Fantastic News! Devils predicted to finish near the bottom

[thelastonealive]

weren't the devils predicted to be close to last in '11-'12?

 

english majors shouldn't write sport columns

 

HEY! Lay off us English majors, we have life hard enough as it is - spending all that money on a very expensive piece of paper for no good reason!

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

If the Devils hadn't gotten Schneider, then I could definitely see the potential for a blow-up type season...but a rag like SI isn't going to do a whole lot of research on each team anyway...the writer probably took a quick look at the arrivals and departures, immediately focused on Kovy leaving, and the signing of Jagr (because he's the "biggest" and best-known name), and made his prediction accordingly. 

 

If someone wants to predict the Devils are going to finish second-to-last in their conference, fine...but tell the whole story, and support the prediction with fleshed-out ideas.  Don't just completely leave out the acquisition of Schneider (clearly a VERY big deal) or guys like Ryder and Clowe.  Don't make it sound like the only move Lou made to fortify the team was to sign Jagr.  That blurb about the Devils sounds like it was written by some casual Rangers fan who barely follows the NHL.  Like I said, I don't have a problem with the prediction...just the way it was made.  I get the feeling if you mentioned some of the names the Devils brought in to the author, he'd have no idea what you were talking about.   

[Triumph]

And that's what's upsetting, because for all the talk of Kovalchuk and Clarkson, neither's on-ice goal rates over the last two years at even strength are any good.  They score, their linemates don't, so how much offense are the Devils really losing with those two walking?  Now it's a little ridiculous to hold Tedenby and Carter's awfulness against Clarkson, but I think both those guys are better than what they showed as his linemate at the beginning of 11-12.  There's a pretty strong argument for Clarkson not making his teammates better and we know Kovalchuk is at best break-even and at worst a tire fire at even strength.  

 

The power play will likely be worse, but on the other hand it can't get much worse anyway.

 

As for the 2003 comparisons, that team wouldn't even come close to fitting under a salary cap, so let's do away with that.

Edited September 26, 2013 by Triumph

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

And that's what's upsetting, because for all the talk of Kovalchuk and Clarkson, neither's on-ice goal rates over the last two years at even strength are any good.  They score, their linemates don't, so how much offense are the Devils really losing with those two walking?  Now it's a little ridiculous to hold Tedenby and Carter's awfulness against Clarkson, but I think both those guys are better than what they showed as his linemate at the beginning of 11-12.  There's a pretty strong argument for Clarkson not making his teammates better and we know Kovalchuk is at best break-even and at worst a tire fire at even strength.  

 

The power play will likely be worse, but on the other hand it can't get much worse anyway.

 

This is what I mean.  All the author saw was a couple of names leaving and nothing more...he doesn't even really know what those names actually DO on the ice.  That's why I can't take those predictions all that seriously.  Like I said, make a detailed case backed up with knowledge and facts as to why you think the Devils are going to be a trainwreck, and I'll at least listen.  But this guy probably can't tell you much about the Devils beyond what was written, which makes his prediction a complete farce, regardless of where he has them finishing. 

[Devilsfan118]

Good, excellent.  I love when the Devils aren't predicted to do well - they almost alway surprise anyway.

 

Barring any serious injuries, I think this team should be right in the mix for the playoffs.  So much depth..sure they lack that dynamic #1 winger and/or center, but they will have 4 absolutely solid lines to roll night in and night out.

[StormJosh]

Good, excellent.  I love when the Devils aren't predicted to do well - they almost alway surprise anyway.

 

Barring any serious injuries, I think this team should be right in the mix for the playoffs.  So much depth..sure they lack that dynamic #1 winger and/or center, but they will have 4 absolutely solid lines to roll night in and night out.

You are assuming that Barch and Jannsen don't make up a spot on the 4th line. As soon as one of them is dressed we lose the ability to roll 4 solid lines.

[DaneykoIsGod]

Minus #4 and #27

slighty important players ; ) 

 

Still got #26 and #30.

[Daniel]

If the Devils hadn't gotten Schneider, then I could definitely see the potential for a blow-up type season...but a rag like SI isn't going to do a whole lot of research on each team anyway...the writer probably took a quick look at the arrivals and departures, immediately focused on Kovy leaving, and the signing of Jagr (because he's the "biggest" and best-known name), and made his prediction accordingly. 

 

If someone wants to predict the Devils are going to finish second-to-last in their conference, fine...but tell the whole story, and support the prediction with fleshed-out ideas.  Don't just completely leave out the acquisition of Schneider (clearly a VERY big deal) or guys like Ryder and Clowe.  Don't make it sound like the only move Lou made to fortify the team was to sign Jagr.  That blurb about the Devils sounds like it was written by some casual Rangers fan who barely follows the NHL.  Like I said, I don't have a problem with the prediction...just the way it was made.  I get the feeling if you mentioned some of the names the Devils brought in to the author, he'd have no idea what you were talking about.   

 

I think it also has something to do with the fact that some of the people that write these previews still think that Marty is a top ten goalie, on reputation alone, and can't see how much of an upgrade Schneider ought to be. 

[Devilsfan118]

You are assuming that Barch and Jannsen don't make up a spot on the 4th line. As soon as one of them is dressed we lose the ability to roll 4 solid lines.

 

Oh yes, you're definitely right.  It would be downright criminal to have Barch and/or Cam stealing 4th line minutes from one of the other guys on the team.  Keep Barch around for the Flyers and Rangers (and maybe Isles) - that's it, as far as I'm concerned. 

[Daniel]

You are assuming that Barch and Jannsen don't make up a spot on the 4th line. As soon as one of them is dressed we lose the ability to roll 4 solid lines.

 

A pure goon type will only dress maybe 40 games, and then get maybe 5-6 minutes of ice time a game.  You end up giving a few extra shifts to some other players, and it makes up the difference.  Coincidentally, this is one area where the Devils will miss Kovalchuk, although, to be fair, it's largely a product of the perceived need to keep an enforcer around.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Good, excellent.  I love when the Devils aren't predicted to do well - they almost alway surprise anyway.

 

Barring any serious injuries, I think this team should be right in the mix for the playoffs.  So much depth..sure they lack that dynamic #1 winger and/or center, but they will have 4 absolutely solid lines to roll night in and night out.

 

To me, this team has an "anything can happen" feel to it, it really does.  I remember all of the optimism many of us had going into the 2010-11 season...hoping for good things from  Rolston (finally), re-signing Kovalchuk, bringing back Arnott, signing Volchenkov and Tallinder...granted, this team is in MUCH better shape, in nets and behind the bench, then that team was, but we've definitely seen how these things sometimes simply don't come together on the ice. 

 

I'd be stunned if anything close to 10-11 came to fruition, but there's not too much that would surprise me.  Only way I see this team really struggling badly is if Schneider isn't stopping pucks, but as long as he plays the way we think he will, the Devils should be in a lot of games. 

 

 

I think it also has something to do with the fact that some of the people that write these previews still think that Marty is a top ten goalie, on reputation alone, and can't see how much of an upgrade Schneider ought to be. 

 

Probably a lot of truth to that.  That author is probably less knowledgable about the Devils than 90% of the posters here.  I don't think this guy and other casual NHL observers realize that, if by the end of November, Schneider's around .920 in save% and Brodeur's in the .890s, and Schneider is clearly the guy keeping the Devils in games and giving them the best chance to win, DeBoer is not going let nostalgia get in the way of winning hockey games.  The .9046 overall save% Marty's managed the past three years is flat-out pretty bad...heaven forbid the author even mention that Schneider is at .927 for his career...or even mention Schneider at all.       

Edited September 26, 2013 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[sundstrom]

 

As for the 2003 comparisons, that team wouldn't even come close to fitting under a salary cap, so let's do away with that.

 

 i am intrigued to do this exercise. You assume that they're all getting paid as if they were UFA's the year before (i assume). you're not going by real salary because even then, i think they were under - comfortably so. only stevens was making real big dollars then. then again, i'm not sure if you're going to give them a '03 level cap of $35MM. that team did not have a ton of expensive players. marty, stevens, neidermayer were the only ones making serious money. elias hadn't gotten a big deal yet. langenbrunner, freisen, neiuwendyk - not that big. gomez was not making big money yet.

[Triumph]

 i am intrigued to do this exercise. You assume that they're all getting paid as if they were UFA's the year before (i assume). you're not going by real salary because even then, i think they were under - comfortably so. only stevens was making real big dollars then. then again, i'm not sure if you're going to give them a '03 level cap of $35MM. that team did not have a ton of expensive players. marty, stevens, neidermayer were the only ones making serious money. elias hadn't gotten a big deal yet. langenbrunner, freisen, neiuwendyk - not that big. gomez was not making big money yet.

 

I am not assuming that a salary cap gets imposed over the Devils' salaries as they were then, though I think you're forgetting that NJ was right around 10th in the league in salary at the time.  I am assuming that the salary cap, with its attendant conditions (UFA at 27, arbitration after 4 years service, etc.) is in place.

 

Looking at this way, Niedermayer Rafalski Brodeur and Stevens are all UFA age, Elias is arbitration-eligible, Friesen is UFA age, Tverdovsky is UFA age, Sykora is UFA age - it changes the entire dynamics of everything that happened, sure, but my point is that's a pretty high salary team all things considered.  Madden is UFA age, Pandolfo is UFA age.

 

Here's a helpful link:  http://content.usatoday.com/sportsdata/hockey/nhl/Devils/salaries/2002 - this has them at around $50M.

[sundstrom]

I am not assuming that a salary cap gets imposed over the Devils' salaries as they were then, though I think you're forgetting that NJ was right around 10th in the league in salary at the time.  I am assuming that the salary cap, with its attendant conditions (UFA at 27, arbitration after 4 years service, etc.) is in place.

 

Looking at this way, Niedermayer Rafalski Brodeur and Stevens are all UFA age, Elias is arbitration-eligible, Friesen is UFA age, Tverdovsky is UFA age, Sykora is UFA age - it changes the entire dynamics of everything that happened, sure, but my point is that's a pretty high salary team all things considered.  Madden is UFA age, Pandolfo is UFA age.

 

Here's a helpful link:  http://content.usatoday.com/sportsdata/hockey/nhl/Devils/salaries/2002 - this has them at around $50M.

 

it's a very difficult exercise because, if there was a cap, then salaries might have been different. richard shmelik was a late season acquisition. some guys on that list played very little. and sykora wasn't around even though you mentioned him. if you want to argue that building the 99-00 team would be a tall order in today's dollars and salary cap, i can get behind that because that team had many more guys that would've been getting serious dollars in today's market/cap.

[Derlique]

What does 50 million come out to in today's money?

[Daniel]

What does 50 million come out to in today's money?

 

Maybe a good way to look at it without reference to the CPI and the like, is to compare average MLB salaries (no salary cap) from 2003 to todayish.  2003 average salary = $2.55 million; 2012 = $3.4 million

 

So roughly $66 million

[Derlique]

Maybe a good way to look at it without reference to the CPI and the like, is to compare average MLB salaries (no salary cap) from 2003 to todayish.  2003 average salary = $2.55 million; 2012 = $3.4 million

 

So roughly $66 million

Ah ok. So about what our salary is this year lol

[Triumph]

it's a very difficult exercise because, if there was a cap, then salaries might have been different. richard shmelik was a late season acquisition. some guys on that list played very little. and sykora wasn't around even though you mentioned him. if you want to argue that building the 99-00 team would be a tall order in today's dollars and salary cap, i can get behind that because that team had many more guys that would've been getting serious dollars in today's market/cap.

 

I didn't count Smehlik, FYI.  I mentioned Sykora because the Devils traded him for Friesen and Tverdovsky, all 3 of whom would've been UFA under the current rules, so it just changes everything that happened, obviously.  Point is, you don't get the enormous savings from Rafalski and Madden that NJ got, even with the contracts Lou had to give to them because of his mistake.

[roomtemp]

I love when people bring up Clarkson with our goal scoring. He was just as much a contributor to those games where we couldn't score on a pee wee goalie. Clowe at least has a history of putting up points other then goals. I know some of that is because he plays on really good offensive teams but still the high difference can't be all that can it?

[MantaRay]

This is great news. This is a far better team than last year. Lou upgraded the roster with some great signings (Brunner was a steal). We are better on the blue line with Larsson getting more minutes. Getting Schneider fills a huge void behind Marty. I don't think Jagr makes it to 2014 with us, but we are very solid and don't really need him to compete. Looking forward to a great season.

[Ollie McKraut]

Before two years ago Clarkson always shot right at the goalie's chest. I'm glad that we are ranked low because we seem to do better when we aren't expected to compete. Would be interested to see a comparison between predicted finishes and actual finishes over the past 20 years or so.

 

The '10-'11 team was better than last year's team. That team would have done serious damage in the postseason if not for the MacLean nightmare. Idk what happened last year but we just seemed to lose so many nights. The goaltending was really poor and probably the reason we missed the playoffs.

[EdgeControl]

If the Devils hadn't gotten Schneider, then I could definitely see the potential for a blow-up type season...but a rag like SI isn't going to do a whole lot of research on each team anyway...the writer probably took a quick look at the arrivals and departures, immediately focused on Kovy leaving, and the signing of Jagr (because he's the "biggest" and best-known name), and made his prediction accordingly. 

 

If someone wants to predict the Devils are going to finish second-to-last in their conference, fine...but tell the whole story, and support the prediction with fleshed-out ideas.  Don't just completely leave out the acquisition of Schneider (clearly a VERY big deal) or guys like Ryder and Clowe.  Don't make it sound like the only move Lou made to fortify the team was to sign Jagr.  That blurb about the Devils sounds like it was written by some casual Rangers fan who barely follows the NHL.  Like I said, I don't have a problem with the prediction...just the way it was made.  I get the feeling if you mentioned some of the names the Devils brought in to the author, he'd have no idea what you were talking about.   

Agree with this statement. we go as far as our new goalie takes us. and everyone needs to chip in with some timely goals. we do not have a lot of fire power and we have some self inflicted flaws at key defensive positions

[CarpathianForest]

Let me guess: The top 5 teams are the Penguins, Bruins, Blackhawks and Red Wings and Kings or Canucks. The Rags and Flyers are ranked somewhere to make the playoffs despite not addressing any needed issues in the off season. The Oilers are also predicted to finish somewhere near the bottom of the west as well.

[Devils Dose]

I was in Vegas the other day.  Here's what they think (odds to win it all):

Chicago 6/1

Pittsburgh 6/1

Rangers 8/1

Los Angeles 8/1

Boston 8/1

Detroit 13/1

St. Louis 15/1

Vancouver 15/1

Montreal 20/1

San Jose 20/1

Toronto 20/1

Anaheim 22/1

Minnesota 25/1

Islanders 25/1

Philadelphia 25/1

Washington 25/1

Edmonton 30/1

Ottawa 30/1

Dallas 40/1

Colorado 40/1

New Jersey 45/1

Nashville 50/1

Tampa Bay 50/1

Columbus 60/1

Carolina 60/1

Phoenix 60/1

Winnipeg 75/1

Buffalo 80/1

Calgary 100/1

Florida 150/1

 

So the money says we finished 6th in our division.

[njdevsftw]

Why on earth would they put the Rags in the top 4?