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nmigliore

Official 2014 New York Mets Thread

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That the Mets have gotten ANYTHING out of Eveland at all is kind of miraculous.  Whenever he's pitched in the majors (he's started as well as relieved...made 29 starts for Oakland in 2008 with decent results), he's usually been pretty awful. 

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Lucas Duda bitches!

:P

Edited by nmigliore

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No for real...

LUCAS DUDA BITCHES!!

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No for real...

LUCAS DUDA BITCHES!!

 

Fattening up the numbers in garbage time...but he's been doing it in big spots lately, and it's not like no other ballplayers do the same thing. 

 

I think we would've expected about 19 HR and 60 RBI from Lucas at roughly season's end at best.  Damn. 

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Quirky stat on Twitter via @tpgMets: The Nats, Dodgers, and A's are the only teams with more runs scored AND fewer runs allowed than the Mets.

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Hey look who's resurfaced in Miami...Jordany Valdespin

 

Not tearing the cover off the ball or anything, but has a couple of HR's the last few days

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Trad numbers for Zack in his last 6:

 

38.2 IP (at least 6 IP in each start), 33 H, 8 R, 7 ER, 4 HR, 14 BB, 34 K, 1.63 ERA, 1.22 WHIP 

 

The one number that continues not to fit is the ERA...unless Zack starts allowing less baserunners and home runs, I don't see how this low-ERA burst will continue.  I don't have his FIP and xFIP for this 6-start stretch, but I'm guessing both would be significantly higher than his ERA. 

 

Is he pitching better and becoming more consistent, despite the always-high pitch counts?  Yes.  And it's great to see that, dating back to May 18 (14 starts), he's only given up 27 BB (2.89 per 9 IP) in 84 IP (and struck out 84)...he's come a long way in that regard, when one considers that, in his first 143.2 IP, he walked 70 hitters (4.39 per 9).  But there's going to be some 4+ ER games coming...Zack's enjoying some luck right now for sure. 

 

 

And I'll be very surprised if Sandy does anything today.  What scares me is there's rumors going around that Murph is absolutely off the table, and that the Mets want to sign him long-term.  I know AA is a long way from the majors, but Herrera has me intrigued.  He's practically a baby to boot...like nmig says, he's the youngest player in AA and he's raking down there.  Obviously if Murph re-signs, Herrera will probably be moved as part of a package for something else, but Murph to me has too many limitations.  I'd rather see the Mets not keep him to the tune of $12 million per year for four or five years...especially since they don't have the flexibility to overcome a signing like that if it doesn't work out. 

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Well you can pick out any 6-start stretch of a pitcher and it's pretty unlikely his ERA will exactly match his peripherals, and I don't think anyone is going to mistake Wheeler for a sub-2 or even sub-3 ERA pitcher all of a sudden.

 

Overall on the season, Wheeler's results haven't really drifted much from his peripherals (if anything, he's been slightly unlikely), unlike last season when he was riding a nice streak of luck:

 

2013: 19.5 K%, 10.7 BB%, 43.2 GB%, 3.42 ERA, 4.17 FIP, 4.21 xFIP

2014: 23 K%, 9.4 BB%, 52.4 GB%, 3.60 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 3.48 xFIP

 

I was a little down on Wheeler after last season because he had average strikeout and groundball rates to go with a below average walk rate, but this season, he's shown improvement in all 3 core pitcher categories: the strikeouts are up quite a bit, the walks are down slightly, the groundballs are way up and as a result his homeruns are down. These are all really good things that just looking at ERA does not always capture (like in this case, where Wheeler's ERA is actually a bit higher than 2013 even though he's a much better pitcher right now).

Edited by nmigliore

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I get that, re: 6-start stretches...I was pointing out that anyone who thinks Wheeler is now dominating (as the ERA might suggest) and will continue to dominate isn't really looking at the big picture.  His numbers over that time suggest someone whose ERA should be somewhere in the 2.50 - 3.00 range in his last over those 6 starts...like I said, it's not like he's suddenly become especially adept at keeping runners off base.  Like you, I've pointed out the improvements (he has turned a big corner in getting his walks down), but yeah, he's probably not a sub-3.00 ERA guy...not yet, anyway.   

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Yeah and I'm fine with that. I wanted to see improvement somewhere this season, and he's done that with his strikeouts and groundballs/homeruns, which have pushed his FIP/xFIP from 4+ to mid-3's. If he ever learns to throw strikes, he could really take off as a frontline starter.

Edited by nmigliore

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Lester going to the A's, wow that's a shocker. Could open the Colon market for teams that were targeting Lester/Price.

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Lester going to the A's, wow that's a shocker. Could open the Colon market for teams that were targeting Lester/Price.

 

Wow, Beane is REALLY going for it this season.  Yeah, I've felt for a while now that Colon could be someone's Plan B or C.  Still think he's not getting moved until August sometime, if at all...I can see Sandy overplaying his hand.

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 Lester and Gomes For CESPEDES? :o talk about a blockbuster

 

Gomes is sort of a poor mans Cespedes. Though he is a better OBP guy.

Edited by '7'

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I actually wonder if Boston considers flipping Cespedes for a starter this winter. If they do in fact move Lackey as well, they're really going to need some starters next season, even if they resign Lester. Cespedes is a gamble in that he's is a free agent after 2015 but he'd sure look pretty good in LF for us.... 

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I actually wonder if Boston considers flipping Cespedes for a starter this winter. If they do in fact move Lackey as well, they're really going to need some starters next season, even if they resign Lester. Cespedes is a gamble in that he's is a free agent after 2015 but he'd sure look pretty good in LF for us.... 

 

yea. I thought of that too. Would be nice but I just don't see them shelling out the $ for him. 2016 will probably be Nimmo time in left (unless he's gone in some package before)

Curious where Marlon Byrd ends up. I see the Yankees are sniffing around on him.

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Cardinals acquired John Lackey for Joe Kelly and Allen Craig, wow. 

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Seeing what Billy Beane is doing...I can't help but wonder if Sandy, if his team is ever in the same position as the A's are now, will have the balls to make those kinds of "We're going for it and we're going for it NOW" moves (and I won't pretend that such moves guarantee ultimate success...as we know, they often don't).  You can argue the merits of these all-in deals, but I find it very hard to believe Sandy will have either the creativity or guts to take the kind of shot Beane is.  I can almost hear the excuses already... 

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Sandy is just waking up to find out that the deadline has passed...

 

all kidding aside though, the good news is a lot of bigger-name starting pitchers moved today.  If Colon can just have 2-3 strong weeks in August, he's probably the best name available. 

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Not surprised but I'm not unhappy.

 

I still think this was *the* best time to trade him, but if they want to really compete in 2015, they need Murphy.

 

Colon is definitely an August trade candidate or even in the winter for teams who miss on free agent starters. And if they don't move him at all, I don't think I'll be too upset either, especially if they fill other holes; no reason to eat money and get trash in return for a league average starter who currently has the 9th best K/BB among starters right now. 

Edited by nmigliore

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Well, you can say that Colon has been able to do two things in his 40s than Niese and Gee can't in their 20s:  provide innings and stay healthy, lol.

 

All the bigger-name starting pitchers moving today couldn't have been better for the Mets, re: Colon.  Though I guess Cliff Lee might be available (but seems more likely to be blocked).

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Sandy is just waking up to find out that the deadline has passed...

 

all kidding aside though, the good news is a lot of bigger-name starting pitchers moved today.  If Colon can just have 2-3 strong weeks in August, he's probably the best name available. 

 

A lot of teams that actually needed starting pitching went and got it though, unless you count the Orioles who Colon makes zero sense for (a flyball pitcher in that park is asking for disaster).

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A lot of teams that actually needed starting pitching went and got it though, unless you count the Orioles who Colon makes zero sense for (a flyball pitcher in that park is asking for disaster).

 

I'm not ruling out someone getting hurt...all it takes is one important arm to go down. 

 

BTW he's 12-8 lifetime in Camden Yards with a 3.25 ERA, for whatever that's worth.  At least there's no smoking gun there that screams he can't succeed there.

 

EDIT:  Above are his lifetime numbers against the Os.  In Camden Yards he's 5-7 with a 3.33 ERA in 15 starts.  He's only allowed 5 HR in 97.1 IP there.  Other than the W-L, his other traditional numbers are pretty good there.

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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We also don't know if the Mets are planning on making a huge splash this winter with their young arms, in which case keeping Colon is even more important than the "you can never have enough pitching" spiel. 

Edited by nmigliore

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