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The Thread Formerly Known as The Reasons for Optimism Thread

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In past seasons, I have been the guy calling for optimism. However, we have to be rational here. We can't expect a team that has won 43% of its games this year to finish the season by winning 71% of its games. First off, our longest winning streak of the season is 3 games, which we managed to pull off once (though the streak was against the Pens, Ducks, and Kings) and we are talking November here.

Our best stretch of play this year went from Oct. 26 to Nov. 21 in which we won 8/12 or 66.7% of our games (though it should be mentioned that we won 6 of 8 inside this stretch).

Our last winning streak of 3 games or more came from Feb. 3 to Feb 10 of last year (5 games). We had one other 3 game winning streak that season.

Yes, because what's better than a one-legged Anton Volchenkov trying to block shots?

With Schneider's record this year, if he had played 60 games at this pace we'd be far from the playoffs. Not saying he isn't the guy, but that I don't really see what you're going on here in saying that this would all but guarantee us a playoff spot.

The comment about Schneider playing 60 games is the dumbest thing I've ever seen. You're kidding, right? Yes, we'd be much worse if Schneider and his pre break .928 save percentage played 60 games.

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The comment about Schneider playing 60 games is the dumbest thing I've ever seen. You're kidding, right? Yes, we'd be much worse if Schneider and his pre break .928 save percentage played 60 games.

 

I'll ignore the insult and entertain the debate. Do you even understand the point I was making? Did you read the previous posts that mine relates to? I (clearly) was stating that with the roster that JMI proposed, we wouldn't be a lock to make the playoffs just because Schneider is starting. The point of me bringing up Cory's record this year is to point out that we can still lose even if we have a great goalie. 

 

Your point about his save percentage is actually the argument against Cory being good enough to carry us (oops) - as he only had those stats, as you say: 'pre-break' (unless you believe that only the games before Feb. matter?). Anyways, I am not making that argument and think Cory will be an all-star for us. However, JasonMac saying that his proposed roster will most likely be a playoff team as long as we play Cory 60 games makes no sense and is complete speculation.

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I'll ignore the insult and entertain the debate. Do you even understand the point I was making? Did you read the previous posts that mine relates to? I (clearly) was stating that with the roster that JMI proposed, we wouldn't be a lock to make the playoffs just because Schneider is starting. The point of me bringing up Cory's record this year is to point out that we can still lose even if we have a great goalie. 

 

Your point about his save percentage is actually the argument against Cory being good enough to carry us (oops) - as he only had those stats, as you say: 'pre-break' (unless you believe that only the games before Feb. matter?). Anyways, I am not making that argument and think Cory will be an all-star for us. However, JasonMac saying that his proposed roster will most likely be a playoff team as long as we play Cory 60 games makes no sense and is complete speculation.

Where did I say NJ would be a lock making the playoffs. I said they would most certainly be in the race. You probably shouldn't assume things.

Edited by Jas0nMacIsaac

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Where did I say NJ would be a lock making the playoffs. I said they would most certainly be in the race. You probably shouldn't assume things.

 

Okay, pardon me a "lock to be in the race" then. This changes zero. I respect your opinion but I don't see where you are connecting Schneider playing 60 games with us being 'in the race," even with that roster you proposed.

 

I am not saying we wouldn't be in the race, but the justification for your lineup should not be "if Schneider plays 60 games..." when clearly we can still lose with him in net.

Edited by Neb00rs

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I'll ignore the insult and entertain the debate. Do you even understand the point I was making? Did you read the previous posts that mine relates to? I (clearly) was stating that with the roster that JMI proposed, we wouldn't be a lock to make the playoffs just because Schneider is starting. The point of me bringing up Cory's record this year is to point out that we can still lose even if we have a great goalie. 

 

Your point about his save percentage is actually the argument against Cory being good enough to carry us (oops) - as he only had those stats, as you say: 'pre-break' (unless you believe that only the games before Feb. matter?). Anyways, I am not making that argument and think Cory will be an all-star for us. However, JasonMac saying that his proposed roster will most likely be a playoff team as long as we play Cory 60 games makes no sense and is complete speculation.

Outside of the last two games where Cory got lit up, he's been dominant. If we get goaltending like that, lean on more of our younger defense as they mature, cut the dead weight, and add a top six forward with the money we'll be able to, I think we'll be in the running for the playoffs. 

 

Hell, we are this year and just about everything that could go wrong has gone wrong. 

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Personally I would sign Schneider in the offseason long term, you are most likely to get him at his cheapest after a subpar season by his standards.

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Outside of the last two games where Cory got lit up, he's been dominant. If we get goaltending like that, lean on more of our younger defense as they mature, cut the dead weight, and add a top six forward with the money we'll be able to, I think we'll be in the running for the playoffs. 

 

Hell, we are this year and just about everything that could go wrong has gone wrong. 

 

I ABSOLUTELY agree with you. But even with Cory playing like a top 5 goalie, he still has a losing record - if you map that out to 60 games, the Devils would be well under .500. My point is NOT that the losses are Cory's fault, but that if we don't make other upgrades, then Cory alone will not necessarily be enough to make us competitive. 

 

Personally I would sign Schneider in the offseason long term, you are most likely to get him at his cheapest after a subpar season by his standards.

 

+1. This is the first time I have seen this point made on the board, and quite honestly, it's a damn good one.

Edited by Neb00rs

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Except why would Schneider sign an extension when his value is at its lowest? Then you have to take into account all of the BS we put him through with Marty and I dont think it's very likely we get a deal done this off season.

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Except why would Schneider sign an extension when his value is at its lowest? Then you have to take into account all of the BS we put him through with Marty and I dont think it's very likely we get a deal done this off season.

 

If the Devils shade his pay upwards from where it 'deserves' to be based on this season.  Say you're Schneider and you're offered 8 years at 6.5M.  Yeah, you could pass, and go for a bigger offer from NJ or a 7 year offer elsewhere, but is the risk really worth the reward?  The Canadian dollar is falling and the salary cap isn't going up the way people expected (remember, the cap has to fight against the revenue split drop - even w/ all the outdoor games and so forth it's still a climb).  Then you've got the simple fact that most teams have a goalie and are pretty satisfied with their guy, so it's not like a top center where you've got 15 possible destinations.  

 

The cap on years really makes this sort of negotiation much simpler than it used to be.

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Except why would Schneider sign an extension when his value is at its lowest? Then you have to take into account all of the BS we put him through with Marty and I dont think it's very likely we get a deal done this off season.

 

Nor would it be prudent from the Devils' side to throw the money at him it would take to sign him when he's never been the guy for 60+ games and playoffs, there've been signs lately he might not be up to being the guy going forward.

Outside of the last two games where Cory got lit up, he's been dominant. If we get goaltending like that, lean on more of our younger defense as they mature, cut the dead weight, and add a top six forward with the money we'll be able to, I think we'll be in the running for the playoffs. 

 

Hell, we are this year and just about everything that could go wrong has gone wrong. 

 

What would really be the difference in record if Cory had played the majority of Marty's games?  Marty's like five games over .500, could you really expect Cory to be ten over .500 in those games when his 'dominant' goaltending hasn't led to wins?  Especially since the offense hasn't functioned for Cory the same way it has for Marty this season.

Edited by NJDevs4978

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Nor would it be prudent from the Devils' side to throw the money at him it would take to sign him when he's never been the guy for 60+ games and playoffs, there've been signs lately he might not be up to being the guy going forward.

 

Schneider's lifetime SV% is .924 over 134 games - I'd love to see something similar in Brodeur's career.  I bet there are only 1 or 2 stretches in his career where he's done better.

 

 

What would really be the difference in record if Cory had played the majority of Marty's games?  Marty's like five games over .500, could you really expect Cory to be ten over .500 in those games when his 'dominant' goaltending hasn't led to wins?  Especially since the offense hasn't functioned for Cory the same way it has for Marty this season.

 

Do you honestly think that his question assumes that Cory has angered the hockey gods and gets 1.5 goals/game of goal support from now unto eternity?  No, he assumes that this is a giant fluke (which it is) and that Schneider gets normal goal support and plays well and gets wins.

Edited by Triumph

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Schneider's lifetime SV% is .924 over 134 games - I'd love to see something similar in Brodeur's career.  I bet there are only 1 or 2 stretches in his career where he's done better.

 

 

 

Do you honestly think that his question assumes that Cory has angered the hockey gods and gets 1.5 goals/game of goal support from now unto eternity?  No, he assumes that this is a giant fluke (which it is) and that Schneider gets normal goal support and plays well and gets wins.

 

Most of that save percentage is with Vancouver, who had the nameless Eddie Lack at .920+ before they blew up this year and Luongo with good numbers as well.  Thirty-game samples over multiple seasons do not equal 55-60 plus playoffs in one season.

 

And even when he's gotten more goal support post-Olympics he hasn't won.  Start winning some games please, I'm tired of defending the guy when he continually comes up short.

Edited by NJDevs4978

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Most of that save percentage is with Vancouver, who had the nameless Eddie Lack at .920+ before they blew up this year and Luongo with good numbers as well.  Thirty-game samples over multiple seasons do not equal 55-60 plus playoffs in one season.

 

And even when he's gotten more goal support post-Olympics he hasn't won.  Start winning some games please, I'm tired of defending the guy when he continually comes up short.

 

Eddie Lack put up two excellent seasons in the AHL before this year.

 

I actually put more weight in what Schneider did for 3 seasons over one good 55-60 game season. I mean we aren't talking about Andrew Raycroft anymore. When you show you are this good in 35-40 games over a while, I don't have many doubts. I'm sure Boston was panicking when Thomas took the year off last year because Rask hadn't shown his brilliant play over one full season.

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Most of that save percentage is with Vancouver, who had the nameless Eddie Lack at .920+ before they blew up this year and Luongo with good numbers as well.  Thirty-game samples over multiple seasons do not equal 55-60 plus playoffs in one season.

 

And even when he's gotten more goal support post-Olympics he hasn't won.  Start winning some games please, I'm tired of defending the guy when he continually comes up short.

 

Eddie Lack has played 31 NHL games.  Do you understand how rare it is for anyone to put up a .924 SV% over a single season?  Much less over 130 games?

 

If you're putting the Detroit and Florida games on him you're out of your mind - he gave up bad goals in both games, sure, but the defense completely fell apart on him.  He has to play better than he did in both of those games, no doubt, but just saying 'oh he got goal support he should win' - how many times has Brodeur not win with goal support (hint:  it's still quite a lot)

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http://espn.go.com/nhl/playoffs/matchups

 

According to this page, the Devils have the lowest percentage of quality teams left to face in their schedule.  They define a quality team as a team that has more points than games played aka better than NHL .500.

 

Rangers: 9 of 13 (69%)

Canadiens: 10 of 13 (77%)

Maple Leafs: 11 of 13 (85%)

Lightning: 12 of 15 (80%)

Flyers: 12 of 16 (75%)

Columbus: 10 of 15 (67%)

Washington: 10 of 13 (77%)

Detroit: 12 of 15 (80%)

New Jersey: 8 of 14 (57%)

Ottawa: 10 of 16 (63%)

Carolina: 14 of 17 (82%)

 

Add in the fact that most of their games are at home, and you have a scenario that helps the Devils chances at getting the 10 wins needed to make the playoffs.  10-3-1 is really all they need to do.  That's not too outlandish.  10-4-0 might be enough too.  10-4-0 gives the Devils a 71.4% chance at making it. http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Metropolitan/NewJersey.html

Edited by Mike Brown

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http://espn.go.com/nhl/playoffs/matchups

 

According to this page, the Devils have the lowest percentage of quality teams left to face in their schedule.  They define a quality team as a team that has more points than games played aka better than NHL .500.

 

Rangers: 9 of 13 (69%)

Canadiens: 10 of 13 (77%)

Maple Leafs: 11 of 13 (85%)

Lightning: 12 of 15 (80%)

Flyers: 12 of 16 (75%)

Columbus: 10 of 15 (67%)

Washington: 10 of 13 (77%)

Detroit: 12 of 15 (80%)

New Jersey: 8 of 14 (57%)

Ottawa: 10 of 16 (63%)

Carolina: 14 of 17 (82%)

 

Add in the fact that most of their games are at home, and you have a scenario that helps the Devils chances at getting the 10 wins needed to make the playoffs.  10-3-1 is really all they need to do.  That's not too outlandish.  10-4-0 might be enough too.  10-4-0 gives the Devils a 71.4% chance at making it. http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Metropolitan/NewJersey.html

How many posts have you posted this season?

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http://espn.go.com/nhl/playoffs/matchups

 

According to this page, the Devils have the lowest percentage of quality teams left to face in their schedule.  They define a quality team as a team that has more points than games played aka better than NHL .500.

 

Rangers: 9 of 13 (69%)

Canadiens: 10 of 13 (77%)

Maple Leafs: 11 of 13 (85%)

Lightning: 12 of 15 (80%)

Flyers: 12 of 16 (75%)

Columbus: 10 of 15 (67%)

Washington: 10 of 13 (77%)

Detroit: 12 of 15 (80%)

New Jersey: 8 of 14 (57%)

Ottawa: 10 of 16 (63%)

Carolina: 14 of 17 (82%)

 

Add in the fact that most of their games are at home, and you have a scenario that helps the Devils chances at getting the 10 wins needed to make the playoffs.  10-3-1 is really all they need to do.  That's not too outlandish.  10-4-0 might be enough too.  10-4-0 gives the Devils a 71.4% chance at making it. http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Metropolitan/NewJersey.html

 

Except the Devils seem to sh!t the bed whenever they have the chance to get some momentum or make some headway in the standings.  If they won both games their would be reasons for optimism.  But no, they sh!t the bed in two games they should have won.  My optimism went out the window this past weekend.

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http://espn.go.com/nhl/playoffs/matchups

 

According to this page, the Devils have the lowest percentage of quality teams left to face in their schedule.  They define a quality team as a team that has more points than games played aka better than NHL .500.

 

Rangers: 9 of 13 (69%)

Canadiens: 10 of 13 (77%)

Maple Leafs: 11 of 13 (85%)

Lightning: 12 of 15 (80%)

Flyers: 12 of 16 (75%)

Columbus: 10 of 15 (67%)

Washington: 10 of 13 (77%)

Detroit: 12 of 15 (80%)

New Jersey: 8 of 14 (57%)

Ottawa: 10 of 16 (63%)

Carolina: 14 of 17 (82%)

 

Add in the fact that most of their games are at home, and you have a scenario that helps the Devils chances at getting the 10 wins needed to make the playoffs.  10-3-1 is really all they need to do.  That's not too outlandish.  10-4-0 might be enough too.  10-4-0 gives the Devils a 71.4% chance at making it. http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Metropolitan/NewJersey.html

are the panthers a quality team??

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There's optimism, and there's delusion.    Expecting this squad to now finish the year on a 10-4 pace is  _________ .

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There's optimism, and there's delusion.    Expecting this squad to now finish the year on a 10-4 pace is  _________ .

 

Delusional.  That would require a 3 game win streak or two, something that the team hasn't done all year.

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This is crazy. 10-4?

 

The Devils are about to play Boston, Minnesota, and NYR

 

they will be lucky to get 1 point out of those games

 

Anybody who watched Friday night knows this teams spine was broke and their spirit crushed. This is not something that can be measured with corsiwick. You have to see it with your own eyes.

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We'll know for sure what kind of chance this team really has after this 5-game homestand.  Anything less than 7 points and they're toast.  All we really have now is to hope that somehow it takes less points (something like 89 or 90) to get in.  Of course, that requires a lot of help from other teams, and usually when you're in that position, you're pretty screwed. 

 

MB, you have to stop making it sound like going 10-3-1 or 10-4 isn't a big deal and is somehow easily doable.  For one thing, the hell with who's on the schedule...with their season on the line, this team couldn't beat the friggin' Panthers, and there's no teams that can be penciled in as "easy" wins for this bunch.  For another, this team is three games over NHL-.500 and is 7-7-2 in their last 16.  To go 6 or 7 games over a 14-game stretch, when the only ability this team has shown is to be maddeningly inconsistent, would be a major accomplishment for this team.  The Devils have had several chances to get their acts together and take big steps forward, but they don't ever seem to get over the hump.    

 

The one and maybe ONLY thing they have going for them right now is that they get five straight home games.  We'll find out soon enough if that makes any difference. 

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This is crazy. 10-4?

 

The Devils are about to play Boston, Minnesota, and NYR

 

they will be lucky to get 1 point out of those games

 

Anybody who watched Friday night knows this teams spine was broke and their spirit crushed. This is not something that can be measured with corsiwick. You have to see it with your own eyes.

Meh, a win against Boston (who will be on a back to back) will surely give the team confidence.  Even if they do win tomorrow, it's still a bit of a long shot, but one thing this team does do well is fight.  They give it their all and I expect them to go down swinging

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http://espn.go.com/nhl/playoffs/matchups

 

According to this page, the Devils have the lowest percentage of quality teams left to face in their schedule.  They define a quality team as a team that has more points than games played aka better than NHL .500.

 

Rangers: 9 of 13 (69%)

Canadiens: 10 of 13 (77%)

Maple Leafs: 11 of 13 (85%)

Lightning: 12 of 15 (80%)

Flyers: 12 of 16 (75%)

Columbus: 10 of 15 (67%)

Washington: 10 of 13 (77%)

Detroit: 12 of 15 (80%)

New Jersey: 8 of 14 (57%)

Ottawa: 10 of 16 (63%)

Carolina: 14 of 17 (82%)

 

Add in the fact that most of their games are at home, and you have a scenario that helps the Devils chances at getting the 10 wins needed to make the playoffs.  10-3-1 is really all they need to do.  That's not too outlandish.  10-4-0 might be enough too.  10-4-0 gives the Devils a 71.4% chance at making it. http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Metropolitan/NewJersey.html

 

You act is if the quality of the team has any effect on the Devils. They have proven to blow it against teams of any level. How in the hell is 10-3-1 NOT too outlandish? It's borderline insane to think this team, with 14 games to go, suddenly decides to play hockey.

 

Don't get me wrong... I'm a fan and I'll be watching every game and hoping for the best, but 10-3-1 and very outlandish with what they've done so far.

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