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nmigliore

Official 2014 New York Mets Thread

1,809 posts in this topic

Well, the Super Bowl is over, which means it's officially baseball season, and about time to fire up a 2014 thread!

 

Pitchers and catchers report in 12 days. The most interesting stuff to keep an eye on between now and spring training:

 

1) The Stephen Drew pursuit, which we may or may not be in on. You can't count out Boras, who got Michael Bourn a 4 year deal around this time last February and Kyle Lohse a 3 year deal in March. Still, I'm not sure how many alternatives Drew has. Drew doesn't thrill me but he's clearly an upgrade on Tejada, and given his apparent weak market, I think a 2 year deal for $10-12M per with a 3rd year option based on Drew staying healthy makes some sense. Or maybe Sandy wasn't lying when he said they are likely out on Drew. We'll see.

 

2) The bullpen, which could really at least one decent, proven MLB arm. Fernando Rodney is clearly the top reliever left* and the rest is a mix of decent (K-Rod), wounded on the comeback trail (Betancourt, Hanrahan, Bailey), and Oliver Perez, who has actually been quite good since turning into a reliever, but we know there is no chance we sign him.

 

3) Ike Davis drama for just a little bit longer. As I've been saying, I'm not sold on Ike being here until I see him Opening Day, which means a trade in the next few weeks, or even in March, wouldn't surprise me, even if it's unlikely. If something does happen, I'd still bet on Pittsburgh given their need for a Gaby Sanchez platoon partner, plus they have some excess arms who could interest the Mets in a swap, like Jeff Locke, Stolmy Pimentel, Phil Erwin, etc. If we keep Ike, so be it, because at this point it's probably the better idea. 

 

* - That's a list of remaining reliever free agents sorted by their 2014 Steamer projections. 

Edited by nmigliore

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Good call nmig!

 

1) Get the feeling the Mets don't go this route until his price really falls (so I don't think Sandy in necessarily 100% out on Drew, but does have a value in mind that's probably lower than most people think).  I think Tejada or Quintanilla is the Opening Day SS.   

 

2) Sandy will go with question marks on this one and hope to get a pleasant surprise or two.

 

3) Agree, probably best to just keep Ike at this point and hope he FINALLY puts it all together.  In the last two seasons, he's shown the ability to hit with power, field, and get on base.  He's just ever done it all at the same time. 

 

Not sure what the projection sites are saying, but I have the Mets at 80 wins.  They'll fall just short of .500, but they'll win enough that we won't get yet another one of "That 70s Show" rerun. 

 

 

And it never happened last season, but still want to pull off a little GTG at Citi this season.  One of these years, right?

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Yeah we had half a gettogether in April last year lol...hopefully we can do at least you, me, nmig and 7 this year - all the Met board regulars.  I may wind up going the first Saturday of the year (April 5th) now that I'm taking a cursory look at the schedule since it's a Saturday afternoon game and Calendar day.  Of course it'll probably be one of the few tickets you have to pay face value to get in for this year but the snowstorms should be over with by then...RIGHT?

 

Funny thing is I was probably colder at the April game last year than I was at the outdoor game last weekend cause I was so ridiculously underdressed for 50 and windy that day.

Edited by NJDevs4978

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CR, 80 wins is fair. I have them a little bit lower than that but anything in the 75-80 win range is reasonable; a lot depends on the younger players. If they add Drew and Rodney I think .500 or better is a possibility and *perhaps* some meaningful September games, a la 2005. 

 

Hasan and I met last year at Harvey vs Strasburg in April; it was cool to finally meet him and the game was awesome. I was actually looking at that first Saturday game as well, but I might go Opening Day if I can. 

Edited by nmigliore

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Not sure if this means much, but Lucas Duda has supposedly lost 10 pounds. So maybe he'll be less of a dump truck in left.

 

Any interest in Emilio Bonifacio? Guy can pretty much be our new Justin Turner. Can play any position

Edited by '7'

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CR, 80 wins is fair. I have them a little bit lower than that but anything in the 75-80 win range is reasonable; a lot depends on the younger players. If they add Drew and Rodney I think .500 or better is a possibility and *perhaps* some meaningful September games, a la 2005. 

 

Hasan and I met last year at Harvey vs Strasburg in April; it was cool to finally meet him and the game was awesome. I was actually looking at that first Saturday game as well, but I might go Opening Day if I can. 

 

My 80 is based on optimism...Wheeler pitching well for most of the season, Ike not being a disaster through mid-June, the team remaining reasonably healthy, etc.  We've talked about this already, but I would love to see Mejia survive a full season at the major-league level. 

 

Plenty could go wrong that could plummet this team into high-60s low 70s territory (Grandy becoming Jason Bay Part II, etc), but I just don't feel like it's an everything's-going-to-go-wrong kind of season. 

 

What does everyone think?  Do we all suck it up and meet in early April? 

 

BTW I made a similar mistake once Has...in '97...it was one of those earlier warm late April/early May days (mid 70s during the day), and for some reason I wore shorts to the game (at night).  Of course the temp plummeted, and I was freezing.  At least the Mets won...they beat the Phillies.  Gregg Jefferies was on the Phils back then...during warmups some guy who was tanked kept mock cheering him every time he caught the ball (he was always a pretty lousy fielder, though he did become a passable first baseman).  Jefferies finally said something to the fan and they started yelling at each other.

 

Speaking of Jefferies, one thing the guy WAS really good at was not striking out.  In 6072 career ABs, he only struck out 348 times.  That's about two seasons' worth for a lot of hitters these days.

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Mets signed Kyle Farnsworth to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training.

 

As it usually goes with these veteran types, I would imagine he has a good chance to make the bullpen even though he's been a replacement level performer the last two years. Hopefully he's more LaTroy Hawkins than Brandon Lyon. Rubin hears that the Mets are still pursuing a "closer type." Go get Rodney!

Edited by nmigliore

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Meh, this is how the bullpen gets filled out.  Going with a lot of iffy scrap-heap types doesn't tend to lead to great results.  Maybe next year Sandy tries to get real relievers.

 

re:  Rodney, he's a little scary.  He's going to be 37 years old, he walks a ton of guys, and has had one monster season.  He did save 38 games last season, but if he's walking guys and gets off to a bad start, New York fans will chew this guy up and spit him out.  I know you love him nmig and seem to think he's a slamdunk, but he seems questionable to me. 

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Absolutely don't think he's a slamdunk; what reliever is, anyway? I even said a couple weeks ago, while I like him more than Balfour, he's definitely more volatile:

 

 

Definitely more volatility there than, say, Balfour, but he's also the better reliever.

 

 

The iffy career path, the poor control returning last year, age, etc. is a concern, but at the same time, he's definitely the best reliever out there right now; I feel confident saying that. 

Edited by nmigliore

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Absolutely don't think he's a slamdunk; what reliever is, anyway? I even said a couple weeks ago, while I like him more than Balfour, he's definitely more volatile:

 

The iffy career path, the poor control returning last year, age, etc. is a concern, but at the same time, he's definitely the best reliever out there right now; I feel confident saying that. 

 

Relievers are definitely year-to-year.  Kinda scary that he's the best of what's left.  I think I'd go one year on him, but I can't lie, he doesn't enthuse me at all. 

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Kinda scary that he's the best of what's left.  I think I'd go one year on him, but I can't lie, he doesn't enthuse me at all. 

 

I mean, among relievers with at least 80 IP over the last two seasons, this is where Rodney ranks in some major categories:

 

- 5th in ERA (1.91)

- 9th in FIP (2.47)

- 12th in xFIP (2.88)

 

And if you're into saves -- I'm not -- he trails only Jim Johnson and Craig Kimbrel since 2012. I understand the concerns about his wild track record pre-2012 and his age, but still, by any measure you want to use, there's really no arguing he's been one of the top 15 relievers in baseball across the last two seasons. 

Edited by nmigliore

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I mean, among relievers with at least 80 IP over the last two seasons, this is where Rodney ranks in some major categories:

 

- 5th in ERA (1.91)

- 9th in FIP (2.47)

- 12th in xFIP (2.88)

 

If you're worried about Rodney, it's mostly about his very iffy pre-2012 track record and age. But still, by any measure you want to use, there's really no arguing he's been one of the top 15 relievers in baseball across the last two seasons. 

 

Those numbers are HEAVILY buoyed by 2012...you almost wonder how the hell that year happened.  I can't make that much out of throwing 2012 and 2013 together.  Last season's numbers were a lot closer to what he's been for most of his career. 

 

That being said, if he repeats 2013, I'd definitely take it.

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Francesa apparently said the Mets made an offer to Stephen Drew and are continuing to negotiate over the length of the deal.

 

Jim Bowden reported yesterday that Boston offered him a multi-year deal, so it's hard to imagine him coming here short of 3 guaranteed years (way more incentive to return to Boston for 2 years vs here). I've been saying 2 years for $10-12M per with an attainable option based on him staying healthy makes sense for both sides; maybe that could do it. 

 

But then there's this:

 

#Mets source says no offer on the table for Stephen Drew at this time.

 

So back where we started: the Mets may or may not have made Stephen Drew an offer and may or may not actually be interested in him. 

Edited by nmigliore

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Who can make sense out of anything that fat moron says, between all of the stammering and "uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuhhhhhhhhhhhh"s. 

 

Guess here is Drew's agent is probably using the Mets to squeeze a little more out of the Sox.  I'm not really sure what's in it for Drew to come here.  The Mets may be ready in 2015, but it's no sure bet.  If Drew wants to win right now, he should just stay put. 

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Despite his constant needling of the Mets he doesnt outright hate the Mets like he does the Jets...and he does seem to have some sources within the org, but his track record on predicting Mets moves runs hot and cold

Today it sounded more like he was "pumping up" the Mets to go out and make more moves. Trying to inspire them to spend a little bit more money.

I think you're going to see a friendlier Mike when it comes to the Mets now that his relationship with the Yanks seems to have soured with his spirited defense of A-rod and then getting booted off of YES for the bland Michael Kay. You can bet big Mike is VERY bitter about that.

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I think you're going to see a friendlier Mike when it comes to the Mets now that his relationship with the Yanks seems to have soured with his spirited defense of A-rod and then getting booted off of YES for the bland Michael Kay. You can bet big Mike is VERY bitter about that.

 

lol good point.  Kay even tweaked Francesa in the opening moments of his show by symbolicly throwing away a Diet Coke.

 

Francesa was kind of pro-Mets in the Omar years cause they had a good relationship though he did revel in our chokes.  He was pro-Omar at least I suppose.

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lol good point.  Kay even tweaked Francesa in the opening moments of his show by symbolicly throwing away a Diet Coke.

 

Francesa was kind of pro-Mets in the Omar years cause they had a good relationship though he did revel in our chokes.  He was pro-Omar at least I suppose.

 

Kay's pretty douchey too, in his own way.  He also has the lamest home run call in all of baseball...even worse than Berman's tired it's-all-about-me "Back back back back back back back back..."

 

Fatso will always tell you he'd rather have both the Yankees AND the Mets be relevant, in that it makes his job better and more interesting to have both teams in the mix for the playoffs.   

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Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projected standings are in. Mets projected for 74 wins, 4th place in the East: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

 

Nothing terribly shocking around the rest of the league except the Dodgers with 98 wins (!) and the Pirates regressing hard. 

Edited by nmigliore

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Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projected standings are in. Mets projected for 74 wins, 4th place in the East: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

 

Nothing terribly shocking around the rest of the league except the Dodgers with 98 wins (!) and the Pirates regressing hard. 

 

I little low, but I guess you have to factor in the Harvey injury. Still it's not like they gave Harvey a lot of wins last year. I think they were something like 13-13 in his starts all of last year.

 

If d'Arnaud can finally live up to his billing at the plate, if first base is not a massive black hole (that's not asking for much), if Granderson can hit 25 out (again, not asking too much) and if they can add a Rodney or Drew...Then I think they can win at least 77-78

Edited by '7'

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Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projected standings are in. Mets projected for 74 wins, 4th place in the East: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

 

Nothing terribly shocking around the rest of the league except the Dodgers with 98 wins (!) and the Pirates regressing hard. 

 

That's going to tick a lot of Mets fans off.  Obviously Harvey getting hurt screwed things up, but no one wants to see 74 wins this season...that's going to feel like no progress.  If the Mets flirt with .500 for most of the season, and other good things happen, I think Mets fans WILL be happy with that.

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Justin Turner signed with the Dodgers.

 

I'd like to preemptively congratulate him on the game winning home run he's about to hit against the Mets this year

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Justin Turner signed with the Dodgers.

 

I'd like to preemptively congratulate him on the game winning home run he's about to hit against the Mets this year

 

Yeah, sadly that WILL probably happen. 

 

Anyway, was thinking about the state of the Mets...the rotation will likely be:

 

Wheeler

Colon

Niese

Gee

Mejia

 

And we KNOW at least two of these guys will miss significant time, which means there WILL be opportunities for both Syndergaard and Montero, possibly before the season even starts (though the Mets probably don't want to thrust either into the rotation...especially Syndergaard, who hasn't even thrown in AAA yet).  I'm guessing the first guy who gets a shot if someone goes down early is either deGrom or Dice K.

 

Those five could be pretty good, especially if Wheeler builds off last season and doesn't regress.  But of course, they all have question marks:

 

Wheeler:  still young, still prone to losing the strike zone

Colon:  not getting any younger, probably due for some regression off last season

Niese:  always misses some starts, probably won't get any better than he is right now.  Will probably always be a .500ish or slightly better starter...a good #3 or #4.

Gee:  was mostly terrific from late May on, but has yet to put a full season together of consistency

Mejia:  can he ever stay healthy for more than five minutes?

 

Also highly questionable that any of these guys reach 200 IP. 

 

This group has some nice upside, but by mid-May it could also be a trainwreck...both Gee and Niese got off to awful starts last season, Mejia could wind up on the DL at any time (if it happens again this year, I probably give up on him), and Wheeler could be fighting though growing pains.  Hard to think we won't see one or both of Syndergaard and Montero by mid-June. 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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I think the rotation will be okay, not great. To me, Gee and Niese are more like league average-ish hurlers. Colon is due to regress closer to league average (2.65 ERA versus 3.95 xFIP in 2013). Zack Wheeler, who had well-below average fielder-independent numbers in 2013 despite the decent ERA, will likely be below average if he doesn't make any strides with his K/BB. Mejia might have the biggest upside of any of the starting 5, but of course has serious durability questions. I'm optimistic on Syndergaard and Montero but they're still just pitching prospects, the former with no experience in AAA yet. 

 

I like the depth and the young arms we have here, to be clear, but I'm tempering my expectations on what they'll do next year. On the plus side, if things go right, the Mets should have plenty of trade chips to work with over the next year.

Edited by nmigliore

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Yeah, some things will go right, some will go wrong.  So overall it will probably be okay, like you're saying.  We've said it before, but I think the main goal this season should be to get Mejia through one year without landing on the DL, and Syndergaard and Montero some major-league innings when other guys inevitably miss starts, and hope both are 100% either good enough to be included in the 2015 plans or be valuable enough to be traded for someone else.

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Ralph Kiner has passed away. :(

 

The man was such a joy to have on the broadcasts and so insightful even to his last day on the job, and that was only half of his outstanding achievements -- he was a Hall of Fame ballplayer, as well. RIP Ralph. Gonna really miss his presence this season. 

Edited by nmigliore

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