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nmigliore

Official 2014 New York Mets Thread

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If anyone wants to see Kevin Plawecki he's catching and batting 9th for USA in the Futures Game. It starts now on MLB Network. Syndergaard is also on the US team.

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deGrom's numbers is in his five starts are terrific:  32.2 IP, 28 H, 6 ER, 10 BB, 38 K, 0 HR, 1.65 ERA.  He's been a lot of fun to watch, and good for him for bouncing back after a couple of rough ones.  

 

11-game road trip that starts on the West Coast to start the second half.  Ouch.

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TC acknowledged deGrom has pitched so well that he can’t come out of rotation, one day after hinting at bullpen. So, Dice-K likely in pen.

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TC acknowledged deGrom has pitched so well that he can’t come out of rotation, one day after hinting at bullpen. So, Dice-K likely in pen.

 

 

Thank god, friggin' logic prevailing for once.  Sorry, Dice should only be getting starts when someone gets hurt, shutdown, or after Colon (hopefully) gets dealt.  No other reason makes sense.

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Things keep getting worse for Ike Davis.  He's starting to get benched against righthanders.  His numbers since 5/26 (we've seen extended samples of futility like this from Ike before):

 

20-for-112 (.179 BA), .316 OB%, .268 SLG, .584 OB+SLG, 4 2B, 2 HR (both solo shots), 12 RBI   

 

In 145 AB over the same span, Duda is a .283 hitter, with a SLG% of .551.  16 2B, 9 HR and 30 RBI.  OB+SLG well over .900, OB% near .400.  Who knows if he will keep this up, but the fact is that even if he slides backwards, it seems doubtful that he can possibly be as bad at the plate as Davis has been.   

 

Davis' major-league future (especially at a starting first baseman) has to be in question at this point...first basemen who disappear at the plate for months at a time aren't exactly in demand.  This season started with considerable promise, and it looked like the trade to Pitt was just what the doctor ordered for him, but it's clearly Duda who is flourishing with his chance.  And I have to give him credit, because I wanted Ike all the way.  There's still a chance this could turn out to be less of a landslide than it is right now, but it's really looking bad for Ike...for the third time in three seasons, he's been one of the worst offensive players in the NL for far too long a time.         

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Syndergaard earned the save in the Futures game...gave up a hit in one inning, but also struck out one and by all accounts looked good.  From the quotes I read and heard, sounds like he's getting pretty anxious to come up...at any rate, he's going to be thrilled once he gets out of the PCL.

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I can remember after Ike's big HR season there was a divide in the Mets brass...a good chunk of the org wanted to trade him at the height of his value while others thought we found out 1b of the future. Well we all know who has since won this argument.

Ike will have a long MLB career. He is a steady glove, he does draw walks, and he does have power that's sort of in hibernation right now. I predict there will be at least one more...maybe two more clubs who think they can fix him before he just turns into a platoon journeyman. It is a bit sad, but he's just got too many damn holes in his swing.

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'7', the funny thing is he doesn't strike out like he used to, and he's gotten much better at drawing walks.  His BB-to-K ratio has been very good since his recall from Vegas (82 BB, 84 K).  Unfortunately his newfound ability to walk more and strike out less hasn't done anything for his overall game.  His power is just about gone...his numbers since leaving Vegas:  366 AB, 22 2 B, 9 HR.  Check out his SLG%s by month since he came back:

 

July 2013:  .355 (.382 OB%)

Aug 2013:  .522 (.468 OB%, .290 BA...this was the month that had me intrigued)

Apr 2014:  .367 (.328 OB%)

May 2014:  .453 (.408 OB%)

Jun 2014:  .267 (.330 OB%)

Jul 2014 (to date):  .185 (.303 OB%) 

 

He makes contact, but that contact is constantly leading to outs.  His BABIP the last three season is .246, .268, and .275.  Without looking it up, I'm guessing he's hitting a lot of weak grounders that infielders are scooping up, and he's not able to beat anything out due to being about as slow as they come. 

 

He's slugging .345 for this season, after slugging .367 for last season.  I agree, 2012 alone is going to buy him some more chances (32 HR and 90 RBI look nice at a quick glance), but I'm not sure how many.  Pittsburgh is probably not going to tender him a contract at this rate. 

 

I don't know about a long career though.  First basemen need to hit to stay in the league, and hit with some oomph.  I think Ike should probably become a second or seventh place hitter at this point...if he can ever become a consistent .260ish hitter can get on base at a .360-.370 clip, he could be a useful #2 hitter. 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Not exactly breaking news here, but hopefully something happens.  Just hope Colon has a few good ones in him before the deadline:

 

http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/11213746/new-york-mets-make-bartolo-colon-available-trade-talks

 

Like I've said, I can't really ask for that much in return as far as players go, especially with $11 million due to him next season, but getting his remaining money off the books is huge. 

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Allan Dykstra won the AAA HR Derby last night. Good for him.

 

Dilson Herrera keeps hitting. He was 1-for-3 with a homer and a walk Sunday, went 1-for-4 with a walk last night, and is hitting .326/.398/.495 in 95 AB in AA. For me the most encouraging part of Herrera's numbers has been his walk rate, which sits at 11.1% in AA (versus 5.8% in high-A and 8% in low-A last season). And he's doing that as the youngest hitter in the league. 

 

Nimmo's adjustment to AA has gone slower but he's still drawing a ton of walks, his strikeout rate hasn't moved much, and he's already hit 4 homers in 89 AB (versus 4 in 227 AB in high-A). Some positive regression in BABIP will give his slash line a good boost. 

Edited by nmigliore

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Herrera's success (I've been posting on his progress for a while now) does make one wonder what the Mets do with Murph.  Herrera is on a fast track right now...of course, that can change overnight, but at the rate he's going, he might see playing time with the big boys as early as late 2015, as a 21-year-old, and might have a legit shot to make the 2016 club.  We know how it works here...money figures into a LOT of decisions, and Murph is due to get a hefty raise.  Herrera will be cost-effective (if he is able to become a good major-leaguer of course...it's still too early to know) and under control for a nice long time.  And Murph at $10-12 mil is a little scary, even if it's fair market value. 

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For what it's worth, and I think I posted this last week, ESPN's Keith Law thinks Herrera will be a starting 2B and "a good one." Josh Norris of Baseball America ranked him as the 57th best prospect in baseball on his personal list.

 

If the Mets do decide to trade Murphy, Flores is also a good bridge to Herrera. I know he hasn't hit at all in the Majors, but he's slashing .326/.368/.588 in AAA this season and .322/.360/.548 overall in AAA. Yeah I know, Vegas/PCL factor, but I feel like there's gotta be something there.

 

The more I think about it, and I like Murph, the more I think I'd take my chances on one of Flores/Herrera panning out rather than paying Murphy 8 figures into his decline phase. Murphy's trade value probably won't ever be as high as it is now, and there are plenty of contenders out there who could use a 2B (Jays, Orioles, A's, Reds without Phillips, etc.)

Edited by nmigliore

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There is much to like about Murph, no doubt, but yeah, sometimes you have to make the move when the timing's right...Murph is going to make more money than he probably should, there's other second basemen in the system (though it's REALLY hard for me to get excited about Flores as a stopgap...Vegas really makes these guys so damned hard to read), and you are right, can't see his value ever being higher than it is right now.   

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I struggle with the idea of trading Murphy. Ultimately it comes down to the return we would get. If it's a high quality, close to mlb prospect then sure I guess I can be on board, but if your just dumping him to not pay him/make room for Herrera, I'd be disappointed. The guy is our best hitter.

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I struggle with the idea of trading Murphy. Ultimately it comes down to the return we would get. If it's a high quality, close to mlb prospect then sure I guess I can be on board, but if your just dumping him to not pay him/make room for Herrera, I'd be disappointed. The guy is our best hitter.

 

You absolutely do not give him away, I agree with that, but Murph's flaws are well-documented.  Wright is still the Mets' best hitter when he's on, even though he's constantly being asked to do more than he's capable of, and treated by the Mets like he's better than he is.  But the problem with Murph remains the same:  he really needs to be a .320ish hitter to make up for his warts.  He doesn't walk enough.  He doesn't hit with power, though he does hit doubles.  He's an average fielder, a bad/slowish baserunner, and does some head-scratching things.  He does give you his all and has made the most out of his somewhat limited abilities...he deserves kudos for that. 

 

The main issue is he's about to start getting paid, almost definitely 8-figures, and the Mets are the kind of team that really has to be careful where they tie up their money.  Murph likely isn't going to get any better than he is right now, and if his hitting ever starts regressing, the OB% is going to drop into the .310-.320 range.  The idea of a declining Murphy making $12+ million per season with 2-3 years left on a long-term deal is scary.  Like I said, I'm not saying to dump him, but the Mets should really sell high here. 

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CR, Murphy is actually a sneaky-good baserunner. He's not a great basestealer by any means (although he was last season) but he's pretty good at taking the extra-base per the metrics. Since 2013, he's 9th among qualified hitters in Baserunning Runs (BsR), which calculates runs above average via baserunning -- such as advancing 1st to 3rd on a base hit, etc. -- and stealing bases. He doesn't look the part, I know, and he tends to have his "Murph' Moments" on the bases, but he's actually not bad out there. Tom Goodwin probably deserves some credit here too, though. 

 

I'm not scared of paying Murphy that kind of money. That's basically league average player money these days and I think Murphy, while not as good as he's been this season, is at least an average player going forward. Further, if the Mets are going to be tanked by a player making $12-13M per, then we're in even worse financial shape than we already think. To me the attraction of moving Murphy is more involved with selling high in hopes of suckering a desperate contender in need of a 2B (hello, Baltimore and Oakland) and liking the in-house alternatives a little more than most (Flores, Reynolds, Herrera in the not-too-distant future, hopefully) -- I think you can get like 70% of Murphy's production for like ~5% of the cost from one of those guys, for instance. But if news broke that the Mets extended Murphy for that price, I wouldn't at all be disappointed. If I had to pick a path I'd probably trade him, but I can really go either way. 

Edited by nmigliore

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The Mets' finances (I still think they're iffy at best, and sadly I do think $12-13 millon of not getting what they need out of a guy like Murph can help de-rail them) concern me enough that I think they have to be careful, especially with a guy like Sandy around, who's quite capable of making moves that backfire.

 

I think you have a potentially perfect storm brewing to trade him...a couple of contending teams could use him, and like you're saying, there's options within the system, though I think Flores will ultimately be a AAAA player who never does much in the majors, so I don't really factor him into the future.  In a lot of other scenarios, I probably lean towards keeping him as long as the money doesn't get completely silly, especially if I knew for sure that the Mets weren't going to continue to spend $90 million or less on the on-field product for the foreseeable future. 

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The Mets' finances (I still think they're iffy at best, and sadly I do think $12-13 millon of not getting what they need out of a guy like Murph can help de-rail them) concern me enough that I think they have to be careful, especially with a guy like Sandy around, who's quite capable of making moves that backfire.

 

I think you have a potentially perfect storm brewing to trade him...a couple of contending teams could use him, and like you're saying, there's options within the system, though I think Flores will ultimately be a AAAA player who never does much in the majors, so I don't really factor him into the future.  In a lot of other scenarios, I probably lean towards keeping him as long as the money doesn't get completely silly, especially if I knew for sure that the Mets weren't going to continue to spend $90 million or less on the on-field product for the foreseeable future. 

 

You may very well be right on Flores, but it's easy to forget he's still just 22 despite being in the system for what seems like a century. Daniel Murphy, in his age-22 season, was hitting .285/.338/.430 in high-A St. Lucie, for some perspective. But yeah, I agree with the perfect storm comment, and that's kind of what I was alluding to above in that it's a good time to sell high with a surprising amount of contenders or quasi-contenders in need of 2B help and Murphy enjoying a career-year. 

 

If they don't move Murphy by the deadline, though, they may as well begin working out an extension. If they can't get what they're looking for now, they probably won't ever.

Edited by nmigliore

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Thing about Murphy is that when he starts aging he's going to start looking brutal at 2nd. He still has moments of looking brutal there...but if he so much as loses a step it's going to look horrific and he's going to morph into an AL exclusive ballplayer, one that DH's often and occasionally steps in at 2nd or 3rd

 

I would trade him, his value will never be higher. We can get a better return for him than for Colon. It's not outlandish to suggest that we might snag a very good prospect AND another middle of the road prospect for him. I'm talking about the return for Murph has to be a top 3 guy in somebody's system. Has to be.

 

One thing I'm worried about though is the Mets standings here. They're 7 out now despite this 8-2 run. That's still seller mode, but they've drifted close to that no mans land. What if we're 4-5 out of the division and wild card when the deadline gets here. Does Jeff and Fred shut things down and declare we're in it?

 

I'm not saying that's the right thing to do, it's just that it might happen

Edited by '7'

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I don't mind being "buyers", as long as it's in the sense that we're acquiring talent for 2015 and beyond. I also don't think they'll move Murphy anyway, so I don't know if being 4-5 back versus 8-10 back will end up making a significant difference, honestly. Colon is probably the one guy I could see getting dealt either way.

 

He won't get traded but I'd be curious to see what teams think of Dillon Gee. His results over the past calendar year have been nothing short of spectacular (2.55 ERA) but the fielder-independent numbers are nowhere close to that (3.95 FIP, 4.25 xFIP) as his strikeout rate keeps plummeting. Those peripherals are also not very good for a pitcher who pitches in the NL and in a pitcher's park. It's probably not fair to chalk up that entire differential to luck, as Gee has suppressed BABIP some for his career (.279), but that kind of gap is still really staggering. No other starting pitcher with at least 150 innings over the past calendar year has a bigger differential between their ERA and FIP than Gee, and that kind of differential is basically unsustainable over a longer period of time. Teams would probably be turned off by the injury history, and it's not like those fielder-independent numbers are only accessible to us, but I'd be curious to see what teams would offer up for him.

Edited by nmigliore

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I'm not even convinced we'll trade Colon let alone Murphy or Gee.  This illusory run is going to get the FO thinking maybe they can lure the fans back with 'meaningful August baseball'.  Plus Sandy only does trades when he thinks he can hit a home run.  I can easily picture him saying something like 'we aren't getting a team's top thirty prospect back' a la Marlon Byrd and why we didn't trade him :P


If we do deal Colon it'll be in the offseason so better hope he stays healthy till then.

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Thing about Murphy is that when he starts aging he's going to start looking brutal at 2nd. He still has moments of looking brutal there...but if he so much as loses a step it's going to look horrific and he's going to morph into an AL exclusive ballplayer, one that DH's often and occasionally steps in at 2nd or 3rd

 

I would trade him, his value will never be higher. We can get a better return for him than for Colon. It's not outlandish to suggest that we might snag a very good prospect AND another middle of the road prospect for him. I'm talking about the return for Murph has to be a top 3 guy in somebody's system. Has to be.

 

One thing I'm worried about though is the Mets standings here. They're 7 out now despite this 8-2 run. That's still seller mode, but they've drifted close to that no mans land. What if we're 4-5 out of the division and wild card when the deadline gets here. Does Jeff and Fred shut things down and declare we're in it?

 

I'm not saying that's the right thing to do, it's just that it might happen

 

The Mets have a big road trip coming up to start the second half (10 games against San Diego, Seattle, and Milwaukee), and I'm thinking they will sabotage any hope of making a serious run during that trip.  Interestingly enough, despite the fact that two of their opponents having winning records, none of those teams have played well at home.  But I can see the Mets going 3-7 or 4-6, when they really need to go 7-3 or better.   

 

Anyway, there's 13 games before the deadline.  If the Mets go 10-3, they'll have gone 18-5 in the 23 games leading up to the deadline, and will also be 55-53 at that point in a weak NL East.  Though there's definitely a part of me that would love to say "Go for it", I just can't, unless like nmig says, they're adding a body or two that can help them in 2015 and beyond.  If the Mets keep Murph AND sign him to a 4+ year extension, I think they'll wind up regretting it...it'd be different if the Mets were able to carry over $100 million in player salaries, but they can't.

 

Sandy can't expect a massive return for Colon.  He should be thinking about getting his salary off the Mets' books, end of story.  It was kind of a pointless signing anyway...I get that Colon was supposed to be a temporary replacement/loose approximation for Harvey, and with arms seemingly become more fragile by the day, you can't ever have too many of them, but pitching depth was something the Mets had, and Colon is the kind of move you make when you're in "All in, let's go for it, we're one starting pitcher short of being able to contend."  Two years for him was absurd, especially when you consider all of the bodies the Mets have in the mix for 2015:

 

Gee

Niese

Wheeler

Harvey

deGrom

Syndergaard    

Montero

 

Lefty Steven Matz is currently in AA, 23-year-old righthander Matthew Bowman was recently promoted to AAA, and 24-year-old Logan Verrett has also had some good starts in Vegas (he gives up a ton of hits, but doesn't walk guys and could be one of those pitchers whose game isn't conducive to the PCL), so there's depth.  The Mets can keep Dice K around as insurance to fill in when guys get hurt.  Torres and Eveland could do the same. 

 

I would rather see the Mets deal him at the deadline, because I think it's risky as hell to hope that he has a strong second half AND stays healthy.  If he struggles down the stretch or gets hurt, he has damned near no value in the offseason, and the Mets will have to eat a lot of his remaining money to get someone to take him.  Best thing to hope for is that he pitches well (he'll make three starts before the deadline) and that someone bites and takes on most of his money.  I could be wrong, but I think his age and weight will catch up to him very suddenly, and I'd rather that not happen while he's a Met. 

 

nmig, re: Gee's K%, 2012 was the real outlier (21.0%).  In 2011 it was 16.2%, in 2013 it was 16.9%, and this year it's 15.6%.  I think Gee's a pretty good pitcher, certainly a solid MLB performer, but I'd definitely move him in the right deal...one of these days, one of these Met arms is going to have to show that he can actually throw 200 IP in a season...of course, when they're never allowed to do it in the minors (often pitching less than 150 innings in a season, if that many), or are constantly getting limited to five or six innings per minor league start, should it come as any great surprise that they can't handle it when they're asked to suddenly go 7+ per start and 200+ per season at the major-league level?  Neither Gee nor Niese has shown the ability to get through seasons consistently without missing some starts.   

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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4 Mets make Keith Law's midseason top 50:

 

16. Noah Syndergaard
32. Michael Conforto
34. Brandon Nimmo
49. Dominic Smith

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Funny how quickly we forget some of the crap that was on this roster early in the year.  I was reading some mid-season reports on the Mets, and saw names like Jose Valverde, John Lannan, Kyle Farnsworth...at least those guys didn't get endless chances to suck.  I remember when Farnsworth blasted the Mets for cutting him and wanted to find a new team that the Mets would play later in the season, so he could pitch against them.  Well, Farnsy sucked with the Astros even more than he did with the Mets and is now looking for work again.  Ouch. 

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Syndergaard getting hit hard tonight. 6 hits and 5 earned runs in just 2 innings so far. Argh.

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