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ghdi

Kovy to Russian media: "Stanley Cup remains my target."

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Well I'd rather see the team be as good as possible rather than continue to be butthurt about him leaving. It's not fair to say he cost the Devils those picks and $3 million, it's not like they knew they would have to pay that in order to sign him. Actually that wasn't even for signing him since the league voided that contract anyway. That punishment is so ridiculous the only people you can point the finger at is the NHL itself.

Kovalchuk had to get his $90 million over 10 years or he was bolting to the KHL THEN. If he was such an innocent they wouldn't have even had an issue with the second contract to the point where it was delayed another week.

Good team? We missed the playoffs two out of his three full years and were Zajac and Henrique OT goals against an inferior team away from having the Kovalchuk era be a total black mark. And that was BEFORE he pulled this, you think any of those guys would ever accept him back after he up and quit on them?

The Rags were the regular season eastern conference champs and had the best goalie in the league, and we beat them in six games. Describing that as "almost losing to an inferior team" makes zero sense.

The disaster that was the first year was clearly about the coach, as is evident from the second half turn around. Not to mention the fact that the team's other star player missed basically the entire season.

He missed about a quarter of last season to injury, and the team fell out of contention at the very time he wasn't in the lineup.

All in all, Kovalchuk was an excellent Devil, and made the team better. Whether it was worth the cost in the long run remains to be seen.

EDIT: Misread what you were saying about Henrique OT goal. Overall though, what I wrote still stands.

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Edited by Daniel

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If you're saying that you don't think he was worth the cap hit in the years he was here, i.e. not accounting for what he would have been paid down the road, you're clearly wrong. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

 

I'm 'clearly wrong'?  Go ahead and compare Kovalchuk's scoring rates with other top players.  I don't think you'll be very impressed.  Now that isn't to say he wouldn't've been worth that cap hit in the future - he almost certainly would have even though his game is likely on the decline, with the cap going up faster than that would happen.  But Kovalchuk's bulk stats give an awfully rosy picture for a guy who was playing 2/5ths of the game and scoring at the rate a 2nd or 3rd line player would.

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The Rags were the regular season eastern conference champs and had the best goalie in the league, and we beat them in six games. Describing that as "almost losing to an inferior team" makes zero sense. The disaster that was the first year was clearly about the coach, as is evident from the second half turn around. Not to mention the fact that the team's other star player missed basically the entire season. He missed about a quarter of last season to injury, and the team fell out of contention at the very time he wasn't in the lineup. All in all, Kovalchuk was an excellent Devil, and made the team better. Whether it was worth the cost in the long run remains to be seen. EDIT: Misread what you were saying about Henrique OT goal. Overall though, what I wrote still stands. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

 

I was referring to Florida.  They were one goal away - twice - from having exactly zero playoff series wins and two seasons out of the playoffs in Kovalchuk's three years.  No, the first half of 2010 wasn't his fault per se but he sure didn't do anything to help the situation either - sulking around, not playing well and missing team meetings.  Last year he played like his heart was still in Russia.

 

So he's softening the blow for when he leaves there too? What a dick

 

He does have the 'I've got to say the right thing to please everyone all the time' disease, that's why people believed he was sincere when he was here.

Edited by NJDevs4978

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I mean, saying the Devils were one goal away from being out of the playoffs is reductive.  Margins for error in the playoffs are ridiculously low - in the last 3 years, a team that went to 7 games and OT in Round 1 made it to the Cup finals.

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If you're saying that you don't think he was worth the cap hit in the years he was here, i.e. not accounting for what he would have been paid down the road, you're clearly wrong. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

I'm 'clearly wrong'? Go ahead and compare Kovalchuk's scoring rates with other top players. I don't think you'll be very impressed. Now that isn't to say he wouldn't've been worth that cap hit in the future - he almost certainly would have even though his game is likely on the decline, with the cap going up faster than that would happen. But Kovalchuk's bulk stats give an awfully rosy picture for a guy who was playing 2/5ths of the game and scoring at the rate a 2nd or 3rd line player would.

Mike Ribiero and Chris Kunitz were far ahead of Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Claude Giroux and Tavares.

Hmmm, maybe this particular stat that's supposed to prove everything isn't all that telling.

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I mean, saying the Devils were one goal away from being out of the playoffs is reductive.  Margins for error in the playoffs are ridiculously low - in the last 3 years, a team that went to 7 games and OT in Round 1 made it to the Cup finals.

 

Just like the Blackhawks were one goal away from being eliminated by Detroit in rd 2 last year (well 2 if you count Walkom's worst-call-of-the-century job)

 

Boston was one goal away from not getting past the awful Toronna Maple Leafs. It happens 

Edited by DH26

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Mike Ribiero and Chris Kunitz were far ahead of Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Claude Giroux and Tavares. Hmmm, maybe this particular stat that's supposed to prove everything isn't all that telling. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

 

Classic Daniel argument technique - take one example, think it proves the rule.  Yes, obviously this is not a way to rank players, but it's a way of getting a general sense of how good a player is at scoring compared to his peers.

 

Points/60 rate last 3 years (ES 5 on 5):  173rd out of 327

Goals/60 rate last 3 years (ES):  128th out of 327

Points/60 rate last 3 years (PP):  114th out of 173

Goals/60 rate last 3 years (PP):  135th out of 173

Points/60 rate last 3 years (SH):  1st out of 232

Goals/60 rate last 3 years (SH):  1st out of 232

 

Even if we just want to go raw points, Kovalchuk was 67th out of 327 at ES 5 on 5, 45th in goals.  Explain to me again how he is worth a 6.6M cap hit when we compare him against players also on UFA deals around that price range (Heatley, Gaborik, Thornton, Marleau, M. Koivu, Datsyuk, B. Richards, Sedins, Zetterberg, Cammalleri).  We know he stinks at driving play - if anything, the puck goes backwards slightly when Kovalchuk is on the ice.  

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Mike Ribiero and Chris Kunitz were far ahead of Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Claude Giroux and Tavares. Hmmm, maybe this particular stat that's supposed to prove everything isn't all that telling. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

Classic Daniel argument technique - take one example, think it proves the rule. Yes, obviously this is not a way to rank players, but it's a way of getting a general sense of how good a player is at scoring compared to his peers.

Points/60 rate last 3 years (ES 5 on 5): 173rd out of 327

Goals/60 rate last 3 years (ES): 128th out of 327

Points/60 rate last 3 years (PP): 114th out of 173

Goals/60 rate last 3 years (PP): 135th out of 173

Points/60 rate last 3 years (SH): 1st out of 232

Goals/60 rate last 3 years (SH): 1st out of 232

Even if we just want to go raw points, Kovalchuk was 67th out of 327 at ES 5 on 5, 45th in goals. Explain to me again how he is worth a 6.6M cap hit when we compare him against players also on UFA deals around that price range (Heatley, Gaborik, Thornton, Marleau, M. Koivu, Datsyuk, B. Richards, Sedins, Zetterberg, Cammalleri). We know he stinks at driving play - if anything, the puck goes backwards slightly when Kovalchuk is on the ice.

The Classic Tri technique, find a player you want to make some bold contrarian statement about, use some esoteric stat that shows that he doesn't rank very high, get confronted by other players that are very good that don't rank too high, or players we know arent that great who are ranked relatively high, and then admit it only gives one a "general sense" of how good someone is, but nevertheless, still proves my point.

He was worth a 6.6 million cap hit, because you could count on him to score 35+ goals per 82 games, he was a point a game player, logs a lot of ice time, plays very well short handed.

If he stinks at some kind of metric you made up, well it's an interesting observation, so far as it goes.

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Kovalchuk was only truly worth his cap hit one of the three years, which is pretty freaking sad considering the cap number was supposed to be the best thing about the contract :P

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The Classic Tri technique, find a player you want to make some bold contrarian statement about, use some esoteric stat that shows that he doesn't rank very high, get confronted by other players that are very good that don't rank too high, or players we know arent that great who are ranked relatively high, and then admit it only gives one a "general sense" of how good someone is, but nevertheless, still proves my point.

 

I'm not trying to make some bold contrarian statement, and this isn't an esoteric stat.

 

He was worth a 6.6 million cap hit, because you could count on him to score 35+ goals per 82 games

 

And yet as a Devil he averaged 32.8 goals per 82 - but he could be counted on to score 35+.

 

he was a point a game player

 

Again, no he wasn't, or even particularly close.  He was a .9 points per game player in 222 games - he was 21 short of being a point a game player.  

 

logs a lot of ice time

 

And this is what you're missing.  Yes, there is value to this, but it diminishes the power of his bulk stats because you don't replace Kovalchuk's ice time with thin air - another player would play his minutes, and another player would score some goals. Yeah, Kovalchuk shouldn't lead in points/60 on the PP because he plays with 2nd units and other guys don't, because he's double-shifting.  But he's not even close to best in the league in total points on the PP.  He got the most PP time of anybody and was 24th in points.

 

These situations I think Kovalchuk is a fabulous player:  5 on 3 PP, 4 on 5 SH, 4 on 4.  I don't think I'd take anyone over him on the 5 on 3 PP (even Ovechkin or Stamkos), if you need offense short-handed he's your man, and 4 on 4 I think he's very effective.  But he's average at best 5 on 5 and above-average 5 on 4, and this isn't enough to pay a guy top dollars. 

 

Like 4978 said, he was worth it in one year, not worth it in 2 other years.

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A 35 year old Kovalchuk who quit on the organization and wouldn't have played in the NHL for around half a decade doesn't seem too appealing to me. I'd rather improve the team at that point down the road with NHL free agents or prospect call ups. I'm sure there will be some better options than an old Kovalchuk.

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Kovalchuk wasn't worth his cap hit when he was here. What would someone have to pay him to get him to come to the NHL? More than he is worth, certainly.

Hahaha COME ON how much you think is a fair cap hit for a first overall pick, a guy who plays near 30 min a night, lead the forwards in the league in ice time, top 2 one timer and release in the league,lead the team in scoring, lead in shootouts, run the whole PP, one of the big time scorer ar the top of the last decade, huge part of our recent PK success... Seriously Tri come on lol

Now i bet youre gonna throw shooting % at me and possession numbers and sh!t? I wont even bother reading it you are 100% wrong.

Edited by SterioDesign

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for a first overall pick

 

Who cares, has no bearing on how valuable he is 9 years after he's picked

 

a guy who plays near 30 min a night

 

Like Daniel, you're not very good with numbers.  He played over 24 minutes per game in 2 seasons with NJ, and over 22 minutes in one season.

 

lead the forwards in the league in ice time

 

This has value, but not very much, because Kovalchuk just doesn't do a lot 5 on 5.  In Atlanta he and his line scored a ton and got scored on a ton.  In NJ his line didn't score that much and didn't get scored on that much.  Why is this valuable?  It's great if the guy were even above average 5 on 5, but he wasn't.

 

top 2 one timer and release in the league

 

And yet neither the bulk goal scoring and goal scoring rate aren't top 2.

 

lead the team in scoring

 

And he plays the most ice time.  You can't have it both ways.  The guy plays both ends of the PP, giant minutes at ES, and tended to be started in the offensive zone more than most forwards on the team - if he's not leading the team in points, something is hugely wrong. 

 

lead in shootouts

 

Kovalchuk over his career was not a good shootout player and the Devils should not have expected any value to come from him in the shootout.  But I'll agree that this was probably worth a huge amount in 2011-12.

 

run the whole PP

 

And never in his career run a great one.  And be on the ice for a lot of shorthanded goals, which hurt his worth as a PP player.

 

one of the big time scorer ar the top of the last decade

 

And again, he played by far the most minutes of any forward.

 

huge part of our recent PK success

 

Kovalchuk was fantastic as a penalty killer but he played 160 minutes on the PK and was seldom on the first unit.

 

Now i bet youre gonna throw shooting % at me and possession numbers and sh!t? I wont even bother reading it you are 100% wrong.

 

Not one citation of shooting % or possession numbers in this post.  I can just go by goals - Kovalchuk was -7 in the last 6 years at 5 on 5 in non-empty net situations.  How is this a great player?   Show me the greatness.

 

Anyway, I'm being a bit rhetorical here because on the whole, Kovalchuk's cap hit to the Devils was around $19.8M and his worth was probably right around there, albeit a bit below - I had forgotten about the shootout success which was probably worth 1-2 points in the standings.  But if you think his value was way above that, you're just not seeing what Kovalchuk wasn't doing.  

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Kovalchuk was only truly worth his cap hit one of the three years, which is pretty freaking sad considering the cap number was supposed to be the best thing about the contract :P

Last year was a quirk because of the lockout and his injury. And his first full year, he did quite well, as did the team, after MacLean was gone. No one on the team was worth their cap hit while MacLean was the coach.

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Last year was a quirk because of the lockout and his injury. And his first full year, he did quite well, as did the team, after MacLean was gone. No one on the team was worth their cap hit while MacLean was the coach.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

He did well after Jmac left because pucks finally started going in. I don't think his shot rate necessarily increased leaps and bounds but I will say one thing: Kovalchuk in January, February and March of 2011 was the most entertaining player I've ever seen play

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A 35 year old Kovalchuk who quit on the organization and wouldn't have played in the NHL for around half a decade doesn't seem too appealing to me. I'd rather improve the team at that point down the road with NHL free agents or prospect call ups. I'm sure there will be some better options than an old Kovalchuk.

Then there's the conspiracy theory that Lou and Kovy understood he would leave, just as the money was about to escalate. He plays in Russia for a few years, comes back and renegotiates a new more reasonable contract with no cap recapture consequences.

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Last year was a quirk because of the lockout and his injury. And his first full year, he did quite well, as did the team, after MacLean was gone. No one on the team was worth their cap hit while MacLean was the coach. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

 

Kovalchuk was exactly even under Jacques Lemaire at even strength (no empty net goals) in 2010-11.  I agree with Mantzas that that was tremendously fun to watch, but fantastic play?  Eh.

Edited by Triumph

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The Classic Tri technique, find a player you want to make some bold contrarian statement about, use some esoteric stat that shows that he doesn't rank very high, get confronted by other players that are very good that don't rank too high, or players we know arent that great who are ranked relatively high, and then admit it only gives one a "general sense" of how good someone is, but nevertheless, still proves my point. I'm not trying to make some bold contrarian statement, and this isn't an esoteric stat. He was worth a 6.6 million cap hit, because you could count on him to score 35+ goals per 82 games And yet as a Devil he averaged 32.8 goals per 82 - but he could be counted on to score 35+. he was a point a game player Again, no he wasn't, or even particularly close. He was a .9 points per game player in 222 games - he was 21 short of being a point a game player. logs a lot of ice time And this is what you're missing. Yes, there is value to this, but it diminishes the power of his bulk stats because you don't replace Kovalchuk's ice time with thin air - another player would play his minutes, and another player would score some goals. Yeah, Kovalchuk shouldn't lead in points/60 on the PP because he plays with 2nd units and other guys don't, because he's double-shifting. But he's not even close to best in the league in total points on the PP. He got the most PP time of anybody and was 24th in points. These situations I think Kovalchuk is a fabulous player: 5 on 3 PP, 4 on 5 SH, 4 on 4. I don't think I'd take anyone over him on the 5 on 3 PP (even Ovechkin or Stamkos), if you need offense short-handed he's your man, and 4 on 4 I think he's very effective. But he's average at best 5 on 5 and above-average 5 on 4, and this isn't enough to pay a guy top dollars. Like 4978 said, he was worth it in one year, not worth it in 2 other years.
The other potential problem with doing an ice time/points analysis for some players is that it doesn't account for the decline in scoring some players get when they're playing with fourth line players. IIRC, Kovy in 2012 would get ice time pretty often with Carter and Bernier, or I should say, often enough that it would skew that figure. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD
Last year was a quirk because of the lockout and his injury. And his first full year, he did quite well, as did the team, after MacLean was gone. No one on the team was worth their cap hit while MacLean was the coach. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD Kovalchuk was exactly even under Jacques Lemaire at even strength (no empty net goals) in 2010-11. I agree with Mantzas that that was tremendously fun to watch, but fantastic play? Eh.
Exactly even what?Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

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Kovalchuk wasn't worth his cap hit when he was here.  What would someone have to pay him to get him to come to the NHL?  More than he is worth, certainly.

Well obviously I'm not saying I'd take him back at any cap hit.  My point was that if he will come back at a reasonable cap hit, I'm not going to be upset about it just because he left the team in the past.

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Don't allow Putin to touch the Stanley cup or it might come true.

 

awesome post

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The other potential problem with doing an ice time/points analysis for some players is that it doesn't account for the decline in scoring some players get when they're playing with fourth line players. IIRC, Kovy in 2012 would get ice time pretty often with Carter and Bernier, or I should say, often enough that it would skew that figure.

 

Okay, great.  Does it account for why he's near the middle of the pack in the NHL instead of being closer to the top?  I don't think so.  Trim off all those minutes and goals (it can be done) and the result still isn't great.

 

 

Exactly even what?

 

Even in goals for/against, basically even in shots for/against, and with a 1000 PDO.

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Who cares, has no bearing on how valuable he is 9 years after he's picked

 

 

 

 

Like Daniel, you're not very good with numbers.  He played over 24 minutes per game in 2 seasons with NJ, and over 22 minutes in one season.

 

 

 

 

This has value, but not very much, because Kovalchuk just doesn't do a lot 5 on 5.  In Atlanta he and his line scored a ton and got scored on a ton.  In NJ his line didn't score that much and didn't get scored on that much.  Why is this valuable?  It's great if the guy were even above average 5 on 5, but he wasn't.

 

 

 

 

And yet neither the bulk goal scoring and goal scoring rate aren't top 2.

 

 

 

 

And he plays the most ice time.  You can't have it both ways.  The guy plays both ends of the PP, giant minutes at ES, and tended to be started in the offensive zone more than most forwards on the team - if he's not leading the team in points, something is hugely wrong. 

 

 

 

 

Kovalchuk over his career was not a good shootout player and the Devils should not have expected any value to come from him in the shootout.  But I'll agree that this was probably worth a huge amount in 2011-12.

 

 

 

 

And never in his career run a great one.  And be on the ice for a lot of shorthanded goals, which hurt his worth as a PP player.

 

 

 

 

And again, he played by far the most minutes of any forward.

 

 

 

 

Kovalchuk was fantastic as a penalty killer but he played 160 minutes on the PK and was seldom on the first unit.

 

 

 

 

Not one citation of shooting % or possession numbers in this post.  I can just go by goals - Kovalchuk was -7 in the last 6 years at 5 on 5 in non-empty net situations.  How is this a great player?   Show me the greatness.

 

Anyway, I'm being a bit rhetorical here because on the whole, Kovalchuk's cap hit to the Devils was around $19.8M and his worth was probably right around there, albeit a bit below - I had forgotten about the shootout success which was probably worth 1-2 points in the standings.  But if you think his value was way above that, you're just not seeing what Kovalchuk wasn't doing.  

 

SD, this pretty much sums up Kovy.  He was capable of great and dynamic moments, but wasn't really great overall.  In an odd way, if he hadn't suddenly become almost automatic in the shootout for a while, his shortcomings might have been brought up more.  His 2011-2012 numbers were definitely eye-friendly, but when picked apart, even that year isn't quite as good as it looked.   

 

I agree with Tri...overall the Devils got reasonably close to the value of Kovy's 1st three seasons (considering how these mega-deals can go, that's not bad), but I don't think they were going to get that kind of "almost" value in the seasons to come, which is why I'm not at all sorry that he's gone.  As for the original topic of this thread...I don't care about Kovy anymore, what he says, what he does...he's no longer a part of the Devils.  If he ever comes back to the NHL and the Devils play against him, I'll think about him then...but he simply doesn't exist to me as anything more than a past Devil.   

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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I wonder how his back's going to be when he's eligible to return to the NHL (aka, 5 years from now, assuming Lou hasn't gone completely soft and brings him back before then).  

 

I thought he lost a step after the playoffs two years ago - ya gotta wonder if back injuries like his ever fully heal.

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I wonder how his back's going to be when he's eligible to return to the NHL (aka, 5 years from now, assuming Lou hasn't gone completely soft and brings him back before then).  

 

I thought he lost a step after the playoffs two years ago - ya gotta wonder if back injuries like his ever fully heal.

 

From what I've heard -- secondhand, but the original source is someone who ought to know, so take it for what it's worth -- was that his back injury in 2012 was a sciatic nerve issue.  I'm not a doctor, so I couldn't tell you if this is a degenerative back condition, similar to what Mario Lemieux had to the point that he couldn't tie his own skates, or if it eventually heals with time, like a separated sholder does.  As I seem to recall, it was revealed after the playoffs that, after game 1 of the Flyers series, he had a numbing agent injected, and played very well the rest of that series, and he played physically in the Rangers series, to the point that taking Del Zotto hard into the boards, freed up the puck for the Carter game winning goal in game 5.  Since I was at games 1 and 2 for the finals, it was hard for me to tell whether it looked like he was playing slow during those games, but you could definitely tell that he was playing at most at 60 percent by game 3.

 

From afar anyway, it didn't seem to affect his game last season. 

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