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nmigliore

Official 2014 New York Mets Thread

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Sandy Alderson, the best!

 

http://nypost.com/2014/02/19/ike-davis-still-has-a-suitor-in-the-orioles/

 

This is just terrible. I long proposed such a one-for-one swap because it made so much sense for both sides. But nah, Sandy wanted more; of course he did. 

 

I can't get behind Doofus being handed the first-base job, and that's what would've happened if this deal was made. 

 

Beyond that, I can see the arguments for it and against it.  Joyce can get on base a bit, has some power...I'm guessing he's a pretty "meh" fielder though?

 

I'm as critical of Sandy as anyone is at times, but I can understand why he's often trying to get one more thing...he still doesn't have much in the farm re:  position players, and the financial situation with the Mets continues to be iffy, meaning he probably won't have much of an opportunity to go out and buy anything of significance (not without overpaying, anyway).  Is Joyce being here really going to make or break the Mets?     

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This deal should've been a no-brainer. Joyce is simply a better overall player than Ike is, here is how they compare since 2012: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=3353,8433

 

The Mets have an excess of 1B. They have a big need for OF help, despite the Young (free agent after 2014) and Granderson signings. It's an easy, sensible match. Joyce isn't great, but why does he have to be? He's a decent player (which Ike probably isn't) under control for a couple more years at a cheap price. 

 

Will it make or break the team? Probably not in 2014, but yeah, it could hurt in 2015, when this team is scrambling to find outfielders (again!) while Ike is being non-tendered after a miserable year. But that's completely missing the point - it's ridiculous to evaluate the validity of making a move by whether or not it is "make or break" to the roster. That seems to be the attitude of this regime and it's a pretty good way to remain in a loop of mediocrity like we've been stuck in the past 5 years.

 

The state of the farm's position player group just enhances the reasons to make this trade, by the way. Joyce ADDRESSES the position player need by dealing away a player who, 1) factually, has been bad the last two seasons, and 2) factually, for his career, hasn't been any better as a hitter than the guy who would replace him (Duda).

 

This was an easy way to make a simple upgrade but nah, Sandy has no interest in that!

Edited by nmigliore

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I understand where you're coming from, but I think Joyce probably isn't going to get any better than what he already is.  I think Ike can get better (though I can be proven horribly wrong on that). 

 

Mets don't really have an excess of first baseman...Doofus blows and Satin has a lot of limitations, though he's an easy guy to root for.  Ike probably has the highest upside of all of them, but who knows if he actually finds it.  It's this year or never for Ike...if he gets off to another bad start, I'm done with him for good. 

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I can see why people prefer Ike to Duda, I do. But like I've brought up before, let's not forget these numbers: 

 

Duda, career: .246/.342/.424, 115 wRC+

Ike, career: .242/.334/.434, 112 wRC+

 

There just isn't any evidence that suggests Ike is clearly the superior player. None. In fact, on top of owning slightly better career numbers, Duda has been the better hitter if you look at the two most recent seasons: 103 wRC+ for Ike, 110 for Duda. 

 

Moving Ike for a reliever? No thanks, and that's why I've been glad he was brought back (before this Joyce news, anyway). But if the Mets could've dealt him (or Duda for that matter) for someone of Joyce's caliber, again, it's a no-brainer to me, and Sandy deserves criticism for being his typical passive, arrogant self. 

 

Eric Young Jr. is looking like the starting LF, by the way, I'm sure you'll enjoy that. Here are the 2013 park/league-adjusted offensive numbers (using wRC+) followed by their career offensive numbers of the possible configurations with or without Ike/Joyce.

 

With Ike

1B, Ike: 90 wRC+, 112 wRC+

LF, Young Jr.: 78 wRC+, 77 wRC+

 

With Joyce

1B, Duda: 120 wRC+, 115 wRC+

LF, Joyce: 112 wRC+, 120 wRC+

 

It's not obvious which is the better one? I don't think Ike's "upside" is nearly enough to warrant starting Young Jr. in LF. 

Edited by nmigliore

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EY starting in left is absolutely ridiculous, that I'll give you 100%.  Looks like one good month continues to buy EY a lot more currency than he deserves with this team, and I don't get that at ALL.

 

Good news is all EY has to do is be the EY he was for most of last season, without that one big month propping up his numbers, and even Sandy should able to see that he's not the future in LF.  

 

As this is 2013, Part 2, I am willing to give Ike the chance to prove himself.  If the Mets were really trying to contend this season, I can see why you'd want the Joyce combo over the Ike combo, but I just really believe Duda is a disaster waiting to happen, even if his career wRC+ is better than Ike's to date.  And a team that considers itself a true contender wouldn't even have EY in the picture as an everyday player.  Like I've said, that can't possibly last for long.  I'm still at a loss as to how a GM looks at how awful EY's numbers were from 7/19 on and thinks he's not a serious part of the problem (especially for a guy who's supposed to get on base, which he didn't)...he hit .228 w/an OB% well under .300.  BB rate went down and his K rate went up in his time as a Met too.  The most compelling part of what you're bringing to the table here nmig is that the Joyce-Duda combo gets EY the hell of out here.  Hard to argue against that. 

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Yep, trust me, I dislike EY just as much as you. Given the lack of leadoff hitter options elsewhere, he'll absolutely be the leadoff hitter again, if he starts. Oh joy -- a guy with a career .663 OPS set up to receive the most plate appearances on the team! 

 

Hopefully the front office comes to their senses and realizes EY is nothing more than a pinch-runner who should ride the bench. For all the talk that Lagares isn't much of a hitter, his wRC+ last season (75) was not much different than EY's (78), and we all know how much of a superior defensive player Lagares is. Lagares is also much younger and had just 17 games in AAA under his belt before coming up, meaning there are some reasons to believe Lagares could improve at the plate this season, softening the blow his defensive metrics take from regression. 

 

I understand this is going to be a lot like 2013 Part II (couldn't agree more with that depiction), but we know what EY is, there is just no need for him to start. Lagares is the guy they need to get a long look at and see if he's an acceptable starter in CF or just a good glove guy who falls too short at the plate. It will go a long way in determining whether we're in the market for 1 or 2 outfielders next winter.

 

Cesar Puello is one guy to keep an eye on. He won't be a factor right out of the gate -- he'll go straight to Las Vegas -- but if the Mets are struggling for an acceptable amount of offense out of LF or CF come June or July, he could get the call. Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus recently put together his Mets' Top 10 List, and Puello ranked 7th. In the caption was an accurate description that sums up Puello really well: "I had a scouting director put a future 65 grade (future All Star) on Cesar Puello. When asked if he would reach that ceiling: 'Who the hell knows?'"

Edited by nmigliore

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Good news is EY should play himself out of the starting lineup within 4-6 weeks.  For some reason, last season it seemed to take EVERYONE associated with the Mets (even the broadcasters) a long time to catch onto the fact that he really wasn't doing very much for an extended period of time after his hot start...it wasn't really until September that you'd actually hear that being acknowledged...it was like no one wanted to believe or admit that EY had turned back into EY again.  

 

The ONLY reason he's being thought of as a leadoff hitter is because he has speed.  That's it.  There is NO reason to put him in the leadoff spot otherwise...he's much more of an 8th-place hitter, with his numbers. 

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Ike drama!

 

http://metsblog.com/metsblog/ike-davis-had-injury-in-2013-didnt-tell-mets/

 

Check out the audio in there, some heated stuff, sorta. 

 

Mike Puma looks and acts exactly like what you'd expect him to:  an arrogant little dweeb who was probably always the last one picked (if he ever was picked) in every sporting event when he was a kid, and now he's going to hide behind his pencil and "creds" (you write for a fvcking second-rate tabloid rag Mike, you're not a big deal and you never will be) and be a smart ass.  "Revenge" of the nerd. 

 

That being said, can't help but wonder if NY and what comes with it is starting to get to Ike a bit.  It definitely isn't for everyone.   

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Well listen, nothing surprises you with how fragile pitchers are in general, but hopefully this is nothing serious

 

I hope this doesn't mean Matsuzaka for an extended amount of time :- P

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Yeah I think the one "good" that could come out of this is Mejia's odds of making the rotation getting a boost. I will seriously flip sh!t if Niese misses time and they go with Lannan AND Dice-K in the rotation, though. 

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Well this isn't good:

 

Jon Niese is going back to NYC for an MRI. His left shoulder is sore. Different area than the rotator cuff he partially tore last summer.

 

Sigh.

 

Not that big of a surprise, unfortunately.  Niese isn't exactly durable.  He's never made more than 30 starts in any given season, and hasn't sniffed 200 IP either.  So hard to find pitchers who can actually stay healthy these days.  Funny how with all of the arm-babying that goes on, how guys seem to be getting hurt more than ever. 

 

Anyway, what this means is someone is about to get an opportunity.  deGrom maybe?  Syndergaard and Montero probably don't get call-ups until later.

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Anyway, what this means is someone is about to get an opportunity.  deGrom maybe?  Syndergaard and Montero probably don't get call-ups until later.

 

I think this essentially locks in one of the veterans making it (Dice-K or Lannan), barring a hideous spring. The other spot SHOULD go to Mejia now, but we'll see. Again, I'll go nuts if Lannan AND Dice-K make it. That would be totally inexcusable unless injuries happen. 

 

I really hope Niese is alright. Shoulder injuries can be frightening, way more than elbow injuries. 

Edited by nmigliore

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I know Dice-K is mildly intriguing because of the way he pitched at the end of last year, but I would much rather see Mejia (who I had penciled in anyway...it's time to find out if he can last through a major league season, and consistently get hitters out) and deGrom over Lannan and Dice-K types.  In 2013, Part 2, it's about answering questions...basically what the Mets failed to do after Part 1. 

 

Anyway, assuming the black plague doesn't strike, to start the season (in no particular order), I'd like to see:

 

Colon

Gee

Wheeler

Mejia

deGrom

 

I know this won't happen, even though Lannan is a borderline zilch who is what he is.  You're not catching lightning in a bottle with him...what's the point?

 

I guess Torres could be a starting candidate, but I'd rather see him in the bullpen at this point.

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I agree, CR. If I had my druthers I would probably go with Mejia and Montero. I really think Montero could step into an MLB rotation right now and be solid (not necessarily related, but Baseball America just recently ranked Montero the #68 prospect in all of baseball*).

 

But the veterans seem to usually have the edge for roster spots in the spring, and I'm sure service time will be a factor, where keeping Montero and/or deGrom down delays their free agency and effects their arbitration scale (Super Two). Now that there could be two open rotation spots instead of one, I'd be stunned if one didn't go to Lannan/Dice-K, but I can sadly accept that reality. I won't accept both of them making it over one of the young arms, though. 

 

*: Other Mets on BA's Top 100 include Syndergaard at #16 and the team's 2013 1st round pick Dom Smith at #92.

Edited by nmigliore

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Service time is why I didn't go with Montero.  No way the Mets give up that year of control, but maybe they would with deGrom. 

 

Unfortunately, we both know how this works...Lannan or Dice-K is getting a spot.  I don't see how one of them doesn't.  I could understand that a lot better if the Mets were truly on the outskirts of contention, but they're not.  Find out what the young arms can do.  Maybe deGrom fails massively at this point, but I just don't need to see guys who don't figure into 2015 and beyond delaying or getting in the way of guys who might have a future here.

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It sounds like Flores is going to get a legit look at SS this spring, since the front office remains uninspired by Tejada: http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/81669/wilmer-to-get-legit-look-tejadas-job-for-now

 

Flores is not a SS. Nobody felt he was when he was 16 and they certainly don't now. He hasn't played the position in 3 years. He's lean but unusually tall for the position and got the nickname "Tortuga" (tortoise) for how slow he is. I read and follow tons of mainstream prospect writers and not ONE has believed or quoted a scout as believing Flores can play SS. I don't like Tejada much more than anyone else does, but I do feel like he's the best option in camp. Putting Flores at SS sounds all fun and different because he's not Tejada, but don't forget Duda: Corner OF didn't once sound so bad, either. If the Mets don't like what Tejada gives them they should just suck it up and sign Drew. 

 

I can't even think how nightmarish Flores/Murphy would be as an up-the-middle tandem. Yuck. 

Edited by nmigliore

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Maybe they should just sign Drew.  But if they're willing to give a guy in Flores who clearly has NO business a chance to "earn" the starting SS position, then don't even bother wasting time with Tejada...just get him out of here then.  I'm not a big Tejada guy either, but like I keep saying, Sandy and Co. had their chance to answer this (and many other questions) already, and instead chose to keep Tejada around, and even tried to sell us on him.  Is it really going to hurt to give him a couple of months or more of 2014 to see if last year's events have made him a better person, and possibly a better player? 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Exactly. They trash-mouthed Tejada in the fall, did nothing to address the situation all winter, and now they are back to throwing shots at him in the spring, before games even begin, and are willing to try a guy who some believe is a 1B. It's terrible. If you hate him that much just sign Drew or make a trade. This whole back-and-forth with Tejada isn't doing any good for the team or the player. 

Edited by nmigliore

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Possible Opening Day Lineup:

 

EY

Murph

Wright

Grandy

Davis (or Doofus)

Young

d'Arnaud

Tejada (or Flores)

Pitcher

 

That's scary for all of the wrong reasons.  Yikes.

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So that's their excuse for not spending money, they're delusional enough to think they have a good team lol

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So that's their excuse for not spending money, they're delusional enough to think they have a good team lol

 

I know this wasn't really supposed to be a public proclamation, but hearing stuff like that is just maddening.  How can Sandy and Fred say what they did and possibly be serious?  If they really want to field a potential 90-win team, both parties should have worked a LOT harder than they did to make it happen.  I think just about every Met fan would be thrilled with 80 wins this season, especially if the young arms all look like they're primed for solid 2015 campaigns either here or somewhere else (gotta think one or more of them may get moved for a Giancarlo Stanton-type).  But 90 is just flat-out delusional and silly, and such a declaration gives Met fans yet another reason to hate Sandy and the Wilpons.

 

Think about it...name one move that Sandy made this offseason that doesn't have the potential to blow up.  Granderson has been roughly a .230 hitter the past two seasons and won't benefit from Yankee Stadium anymore bloating his HR totals.  He also strikes out a ton and doesn't get on base.  Colon is old and never really in shape...he could tank overnight.  Chris Young...whoopdee damn do.  As much as I'm optimistic about flirting with 80 wins, a hell of a lot can go wrong this season, which is why I don't want to hear Passive make optimistic declarations about ANYTHING, especially coming off an offseason that didn't see the Mets land a single exclamation point. 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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out of touch, delusional old coot (wilpon that is, not sandy)

 

I'm not giving you the personnel to win 90, and Harvey is out and Niese in limbo but..."YOU'D BETTER WIN 90 ANYWAY"

 

but shame on Sandy for stoking there flames. 

Edited by '7'

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