Colin226

GDT: NJ Devils vs. NY Rangers - 12:30pm on NBC - Stadium Series Editio

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8:00 pm tommorrow cant come fast enough, hopefully the blues are still not sharp. but they'll be looking for pay back.

 

Just keep remembering 10-5-5 in their last 20.  Yesterday blew, but as we saw with the Blues, any team can turn in a dud any given day.  The Devils really haven't had that many of them lately.  Even if they don't win against the Blues, I don't see them having a game like Sunday's. 

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I disagree. If Marty even has a microsecond of thought about coming back the reaction has to be, not here. The adults in the room are going to have to make this decision for him.

id be interested to hear from the stat guys exactly how many wins Marty would cost us next year as backup. If he comes back and only gets 20 games with a .900 sv percentage, what does that equate to in wins as compared to say a guy like emery who has a .905 sv% over his last 75 games.

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THIS scenario would never happen

We trade Marty away at this deadline? He plays for another team for a couple of months and then resigns with us?

No chance

Of course it is an unlikely scenario, but no one would have thought Kovy was gonna "retire." Having limited resources breeds creativity.

If the team is out of the playoffs, I say he gets moved, with both parties happy to do it.(Columbus would be a great fit) If the Devils can't find a suitable back up next season, then I don't see how Marty wouldn't be considered.(unless Cory stays unsigned) Also, you can't underestimate the value of Brodeur to the marketing side of the business, so having him ride the pine may be preferred to having Kinkaid do that.

Remember we don't have a first round pick this year, sport an anemic offense lead by a 40+ UFA, have a goalie going into the last year of his deal and have nearly no assets in the minors. Someone better start getting creative because the big bosses that own this team do this exactly for a living and will not tolerate "status quo."

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id be interested to hear from the stat guys exactly how many wins Marty would cost us next year as backup. If he comes back and only gets 20 games with a .900 sv percentage, what does that equate to in wins as compared to say a guy like emery who has a .905 sv% over his last 75 games.

 

It's funny you mention this, as he's starting to make a strong case that he isn't even a viable back up, and he can't come in and play sporadically. So my guess is it would cost a handful of games when he's playing one out of every 5-6. He should just retire, at this point his best nights are league average and his worst are attrocities.

 

And the CBJ have a decent goalie tandem, broduer is going no where because no one is going to want him.

Edited by Sneax

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It's funny you mention this, as he's starting to make a strong case that he isn't even a viable back up, and he can't come in and play sporadically. So my guess is it would cost a handful of games when he's playing one out of every 5-6. He should just retire, at this point his best nights are league average and his worst are attrocities.

And the CBJ have a decent goalie tandem, broduer is going no where because no one is going to want him.

right, hence my question. Somehow I'd prefer a statistical analysis over your estimate of "a handful of games". Again, somebody specifically mentioned emery, who over the past 75 games has a .905 save percentage. So what does that mean in terms of games win/lost if you figure Cory's backup will hopefully play 20-25 games next season.

I would very much prefer if Marty retired this offseason, but I want to know what he's cost us if he didn't.

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right, hence my question. Somehow I'd prefer a statistical analysis over your estimate of "a handful of games". Again, somebody specifically mentioned emery, who over the past 75 games has a .905 save percentage. So what does that mean in terms of games win/lost if you figure Cory's backup will hopefully play 20-25 games next season.

I would very much prefer if Marty retired this offseason, but I want to know what he's cost us if he didn't.

No one can give you an exact number, because who knows how the game pans out, whatever answer you get will be a guesstimate. The only thing people can tell you is, marty will suck in some of those starts. It's another story entirley if his sucking is the reason for the losses are not.

 

Marties stats could take a serious nose dive off that low 90% save mark if he's barley playing, that's another factor. Emery is more likley to have those kind of numbers in a back up roll, marty seems like if he's not playing often could be more often than not the marty whose got some crappy .880 save percentage. Also another year, another step lost.

 

I don't think you are going to get a real answer to that question. Maybe someone like Triumph could take a stab at it with super in-depth stat crunching.

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I hope Marty doesn't read this thread. I have chuckled reading it.

I don't have to comment I was way ahead of most of you re the subject of Marty.

Broken Record

I am sorry I thought I was responding to the Marty embarrassment thread

Edited by LucifersDog

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Only place I ever saw those onsale was at the Stadium...for $600!

 

I love them too, but for nowhere near that price!!!

They're like Bway show jackets -- they're custom made.  Actors have to buy theirs  bet those guys didn't  hmmph.  Sports dudes really have no idea how easy they have it.  Yeah yeah tell it to a dancer how your body is shot at 30... whiners.

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Only place I ever saw those onsale was at the Stadium...for $600!

 

I love them too, but for nowhere near that price!!!

 

Holy sh!t!

 

I can see those jackets going for say $250, but $600?!?

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No one can give you an exact number, because who knows how the game pans out, whatever answer you get will be a guesstimate. The only thing people can tell you is, marty will suck in some of those starts. It's another story entirley if his sucking is the reason for the losses are not.

Marties stats could take a serious nose dive off that low 90% save mark if he's barley playing, that's another factor. Emery is more likley to have those kind of numbers in a back up roll, marty seems like if he's not playing often could be more often than not the marty whose got some crappy .880 save percentage. Also another year, another step lost.

I don't think you are going to get a real answer to that question. Maybe someone like Triumph could take a stab at it with super in-depth stat crunching.

I understand it would be a guesstimate ate best, but at least it would be an educated guess.

Off the top of my head: average sv% this year is .913. Obviously backups are on the lower end. You average backup may have a .907-.910. If the devils continue to average ~26 shots a game, a backup playing 25 games a season will see about 650 shots. In this case the difference between a .907 and a .900 sv% is just less than 5 goals over those 25 games. I suppose that significant but not incomprehsnibly terrible.

I don't know maybe my numbers are wrong but my feeling is Marty as a backup next year and only as a backup - no more than 25 games, will not cost us severely.

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Yes and no.  The turn has started partly because Cory has been SO lights-out lately that he hasn't given PDB any choice.  What happens if Cory has a meh game and gives up four goals?  (This happens to everyone eventually.)  I would hope PDB doesn't go running to Marty under such circumstances, but sadly I can absolutely see him doing that.  And I'll be beyond infuriated if he does.   

 

 

 

Agree, but I get the feeling Marty gets the Oilers too. 

 

Well, if Cory has a stinker, I'm sure this board would over analyze every goal against and rip him a new one, as is tradition. :giggle:  But what I'm looking at is that Cory got Dallas, Florida and Toronto, Marty got Montreal which we all knew, then Cory got Colorado, Marty got Phoenix, Cory got St Louis and Washington. The only one that REALLY doesn't make sense is the Phoenix one.

 

Heading into the break, I think Cory needs to have 5 of the 6. I expect him to get 4 of them unfortunately. If Cory gets 5 or god forbid all 6, we may have finally turned the corner on this mess. Cory has spent all season proving he's the best, and now the guys are playing for him. It's becoming his team, and Marty, Pete, and Lou need to just step back and let that happen.

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I understand it would be a guesstimate ate best, but at least it would be an educated guess.

Off the top of my head: average sv% this year is .913. Obviously backups are on the lower end. You average backup may have a .907-.910. If the devils continue to average ~26 shots a game, a backup playing 25 games a season will see about 650 shots. In this case the difference between a .907 and a .900 sv% is just less than 5 goals over those 25 games. I suppose that significant but not incomprehsnibly terrible.

I don't know maybe my numbers are wrong but my feeling is Marty as a backup next year and only as a backup - no more than 25 games, will not cost us severely.

 

But you don't know.  Brodeur is at .895 now.  Who's to say it won't be .880 next year?  He's old.  The Devils don't have a strong offense and won't have one next year either.  And you don't know - maybe Schneider struggles a bit early and Brodeur becomes the starter, AGAIN.  I just don't trust anyone involved to make the right decisions until Brodeur is gone.

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I understand it would be a guesstimate ate best, but at least it would be an educated guess.

Off the top of my head: average sv% this year is .913. Obviously backups are on the lower end. You average backup may have a .907-.910. If the devils continue to average ~26 shots a game, a backup playing 25 games a season will see about 650 shots. In this case the difference between a .907 and a .900 sv% is just less than 5 goals over those 25 games. I suppose that significant but not incomprehsnibly terrible.

I don't know maybe my numbers are wrong but my feeling is Marty as a backup next year and only as a backup - no more than 25 games, will not cost us severely.

 

I think the problem with Marty is more than just on the ice. As long as he's here, it's still looked at as his team. And he'll still be looking to start. I think this off season is time for a clean break and a stop gap backup unless they feel Kinkaid is ready.

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But you don't know.  Brodeur is at .895 now.  Who's to say it won't be .880 next year?  He's old.  The Devils don't have a strong offense and won't have one next year either.  And you don't know - maybe Schneider struggles a bit early and Brodeur becomes the starter, AGAIN.  I just don't trust anyone involved to make the right decisions until Brodeur is gone.

 

This... In bold is the worst case scenario and it's not worth that risk. There are other options out there. Now that the job is unquestionably Cory's, the cord has to be cut on Marty when the season ends.

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right, hence my question. Somehow I'd prefer a statistical analysis over your estimate of "a handful of games". Again, somebody specifically mentioned emery, who over the past 75 games has a .905 save percentage. So what does that mean in terms of games win/lost if you figure Cory's backup will hopefully play 20-25 games next season.

I would very much prefer if Marty retired this offseason, but I want to know what he's cost us if he didn't.

 

I think the fear is Marty might not even be a .900 guy next season...he could easily be an .885-.890 type.  Emery may not be anything special, but he's only 31 years old...it's probably not unreasonable to think he could be a .905-.910 guy for the next few years.  Not saying he'd be my first choice, but it's really not that hard to improve from a puck-stopping standpoint over what a 42-year-old Marty will give you. 

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But you don't know.  Brodeur is at .895 now.  Who's to say it won't be .880 next year?  He's old.  The Devils don't have a strong offense and won't have one next year either.  And you don't know - maybe Schneider struggles a bit early and Brodeur becomes the starter, AGAIN.  I just don't trust anyone involved to make the right decisions until Brodeur is gone.

 

Unfortunately, this is true.  Brodeur has meant so much to this organization over the years, and is sooo close to Lou, that it makes it almost impossible to tell him he's going to play only 10-15 games as a backup before the season starts and there will be no opportunity for him to "win" the during camp or the season. 

 

If they bring Marty back next year, we are back in the same situation as this season.  It needs to be a clean break where either (a) he retires, or (b) he is not offered a new contract.  I can't see it working any other way. 

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Brodeur is at .895 now.  

 

.899, no need to make it worse than it already is, lol

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I think the problem with Marty is more than just on the ice. As long as he's here, it's still looked at as his team. And he'll still be looking to start. I think this off season is time for a clean break and a stop gap backup unless they feel Kinkaid is ready.

this is true and that's why I said I would very much prefer Marty call it quits this offseason. I just wanted to understand why the decisive call for it amongst many. I feel it's more emotional and off ice then the actual performance. A combination of not wanting his legacy to be tarnished with an ugly end and what effect he might have in the team if he stuck around.

But that's not what some upthread have brought up, or has been discussed in large in the other silly thread about Marty. Most of this is a result of his on ice performance. If he was pulled after letting in 4 and we lost 4-3 is there this big clamor of retire Marty chants? My only point is that from a pure numbers standpoint we can get by as Marty as a backup, but I agree with triumph and you that I don't trust that to happen if he sticks around.

The problem is after every loss and especially after an ugly loss on national tv everyone scrambles to find the goat of the game, and the hive mind this board creates takes it to absurd levels against the same targets. I'm just trying to help bring some balance of rational thought.

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I understand the Marty analysis and agree with most of it, but damn the team defense was atrocious yesterday. I wonder, what can be done to address it?

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I understand the Marty analysis and agree with most of it, but damn the team defense was atrocious yesterday. I wonder, what can be done to address it?

Removing Salvador from the line-up would instantly help things on that front... Of course that isn't gonna happen though.

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Removing Salvador from the line-up would instantly help things on that front... Of course that isn't gonna happen though.

 

Gelinas deserved a demotion he was that bad yesterday...which is probably the more likely solution.  Though it's too much to hope for him getting replaced by Larsson as opposed to Harrold since Larsson's apparently still too diseased to play in the NHL.

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But you don't know.  Brodeur is at .895 now.  Who's to say it won't be .880 next year?  He's old.  The Devils don't have a strong offense and won't have one next year either.  And you don't know - maybe Schneider struggles a bit early and Brodeur becomes the starter, AGAIN.  I just don't trust anyone involved to make the right decisions until Brodeur is gone.

 

I don't trust them to make the right decisions about a lot of things these days.  Between Pete's quote about save percentage meaning nothing, Lou's comic non-handling of our defensive glut and the joint mismanagement of the roster much of what goes on is utterly mind-boggling these days.

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I understand the Marty analysis and agree with most of it, but damn the team defense was atrocious yesterday. I wonder, what can be done to address it?

the defense is not the usual problem- the devils still allow the fewest shots per game in the nhl. I think we can just scratch yesterday up to the uniqueness of the game. If they continue to give up multiple 3 on 1s over the next few games then we can say that there is a problem that needs to be addressed.

Until then, I think with Cory in net, our d limiting shots against, and our offense and power play finally coming around (3 goals a game with our usual d and goaltending is going to be enough), we're in good shape.

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Gelinas deserved a demotion he was that bad yesterday...which is probably the more likely solution. 

He gets caught so many times to give the other team a 3 on 1 or a 4 on 2 it's kills me.  And it bothers me because he can be so good and has the talent to be able to play 2 way hockey. Reminds me of Rafalski a bit.  

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the defense is not the usual problem- the devils still allow the fewest shots per game in the nhl. I think we can just scratch yesterday up to the uniqueness of the game. If they continue to give up multiple 3 on 1s over the next few games then we can say that there is a problem that needs to be addressed.

Until then, I think with Cory in net, our d limiting shots against, and our offense and power play finally coming around (3 goals a game with our usual d and goaltending is going to be enough), we're in good shape.

 

I really throw this one out.  A lot of miscues that we really haven't been seeing that much of.  I don't think everything's gone to sh!t because of it.  I don't know if they'll make the playoffs (probably comes down to the wire), but I definitely don't think they were exposed and will now fall apart.   

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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