Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0
'7'

Devils trade #9 pick in 2013 Draft to Vancouver for Cory Schneider

342 posts in this topic

interesting article about goalie situation in NJ and Schneider's potential in NJ 

 

 

http://espn.go.com/fantasy/hockey/story/_/id/9444996/cory-schneider-roberto-luongo-jonathan-berner-fantasy-value-trade-analysis

 

Tri has discussed this quite a bit (and posted this link: http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/7/3/shot-quality-matters-but-how-much), but I don't think you can expect Schneider's numbers to jump at all. 

 

The Devils gave up fewer shots than every team in the league last year, but probably gave up the same amount of scoring chances in proportion to total shots as most other teams.  And as Tri also mentioned the other day, we have hundreds of examples that show save percentage doesn't change much when a goalie changes teams.

 

I should add that the Devils system is a perfect match for a great goalie like Schneider. The Devils should be one of the top defensive teams next season in GA, and Schneider should be blanking a lot of teams.

Edited by devilsrule33

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tri has discussed this quite a bit (and posted this link: http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/7/3/shot-quality-matters-but-how-much), but I don't think you can expect Schneider's numbers to jump at all. 

 

The Devils gave up fewer shots than every team in the league last year, but probably gave up the same amount of scoring chances in proportion to total shots as most other teams.  And as Tri also mentioned the other day, we have hundreds of examples that show save percentage doesn't change much when a goalie changes teams.

 

I should add that the Devils system is a perfect match for a great goalie like Schneider. The Devils should be one of the top defensive teams next season in GA, and Schneider should be blanking a lot of teams.

 

A few weaknesses with this argument.  What I've noticed gets lost in the Devils shots against shuffle is that the folks that tend to feel it is a very useful stat tend to ignore the theory that shots are undercounted at Devils home games.  Naturally, this would tend to decrease the save percentage for Devils goalies, whoever they may be.

 

Also, what I've read anyway, is that Schneider is not great handling the puck, while obviously Brodeur is, and Hedberg has a reputation for being good with the puck too.  You would think anyway that a goalie that can handle the puck will end up facing fewer shots overall, but a greater percentage of those shots will be of higher quality.  Just a theory though.

 

Like I said, this year will go a long way to resolving the chicken/egg debate when it comes to save percentage.  We know Schneider has proven to be a very good goalie.  We'll see if it turns out that Brodeur has been better in the past couple of years than some have given him credit for.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Like I said, this year will go a long way to resolving the chicken/egg debate when it comes to save percentage. 

 

No it won't.  It will just be another single instance to go along with many other instances.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No it won't.  It will just be another single instance to go along with many other instances.

 

It doesn't help when you ignore the substance of the argument. 

 

But in any event, if you're right, I'll freely admit it.  Somehow I don't think you will.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It doesn't help when you ignore the substance of the argument. 

 

But in any event, if you're right, I'll freely admit it.  Somehow I don't think you will.

 

The substance is that changing teams doesn't drastically effect a goalies save percentage, correct?

 

If so, there are tons of goalies that have changed teams, Schneider is just another in a long line of those.  Why is his change more telling than all the other goalies?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No it won't.  It will just be another single instance to go along with many other instances.

 

Exactly what I was thinking, but Daniel take a look at some cases around the NHL like I did when Tri originally brought this point up. Check out Osgood's entire career where his numbers in NY and St Louis were right on par with the numbers he had with the great Detroit Red Wings. Look at goalies who played on expansion teams like Dunham, Tugnutt, Denis and Fernandez, and compare their numbers before, after and during. Look at some of the best goalies to play the game like Hasek, Belfour and  Joseph, and see that none of them had better save percentages when they were on the better teams.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The substance is that changing teams doesn't drastically effect a goalies save percentage, correct?

 

If so, there are tons of goalies that have changed teams, Schneider is just another in a long line of those.  Why is his change more telling than all the other goalies?

 

Like I said, there's the issue of shots being undercounted at Devils home games.  There are also attributes that Brodeur has -- puck handling -- that might result in fewer shots against, but a higher ratio of quality shots against versus total shots.

 

We will see.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The substance is that changing teams doesn't drastically effect a goalies save percentage, correct?

 

If so, there are tons of goalies that have changed teams, Schneider is just another in a long line of those.  Why is his change more telling than all the other goalies?

 

The only thing this will show is how good Schneider is since he hasn't played extensively. Theoretically he could've been playing above his talent or NJ's undercounting of shots will hurt him a lot, but worst case he's something like a .915-20 goalie I guess. He's not gonna turn into Brodeur's .901 or whatever barring something ridiculous

Edited by DH26

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tri has discussed this quite a bit (and posted this link: http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/7/3/shot-quality-matters-but-how-much), but I don't think you can expect Schneider's numbers to jump at all. 

 

The Devils gave up fewer shots than every team in the league last year, but probably gave up the same amount of scoring chances in proportion to total shots as most other teams.  And as Tri also mentioned the other day, we have hundreds of examples that show save percentage doesn't change much when a goalie changes teams.

 

I should add that the Devils system is a perfect match for a great goalie like Schneider. The Devils should be one of the top defensive teams next season in GA, and Schneider should be blanking a lot of teams.

 

well let's hope so cause we're certainly not gonna score a lot of goals.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I usually tend to ignore home save percentage and only use road splits. Although I think the magic number for adjusting our home save percentage is something like .03-.05

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Exactly what I was thinking, but Daniel take a look at some cases around the NHL like I did when Tri originally brought this point up. Check out Osgood's entire career where his numbers in NY and St Louis were right on par with the numbers he had with the great Detroit Red Wings. Look at goalies who played on expansion teams like Dunham, Tugnutt, Denis and Fernandez, and compare their numbers before, after and during. Look at some of the best goalies to play the game like Hasek, Belfour and  Joseph, and see that none of them had better save percentages when they were on the better teams.

 

And for all of those goalies, I'll give you a bunch whose save percentages have fluctuated significantly between teams.  Theodore; Giguere; Bryzgalov; Mike Smith; Ray Emery; Irbe and that's just a few that come to mind.

 

You should count the misses as much as you do your hits.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Like I said, there's the issue of shots being undercounted at Devils home games.  There are also attributes that Brodeur has -- puck handling -- that might result in fewer shots against, but a higher ratio of quality shots against versus total shots.

 

We will see.

 

I doubt they're so severely undercounted that Brodeur's .901 would have been THAT much better with another team's shot counters.

 

Look, I've always been and always will be a Brodeur defender and not a detractor, but his GAA was definitely propped up by the Devils' ability to keep shots and chances down. 

 

I'll go ahead and predict that Schneider will probably be .015-.020 or better than Brodeur next season...admittedly not a bold prediction, but this is a way of saying that if Schneider is at all hurt by Devils' shot-counters undercounting like Brodeur might be, the save% differential between the two goalies will remain intact.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I doubt they're so severely undercounted that Brodeur's .901 would have been THAT much better with another team's shot counters.

 

Look, I've always been and always will be a Brodeur defender and not a detractor, but his GAA was definitely propped up by the Devils' ability to keep shots and chances down. 

 

I'll go ahead and predict that Schneider will probably be .015-.020 or better than Brodeur next season...admittedly not a bold prediction, but this is a way of saying that if Schneider is at all hurt by Devils' shot-counters undercounting like Brodeur might be, the save% differential between the two goalies will remain intact.

 

Do we know if Vancouver's arena over or undercounted shots? I'd imagine if anything it's overcounting since he had the best SV% in the league or whatever over the last couple years so maybe that was artificially inflated a little though Luongo's was only above .920 two times I think in VAN

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I doubt they're so severely undercounted that Brodeur's .901 would have been THAT much better with another team's shot counters.

 

Look, I've always been and always will be a Brodeur defender and not a detractor, but his GAA was definitely propped up by the Devils' ability to keep shots and chances down. 

 

I'll go ahead and predict that Schneider will probably be .015-.020 or better than Brodeur next season...admittedly not a bold prediction, but this is a way of saying that if Schneider is at all hurt by Devils' shot-counters undercounting like Brodeur might be, the save% differential between the two goalies will remain intact.

 

I'm not a reflexive Marty defender or detractor and don't consider myself reflexively anti-save percentage, although I suppose I come off that way sometimes, which I shouldn't do. 

 

There's this tendency though to look for magic formulas that will tell you all about how good or bad a particular player is.  Those things can be useful indicators of performance.  But useful does not mean the end all be all. 

 

Also, re Schneider's save percentage.  He's clearly a better goalie now than Marty is, or anyone would be shocked if their save percentages were the same, when they're playing for the same team.  The interesting stats will be, the difference between Schneider's save percentage in Vancouver versus in NJ, and the difference between Marty and Schneider's goals against, assuming they play roughly equal time.  The first will show whether there is something unique to playing for the Devils that results in lower save percentages, and the second might show whether there's something unique about Marty that results in a lower save percentage, but a solid goals against average.

 

The thing about polarization that Marty tends to bring out in people is the fact that he's played for the same team his entire career and, except for the end of his career, there hasn't been a backup that you can really compare him to, maybe in 2008-2009, but that's about it. 

Edited by Daniel

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And for all of those goalies, I'll give you a bunch whose save percentages have fluctuated significantly between teams.  Theodore; Giguere; Bryzgalov; Mike Smith; Ray Emery; Irbe and that's just a few that come to mind.

 

You should count the misses as much as you do your hits.

 

There are goalies whose save percentages have fluctuated significantly without changing teams.  Like Giguere, Theodore, and so forth.  The trouble is you are counting this player's best year as representative when they have had lots of subpar years for the very teams you're claiming might've boosted their percentage.  Year to year save percentage fluctuations are much greater than team effects (barring enormous jumps in PKs against, etc.).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Do we know if Vancouver's arena over or undercounted shots? I'd imagine if anything it's overcounting since he had the best SV% in the league or whatever over the last couple years so maybe that was artificially inflated a little though Luongo's was only above .920 two times I think in VAN

 

As of 2010, this guy claims that Vancouver undercounts, but not as much as NJ

 

http://objectivenhl.blogspot.com/2010/03/shot-recording-bias-part-n.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There are goalies whose save percentages have fluctuated significantly without changing teams.  Like Giguere, Theodore, and so forth.  The trouble is you are counting this player's best year as representative when they have had lots of subpar years for the very teams you're claiming might've boosted their percentage.  Year to year save percentage fluctuations are much greater than team effects (barring enormous jumps in PKs against, etc.).

 

You can't say that about Mike Smith or Bryzgalov, especially Brzygalov.

 

Jose Theodore is another one, at least from the eyeball test.  His save percentage got worse when he went from Monreal to Colorado, and then improved after that. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And for all of those goalies, I'll give you a bunch whose save percentages have fluctuated significantly between teams.  Theodore; Giguere; Bryzgalov; Mike Smith; Ray Emery; Irbe and that's just a few that come to mind.

 

You should count the misses as much as you do your hits.

 

How has Giguere's fluctuated significantly? He has posted almost identical save percentage numbers with bad Leafs and Avalanche teams as he had with the 2006-2007 Cup team with the Ducks that had two HOF defensemen. Ray Emery has put up better save percentage numbers with the Flyers, Ducks and Blackhawks then he did in 2/3 seasons he had with the (class of the East) Senators.

 

As Tri just mentioned, goalies like Bryzgalov and Theodore have had incredible highs and lows with the same team. Theodore went from .917 save percentage in 2012 with the Panthers to an .893 save percentage in 2013 and even worse swings on Montreal.

 

You can't say that about Mike Smith or Bryzgalov, especially Brzygalov.

 

Jose Theodore is another one, at least from the eyeball test.  His save percentage got worse when he went from Monreal to Colorado, and then improved after that. 

 

Not true at all. His numbers collapsed in Montreal and got better each season in Colorado.

Edited by devilsrule33

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How has Giguere's fluctuated significantly? He has posted almost identical save percentage numbers with bad Leafs and Avalanche teams as he had with the 2006-2007 Cup team with the Ducks that had two HOF defensemen. Ray Emery has put up better save percentage numbers with the Flyers, Ducks and Blackhawks then he did in 2/3 seasons he had with the (class of the East) Senators.

 

As Tri just mentioned, goalies like Bryzgalov and Theodore have had incredible highs and lows with the same team. Theodore went from .917 save percentage in 2012 with the Panthers to an .893 save percentage in 2013 and even worse swings on Montreal.

 

Theodore played 15 games this year as opposed to 53 the previous year, and Florida was just awful this year. 

 

Bryz was .920 in 3/4 years with Phoenix, and .900 and .909 with the Flyers and .907 and .911 in his two years in Anaheim when he played a significant amount of games.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

You can't say that about Mike Smith or Bryzgalov, especially Brzygalov.

 

Mike Smith has one year of above-average goaltending to his name.  Why are we ascribing this to the team and not to random fluctuations?   

 

Bryzgalov might just be getting old.  Save percentages in general should be lower on the Flyers because of the number of power plays they give up.

 

 

 

Jose Theodore is another one, at least from the eyeball test.  His save percentage got worse when he went from Monreal to Colorado, and then improved after that.

 

Theodore got dealt when save percentages league-wide were in the toilet because of all the power plays.  Nabokov has a similar valley and he didn't go anywhere.

 

EDIT:  oh lord, you're comparing save percentages straight up from 2005-06 to ones in 2012-13?  good luck with that.

Edited by Triumph

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And btw, why is save percentage between years with the same team and save percentage between different teams a distinction with a difference?  Often the only difference is the laundry.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And btw, why is save percentage between years with the same team and save percentage between different teams a distinction with a difference?  Often the only difference is the laundry.

 

I can't see any way to read this except as exactly what me and 731 are arguing.

 

Schneider isn't a test case.  He's almost certainly gotten some luck in his NHL career to date.  I expect him to post around a .920 SV% next year, but he could easily be +/- .1 or even .2 of that.

Edited by Triumph

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can't see any way to read this except as exactly what me and 731 are arguing.

 

Schneider isn't a test case.  He's almost certainly gotten some luck in his NHL career to date.  I expect him to post around a .920 SV% next year, but he could easily be +/- .1 or even .2 of that.

 

I'll grant you that powerplays against ought to significantly affect save percentage.  I don't know if someone's done an even strength save percentage analysis between goalies across different teams.

 

Re Schneider, if it turns out he and Marty play roughly the same number of games this year -- i.e. the sample sizes for both are large enough -- I'm more curious to see what the goals against differential between he and Marty turns out to be. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'll grant you that powerplays against ought to significantly affect save percentage.  I don't know if someone's done an even strength save percentage analysis between goalies across different teams.

 

Re Schneider, if it turns out he and Marty play roughly the same number of games this year -- i.e. the sample sizes for both are large enough -- I'm more curious to see what the goals against differential between he and Marty turns out to be. 

 

We have enough data on Brodeur's backups to know how much he suppresses shots against.  

 

This article is actually not very good, I'd be curious to run the numbers for the last 5 years, as the Devils have used a lot of backups:  http://brodeurisafraud.blogspot.com/2008/10/estimating-brodeurs-shot-prevention.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0