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Mike Brown

32 games to go.

50 posts in this topic

How will a goaltender playing better not win us any more games?[/

Come on. I was challenging the idea that Schnieder is going to be the key to getting more wins. He's not going to play much better than what he's been doing. If his goal support was up a bit that becomes a whole different narrative.

His goal support will go up, do you believe the team will continue to shoot 6% with him in nets? If he got the Brodeur 3 goal support his record would be 14 - 1 - 8...that is asssuming he loses every SO game. If he wins half the SO games his record is now 18 - 1 - 4

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His goal support will go up, do you believe the team will continue to shoot 6% with him in nets? If he got the Brodeur 3 goal support his record would be 14 - 1 - 8...that is asssuming he loses every SO game. If he wins half the SO games his record is now 18 - 1 - 4

Yes I believe we are that bad offensively and our coaching isn't helping. We play a completely different style wih schneider in net and the transition game out of our own zone looks putrid when he's in goal. How much of this is coaching and the defensive carousel I wouldn't know but it's not as simple as just shooting more.

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Yes I believe we are that bad offensively and our coaching isn't helping. We play a completely different style wih schneider in net and the transition game out of our own zone looks putrid when he's in goal. How much of this is coaching and the defensive carousel I wouldn't know but it's not as simple as just shooting more.

Coaching is not the problem. How good do you think most teams would be if Jagr were their number 1 offensive threat? He was a supporting player on Dallas, and they didn't do so well last year.

If I took Kane and say Hossa away from Chicago, they would not be that great. That's what DeBoer has had to deal with, and the team hasn't disintegrated. That's the sign of good coaching.

He does some baffling things, and I wish he wouldn't ride Marty as much as he does, but we are very lucky to have him.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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Wow the season has flown by, this most back to backs in the league schedule has really sucked. I feel like I've hardly gotten to see any games

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ive watched almost every game but can't believe how much of the season has gone by already .. going to be sad when theres no devils hockey to watch

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We definitely have the easiest schedule out of teams like Philly, Washington, maybe the Rangers. None of those games are locks though. Devils can beat the Penguins and the Rangers 3 times in a row but then lose to Edmonton. That's been the reality of the 2013-2014 season.

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Wow the season has flown by, this most back to backs in the league schedule has really sucked. I feel like I've hardly gotten to see any games

 

ive watched almost every game but can't believe how much of the season has gone by already .. going to be sad when theres no devils hockey to watch

it gets worse every year as you get older!!! LOL  TIME STARTS FLYING!

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I'm gonna predict the number of points we're gonna get from each team in the remaining games.  Here goes......

 

Boston: 1

Buffalo: 2

Carolina: 3

Columbus: 2

Calgary: 2

Colorado: 0

Dallas: 2

Detroit: 3

Edmonton: 2

Panthers: 4

Wild: 2

Predators: 2

Islanders: 4

Rangers: 2

Senators: 2

Flyers: 1

Coyotes: 2

Sharks: 1

Blues: 0

Maple Leafs: 2

Capitals: 4

 

TOTAL: 43

GRAND TOTAL: 94 overall

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I'm gonna predict the number of points we're gonna get from each team in the remaining games.  Here goes......

 

TOTAL: 43

GRAND TOTAL: 94 overall

 

11 games over NHL .500 over their last 32 GP?  Basically 20-9-3, 19-8-5, or 18-7-7?  Hell, I think 17-8-7 is probably too optimistic (92 points), and I think that's possible only if damned near every last thing breaks right.  A while ago I thought they'd finish with 82-86.  I think they still finish in the upper part of that range. 

 

I thinking the best they'll probably do is 6 over NHL .500 (17-11-4,16-10-6, or 15-9-8)...that would give them 89 points, which according to the link above would give them a little better than a 50-50 chance of getting in.  The absolute most I can hope for with this team is 92 points, and that seems like a real longshot.   

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His goal support will go up, do you believe the team will continue to shoot 6% with him in nets? If he got the Brodeur 3 goal support his record would be 14 - 1 - 8...that is asssuming he loses every SO game. If he wins half the SO games his record is now 18 - 1 - 4

 

The Devils are the team that defies the odds. Remember when we were like "sh!t the Devil have lost 6 shootouts in a row? that's bound to change...this can't continue"

 

12 and counting

 

So yes. We will continue to shoot 6% with him in nets. Or worse

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Coaching is not the problem. How good do you think most teams would be if Jagr were their number 1 offensive threat? He was a supporting player on Dallas, and they didn't do so well last year.

If I took Kane and say Hossa away from Chicago, they would not be that great. That's what DeBoer has had to deal with, and the team hasn't disintegrated. That's the sign of good coaching.

He does some baffling things, and I wish he wouldn't ride Marty as much as he does, but we are very lucky to have him.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Chicago without Kane and Hossa it's still a lot better than us.

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Short-term trend extrapolation: 9 points in past 7 games = 41 points in remaining games and probably in the the playoffs

Slightly longer short-term extrapolation: 11 pts in past 10 games = 35 pts in remaining games and probably out

Long-term trend extrapolation: 48 pts in last 43 games (since the season-opening 7 losses) = 36 pts which is still probably not enough

So in end, the team has to play better than it has (we all knew that). But what do not know and cannot control is by how much. If only somebody could run several million simulations of the remainder of the season...

Oh Hello!

Interesting data in there. They came up with a 48.7% chance for the Devils to make it. Most of that (35.2 percentage points) comes from NJ finishing in the 89-95 pt range. Below that is unlikely to make the playoffs, and above is unlikely for the team to achieve. So that objective analysis seems to be rosier than fan opinion, which isn't too surprising.

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This place seems to be coming up with a probability that more closely resembles fan opinion here (29% to make the playoffs).  At least both seem to be predicting that we stay in the mix right up to the end, so we should have an interesting remainder to the season.

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This place seems to be coming up with a probability that more closely resembles fan opinion here (29% to make the playoffs).  At least both seem to be predicting that we stay in the mix right up to the end, so we should have an interesting remainder to the season.

 

Seems fair, in that to make it, the Devils are going to have to play markedly better than they have in the 50 games so far. 

 

Good news is they have some things going for them (Cory likely to start more, lots of home games, some tough opponents out of the way)...but we still have to see if they're capable of doing anything with any of that. 

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Seems fair, in that to make it, the Devils are going to have to play markedly better than they have in the 50 games so far. 

 

Good news is they have some things going for them (Cory likely to start more, lots of home games, some tough opponents out of the way)...but we still have to see if they're capable of doing anything with any of that. 

one other thing is the overall weakness of the division, lets face it, we may not be a strong team, but who is???

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one other thing is the overall weakness of the division, lets face it, we may not be a strong team, but who is???

 

I can't believe how long we've been 1 or 2 points out of a playoff spot. It's pretty unbelievable.

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I can't believe how long we've been 1 or 2 points out of a playoff spot. It's pretty unbelievable.

the problem is if they dont get some points in these next three games we are going to start falling farther and farther away now.. we need to go on a little tear and start actually winning a few games in a row.. i dont think tonight will be a 2 point night against the blues either Edited by 2ELIAS6

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I can't believe how long we've been 1 or 2 points out of a playoff spot. It's pretty unbelievable.

 

It is...but it's also a bit of fool's gold.  Lots of team bunched right round where the Devils are.  The four teams above them have a game in hand, and the team just below them has two. 

 

Chances are one or two of those teams are going to get hot...hovering around NHL .500 is only going keep the Devils involved for so long.  A five or six-game winning streak would work wonders...if the Devils could somehow pull that off, they could probably play slightly better than NHL .500ish hockey (basically what they've done to this point) and still get in. 

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This team is not good enough to make the playoffs.  Very lacking in offensive ability and streaky in that facet, anyway.

 

Plus we continually play the wrong goaltender.  I have been watching Martin Brodeur for 20 years now and  it kills me to see him playing in this state.  Not how I want to remember him.  And not how he should want to be remembered.

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This team is not good enough to make the playoffs.  Very lacking in offensive ability and streaky in that facet, anyway.

 

Plus we continually play the wrong goaltender.  I have been watching Martin Brodeur for 20 years now and  it kills me to see him playing in this state.  Not how I want to remember him.  And not how he should want to be remembered.

i kind of agree...even if the team does make the playoffs with their current level of play they arent making it past the first round.. we need an addition from somewhere and i dont see us getting it

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Well, there are two points that not even the most optimistic of us had chalked up into projections.

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This team is not good enough to make the playoffs.  Very lacking in offensive ability and streaky in that facet, anyway.

 

Plus we continually play the wrong goaltender.  I have been watching Martin Brodeur for 20 years now and  it kills me to see him playing in this state.  Not how I want to remember him.  And not how he should want to be remembered.

 

Schneider has now played in 6 out of the last 9 games.  If PDB doesn't overreact if Cory dares to have a couple of meh starts, that kind of ratio probably continues.  I'm guess Cory will get Friday's start against the Caps, and Tuesday's and next Thursday's starts against the Blues and Stars.  Marty is a lock to start against the Rangers, and probably get next Friday's start against the Predators.  That leaves three games before the Olympic break:  2/3 vs. Col, 2/7 vs. Edm, and 2/8 @ Wash.  I'm guessing Marty gets the one against the Oilers.  So if all of this comes to fruition, then Cory will have started 11 out of 17 games, and will be getting the more difficult opponents (for whatever that's worth).  Under the circumstances, I think that's fair.   

 

After the break, I guess we'll see.  A lot of back-to-backs coming...SEVEN of them. 

 

 

Well, there are two points that not even the most optimistic of us had chalked up into projections.

 

I don't bother with projections myself...just the number of points needed.  The Devils will beat teams like the Blues, but lose to teams like the Sabres, without much rhyme or reason (but possibly due to factors like fatigue, etc). 

 

So the way I see it, the Devils need about 92 points to assure themselves of a playoff spot (could be wrong, but that's the number I'm going with).  So now they need 39 in their final 31 games.   

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976
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