Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0
Mitico12

Playoff Implications - Serious thought

25 posts in this topic

Another loss. 4 points out of a possible 20.  Realistically, who is taking wagers AGAINST us making the playoffs at this juncture?

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The good news?  The new playoff format means we're only 4 points out of 3rd place in the Division.

 

The bad news?  Can't see this team improving much.  Definitely an under .500 team.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i was thinking about this this-morning. Being that the division isnt that great makes the points total not look AS bad.. but if they cant figure out how to start walking away from games with 2 points soon theyre going to dig themselves a hole that they just cant get out of if they drastically improve later on in the season(and we get a new coach)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

but on second thought if the team continues to suck i guess ill be able to go to all of the games for $10 bucks a seat :).. like last night i sat in the first row of 122 for $13.50 what a steal

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Eh not to be a negative nancy, but don't let the current standings give you false hope.  The Islanders will continue to win and likely claim that last spot.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The good news?  The new playoff format means we're only 4 points out of 3rd place in the Division.

 

The bad news?  Can't see this team improving much.  Definitely an under .500 team.

 

The Devils finished last season with an .894 save percentage, and that was with Johan Hedberg.  So far this year they're at .895.  I mean, yeah, if that number doesn't improve they're finished, but I think it will.

 

They have 20 goals in 10 games.  The Columbus Blue Jackets finished with 164 in 2001-2002 - I think that's a modern-era record (1996-now), but I can't be sure.  You don't think this team has a better offense than an expansion team?  It's not going to be a good offense, but I don't think it's the worst in NHL history.

 

You can't see this team improving much?   Don't really buy it.  They need to dig out of this hole, but they can play a heck of a lot better than they have.

Edited by Triumph

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i put playoffs at 20% at this point - i'm taking under 85 points. i'll take any bets at playoffs y/n and under points. only really good teams can survive this kind of drought. the devils are not a really good team.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Because of the change in playoff format it is hard, if not impossible, to use the old standard of 90 points being needed to make the playoffs.  I'm sure there are outliers where a playoff team did not have 90 points, but the old standard was a good rule of thumb. 

Of course no one knows what the future willl bring, however I'm almost resigned to the Devs missing the dance this year.  In other years the reasons for bad stretches were resolved by players coming back from injury, or contract holdouts, and/or player trades or coaching changes.  I do not see any of that on the horizon for this year's team.  Barring a blockbuster deal, I think we'll have the same players in March that we do now. 

 

And since I see us a playoff-bubble team coming into this season (win one, lose one, win three, lose two)  where we're basically around .500, this horrendous mathematical start really has me questioning wheter or not we cam make up for these lost 5-6 games.   With 72 games remaining (a possible 144 points) and if we need 84 more points to reach 90, then the rest of the year needs a .583 winning percentage & I think that is just out of our reach. 

 

I'll keep an open mind for another month, and because some other teams have been equally atrocious, we still have mathematical possibilities.  So we'll see where we are at with points on December 1.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nope. This team will be back to being competitive in another 2-3 years. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I took a very quick look at standings for the past 12 years.  5 teams made the playoffs with less than 90, and three of these were before the lockout & the new shootout rule.

Since the shootout, only 2 teams (Phi/Mon) made the playoff with 88 points & that was back in 2010.

 

I've always thought you gotta get 11 points for every 10 games over the season (giving you 88 points) and then in games 81/82 you gotta get another point or two.

 

So I'll stick with 90 points until I see the new playoff format changes the math. 

 

Again 90 points is not cast in stone, but history shows it to be the minimum target.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i put playoffs at 20% at this point - i'm taking under 85 points. i'll take any bets at playoffs y/n and under points. only really good teams can survive this kind of drought. the devils are not a really good team.

 

The more I think about it, the more I'm not buying this, but there are a ton of factors here - can the old guys sustain their play, and will the young guys improve?  This can once again be a 55% Fentied team, and this time with an elite goaltender.  Trouble is, I can't see them doing anything more than breaking even at special teams (the days of the short-handed goal are apparently over, and the PP, while getting better nightly, is unlikely to be 'good'), so that leaves it up to the goalie to be the difference.

 

If guys like Salvador and Zidlicky start breaking down, it'll be trouble.  They also can't sustain a long injury to either Elias or Jagr, those would be devastating.  But if Loktionov and Larsson can pull their play up, 55% or better is not out of reach.  And if you can do that and get goaltending (and maybe a shootout goal or two), you'll go on some long winning streaks

Edited by Triumph

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I honestly do not think we will make the playoffs this year. It is the first time I have felt that way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1997-1998 Lighting were the worst with 151 goals in 82 games

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Does anyone have the clip of the football coach saying, "playoffs?" Insert here---

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Isn't it too soon to be talking playoffs with 72 games to go and new owners with money to buy rental players? The first 10 games we needed stand on their heads goaltending because we aren't scoring enough and we didn't get the goaltending.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

IMO if this team was more talented, they could survive the start, and if they started around .500 they would be talented enough. As it is, I think they'll be better than 1 or 2 playoff teams, and outplaying those teams down the stretch, but they'll still end up missing out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Devils finished last season with an .894 save percentage, and that was with Johan Hedberg.  So far this year they're at .895.  I mean, yeah, if that number doesn't improve they're finished, but I think it will.

 

They have 20 goals in 10 games.  The Columbus Blue Jackets finished with 164 in 2001-2002 - I think that's a modern-era record (1996-now), but I can't be sure.  You don't think this team has a better offense than an expansion team?  It's not going to be a good offense, but I don't think it's the worst in NHL history.

 

You can't see this team improving much?   Don't really buy it.  They need to dig out of this hole, but they can play a heck of a lot better than they have.

 

Look at the 2011-12 Minnesota Wild. 35-36-11, 166 GF (not counting an additional 11 "goals" credited for shootout wins).  A lot of 2nd/3rd/4th line players on that team, just like this year's version of NJ.  This Devils team could easily mirror that team, only they'll never get 11 shootout wins.

 

The goaltending may improve, but this team will struggle to reach 180 goals.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hey!!  Rebuilding is a bitch.  Not much you can do but wallow in the mess until something big happens.  That's how we got the '95 team.  It takes time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Look at the 2011-12 Minnesota Wild. 35-36-11, 166 GF (not counting an additional 11 "goals" credited for shootout wins).  A lot of 2nd/3rd/4th line players on that team, just like this year's version of NJ.  This Devils team could easily mirror that team, only they'll never get 11 shootout wins.

 

The goaltending may improve, but this team will struggle to reach 180 goals.

 

That team was abysmal, although hilariously was in 1st place in the league in late November, which just goes to show what short-term luck can do.  (And of course when short-term luck can work against you, as in the Devils right now).  No doubt some people around here would've thought they were legitimate at that point, because your record says who you are.

 

But just a cursory glance at those forwards shows they are worse in every respect than NJ's - you can tell by asking yourself 'Is this player in the NHL now?'.  Most of these guys are not in the NHL or are in less prominent roles than they were for this 2011-12 team.  In addition, they suffered injuries, which led to their horrendous depth being exposed.  This led to sub replacement level players like Warren Peters getting 58 games - he hasn't played a game in the NHL since.  Now if NJ suffers lots of injuries, the Pelleys and Sestitos will be up here crowding the roster, but the Devils when healthy have 15 viable NHL forwards (being generous here with S. Gionta and Tedenby), and have guys in the minors like Boucher, Matteau, Whitney, and Timmins who shouldn't fall all themselves if they were given an NHL shot - they wouldn't be much better than what Minnesota threw out there, but they'd be better.  The fact that NJ has someone like Rosti Olesz where Minnesota had Warren Peters makes a big difference.

 

In addition, the defense on the Devils is much stronger - the Wild defense that year was Schultz/Gilbert, Spurgeon, Zidlicky, Scandella, Zanon, Prosser, basically a lot of young guys, garbage, and Zidlicky who hated playing there, and when he got traded, his replacement was Kurtis Foster which made the team substantially worse.  For as much grief as Peter Harrold gets, he'd've probably been that team's 3rd best defenseman at even strength.

 

NJ has a lot of players who it's a mystery who they are - Clowe, Loktionov, Brunner, Larsson, Josefson, Tedenby, everyone over 35, even Henrique and Zajac to an extent - yeah if everything melts down, we could look at this roster in 2 years and say the same things about it, but I really don't think that's the case given how the team started out the first 10 games.  Jagr is still a very good player, Elias is still a very good player, Ryder's not looking like a waste of space, etc.  I think this team's low end is around 175 goals, but we'll see.

Edited by Triumph

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Did some quick math, average 6-4 every set of ten you get 90 points. 6 wins = 12 points X 7 sets of ten. Not out of reach BUT it's seems to be getting late early.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

makes me laugh every time! what can yaaaa do i guess itll happen or it wont only time will tell

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0