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Mike Brown

The Devils and PDO

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In a nutshell, PDO is a number when you add Even Strength SV% and Even Strength Shot%.  You can do this for individuals, but it also works for teams as well.  If a team has a PDO number above 100, that means they've gotten lucky.  Anything under 100 is usually a result of bad luck.  If you notice this chart, you'll see that the Devils are near the bottom of the league.  Meaning the Devils are in actuality better than what they've shown.

 

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I feel like this is last year all over again. Good possession team but will probably miss the playoffs again. Devils have the 6th best 5v5 score adjusted Fenwick of 53.1% but a 98.8 PDO at 5v5. Last year they had a 97.5 PDO at 5v5 and the 3rd best 5v5 score adjusted Fenwick of 55.2%. Are they better than what the results have been? Yeah, but I'm at the point where I just want results and I'm a bit tired of just saying this team is unlucky. Wish they had one more offensive difference maker in the top 6.

Thankfully they've shot at 15.5% on the PP for a lucky PDO of 113.2 this year. Of course you don't want rely on that long term but given how ugly the PP has looked at times, at least they've taken advantage of it.

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At this point it's no longer luck and has more to do with the players and system. The system generates a ton of low percentage attempts off the cycle i.e. lasers from Sal blasting shin pads into scrap metal. It looked a hell of a lot better with Parise, who thrives in this system getting in front for tips and rebounds and to a lesser extent clarkson. We also had Kovalchuk who changed the dynamic at times as a guy who can bring the puck in with speed off the breakout. We don't have either of those types right now.

It's really not the systems fault or the players. Debo is getting the absolute most from this team of spare parts. We simply don't have the horses right now. I think for us to be competitive, this is how we have to play

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What I've been saying for a few weeks now. We do everything right but finish. In the beginning of the season I used to laugh at people that said "we need a big scorer" but we just do. All of our forwards are completely competent in all three zones, they just can't score, bringing in one forward who can create offense on his own would help the team and the individuals. Can't really think of a more frustrating way to lose than the way we are this year.

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my issue with PDO also is that the worst teams are often also the worst teams in the league. you can't just say - they're low so they're unlucky.

 

buffalo, calgary, islanders, florida - these are bad teams, not unlucky teams.

 

unfortunately, the devils (last year and this year) may just be turning out to be bad teams.

 

sure their defense looks exceptional by many shot based stats. but as it's becoming more and more clear, pdb's system calls for low event hockey and that lends itself to low shots on goal in the first place.

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my issue with PDO also is that the worst teams are often also the worst teams in the league. you can't just say - they're low so they're unlucky.

 

buffalo, calgary, islanders, florida - these are bad teams, not unlucky teams.

 

unfortunately, the devils (last year and this year) may just be turning out to be bad teams.

 

sure their defense looks exceptional by many shot based stats. but as it's becoming more and more clear, pdb's system calls for low event hockey and that lends itself to low shots on goal in the first place.

 

But by the same token can you then say Toronto and Colorado are some of the best teams with their abnormally high PDO? No, they're clearly just lucky teams. Toronto has the worst coach in the sport aided by superhuman goaltending and Colorado's gotten the best out of Varlamov they're gonna get with an awful defense. 

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my issue with PDO also is that the worst teams are often also the worst teams in the league. you can't just say - they're low so they're unlucky.

 

buffalo, calgary, islanders, florida - these are bad teams, not unlucky teams.

 

unfortunately, the devils (last year and this year) may just be turning out to be bad teams.

 

sure their defense looks exceptional by many shot based stats. but as it's becoming more and more clear, pdb's system calls for low event hockey and that lends itself to low shots on goal in the first place.

 

You are putting the cart before the horse here.  Sure, Buffalo is bad, but they are probably not as bad as their PDO suggests.  We went through this in 2010-11.  Calgary and the Islanders have goaltending issues, so their PDO is affected by that - we wouldn't expect them to have a 1000 PDO.  Same with Florida to a degree - Thomas is good, but Clemmensen is awful.

 

NJ's overall shooting percentage is average and they were above average in 2012 - not convinced it's all DeBoer's system.

Edited by Triumph

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I think the case can definitely be made for Toronto and Colorado being extremely lucky teams (and probably starting to slow down now). 

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I think the case can definitely be made for Toronto and Colorado being extremely lucky teams (and probably starting to slow down now). 

 

Just when it looked like they finally were, they went 9-1-1 before Tuesday night's loss.  Go figure.   

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I have difficulty understanding how our 3 forwards Clowe, Brunner and Ryder are hot together or cold together. How does that happen?

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How are the Toronto Maples Leafs not posting a PDO score of like 400 lol

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Just when it looked like they finally were, they went 9-1-1 before Tuesday night's loss.  Go figure.   

 

Yeah haha.. I think the Olympic break will slow down both of those teams, as well as the Rangers.

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I think the case can definitely be made for Toronto and Colorado being extremely lucky teams (and probably starting to slow down now). 

 

Both Colorado and Toronto have mediocre defenses.  A lot of Avs fans will say that the Avs are overachieving, and a lot of Leafs fans will agree that their defense sucks.

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I think it's pretty established now that Toronto's true PDO is above 100.

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