Official 2014 New York Mets Thread

[nmigliore]

Wheeler isn't going to sustain that obviously but it doesn't mean he's due to have a bunch of ugly outings to "even things out", either: that's gambler's fallacy. 

 

For whatever it's worth, ZiPS rest of season thinks he'll post a 3.59 ERA while Steamer says 3.71. His overall ERA, FIP, and xFIP all hover around 3.50 on the season, so that seems pretty fair. But I'm not as interested in the actual results more than I am the underlying numbers the rest of the way (surprise surprise!); the walk issues aren't suddenly going to vanish but hopefully he keeps missing bats at a near-batter-per-inning pace with a groundball for about every 2 balls in play. I'll be very pleased with his progress this year and excited for what he can do next year if he can finish strong like that.

Edited August 6, 2014 by nmigliore

['7']

Montero into the 5th...1hit, 0ER 2BB 6K's

 

Reynolds with another hit

Edited August 6, 2014 by '7'

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Wheeler isn't going to sustain that obviously but it doesn't mean he's due to have a bunch of ugly outings to "even things out", either: that's gambler's fallacy. 

 

For whatever it's worth, ZiPS rest of season thinks he'll post a 3.59 ERA while Steamer says 3.71. His overall ERA, FIP, and xFIP all hover around 3.50 on the season, so that seems pretty fair. But I'm not as interested in the actual results more than I am the underlying numbers the rest of the way (surprise surprise!); the walk issues aren't suddenly going to vanish but hopefully he keeps missing bats at a near-batter-per-inning pace with a groundball for about every 2 balls in play. I'll be very pleased with his progress this year and excited for what he can do next year if he can finish strong like that.

 

I didn't say a bunch of ugly outings.  But it wouldn't surprise me if he has a few soon where things go the other way, where he's allowing 3 or 4 runs as opposed to 1 or 2.  Again, I'm not saying a 1.59 ERA is supposed to be sustainable, or to imply that if Zack doesn't keep that up that it's going to be some major failure on his part.  Is Zack showing signs of improvement, both in the readily available numbers and in the more underlying numbers?  For the most part, yes he is, and I think we're all pretty happy with that.  For me, it's more about people seeing the 1.59 ERA (the one stat that doesn't really fit during this run) and thinking that Zack has become this dominant pitcher seemingly overnight.  Clearly that hasn't really happened yet...even the eye test confirms that.  As Gary and Ron said on air last night, he still throws too many pitches and makes life harder on himself than it needs to be...but on the flip side, considering his issues, I do find it encouraging that he's pitched 6+ IP in seven straight starts...for a guy who's clearly prone to laboring, not being terribly efficient and is still a work in progress, the IP is a feat that should not be minimized.

 

As far as results go, it's hard to argue them...even with the Oakland disaster factored in, in seven out of his last nine starts, he's allowed 1 ER or less.  Back on June 14, for Zack to have a run like he's on now seemed like the wildest of pipe dreams at best.  And yeah, in what was clearly another punt year for Sandy and Co., Zack has shown development in 2014, and 2015 should be a potentially consistent and strong year for him.

 

------------------------------------

 

Wow for Montero...check out his last two outings:

 

14.2 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 17 K

 

I forget where I heard it, but Frank Viola said something to the effect that Montero's mixed results in the PCL and with the Mets this season had hurt his confidence and had caused him to become a tentative nibbler (one of many reasons why I hope the Vegas thing is short-lived).  Viola basically told him to believe in his stuff and to throw strikes.  He's now only walked 5 hitters and allowed 10 hits (one HR) in his last three starts (19.2 IP), and struck out 23.  Great to see Syndergaard, Montero, and Verrett (all of whom have had their frustrating moments this year) pitching well as of late.

 

And the ironic thing is, as lost and off as Montero has looked at times this season, his PCL numbers are actually pretty good:

 

74 IP, 58 H, 27 ER, 4 HR, 32 BB, 75 K, 1.22 WHIP, 3.28 ERA  

 

Looks like the next wave of young arms is making progress too...both Tyler Pill and Steven Matz have been pitching pretty well in AA.  Matz had a nice bounce-back outing after his worst AA start.  Pill is a little up there for AA (24 years old, will be 25 next May), but he was drafted out of college (4th round in 2011).  Overage Greg Peavey (just turned 26) has put up nice numbers in AA, but completely bombed when he was promoted to Vegas earlier and was demoted back to Binghamton.  Probably a good chance all three are pitching in Vegas next season, with Matz having the most upside as far as getting to the majors is concerned.   

Edited August 6, 2014 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

deGrom named NL rookie of the month

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/nym/mets-starter-jacob-degrom-tabbed-national-league-rookie-of-month-for-july?ymd=20140804&content_id=87949776

 

Has a shot at NL ROY too.  Even if he slows down a bit from here on out, he's still a great story, especially since it was all about Montero and Syndergaard last offseason, through spring training, etc.  And it's not like his minor-league numbers wowed anyone.   

 

 

Wondering if the Dodgers have any interest in Colon.  Beckett's been slowing up lately and Haren has been beyond awful over the last month or so. 

Edited August 6, 2014 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[nmigliore]

I wonder if the Mets would dump Colon and his entire remaining salary for free if a team claimed him (like the Yanks did with Thornton yesterday). I don't know if I like that idea -- I have to believe Colon is worth something -- but if I was convinced that money would go directly to LF or SS next season, I think you have to do it. I don't even know if he'll be claimed in the first place. Should be interesting.

Edited August 6, 2014 by nmigliore

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

I wonder if the Mets would dump Colon and his entire remaining salary for free if a team claimed him (like the Yanks did with Thornton yesterday). I don't know if I like that idea -- I have to believe Colon is worth something -- but if I was convinced that money would go directly to LF or SS next season, I think you have to do it. I don't even know if he'll be claimed in the first place. Should be interesting.

 

I've been wondering the same.  I agree that I do think Colon does have some value, but the Mets are effectively a small/low middle market team right now and can't try to get as much as they possibly can for him at the risk of being stuck with him.  For me, it's all about having $11 million or thereabouts to spend next season.  The Mets are in no position to have what could be about 1/8th to 1/9th of their 2015 payroll tied up in a barely-league average pitcher who may not be as "good" as he was this season...especially since they have depth (and relatively low-cost depth) in starting pitching...they don't need Colon.   

Edited August 6, 2014 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[nmigliore]

Yeah, that's what makes me lean to just dumping him. If we were the Red Sox or Dodgers, nobody is really batting an eye at owing Colon $11 million next year. We know that won't get in the way of them adding talent. But for a team like us, operating like a mid-market or smaller, that money could very well be the difference between getting something competent in LF or SS versus running out the same old crap.

Edited August 6, 2014 by nmigliore

[nmigliore]

Just thinking aloud here but crazy thing is I don't think the Mets are really that far off from fielding a pretty decent team next year. If they can find a couple league average or better players to put in LF and SS and add a couple of veteran bullpen pieces, that's a pretty great winter. 

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Wright is the big key.  2014 Wright being locked in at 3B at his salary in the years to come is going to hurt. 

 

I went over it a couple of pages back, but it looks like six bats currently in the lineup are locks to come back:  Granderson, Wright, Murph, Lagares, Duda, and d'Arnaud.  The only guys I think you know what you're getting for sure are Murph and Grandy (his overall numbers this season).  With the rest it's hard to say.  It's an iffy group...obviously, the hope is Wright bounces back, Duda continues what he's doing, d'Arnaud doesn't need any more Vegas refreshers and Lagares doesn't sink back to his 2013 season numbers. 

 

The pitching staff really has a chance to be beastly next season...a consistently slightly above-average offense might be enough to get it done.  That's why I want to see Syndergaard, Montero, and Verrett get some time up here.  The amount of young pitching this team has is scary.  It's hard not to get excited about all of these arms.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Yeah, that's what makes me lean to just dumping him. If we were the Red Sox or Dodgers, nobody is really batting an eye at owing Colon $11 million next year. We know that won't get in the way of them adding talent. But for a team like us, operating like a mid-market or smaller, that money could very well be the difference between getting something competent in LF or SS versus running out the same old crap.

 

I'm hopeful that one of these high-payroll teams in the playoff mix that needs a starting pitcher isn't put off by Colon's $11 million for 2015, but he isn't helping anyone's cause with the up-and-down performances over his last seven.  This is one of those signings that really makes you want to punch Sandy in the face, especially since it didn't take into account what was realistic for 2014 or the payroll situation...I could understand one season (and it turned out the Mets actually did need him for a while this year), but not two years...obviously, deGrom taking his chance and making the most of it makes Colon seem less relevant in hindsight, and now that the AAA guys are picking it up, it feels like Colon is getting in the way, especially since he's 100% guaranteed not to be here when the Mets are hopefully perennial contenders (by 2016 at the latest).  A lot of things didn't go to plan this season, if you really think about it, as far as the starting pitching went:

 

Mejia is no longer a starter.

Syndergaard still isn't with the big club.

Montero couldn't stick with the big club and is only now once again starting to look like the Montero who had everyone intrigued and excited.  Had control issues that seemingly came out of nowhere.

Dice K got 9 more starts than the Mets wanted him to.

deGrom is looking like a candidate for NL Rookie of the Year. 

 

Gee and Niese missed starts, but that's what Gee and Niese do, so that can't be considered any great surprise. 

Edited August 6, 2014 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[NJDevs4978]

dp

Edited August 7, 2014 by NJDevs4978

[NJDevs4978]

Gee and Niese missed starts, but that's what Gee and Niese do, so that can't be considered any great surprise. 

 

I really really want to defend Niese, he's a young-ish lefty who took a hometown discount to stay with a loser...but he's been making it pretty hard to not jump off the bandwagon since the All-Star break.  It would have been ideal to trade Gee a couple years ago but his shoulder/blood clot whatever it was issue he had at the end of the season derailed any hope of getting real value back for him.

[nmigliore]

but he's been making it pretty hard to not jump off the bandwagon since the All-Star break. 

 

But it's only been 4 starts since the break, and one of those was actually not that bad (8 IP, 3 ER, 0 BB, 4 K vs SF last Friday). Why should a few rough starts undo what he did (2.96 ERA, 2.6 K/BB) in his previous 17 starts this year? I can understand being down on Niese for his durability issues and/or declining velocity but seems weird to be ready to jump ship over a few bad starts. 

Edited August 7, 2014 by nmigliore

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

I really really want to defend Niese, he's a young-ish lefty who took a hometown discount to stay with a loser...but he's been making it pretty hard to not jump off the bandwagon since the All-Star break.  It would have been ideal to trade Gee a couple years ago but his shoulder/blood clot whatever it was issue he had at the end of the season derailed any hope of getting real value back for him.

 

Niese didn't really take a discount...he was coming off an 11-11, 4.40 ERA season in 2011 where he had gotten hurt in August (he missed the rest of that season), and at that point, his career numbers were pretty underwhelming.  It was hard to say what he was going to be...Mets rolled the dice and took the bigger risk on that one, especially since the bigger money would be coming later in his deal:

 

http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/7775698/jon-niese-new-york-mets-agree-5-year-25m-deal

 

To his credit, he did improve, and overall has been better than he was prior to the signing, which is what the Mets were banking on.  But I've been done with Niese since he had his shoulder issues in the spring...guy is too damned fragile, and though he's had nice stretches the past few seasons, he's not so good that he should just be an automatic re:  the Mets' plans for 2015. 

 

 

But it's only been 4 starts since the break, and one of those was actually not that bad (8 IP, 3 ER, 0 BB, 4 K vs SF last Friday). Why should a few rough starts undo what he did (2.96 ERA, 2.6 K/BB) in his previous 17 starts this year? I can understand being down on Niese for his durability issues and/or declining velocity but seems weird to be ready to jump ship over a few bad starts. 

 

It's not just a few bad starts.  His ERA has been steadily climbing since 5/5.  His numbers over his last 8 starts are pretty bad, especially with runs scored being down around the league:

 

43.1 IP, 56 H, 30 R, 26 ER, 5 HR, 12 BB, 28 K, 1.57 WHIP, 5.40 ERA

 

I really hope Gee and Niese get hot, because this season has sucked for both of them, as far as their trade value goes.  Both of them got hurt, again.  Both have velocity issues.  Both are saving their worst for last (though they still have time to recover). 

 

All this being said, I still think there's room for one of them here as the 5th guy who occasionally gets his turn skipped.  You have to figure that Harvey, Wheeler, and deGrom are locks to be in the rotation next season (as much as pitchers can ever be considered to be locks these days).  I'm sure the Mets would love either Syndergaard or Montero to come up north with the big boys out of spring training...of course, the Mets still might be stuck with Colon, which would be a disaster for no other reason than the money he's owed.

 

Speaking of Colon, not that I have any idea whether or not the Dodgers have any interest, but Dan Haren sure didn't help our cause...he was very good last night (7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER).     

Edited August 7, 2014 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Another good AA start for Greg Peavey, which is nothing new this season.  He's now 9-2 with a 2.58 ERA for Binghamton, and all of the other numbers pass the eye test (except for the age...he's 26). 

 

One of those guys I wouldn't mind seeing on the Mets in September, mostly because he's getting up there and has had a rough go of it in Vegas (though he wasn't nearly as bad there last season as he was this season).  Only so many spots to bring guys up though.

[NJDevs4978]

But it's only been 4 starts since the break, and one of those was actually not that bad (8 IP, 3 ER, 0 BB, 4 K vs SF last Friday). Why should a few rough starts undo what he did (2.96 ERA, 2.6 K/BB) in his previous 17 starts this year? I can understand being down on Niese for his durability issues and/or declining velocity but seems weird to be ready to jump ship over a few bad starts. 

 

I just mean off the bandwagon in terms of thinking we need to keep him because he's a lefty that can give us a little variety with all our power-throwing righties in the system.  But if you're going to miss several starts every year then you'd better not be as inconsistent as Niese when you can actually pitch.  Every time it looks like he's about to turn the corner into being a upper-rotation starter (2012 or earlier this year), bang he has a season like 2013 or a stretch like this.  Though for all we know he's still hurt/feeling the effects of 'shoulder weakness' since he hasn't even been competitive in three of his four starts since coming off the DL.  

Edited August 7, 2014 by NJDevs4978

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

I just mean off the bandwagon in terms of thinking we need to keep him because he's a lefty that can give us a little variety with all our power-throwing righties in the system.  But if you're going to miss several starts every year then you'd better not be as inconsistent as Niese when you can actually pitch.  Every time it looks like he's about to turn the corner into being a upper-rotation starter (2012 or earlier this year), bang he has a season like 2013 or a stretch like this.  Though for all we know he's still hurt/feeling the effects of 'shoulder weakness' since he hasn't even been competitive in three of his four starts since coming off the DL.  

 

Niese was actually quite good from May 16 on last season.  2.82 ERA in 16 starts.  He really hasn't been "bad" as far as actual performance goes from 2012-2014 (like I pointed out, he's had extended good stretches), but he clearly has trouble getting through a major-league season without breaking down.  I get the feeling that's only going to get worse...seems like it's only a matter of time before he misses a full season or a good portion of one. 

[nmigliore]

I can't believe TC just pulled Lagares for Young defensively, especially in this situation.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

D'oh, didn't even realize this was an afternoon game today.

 

First home run off deGrom in over two months. 

 

Murph up to .306...on another one of those locked-in streaks he gets into.  One big difference this season...no real prolonged invisible streaks.  He's been pretty steady all season at the plate.

 

And I know decent backup catchers are hard to come by, but can the Mets get someone better than Anthony Recker?  He is an awful hitter.

Edited August 7, 2014 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[nmigliore]

Mets pitchers just can't throw to bases, it's amazing.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

I can think of a lot of other words to go with amazing. 

 

Mets get out of the 9th, but we know where this is headed...seems like the Met bats disappear from this time on. 

Edited August 7, 2014 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Well, looks like the Dodgers definitely won't be in on Colon now:

 

http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/mlb/story/_/id/11322352/los-angeles-dodgers-acquire-rhp-roberto-hernandez-philadelphia-Phillies

 

Arrrrgh...

[NJDevs4978]

I can't believe TC just pulled Lagares for Young defensively, especially in this situation.

 

The box score says it was a double switch...but yeah you're not normally double switching out your best defensive player with a one-run lead late.

[nmigliore]

Welp, hard to win when you can't score. Bullpen was going toss up zeros for only so long.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Is there some unwritten law that Wright has to bat third everyday?  The guy has done so little.