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nmigliore

Official 2014 New York Mets Thread

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Ironically I thought the whole 90 win proclamation made it more likely (not less) that they'd be filling out the rotation with a Dice K/Lannan than one of the young guys.  If they thought they were going to win 75 games, then what's the point of not going with the young guys?  Aside from this whole Super 2 nonsense with service time.


Nice.  Maybe Matz sniffs AAA by season's end.  Let's face it, Mets aren't going to have all of these young arms pitching as Mets.  Some of them are going to be dealt for other needs.  Even lazy GMs like Sandy should be able to turn a good young arm or two into something helpful. 

 

A couple of them might also have to be turned into the bullpen pitchers Sandy can't seem to acquire from the outside.  Although in the case of Mejia they've kind of Jobaed him back and forth from starter to reliever, and they really need to just let him be one or the other.

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Ironically I thought the whole 90 win proclamation made it more likely (not less) that they'd be filling out the rotation with a Dice K/Lannan than one of the young guys.  If they thought they were going to win 75 games, then what's the point of not going with the young guys?  Aside from this whole Super 2 nonsense with service time.

 

I know Dice K had that four-game burst to end last season, but neither of those guys are any good.  Think any team that REALLY has their sights on 90 wins has chum like Dice and Lannan filling out their rotations?  They're fine for AAA depth, but that's it. 

 

Hopefully, it doesn't come to that...Colon, Niese, Gee and Wheeler should all have rotation spots locked up (if healthy of course), and Mejia should really have the inside track on the 5th spot by the time spring ends.   

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I'm kinda shocked this hasn't got more run here:

@@MarcCarig

[Matsuzaka] and Lannan would probably be the two leading guys right now.” - Terry Collins on the 5th starter race.

Thankfully it's March 3rd. But I'd be lying if I said I was confident that Mejia will end up as the 5th starter. Edited by nmigliore

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A couple of them might also have to be turned into the bullpen pitchers Sandy can't seem to acquire from the outside.  Although in the case of Mejia they've kind of Jobaed him back and forth from starter to reliever, and they really need to just let him be one or the other.

 

Funny, I was thinking the same thing.  A lot of relievers are starters in the minors...hell, Mariano Rivera came up as a starter.  I guess I'd like to see these guys at least get a legit crack at starting before seeing them converted into relievers.  Then again, Sandy doesn't seem to have a clue when it comes to finding bullpen help outside the organization.   

Anyhoo...know it's been brought up about some of us getting to a game at the same time...but that seems like it's just going to be really difficult to pull off.  Anybody know of a good sports bar in NJ that'd be a pretty decent place for us to meet?  I don't mind driving. 

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Mets 2-5 in spring training so far.  Good news is the pitchers we were hoping would look good in the early going are.  deGrom:  4 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 6 K 

 

Minuscule samples of course, but the young arms do have a way of enthusing. 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Devils fan Seth Everett is going to be the pre-/post-game host for the Mets on WOR. 

 

Seth Everett currently hosts a FOX Sports Radio Saturday morning show, in addition to serving as the FOX Sports Radio Baseball Insider, appearing on several programs throughout the week. Heard nationally on FOX Sports Radio stations during local programs, Everett gives cities around the country the latest news in baseball. Everett joined FOX Sports Radio in 2001, and previously covered the NFL, NHL and NBA while simultaneously working with Major League Baseball. He met his wife in the press box of Giants Stadium during a Jets game while working for FOX Sports Radio. While he tries to not be biased when it comes to sports topics, he can’t help but publicly support his alma mater, Syracuse, & his hometown New Jersey Devils. Everett currently lives in New Jersey with his wife and two daughters. 

 

 

-Rubin

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Honestly I'm fine with them taking their time with the young guys. I know for the past few years this was the season we pointed to where we turn things around but I'm personally willing to endure one more season of mediocrity if it means a better long term outlook moving forward.

If they want to start with lannan or dice-k as the fifth and wait to bring up Noah in the summer that's fine by me. This season should primarily be about answering questions and setting the table for next season- IMO the 3 things I'm really looking for this season are-

1) darnoud breaking out (say 15 hr and 75 ribs)

2) final determination of whether or not Ike, duda and tejada are pieces to keep or just trade for peanuts (don't really want Drew, if it was next offseason I'd be interested but signing him now is essentially wasting money this year since we're not really a playoff team anyway) if none of these guys improve then cut bait and make the necessary moves for next year.

3) identify young arms for the bullpen long term other than Parnell and black (maybe convert one of the lesser prospects)

March and April are always great because if there is ever a time to be optimistic it's now, but realistically these are my expectations for the season.

Also I will really miss listening on the fan- being out of market the online radio feed is my lifeblood, I just hope I don't have to endure many Limbaugh commercials on wor.

Edited by dmann422

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I have no problem with Montero and Syndergaard going to AAA for a little while. Syndergaard in particular needs more minor league seasoning, as he's yet to pitch above AA and lefties quietly handled him very well last season with an .815 OPS. Montero is far more polished and probably MLB ready right now but understandably will go down for service time/arbitration reasons -- delaying free agency and possibly avoiding Super Two status (4 arbitration payouts) -- I get it, the majority of baseball does it with their young players.

 

Mejia, however, is the big loser in this battle, probably ending up in the bullpen. Maybe that's his future role anyway with his durability issues, but he at least deserves a chance to start when the alternatives are two stiffs, Dice-K or Lannan. Mejia simultaneously gives the team the best chance to win and a look at a potentially good future rotation cog. There is really no downside and the upside is quite big; I stand by saying Mejia has the best stuff of anyone projected to make this rotation, including Wheeler. Unless Mejia gets hurt between now and Opening Day, there is no fair defense of this front office choosing one of those two veterans over Mejia; it would just be a horrible decision. 

 

I was listening to one of the games this week on WOR and my immediate takeaway was that I forgot how awful AM compares to FM. Hopefully WOR can come up with an FM channel in the near future. At least Howie/Josh are still with the broadcast but not being on WFAN is probably going to suck. 

Edited by nmigliore

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Honestly I'm fine with them taking their time with the young guys. I know for the past few years this was the season we pointed to where we turn things around but I'm personally willing to endure one more season of mediocrity if it means a better long term outlook moving forward.

If they want to start with lannan or dice-k as the fifth and wait to bring up Noah in the summer that's fine by me. This season should primarily be about answering questions and setting the table for next season- IMO the 3 things I'm really looking for this season are-

1) darnoud breaking out (say 15 hr and 75 ribs)

2) final determination of whether or not Ike, duda and tejada are pieces to keep or just trade for peanuts (don't really want Drew, if it was next offseason I'd be interested but signing him now is essentially wasting money this year since we're not really a playoff team anyway) if none of these guys improve then cut bait and make the necessary moves for next year.

3) identify young arms for the bullpen long term other than Parnell and black (maybe convert one of the lesser prospects)

March and April are always great because if there is ever a time to be optimistic it's now, but realistically these are my expectations for the season.

Also I will really miss listening on the fan- being out of market the online radio feed is my lifeblood, I just hope I don't have to endure many Limbaugh commercials on wor.

 

Welcome to the Mets' board dmann.  We're all pretty passionate on here, even though the Wilpons always seem to do their best to strip that passion out of us. 

 

In bolded:  I think most of us, though a bit disappointed that the offseason was very meh, are OK with going through one more of year of relative irrelevance.  Sandy and the Mets should've kept their mouths shut about 90 wins...it makes them look both foolish and arrogant.  We all know it doesn't have a prayer of happening, and teams that are really serious about such proclamations don't have zilches like Dice-K and Lannan in the picture over guys who are clearly have upside.  And nmig is 100% correct about Mejia...there is NO reason why Dice or Lannan should get the 5th slot over him...they're dead ends who don't figure into the future here.     

 

re:  d'Arnaud breaking out, I think you have to set your sights lower.  Let's see him get through a season healthy, for starters, because that's been a serious issue for him (it delayed his major-league debut significantly last season).  I don't really have any numbers for d'Arnaud in mind, other than playing in 130 or so, and getting comfortable.  Hopefully, by 2015, he's comfortable and will know the league better. 

 

re:  Ike, Doofus, and Tejada, it should be now or never for all three of them.  nmig has rightly pointed out that the career offensive numbers for Ike and Doof aren't really much different, but I can't stand Duda...I just think he's gotten too many chances and, outside of seemingly accidental home runs and a decent ability to get on base, hasn't shown anything.  I lean towards Davis because he can field a lot better than Duda and his new approach at the plate last season after his recall intrigues me.  But I don't kid myself...both of them are probably going to get chances, and both probably aren't going to do enough with them to warrant yet more chances in 2015.  Tejada...who the hell knows, really. 

 

The real big question is what happens in the offseason in 2015.  I can understand why the Mets passed on guys like Choo and Ellsbury, and I wasn't angry that they didn't go for either player...but at the same time, it seems like Sandy and Co. just love to come up with reasons why they can't spend money or do anything that takes some cojones, and I worry about whether or not that will change after this season ends.  The Mets will have a lot of young pitching ready to bust out, but they will still need a lot of position players.  Curtis Granderson and Chris Young are both question marks, not exclamation points.  Mets probably would've been better off re-signing Byrd instead of paying Grandy.  Grandy could very well become the next Jason Bay...if that happens, fans will forget about Curtis being a swell clubhouse guy in a hurry. 

 

Anyway, the payroll is currently a very cheap $82 million.  This team HAS to spend some real money in the offseason (and yes, they will probably have to overpay to get some key pieces), and Sandy can't be his meek passive defeated self and start up with the laundry list of excuses as to why he couldn't do this and why he couldn't do that and how that guy was too rich for his blood.  No one is going to want to hear that sh!t anymore...Sandy's plan is already a year behind schedule.   

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Welcome to the Mets' board dmann.  We're all pretty passionate on here, even though the Wilpons always seem to do their best to strip that passion out of us. 

 

In bolded:  I think most of us, though a bit disappointed that the offseason was very meh, are OK with going through one more of year of relative irrelevance.  Sandy and the Mets should've kept their mouths shut about 90 wins...it makes them look both foolish and arrogant.  We all know it doesn't have a prayer of happening, and teams that are really serious about such proclamations don't have zilches like Dice-K and Lannan in the picture over guys who are clearly have upside.  And nmig is 100% correct about Mejia...there is NO reason why Dice or Lannan should get the 5th slot over him...they're dead ends who don't figure into the future here.     

 

re:  d'Arnaud breaking out, I think you have to set your sights lower.  Let's see him get through a season healthy, for starters, because that's been a serious issue for him (it delayed his major-league debut significantly last season).  I don't really have any numbers for d'Arnaud in mind, other than playing in 130 or so, and getting comfortable.  Hopefully, by 2015, he's comfortable and will know the league better. 

 

re:  Ike, Doofus, and Tejada, it should be now or never for all three of them.  nmig has rightly pointed out that the career offensive numbers for Ike and Doof aren't really much different, but I can't stand Duda...I just think he's gotten too many chances and, outside of seemingly accidental home runs and a decent ability to get on base, hasn't shown anything.  I lean towards Davis because he can field a lot better that Duda and his new approach at the plate last season after his recall intrigues me.  But I don't kid myself...both of them are probably going to get chances, and both probably aren't going to do enough with them to warrant yet more chances in 2015.  Tejada...who the hell knows, really. 

 

The real big question is what happens in the offseason in 2015.  I can understand why the Mets passed on guys like Choo and Ellsbury, and I wasn't angry that they didn't go for either player...but at the same time, it seems like Sandy and Co. just love to come up with reasons why they can't spend money or do anything that takes some cojones, and I worry about whether or not that will change after this season ends.  The Mets will have a lot of young pitching ready to bust out, but they will still need a lot of position players.  Curtis Granderson and Chris Young are both question marks, not exclamation points.  Mets probably would've been better off re-signing Byrd instead of paying Grandy.  Grandy could very well become the next Jason Bay...if that happens, fans will forget about Curtis being a swell clubhouse guy in a hurry. 

 

Anyway, the payroll is currently a very cheap $82 million.  This team HAS to spend some real money in the offseason (and yes, they will probably have to overpay to get some key pieces), and Sandy can't be his meek passive defeated self and start up with the laundry list of excuses as to why he couldn't do this and why he couldn't do that and how that guy was too rich for his blood.  No one is going to want to hear that sh!t anymore...Sandy's plan is already a year behind schedule.   

 

I seem to recall that the free agent class next year is really, really weak, to the point that Michael Cuddyer is the best free agent available this coming offseason.  It's why, if I were a Met fan, I would have wanted the Mets to go for Ellsbury or Choo this year.

 

Otherwise, it seems to me that going forward, free agency is really going to be primarily a means of getting complimentary pieces.  The trend now is for the teams that can afford to do so, to wrap up their best players to long term/big money deals that take them to at least their early thirties.  Mike Trout could very well get a $300 million deal either this offseason or the next.   Otherwise, you'll have to attempt to make trades with teams that are perennial sellers like the Marlins.  But the Marlins never give anyone away, which is why success ultimately comes down to luck in the draft and scouting in Caribbean and South America. 

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I seem to recall that the free agent class next year is really, really weak, to the point that Michael Cuddyer is the best free agent available this coming offseason.  It's why, if I were a Met fan, I would have wanted the Mets to go for Ellsbury or Choo this year.

 

Otherwise, it seems to me that going forward, free agency is really going to be primarily a means of getting complimentary pieces.  The trend now is for the teams that can afford to do so, to wrap up their best players to long term/big money deals that take them to at least their early thirties.  Mike Trout could very well get a $300 million deal either this offseason or the next.   Otherwise, you'll have to attempt to make trades with teams that are perennial sellers like the Marlins.  But the Marlins never give anyone away, which is why success ultimately comes down to luck in the draft and scouting in Caribbean and South America. 

 

I've gotta see what's available, but when I say "spend money" next season, I don't necessarily mean an $150 million contract on just anybody.  Find some solid guys for the bullpen, even if you have to overpay a little to sign them.  If there's a guy the Mets really like in that regard next offseason, don't lose him over $500k or so.   

 

Sandy's going to have to do it through some trading...when I say spend money, I also mean that he may have to take on an existing contract in trade.  But this team is not getting to where it needs to be at $82 million in payroll. 

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There are some good starting pitchers that may or may not make it to the market (Scherzer, Lester, Masterson, Shields), same for some shortstops (Hardy, Ramirez, Lowrie, Cabrera). Overall it's a pretty weak class, though. I rather sign Drew for 2/20ish now than get stuck overpaying for someone like Asdrubal Cabrera, assuming he has a bounce-back season.

 

The Mets may end up needing two outfielders again next winter and that segment of the market is particularly woeful. 

Edited by nmigliore

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I've gotta see what's available, but when I say "spend money" next season, I don't necessarily mean an $150 million contract on just anybody.  Find some solid guys for the bullpen, even if you have to overpay a little to sign them.  If there's a guy the Mets really like in that regard next offseason, don't lose him over $500k or so.   

 

Sandy's going to have to do it through some trading...when I say spend money, I also mean that he may have to take on an existing contract in trade.  But this team is not getting to where it needs to be at $82 million in payroll. 

 

Meh.  If you want to get a big impact guy in a trade, you have to have the pieces to do it.  So if the Mets want a guy like Stanton, either Syndegard or Wheeler will have to be going the other way. 

 

And trying to build a bullpen through free agency is one of the worst ways to spend your money.   They're extremely volatile in terms of their ultimate production.  It's the reason why most relievers are failed starting pitchers. 

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Colorado Rockies 1976, on 10 Mar 2014 - 11:14 AM, said:
 

Mets probably would've been better off re-signing Byrd instead of paying Grandy.  Grandy could very well become the next Jason Bay...if that happens, fans will forget about Curtis being a swell clubhouse guy in a hurry. 

 

 

I think they'll end up regretting the Granderson contract. I don't dislike him, but 4/60 was pretty unnecessary when comparable or slightly worse players were signing for more than $40 million less. 
Edited by nmigliore

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Meh.  If you want to get a big impact guy in a trade, you have to have the pieces to do it.  So if the Mets want a guy like Stanton, either Syndegard or Wheeler will have to be going the other way. 

 

And trying to build a bullpen through free agency is one of the worst ways to spend your money.   They're extremely volatile in terms of their ultimate production.  It's the reason why most relievers are failed starting pitchers. 

 

I'm not saying they should sign anyone to a K-Rod deal, but there's guys out there I'm sure could help.  Yes, there's risks involved, and I was never implying they should build their entire bullpen on free agents alone.  Hopefully Vic Black (cheap young guy from within) can help.  We'll see if any of the starters currently in their system get converted. 

 

 

I think they'll end up regretting the Granderson contract. I don't dislike him, but 4/60 was pretty unnecessary when comparable or slightly worse players were signing for more than $40 million less. 

 

I don't dislike him either, but there is serious potential for a blow-up here, and if that happens at the money they signed him for, he'll be unmovable unless an equally bad contract is coming back.  Sometimes it almost feels like the Mets purposely spend money badly just so they can say later on that spending at all in FA doesn't do any good.   

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I'm not saying they should sign anyone to a K-Rod deal, but there's guys out there I'm sure could help.  Yes, there's risks involved, and I was never implying they should build their entire bullpen on free agents alone.  Hopefully Vic Black (cheap young guy from within) can help.  We'll see if any of the starters currently in their system get converted. 

 

 

That's fine I suppose.  I just wouldn't expect much in the way of results, and if it does turn out well, it'll be due to luck more than anything.  The '98 Yankees didn't outbid everyone for Stanton, Nelson and Mariano.  And when the Yankees did throw big bucks at free agent relievers, they sometimes did well with guys like Soriano, but often ended up with huge duds like Farnsworth or Steve Karsay.  

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First cuts were made today. Nobody of shock besides Edgin, although I never really expected him to make the bullpen. He's just not good. 

 

It does seem as if the Mets will only carry one lefty in Scott Rice. Besides Rice and of course Niese, there are only two lefties in camp now: John Lannan, who doesn't profile as a LOOGY nor has ever pitched out of the bullpen, and Jack Leathersich, who walked 29 batters in 29 innings in Las Vegas last season. 

 

Edit: Make it one now, Leathersich assigned to minor league camp.

Edited by nmigliore

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Rubin tweeted that Ike Davis is in a walking boot

 

He's back in NY for an MRI.  Doofus has a hamstring issue, but is supposed to be back by mid-week.  Can't make this stuff up.

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That's fine I suppose.  I just wouldn't expect much in the way of results, and if it does turn out well, it'll be due to luck more than anything.  The '98 Yankees didn't outbid everyone for Stanton, Nelson and Mariano.  And when the Yankees did throw big bucks at free agent relievers, they sometimes did well with guys like Soriano, but often ended up with huge duds like Farnsworth or Steve Karsay.  

 

Sandy decided to spend pretty big bucks on closer Frank Francisco, of all pitchers.  It went pretty badly, though the numbers from his previous two seasons showed that he should've at least been pretty good (though not a great value).   

 

Relievers definitely have a bit of a crapshoot feel to them, but so do pitchers in general.  Even sure things aren't sure things.  Sandy has been going the bottom-feeder route for a while now with relievers, hoping they exceed expectations. 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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What's happening in Atlanta and Medlen should be a lesson to Harvey and the Mets. Don't rush is back. It's not worth it.

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What's happening in Atlanta and Medlen should be a lesson to Harvey and the Mets. Don't rush is back. It's not worth it.

 

It's scary, but it's not like the Braves screwed up in his recovery. Medlen had TJS August 2010, returned for a couple relief outings in late September of 2011, and then pitched out of the bullpen before transitioning back to starter in the 2nd half of 2012. He threw 197 healthy innings in 2013. Him getting hurt again is just another cautionary tale of the attrition of pitchers, not necessarily a fault in the recovery process.

 

I do agree, however, that I don't want to see him rushed back. Unfortunately I can see it turning into a problem. I love the guy but Harvey clearly has a big ego and is already making "there will be Harvey Day 2014" proclamations. Sandy has basically shot it down and said it's a discussing for later in the season when he's further along in his recovery, but you can bet Harvey will be chomping at the bit to return this season.

 

Braves just signed Ervin Santana for 1 year. Not a huge surprise considering the injury to Medlen, Beachy being shut down, and Minor's iffy shoulder.

Edited by nmigliore

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Niese couldn't get above 86 mph yesterday.  I'm starting to feel more and more strongly like the Mets should probably not have him in their long-term plans...he's too fragile and isn't overwhelmingly good when he's healthy (though he's had some nice stretches). 

 

EDIT:  Pretty good start by Lannan today:  4 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K.  Don't know if that's a good thing.

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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It's scary, but it's not like the Braves screwed up in his recovery. Medlen had TJS August 2010, returned for a couple relief outings in late September of 2011, and then pitched out of the bullpen before transitioning back to starter in the 2nd half of 2012. He threw 197 healthy innings in 2013. Him getting hurt again is just another cautionary tale of the attrition of pitchers, not necessarily a fault in the recovery process.

 

I do agree, however, that I don't want to see him rushed back. Unfortunately I can see it turning into a problem. I love the guy but Harvey clearly has a big ego and is already making "there will be Harvey Day 2014" proclamations. Sandy has basically shot it down and said it's a discussing for later in the season when he's further along in his recovery, but you can bet Harvey will be chomping at the bit to return this season.

 

Braves just signed Ervin Santana for 1 year. Not a huge surprise considering the injury to Medlen, Beachy being shut down, and Minor's iffy shoulder.

 

you're right. Pitchers are crapshoots. With Medlen though, he's so damn small...5'9, not a horse like Harvey. Gotta wonder, maybe he just doesn't generate enough power from the rest of his body and has to overthrow.

 

This kind of move irks me. Braves IMMEDIATELY fill a need with a pretty good pitcher (though yes he's had some alternating good/bad season.) Meanwhile we are pussyfooting around with Stephen Drew for months. Braves have a hole. Filled.

Edited by '7'

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Pretty cool article by Jeff Sullivan on Wheeler's catchers not helping him gain strikes on borderline pitches last season: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/zack-wheelers-catching-and-zack-wheelers-pitching/

 

There’s no question Wheeler needs to work on his command. He’s admitted as much on multiple occasions, and it’s all about mechanical consistency. Almost everything’s about mechanical consistency, and it’s a lot easier to talk about it than it is to achieve it, but Wheeler’s a work in progress. Most pitchers are. He’s young.

 

But as long as we’re going to talk about Zack Wheeler’s performance, we need to give some consideration to the context. His command could be better. His big-league receivers could’ve been better. Wheeler spent a lot of time throwing to John Buckand Anthony Recker before Travis d’Arnaud was promoted, and last year, Buck and Recker were two of the worst pitch-receivers in baseball.

 

According to Matthew Carruth’s data, Recker was worth 1.5 strikes below average per game with the Mets. Buck was worth 1.7 strikes below average per game with the Mets. Only a small number of catchers were worse, and that allowed d’Arnaud to look like a massive improvement even though he was right on the mean.

 

I recommend reading the full thing, there's some good stuff in there, including a list of some pitchers who were very comparable to Wheeler at his age. 

 

The pitcher framing data he's referring is from StatCorner, which ranked Buck as the worst pitch framer in 2013 in terms of runs below average. On a per game basis, among catchers who caught at least 1,500 pitches, Buck ranked 6th worst while Recker ranked 9th worst. 

 

Buck is gone and in his place is d'Arnaud, who was an impressive pitch framer when he came up, by both the eye test and numbers. Recker is still here, obviously, but he's just a backup who should see no more than 50 or so games, health-willing. 

 

If Wheeler's control improves next season, part of it may be his doing, but a significant part may simply be due to the fact he has a much better receiver working with him. 

Edited by nmigliore

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