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dmann422

GDT: Devils @ Leafs 1/12- 7pm EST

198 posts in this topic

My response here (from after the 1-0 win vs. Dallas) still stands:

 

http://www.njdevs.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=132963&p=1237475

 

You all disagreed and took me down a peg, because we won then, but are pretty much saying the same things, because we lost in a shootout, thus proving my point. 

 

I won't be satisfied til we rout an opponent or two twice in the next week or so, 4-1 or 5-2 with Schneider in net. I'm not satisified with the odd 2-1 or 1-0 result, it's just a continuation of the issues that have plagued us the entire season, which is getting close to 2 points and not finishing enough to get them.

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Problem is that this isn't good enough.  The Devils continue to hover around NHL .500.  Still no signs that they'll be able to be much better than that.  Obviously the first problem is that they've become shootout-impotent, and last night's shootout showed me that this issue is now firmly in the minds of the shooters (Jagr looked like he was overthinking in a big way)...basically, if the other team gets a 1-0 lead in the shootout in Round 1, it's pretty much game over at this point.  (At least the Devils aren't alone in shootout ineptitude...Detroit is 1-7 in them.)

 

The sad thing is that the Devils are getting more offense out of their defenseman than they have in years.  They've gotten 21 goals from their D this year, after getting 13 from their D in last year's 48 games.  They're getting considerably better goaltending overall...Marty's numbers are pretty similar to last season's (as in not very good), but Schneider's numbers are a quantum leap over what Hedberg provided.  Forwards like Henrique, Ryder, and Brunner get hot on occasion, but it seems like when one or two guys get it going, none of the other forwards keep it going.  Zajac becoming on offensive afterthought really hurts.   

 

Right now, the Devils look like an 82-86 point team.  They're going to need at least 90 points to grab a playoff berth.  Funny thing is, if they make it, they can probably do some damage if Schneider gets hot and is the undisputed #1 goalie, and Elias is back in the lineup and healthy.  But they've got to get in first.  The Devils are 7-3-4 in their last 14 GP (.643 point%)...if they could do something similar over their next 14 GP, I'll start to feel better about their playoff hopes. 

 

NJ has played 4 straight games getting 30+ shots and they haven't trailed significantly in any of these games.  It's starting to turn for them, ever so slowly, but it is turning.  And indeed, the more games Schneider starts, the better the defense will be.  I don't really know how this looks like an 82-86 point team.

 

The other thing you have to consider is the schedule, which does not feature any more games with the Blackhawks, Kings, or Ducks, but does feature 3 more with the Washington Capitals, for example.

Edited by Triumph

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most of these guys are top 2 or three defensmen on their teams. It's unfair to compare volchenkov and Salvador to them, they're both 3rd pairing guys for us at this point.

Difficult to respond to everyone on my phone so I'll just say in general I appreciate a critical analysis of a player's performance like sterio gave, the problem I had earlier were comments like "strip him of the c and give it to greene" or "just retire already" - it's unfortunate that decent discussion gets clouded by these types of posts.

 

I'm simply gonna have to spot using players are vague examples... every single time i do people jump and focus 100% on names. 

 

All i said is that i'd like to have young and fast defensive dmen if we had to instead of slow over the hill guys. Simply named those guys cause they we're young, fast and defensive minded. Not comparing players for players.

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Salvador made one really glaring bad play and so it's time to kill him - I don't even think that play was really his fault either, Clowe shouldn't be there - it was going to be a nice breakout until that happened.

He's playing better than last year, that's for sure. Find it funny no one is mentioning Gelinas being turned inside out by Clarkson, but that's probably because it isn't even noteworthy - someone turns Gelinas inside out every game these days.

also gelinas was fortunate Cory bailed him out there, Salvador wasn't. I honestly didn't even notice gelinas was benched for 10 minutes straight after that play.

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I'm simply gonna have to spot using players are vague examples... every single time i do people jump and focus 100% on names.

All i said is that i'd like to have young and fast defensive dmen if we had to instead of slow over the hill guys. Simply named those guys cause they we're young, fast and defensive minded. Not comparing players for players.

Fine, forget me responding to specific examples you cited, I'll give you specifics though- I would argue that the Salvador-volchenkov pairing is one of the best 3rd pairings in the league. I don't have time to go team by team but just in the metro division I would take them over:

delzotto/Moore

meszaros/schenn

strait/donavon

Murphy/Harrison

Olesky/erskine

Bortuzzo/engelland

Note- these might not be pairings but they are the defensemen who average third pairing minutes on each team.

And it's easy to just say "boy i wish we had more young fast defensive defensemen." I'm sure every team would want that, but that isn't an argument that should be used against a player when evaluating him, that's an argument against the organization.

Edited by dmann422

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I'm simply gonna have to spot using players are vague examples... every single time i do people jump and focus 100% on names. 

 

All i said is that i'd like to have young and fast defensive dmen if we had to instead of slow over the hill guys. Simply named those guys cause they we're young, fast and defensive minded. Not comparing players for players.

 

Them being different players is what makes it a different situation. You can't compare young fast defensive minded players to older slower defensive players, and then get upset that people tell you that they aren't the same. Your argument is essentially 'I wish these apples were more like oranges', but then getting upset when someone points out that apples aren't oranges.

 

As for the types of player, these players don't just appear. At one point, Sal and Volchenkov were younger and faster. Those players you named (or any players like them if names aren't allowed) are in their prime and hard to acquire. They will eventually be older and slower and easier to acquire. The only real way to get players like that in their prime is drafting them or trading other assets, and we don't have much of anything to trade. Or signing them to large contracts, like we did with Volchenkov.

 

It also should be pointed out are that the older guys are there to help rookies both on and off the ice. You need older players to show these kids the way the league works and how to conduct themselves as professional athletes. Leadership is about so much more than being the best player on a team.

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Salvador made one really glaring bad play and so it's time to kill him

 

Look at his whole body of work the past few weeks and he should absolutely be given a short leash by DeBoer, and by us the fans. There are times where he seems like he's just out there to sabotage our game, sabotage our lead, it's extremely troubling. The mistakes he makes are never "grey area", like a Zidlicky/Gelinas overplaying their offensive hand and being out of position defensively, it's never like that. He makes some of the most boneheaded plays of any of our players on the roster, I can't imagine Schneider being comfortable at all when Salvador is on the ice. Schneider or Brodeur will give off the occasional rebound and Salvador totally misses his chance to clear it, looks like he's sweeping the ice in a curling match, he's so lost out there; or worse yet, he'll be behind the forward on the play and, at best, pushes him toward goaltender (and toward the puck, for a tap-in second chance). It's happened so many times.

 

Don't forget Salvador's absolute uselessness on what probably should've counted as a goal by Toronto (but was waived). There was also a glaring error in the 3rd period of either Saturday's or Thursday's game where he had about 5 seconds of time and space and ends up coughing the puck for a quick 2-on-1 that Volchenkov and Schneider had to clean up. We shout bloody murder (or "bust!") when Larsson makes a similar or lesser error. Salvador's a huge liability and I'm sick of him "leading" this team.

Fine, forget me responding to specific examples you cited, I'll give you specifics though- I would argue that the Salvador-volchenkov pairing is one of the best 3rd pairings in the league. I don't have time to go team by team but just in the metro division I would take them over:

delzotto/Moore

meszaros/schenn

strait/donavon

Murphy/Harrison

Olesky/erskine

Bortuzzo/engelland

 

Yeah but none of these guys are captains of their respective teams and I'd guess they're not given the responsibility of 22+ minutes and put out during many of the clutch moments in the game. Our "3rd pairing" is given that trust and that responsibility and I, like many others, am questioning why.

It also should be pointed out are that the older guys are there to help rookies both on and off the ice. You need older players to show these kids the way the league works and how to conduct themselves as professional athletes. Leadership is about so much more than being the best player on a team.

 

Yeah but your captain shouldn't be close to being one of the worst players on the team either.

Edited by DJ Eco

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Defensemen are going to make more mistakes that end up in the back of the net than forwards.  It's even more stark when that player plays on the penalty kill but not on the power play.  Is Salvador great?  No.  Has he been better than last year?  Yes.  53.6% Corsi since coming back - I'll take it.  One of the unfortunate things about the Salvador-Volchenkov unpairing is that it means Salvador-Zidlicky is back as a pairing and that both guys will end up with 21 or so minutes a game.

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Yeah but none of these guys are captains of their respective teams and I'd guess they're not given the responsibility of 22+ minutes and put out during many of the clutch moments in the game. Our "3rd pairing" is given that trust and that responsibility and I, like many others, am questioning why.

Salvador plays pretty much 3rd pairing minutes 5v5 since he came back (other than last night since gelinas was benched.) the only defensemen averaging less 5v5 minutes are volchenkov and gelinas. Merrill is right around the same.

I'm not sure why the captaincy is continued to be brought up... It's not like he took it for himself, it was given to him by the coaches (who I'm sure have a good idea of the lockeroom) Is that somehow his fault? It's not written in stone that the c has to be worn by the best player on the ice.

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NJ has played 4 straight games getting 30+ shots and they haven't trailed significantly in any of these games.  It's starting to turn for them, ever so slowly, but it is turning.  And indeed, the more games Schneider starts, the better the defense will be.  I don't really know how this looks like an 82-86 point team.

 

The other thing you have to consider is the schedule, which does not feature any more games with the Blackhawks, Kings, or Ducks, but does feature 3 more with the Washington Capitals, for example.

 

I've pointed out at the schedule does get easier (and more balanced from a home/away standpoint).  That will help them, sure, but what they've shown so far is they're not really much of a lock to beat or lose to anyone.  It's rarely easy for them. 

 

Would love it if Schneider has 45 or so starts by season's end (that would mean he'd start at least 23 of Devils' remaining 35 games), but all it will take for that to not to happen will be two games where Cory gives up 3 goals in each one (but his team doesn't bail him out), which will lead to Marty getting a start where the Devils win 4-3 or 5-4 (regardless of how Marty plays), then PDB riding "the hot hand".  Then there will be a stretch where Marty starts 5 out of 7 games or something like that.   

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I've pointed out at the schedule does get easier (and more balanced from a home/away standpoint).  That will help them, sure, but what they've shown so far is they're not really much of a lock to beat or lose to anyone.  It's rarely easy for them. 

 

Would love it if Schneider has 45 or so starts by season's end (that would mean he'd start at least 23 of Devils' remaining 35 games), but all it will take for that to not to happen will be two games where Cory gives up 3 goals in each one (but his team doesn't bail him out), which will lead to Marty getting a start where the Devils win 4-3 or 5-4 (regardless of how Marty plays), then PDB riding "the hot hand".  Then there will be a stretch where Marty starts 5 out of 7 games or something like that.   

 

The sequence of events you've described is pretty unlikely.  I know it's been unlikely up to this point with how much the team has scored for Brodeur and not for Schneider.  Still, I think NJ can get 45 points in these last 35 games and I'd put their over/under at 40.  They are not going to keep losing shootouts forever.

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The sequence of events you've described is pretty unlikely.  I know it's been unlikely up to this point with how much the team has scored for Brodeur and not for Schneider.  Still, I think NJ can get 45 points in these last 35 games and I'd put their over/under at 40.  They are not going to keep losing shootouts forever.

 

That was about my feelings a few games ago...that the Devils would have to go about 10 games over NHL .500 to assure themselves of a playoff berth. 

 

They're on a brutal shootout run (now 2-14 in their last 16, dating back to last season), but yeah, they should win a few eventually. 

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Clowe-Henrique-Ryder have combined for 40 shots the last 4 games. They are playing like the Devils top line.

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Some good news for NJ. Travis Yost calculated which teams have the most difficult remaining schedules. Philly, Toronto and the Caps are in the top of 5

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Some good news for NJ. Travis Yost calculated which teams have the most difficult remaining schedules. Philly, Toronto and the Caps are in the top of 5

 

Can't help but wonder when the Leafs crash and burn.  They keep hinting at it, but through the shootout have managed to stave it off.

 

Since November 25:

 

24 GP (8-12-4 record)

 

2 regulation wins (?!)

1 OT win

5 SO wins

12 regulation losses

1 OT loss

3 SO losses

 

They've given up 35+ shots in 10 out of their last 11 games (38.3 SA on average over that stretch).  They're 5-4-2 in those games, thanks to four shootout wins. 

 

Two regulation wins in 24 GP...it's a friggin' MIRACLE that team is still over NHL .500 on the season. 

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Can't help but wonder when the Leafs crash and burn.  They keep hinting at it, but through the shootout have managed to stave it off.

 

Since November 25:

 

24 GP (8-12-4 record)

 

2 regulation wins (?!)

1 OT win

5 SO wins

12 regulation losses

1 OT loss

3 SO losses

 

They've given up 35+ shots in 10 out of their last 11 games (38.3 SA on average over that stretch).  They're 5-4-2 in those games, thanks to four shootout wins. 

 

Two regulation wins in 24 GP...it's a friggin' MIRACLE that team is still over NHL .500 on the season. 

 

I believe they're on an 84 point pace or somesuch. 

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I believe they're on an 84 point pace or somesuch. 

 

They're 22-20-5, but everything has been pointing to a serious sh!t streak coming for them.  You can argue that 8-12-4 pretty much is one, but they seem ripe for a REAL implosion...something along the lines of a 1-7-2 nosedive. 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Clowe-Henrique-Ryder have combined for 40 shots the last 4 games. They are playing like the Devils top line.

 

You are making it very difficult for us to boil players down to "awesome" and "sucks".

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Some good news for NJ. Travis Yost calculated which teams have the most difficult remaining schedules. Philly, Toronto and the Caps are in the top of 5

 

That is great news, even with Toronto in there, with the Wild Card implications. I've kept ignoring the Wild Card table for the longest as the Metro Division has been so terrible, but I just realized how close it is. The way our team's playing, we deserve 3rd spot in the Metro, at least. However, I think even with the luck we're having (or lack thereof, vs. the luck some of the teams above us are having), a Wild Card spot is very doable.

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This team is on the cusp. Close, very close

 

I've been saying this for practically the whole season.  I'm still waiting for it to happen.

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Some good news for NJ. Travis Yost calculated which teams have the most difficult remaining schedules. Philly, Toronto and the Caps are in the top of 5

let the struggle for the other begin!

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