someone that slipped in last years draft, but is playing well now.

I see the point you're getting at. Lets put it this way. Kuznetsev was drafted at the end of the first round in 2010, but that's a trade you would make. Or perhaps Emersen Etem, who evidently is playing well.

I try to be as even keeled about prospects and especially trade scenarios. I like Damon Severson, but I realize he still has a lot to prove before you can call him anything more than a Mark Fayne replacement, and hence, doesn't have much trade value on his own.

Merrill though is someone to be legitimately excited about, and haven't heard anything that suggests I'm missing something.

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I fail to see how mock drafts have anything to do with trade value. NHL GMs and NHL scouts said Merrill was worth the 38th overall pick at that time. They couldn't care less about where some mock drafts put Merrill.

For example, some mock drafts had Reece Scarlett as a solid second round pick. He fell to the 6th round. He's played very well since drafted. I think most Devils fans think he's a good prospect but I doubt he has much trade value since he's proven nothing at the AHL or NHL level.

Merrill has a similar issue of not having an AHL or NHL track record and he barely has a college record. I think you're really overvaluing Merrill's trade value by focusing on his positives and avoiding the negatives and risks associated with him.

 

I think it's hard to say that Merrill's 'true value' was 38th - he could've been higher on some boards but those people might not have had picks or the wherewithal to get them - but agree that mock drafts are a totally ridiculous way of showing that to be the case.  There's really nothing worse about entry drafts than mocks.

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I fail to see how mock drafts have anything to do with trade value. NHL GMs and NHL scouts said Merrill was worth the 38th overall pick at that time. They couldn't care less about where some mock drafts put Merrill.

For example, some mock drafts had Reece Scarlett as a solid second round pick. He fell to the 6th round. He's played very well since drafted. I think most Devils fans think he's a good prospect but I doubt he has much trade value since he's proven nothing at the AHL or NHL level.

Merrill has a similar issue of not having an AHL or NHL track record and he barely has a college record. I think you're really overvaluing Merrill's trade value by focusing on his positives and avoiding the negatives and risks associated with him.

I think it's hard to say that Merrill's 'true value' was 38th - he could've been higher on some boards but those people might not have had picks or the wherewithal to get them - but agree that mock drafts are a totally ridiculous way of showing that to be the case. There's really nothing worse about entry drafts than mocks.

I'm not saying you should look at Craig Buttons mock from three years ago to gauge Merrill's or whoevers worth. They're just proxies for folks like us that weren't in draft rooms to know what value teams put on this or that player and why.

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I'm not saying you should look at Craig Buttons mock from three years ago to gauge Merrill's or whoevers worth. They're just proxies for folks like us that weren't in draft rooms to know what value teams put on this or that player and why. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

 

They're not that at all.  They're people's guesses.  They're mildly useful in football's 1st round because teams draft for need in football - ditto the NBA because players' true value can be pretty easily ascertained (the list of NBA 2nd round picks who've become stars is very short).  They are totally useless in hockey where value is more murky and teams may or may not be drafting for need.  I suppose there could be a kind of efficient market theory of mock drafts, but most of these people don't have the information NHL teams have.

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They're not that at all.  They're people's guesses.  They're mildly useful in football's 1st round because teams draft for need in football - ditto the NBA because players' true value can be pretty easily ascertained (the list of NBA 2nd round picks who've become stars is very short).  They are totally useless in hockey where value is more murky and teams may or may not be drafting for need.  I suppose there could be a kind of efficient market theory of mock drafts, but most of these people don't have the information NHL teams have.

 

I think you're missing the point.  As you said, a team that drafted at 11 might have ranked Merrill ranked as number 20, but he wasn't around when it came time for them to pick in the second round, or maybe the guy that was ranked 18 was still around when they had their next pick.  We obviously don't know this for sure.  However, unless you can find me each team's big board, a good guess your average outsider has for purposes of a message board discussion about a prospect's potential trade value is where media types or other third parties that generally have an idea of what they're talking about ranked a particular player at the time.  Some of those people had Merrill ranked in the mid-teens, high twenties.  So it's not unreasonable to assume, again for our purposes, that at least a few teams had Merrill ranked in those slots. 

 

So the hypothetcal trade discussion between the Devils, and say, Edmonton, could go something like:  "Merrill projects to be a first pairing defenseman who will probably be in the NHL this year or next year."  "Yeah, but why I am trading the seventh overall for a guy that was drafted in the second round".  "We had him ranked at number 15, and also believe that a lot of teams had him rated as a first round selection on their boards at the time.  What he's shown in college and in his stint in the AHL gives you a strong reason to believe that he'll live up to that."  

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I don't see why Merrill's draft position THREE years ago has any bearing on his value now. Although he's missed a lot of time, he still projects to be a top 4 dman, possibly top pairing. I doubt Merrill alone is enough to get the 7th, but I'd rather take our chances with him. If Zidlicky doesn't re-sign, it might clear up a spot for Gelinas or Merrill to QB the PP.

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I don't see why Merrill's draft position THREE years ago has any bearing on his value now. Although he's missed a lot of time, he still projects to be a top 4 dman, possibly top pairing. I doubt Merrill alone is enough to get the 7th, but I'd rather take our chances with him. If Zidlicky doesn't re-sign, it might clear up a spot for Gelinas or Merrill to QB the PP.

 

I think his draft position has some bearing on his trade value because he has yet to play an NHL game.   That tends to go away once a player has a year or two of NHL experience.  I'm not an NHL executive, so I couldn't tell you for sure though.

 

So far as whether you would want to trade him for a pick in this draft -- say at 15 or above -- depends on what you think of the defense now and the other defenseman in the system.  If you think you can live without Merrill in the future, and end up with, say, two out of Monahan, Lindholm, Shinkaruk, Domi, Horvat, Lazar, it's something worth pursuing.  Basically, you're looking to repeat what the Flyers got out of the 2003 first round in Carter and Richards. 

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I don't agree with that reasoning, Daniel. You have a guy like Angelo Esposito who was basically a throw in on the Hossa to Pitt deal. A year or two later, it was clear he was not going to make the NHL. The point I'm trying to make is that some prospects fizzle out and some get better with time. Obviously this is common knowledge, but Merrill's talent was never a question. Like you pointed out earlier, Merrill easily had first round talent. Some character issues and poor interviews made him fall to the second round.

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I don't agree with that reasoning, Daniel. You have a guy like Angelo Esposito who was basically a throw in on the Hossa to Pitt deal. A year or two later, it was clear he was not going to make the NHL. The point I'm trying to make is that some prospects fizzle out and some get better with time. Obviously this is common knowledge, but Merrill's talent was never a question. Like you pointed out earlier, Merrill easily had first round talent. Some character issues and poor interviews made him fall to the second round.

 

With a few exceptions, all prospects have risks.  I get it.  It's just a matter of how much you trust your scouts and what kind of risks you can afford to take at any particular time. 

 

I'm not qualified to assess whether trading Merrill for any particular prospect/draft pick is a good idea or not, other than for purposes of having a discussion with other Devils' fans.  So far as I know, Lou hasn't called me to get my views on the matter.  I can only go on what I've heard that this draft is supposed to be really deep.  It could be like 2003, where, if you had two first round picks where the Devils might realisitcally end up with some kind of trade, you could end up with something approximating Vanek (yes Tri I know Vanek was drafted 5, but you get the point) and Parise.  In the meantime, Merrill might end up being a second pairing defenseman, and Severson turns out to be better player anyway. That's the kind of scenario where you end up being a perennial Cup contender.  Or you could end up with Bernier and Zherdev, with Merrill turning out to be as good as Suter, and you're back to the drawing board in two years. 

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I don't think we have enough to give up to move down to 7th.  We'll get a very decent prospect @ 9 .  Unless Lou can get us another 2nd/3rd rounder w/ say Jets/ or Jackets or Yotes.  Lou's past comments have been the value many gm's put on specific players making the trade stupid. 

I think the thought process might be after the 1st 6 picks, it's six of one half dozen of the other.

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I don't think we have enough to give up to move down to 7th.  We'll get a very decent prospect @ 9 .  Unless Lou can get us another 2nd/3rd rounder w/ say Jets/ or Jackets or Yotes.  Lou's past comments have been the value many gm's put on specific players making the trade stupid. 

I think the thought process might be after the 1st 6 picks, it's six of one half dozen of the other.

Agree. That's why I feel like if we don't see someone on the board we really wanted when it gets to us, I wouldn't be surprised to see us trade down to 15-18 and draft Lazar, if we can pick up another high 2nd rd pick for that, I'd be pretty happy.

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I could see a team wanting to trade up to the #9 hole to grab one of the defenesemen.  June 30th is going to be an exciting day.  I don't think the Devils are going to draft #9.  Just a feeling.  I don't have any thing to back it up.  I just think Lou will move the pick at a chance at landing another pick along with the 1st a few slots later.

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I could see a team wanting to trade up to the #9 hole to grab one of the defenesemen. June 30th is going to be an exciting day. I don't think the Devils are going to draft #9. Just a feeling. I don't have any thing to back it up. I just think Lou will move the pick at a chance at landing another pick along with the 1st a few slots later.

I do not want to see that happen. I understand it's a deep draft but te talent is so strong in the top 10 I don't wanna miss out.

Unless of course all the forwards as e talked about are gone by 9

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