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nmigliore

Official 2014 New York Mets Thread

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Offensive is down a very slight tick but the Mets' offense has still been bad relative to league average. wRC+ adjusts for parks/leagues and that puts the Mets at 29th in MLB with a 22% below average offense. The Padres at 25% below are the worst.

 

Gee was terrific yesterday but I still pause with him. The defensive-independent numbers just aren't that great. Including 2013 with his start to 2014, he's got a solid 3.49 ERA, which is basically league average after you adjust for the NL and Citi Field, but a 4.06 FIP, 4.10 xFIP, and 4.11 SIERA, all of which are significantly below average. Maybe he'll prove to be an outlier/exception who outperforms his defensive-independent numbers but I'm not ready to go there yet based on that 1+ year sample. The numbers aren't exactly trending in the right direction, either: his K/BB is trending down, contact rate up, velocity down after peaking in 2012, and the homeruns in 2013 and 2014 are up compared to 2012 and his overall career.

 

K/BB

2012: 3.34

2013: 3.02

2014: 2.08

 

Contact Percentage

2012: 76.8%

2013: 80.7%
2014: 85.9%

 

Average 4-Seam Fastball Velocity (BrooksBaseball.net Data)

2012: 91.26

2013: 90.19

2014: 89.73

 

HR/9

2012: 0.98

2013: 1.09

2014: 1.11

Edited by nmigliore

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All the numbers point to the Mets being bad offensively, both traditional and sabes.  The one thing they've managed to do is score a decent amount of runs for how bad they are (which one can't help but wonder how long they'll manage that feat if things don't change soon).

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Gee since last May 30 of last season:

 

28 starts

 

190 IP, 167 H, 58 ER, 21 HR, 43 BB, 132 K, 2.75 ERA, 12-6 record (team went 16-12 in his starts)

 

He's been pretty consistent in that time frame...he's only given up more than 3 ER in 9 of those starts, and only 5 ER twice.

 

Not to mention the sample sizes you're presenting aren't exactly equal:  2012 consists of 17 starts, 2013 consists of 33 starts, and 2014 isn't even into May yet (6 starts).  And as we know, in 2013 he was different pitcher prior to May 30 then he was from May 30 on.  I think you've got to give it at least until mid-season to start trying to make any declarations based on the numbers you've presented.  Last season, his velocity was down early, and I'll be the first to admit I was deeply concerned about him when he was 2-6 with a 6.34 ERA, and was looking every bit as bad as those numbers would suggest.  I'm not saying he's now going to rattle off several good seasons in a row (really hard to do that with ANY pitchers these days it seems), but that 28-start period I've referenced is pretty impressive, even if there's ways to pick it apart and make it look worse than it's really been.       

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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They're trying to get it in during this cold, rainy mini monsoon of sorts. Let's hope we can get through 5 with the lead and they just call it. Ugly ugly looking game

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Gotta wonder what TC is thinking sometimes...Niese has already had two MRIs this season and isn't exactly known for his durability, yet TC sends him out there for the 7th with a five-run lead so that Niese can finish the game with 108 pitches thrown...after an off-day no less, when the bullpen has gotten some rest. 

 

But good game for Niese (hope there's no ill-effects). 

 

Team ERA has been dropping (now down to 3.57)...still below the current NL average of 3.47, and I know there's much more indicative numbers that take more into account than simple ERA does, but they've had a nice run since that 14-2 bombing...only 38 runs allowed in 14 GP since.  The Mets are 10-4 in those games, and have outscored their opponents 59-38.  Pretty nice run. 

 

Pitching numbers definitely have the chance to take a pretty severe beating though in the next five games...one more game in the Phillie bandbox, and then four in good ol' Colorado. 

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btw I decided to go to next Friday's game so if anyone wants an impromptu meetup lemme know.  I'll be in 101...not a fan of the t-shirt giveaway lol but I can't exactly go Sunday and am busy Saturday night too so it had to be Friday and I did want to go to one of the Phillie games.

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Mets are getting goofed on for this e-mail they sent out (I was one of the recipients):

 

 

Hi there,

There's something important that our fellow Mets want to say to you, the fans.

You'll find it below. It comes from the heart.

We hope you'll read it and add your name to ours if you agree:

Mets.com/TrueNewYorker

We all have a special relationship with this team. Let’s show that to the world.


Keith and Ron

 

To True New Yorkers -

The victory you earn is sweeter than the victory you're given.

When we won in '69 and '86, we, the players, didn't do it on our own. We made history together -- players and fans -- through a gritty, even stubborn, belief in this club against all the odds.

When we've won, we've proved through the way we did it that true New Yorkers are Mets fans.

So today we're issuing a call to all Mets fans: Show your New York Mets pride -- stand up and say you're a true New Yorker.

As players, we can tell you that what happens in the clubhouse and what happens in the stands -- players and fans together, believing in each other -- makes a tremendous difference with what happens on the field.

Your support matters; we wouldn't have won without you. So we're calling on you to give today's club the same chance we had.

If you agree that the fans have a role to play in making amazing things happen, add your name to this letter:

Mets.com/TrueNewYorker

One fan -- maybe you -- will present the signatures on this letter and the messages from fans to the team, before the Mets' first Subway Series game at Citi Field. If you add your name, it could be you.

We'll see you there. Let's Go Mets!

-- Keith Hernandez, Ron Darling, Cleon Jones, Ed Charles, Jerry Koosman, and Doc Gooden

 

 

Of course, the '84 Mets had won 90 games and saw Dwight Gooden and Ron Darling pitch successfully in their first full seasons in the majors, and the '85 Mets saw the addition of Gary Carter, had won 98 games, and had been in it until the very end, so it wasn't like Met fans had some stubborn belief in the '86 Mets...yeah, it got scary in the playoffs that year for sure, but when you see your team win 296 games in a three-year period, suffice it to say fans are going to believe a hell of a lot more.  There was a steady build of goodwill through the winning, and the obvious aggression of Frank Cashen and the Met front office in doing what they needed to, to go out and get whatever pieces they felt they needed.

 

Mets fans have plenty of reason to be skeptical with regards to running out and buying tickets right now.  The last several seasons have been brutal:  two epic collapses followed by five straight seasons of less than 80 wins...and the prediction by both "experts" and fans called for about the same this year (70-79 wins).  The Mets have made the playoffs exactly ONCE in the past 13 seasons, and they've finished with losing seasons in eight of them.  At various times, they've come off as amateurish, befuddled, completely out of touch, and (somewhat unfairly) penny-pinching, small-thinking cheapskates.  The 15-11 start is definitely terrific and a wonderful surprise, but Met fans are not dummies...the moves that Sandy made are not really paying off at all (though Colon has been pretty good), the payroll is absurdly low for this market, and there's definitely reasons to believe that this .577 pace (good for 93 wins if it continues) is a mirage.  This comes off as a sad attempt to say "See, told you we'd be good!  Now show up and watch!"  Like I've said, it's definitely been fun, but the Mets are winning due to good starting pitching (that should continue, though pitchers have ways of not remaining healthy) and, other than that, mostly in spite of themselves...their offensive numbers, other than runs scored, are abysmal. 

 

Anyway, the point of all of this is that it's going to take a hell of a lot more than 26 games played in lousy April weather and a letter written by some PR dork to get Met fans out to Citi.  Met fans ALWAYS want to believe (we wouldn't stick by this franchise the way we do otherwise), but we need reasons to do it.  Once they give them to us, we'll be more than happy to buy more tickets.        

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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People are pissed that the "TrueNewYorker" thing alienates the NJ/CT/out-of-NY fanbase but jeez who cares - I'm from NJ and I have no reaction to it. It's clearly a play off of Granderson's "true New Yorkers are Mets fans" comment. 

 

Stupid marketing campaigns like this will do nothing. Winning brings fans (and not just one good month of it, especially given the last 5 years), simple as that.

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People are pissed that the "TrueNewYorker" thing alienates the NJ/CT/out-of-NY fanbase but jeez who cares - I'm from NJ and I have no reaction to it. It's clearly a play off of Granderson's "true New Yorkers are Mets fans" comment. 

 

Stupid marketing campaigns like this will do nothing. Winning brings fans (and not just one good month of it, especially given the last 5 years), simple as that.

 

I have to admit, the "alienating" of non-NY Met fans never even crossed my mind as a reason to think this marketing campaign was lame...the team plays in NY, I totally get the "true New Yorkers" thing (with Grandy's comments also being a tie-in).  I don't know why some fans would take that at a slight.   

 

But yeah, start winning or least show fans that you're TRYING to, and they'll start coming back. 

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People are pissed that the "TrueNewYorker" thing alienates the NJ/CT/out-of-NY fanbase but jeez who cares - I'm from NJ and I have no reaction to it. It's clearly a play off of Granderson's "true New Yorkers are Mets fans" comment. 

 

Stupid marketing campaigns like this will do nothing. Winning brings fans (and not just one good month of it, especially given the last 5 years), simple as that.

 

it's a bit overblown, honestly in a week-10 days everybody will forget about this TrueNewYorker campaign.

 

It's hasn't received good PR, but when it's the Mets we're talking about this is just a little pin prick compared to the other sh!t we've had to deal with (shirtless Bernazard, Castillo drop etc)

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it's a bit overblown, honestly in a week-10 days everybody will forget about this TrueNewYorker campaign.

 

It's hasn't received good PR, but when it's the Mets we're talking about this is just a little pin prick compared to the other sh!t we've had to deal with (shirtless Bernazard, Castillo drop etc)

 

It's more of a cumulative trauma effect.  No, it's not the biggest hit nor the most painful, but it just comes off as ridiculous.  If the Mets are 10+ games over .500 in mid-July and looking like they can really contend for a WC spot, then send the letter.  They have to know that one pretty good month isn't going to sway a fanbase that is down on both the owners and the GM, especially when 2013 was supposed to be the beginning of the team coming out of its spending doldrums.

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Great article by Mike Vaccaro on how stupid and clueless the Mets' "braintrust" is.  What is truly "amazin" is that even when the Mets are surprising us on the field and giving us a little enjoyment, here comes the idiot brigade to trample all over it and remind us all that the Wilpon-owned Mets will always find new and unforeseen ways to make their franchise look amateur and buffoonish.  Keep up the great work Freddy and Jeffy!

 

http://nypost.com/2014/04/30/clueless-mets-loyalty-letter-is-an-affront-to-real-fans/

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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btw I decided to go to next Friday's game so if anyone wants an impromptu meetup lemme know. I'll be in 101...not a fan of the t-shirt giveaway lol but I can't exactly go Sunday and am busy Saturday night too so it had to be Friday and I did want to go to one of the Phillie games.

My wife's out of town this weekend, so I might grab a cheapo for a game on Saturday or Sunday (even though I'm a Yankee fan I prefer Citi Field).

Let me know if anyone here might also be in attendance either of those days.

EDIT: stupid me I meant next weekend, and it would be Saturday since Sunday is Mother's Day

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Edited by Daniel

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Wish I could make it...would still be up for a proper tailgate if anyone else here is on a Saturday at some point, if anyone else is. 

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Great article by Mike Vaccaro on how stupid and clueless the Mets' "braintrust" is.  What is truly "amazin" is that even when the Mets are surprising us on the field and giving us a little enjoyment, here comes the idiot brigade to trample all over it and remind us all that the Wilpon-owned Mets will always find new and unforeseen ways to to make their franchise look amateur and buffoonish.  Keep up the great work Freddy and Jeffy!

 

http://nypost.com/2014/04/30/clueless-mets-loyalty-letter-is-an-affront-to-real-fans/

 

I mean I really could care less how bufffonish the Mets' PR department comes off as, but this comes off as a cross between looking to have a pep rally and simaltenously taking people to task for being skepitcal of the organization.  Fans believe because they want to believe, or have tangible reasons to, not because they're told to by corporate schmucks who keep proving by the year they don't 'get it'.  The fact they twisted the arm of all these players to 'sign' their petition smacks of having their feathers ruffled by Mookie Wilson's recent comments about how the Mets have ignored their past.  

 

This part of the article was especially true:

 

As one 15-year season-ticket holder emailed me: “Tone deaf, tone blind, tone dumb. Emphasis on dumb.”

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it's a bit overblown, honestly in a week-10 days everybody will forget about this TrueNewYorker campaign.

 

It's hasn't received good PR, but when it's the Mets we're talking about this is just a little pin prick compared to the other sh!t we've had to deal with (shirtless Bernazard, Castillo drop etc)

 

It's more laughable than anything else, indiciative once again of how this organization acts like they should be entitled to receive blind support as the team keeps losing and payroll keeps decreasing.  What could they possibly have thought they were going to accomplish by this?  

 

Even Evan Roberts on WFAN got one of these dopey letters and he already is a season ticket holder :lol:

Edited by NJDevs4978

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Colon looks like he's going to be a Bronson Arroyo-type here...not particularly great stuff, but will find a way to be competitive in a lot of games.  But occasionally, he's going to have some truly fugly starts that hurt his overall numbers (and of course, pitching in Colorado never helps).  If he stays healthy, makes 33 starts or so and pitches well enough for his team to have a chance to win in 20-25 of them, guess we live with it. 

 

Wright's numbers keep getting worse...now down to a .252 BA, .303 OB%, .306 SLG%, .610 OB+SLG.  His stinking up the joint isn't getting much notice yet because the team has a winning record and thru 4/21 some of his numbers looked good (like his BA...his RBI total is still pretty good too), and guys like Granderson are getting more of the "awful at the plate" focus, but David is in one hell of a slump since 4/22:

 

3-for-31 (.097 BA), 1 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 9 K 

 

Hope he snaps out of it soon...Mets aren't going to be able to survive him being invisible forever.     

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Hanrahan signs with the Tigers. Sandy probably thinks the bullpen is fine because of the last couple weeks of April. Yeah okay, we'll see what happens once Torres' and Germen's arms fall off from abuse and Farnsworth implodes.

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Hanrahan signs with the Tigers. Sandy probably thinks the bullpen is fine because of the last couple weeks of April. Yeah okay, we'll see what happens once Torres' and Germen's arms fall off from abuse and Farnsworth implodes.

 

This is where the 15-12 start can almost be "bad" (though I would MUCH rather have had this nice start over the alternative).  I think Sandy sees the record and thinks everything's swell, but like you allude to, it feels like a house of cards right now.  Sandy should've signed Hanrahan...the Mets need arms in the 'pen, and I'd like to have quantity there.   

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Wheeler not pitching well, but also having some bad luck.  One of those games where you see how much fight he has in him. 

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How come the Mets' offense can't hit at Coors?  I guess even the ballpark can't turn chicken **** into filet mignon.

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How come the Mets' offense can't hit at Coors?  I guess even the ballpark can't turn chicken **** into filet mignon.

 

Yeah, kinda like CitiField...other teams are better at hitting home runs there than the Mets are.

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Ruben fvcking Tejada.  ARGH!

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yea the one chance we had to get back into it and Tejada grounds into a DP. Also on the two Tulowitzki rbi hits early on I have no idea why he was so shaded up the middle. Isn't Tulo a pull hitter? Tejada should've been positioned better to field both of them

 

I was going to make a post about establishing a red line with Granderson, since his average is about what a pitcher would give you in close to 28 games of regular AB's, but he goes and hits a HR today to buy himself more time. I honestly hope he starts to pull out of it, but I worry he'll just follow it up with an 0-12 7k stretch or something. I'm getting a bit concerned that Granderson is finished as a major league hitter...and that he'll never pull out of it.

 

what a nightmare series this is turning out to be. But things are sort of normalizing for the Mets

 

also Hanrahan signed with Detroit. Very friendly contract.

Edited by '7'

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We always seem to have one utter blowup of a series against Colorado every year with the consolation it usually causes a memorable Francesa on-air meltdown.  In 2011 and 12 we got swept in four-game series at Citi Field (though we actually won the Coors series).  Last year we got tatooed three of four in Coors with only Jeremy Hefner winning the last game.

Edited by NJDevs4978

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